HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend—Corn, 1-2 Lower; Soybeans, Down 7-9; Wheat, 1-3 Lower.   

·         Most overseas markets are higher this morning, aided by the release of a Federal Reserve survey showing all regions of the U.S. came through with moderate economic growth July and August. Also, the Institute for Supply Mgmt said August U.S. factory production was at a 2-year high.  Traders will also be looking ahead to tomorrow’s jobs report which is expected to come in at 177 K with unemployment steady at 7.4%.  U.S. stock futures are currently mixed:  Nasdaq, +2.25; S&P, - ¼ and Dow, -7.  Oil is 60 cents higher; gold is up $5.90 at $1,395/50/oz and the $ Index is steady at 82.205

·         The possibility of temperatures turning colder is not an issue in the 15-day prognosis, as readings in the Central Belt will remain mostly above normal, accelerating crop maturity but at the same time raising ear and pod fill concerns.   Little in the way of rainfall is anticipated over the next 7 days.  In the N Plains, spring wheat harvest conditions will continue favorable but there is chance for t-storms to develop by the weekend.  The Central/Southern Plains will remain hot and dry, causing some concern for early planted wheat.  N/AB temps and BN rainfall should accelerate harvest in the Delta

·         Sep Corn Dn $.01 at $4.93; Dec Corn Dn $.0175 at $4.6775. Funds liquidated another 7 K yesterday

·         Sep Soybeans Dn $.09 at $13.8875; Nov SB Dn $.0725 at $13.4525.  Funds sold 12 K SB, 9 K SBM, 4 K SBO

·         Sep Wheat Dn $.03 at $6.3125; Dec Wheat Dn $.0125 at $6.45.  Funds were even in Wednesday’s trade

CORN/SORGHUM

·         T-storm Weather: Temperatures fluctuate through 7-10 days.  For the short-term, areas of heat persist across the southwest third to half of corn producing areas for several days beginning Friday-Saturday

·         Corn dough for week ending Sept. 8 likely to be 90-95% vs. last year’s 99% & the avg. of 95%

·         Corn dent for week ending Sept. 8 likely to be 55-60%, which is well below last year’s 92% and the average of 76%

·         Corn mature for week ending Sept. 8 likely to be 10-15%, which is well below last year’s 56% and the average of 28%

·         ATI Research: For now, we are using 325-350mbu for Sept-Nov U.S. corn exports with a watchful eye on China

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         T-storm Weather: A lack of humidity and unfavorable low-level wind setup preclude high coverage of significant amounts of rain for soybean areas over the next 5 days.  Better rain chances for northern areasSunday-Tuesday

·         Soybeans setting pods for week end Sept. 8 likely to be 95-98 vs. last year’s 99% & the 98% avg.

·         ATI Research: Tight soybean supplies during September are expected to limit total Sept-Nov U.S. exports to 525mbu

·         T-storm Weather: Unfavorably dry weather continues for Argentina wheat through at least Fri.  A few thunderstorms unfold Fri. night through Sat., but highest amounts are not likely to be seen in key southern areas of Buenos Aires

·         ATI Research: U.S. Sept-Nov U.S. wheat exports projected at 275mbu, up nearly 40% from a year ago

ENERGY

·         Energy markets are mixed:  QCLV13 up $.60 at $107.83;  QRBV, -.0041; QNGV,-$.001 and QHOV, +$.0083

·         EAI stocks estimates:   trade expects crude to be down 200 K bl; gasoline, 600 K lower and distillates, up 200 K

·         Wide disparity in the cash ethanol markets: LA 13 ½ lower; NY down 11 and Tampa/Dallas 9 cents lower.  Chicago fell a more modest 2 ½ cents, quoted in a wide $2.48 ½ to $2.69 range and the Gulf was actually reported up 1 ½ cents

·         RINs: 2012’s were fractionally higher to 70-72 cents; 2013’s gained 3/8’s of a cent to 71-73 and 2014’s were 71-74 

·         The spread between October RBOB/ethanol tugged in 1.27 cents to $.9668 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     &nbs​p;                        ​;             

·   &nbs​p;     Choice boxed beef values firmed 46-cents yesterday and have gained 89-cents over the last two days

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value firmed 9-cents yesterday and has gained 56-cents over the last two days

·         The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained $1.08 yesterday to $90.38

·         Broiler egg set last week was up 4.6% from LY, chick placements increase 1.1% from LY

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather