HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Corn, 1 Higher; Soybeans, 1-3 Lower; Wheat, Fractionally Higher
· Carry-over from yesterday’s sell-off has most overseas markets lower. Today’s focus will be on October non-farm payroll data with the government shut-down likely to skew the data. EU trading in the wee hours finds the FTSE, DAX and CAC 40 all down ½ to .8%. Asia ended weaker with the Nikkei and Kospi both off 1% and Shanghai lost 1.1%. However, US indices may rebound a little with S&P futures up 2.75 points; Dow, 6 higher and the Nasdaq, +9 ½. Crude is only slightly weaker; gold is a dime higher, $1.308.60/oz and the $ Index is trading near the 81 level, up .091 points
· T-storm Weather notes that mainly dry weather improves conditions for U.S. corn and soybean harvesting and cattle grazing over the next five days. A large-scale pattern change likely begins Tuesday and continues later next week, which makes for a very difficult forecast. The potential for a notably colder pattern exists (which would also keep best rain and snow chances away from corn and cattle). The main point remains that a major storm system is not imminent for next week
· Dec Corn Up $.0125 at $4.2175; Mar Corn Up $.0125 at $4.3275. Fund activity was evenon Thursday
· Nov SB Down $.0125 at $12.7750; Jan SB Down $.0275 at $12.6375. Funds bought 8 K SB, 6 K SBM and sold 5 K SBO
· Dec Wheat Up $.0075 at $6.5375; Mar Wheat Up $.0075 at $6.6450. Funds were even yesterday, ahead of the report
CORN/SORGHUM
· December 2013 corn futures traded to $4.20 on Thursday, the lowest price for the contract since Aug. 12, 2010
· USDA report 11:00 CST: Average trade estimate for U.S. corn production is 14.003Bbu vs. 13.843 in September
· USDA report 11:00 CST: Average trade estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is 2.029Bbu vs. 1.855 in September
· USDA report 11:00 CST: Average trade estimate for world corn ending stocks is 154.8 MMT vs. 151.4 in September
· ATI Research: Year-to-date corn export sales are 876mbu, which is more than double last year’s 436 and a 5-year high
· T-storm Weather: Widespread thunderstorms in key corn areas of Argentina Saturday-Sunday; corn planting slows and stops from 1.50”-3.00” amounts
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA report 11:00 CST: Average trade estimate for U.S. soybean production is 3.221Bbu vs. 3.149 in September
· USDA report 11:00 CST: Average trade estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks is 172mbu vs. 150 in September
· USDA report 11:00 CST: Average trade estimate for world soybean ending stocks is 72.7 MMT vs. 71.5 in September
· Soyoil futures pressured Thursday by news the FDA is proposing to ban transfats in the American diet, which would severely limit and in most cases prevent the use of hydrogenated soyoil
· ATI Research: Year-to-date soybean sales are 1.222Bbu--up 28% from last year and a record for this time of year
· USDA report 11:00 CST: Reduction in Argentina 13/14 wheat crop likely; downward revision for 12/13 also possible
· USDA report 11:00 CST: Average trade estimate for U.S. wheat ending stocks is 529mbu vs. 561 in September
· USDA report 11:00 CST: Average trade estimate for world wheat ending stocks is 175.5 MMT vs. 176.3 in September
ENERGY
· Energy markets: crude slightly lower, QCLZ13,-$0.09 at $94.11; QRBZ, +$0.0068; QNGZ, +$.053 and QHOZ, +$.0038
· Rebound was finally seen in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago and Gulf were up 4; Dallas and Tampa gained 7; NY was 5 ½ firmer; and LA was 6 higher at $1.95 ½ per gallon
· Weaker pattern in RINs: 2012’s down 1 ¼ at 26-28 ½; 2013’s also off 1 ¼ at 27-29 ½; & 2014’s down 1 to 29-30
· The December RBOB/December ethanol spread narrowed in $.0729 to $.8681 per gallon Thursday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Light cash cattle trading occurred late yesterday afternoon at mostly $131, down $1 from last week
· Choice boxed beef values lost 57-cents yesterday and have declined $1.57 over the last three days
· After falling $1.58 over the previous two days, the USDA pork carcass cutout value rebounded $1.05 yesterday
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained $1.13 yesterday to $81.99
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather