HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Corn, 1-2 Higher; Soybeans, Up 6-7; Wheat, 5-6 Higher
· Stocks remain lower amid ongoing concerns about the U.S. government shutdown. There is more of a mixed tone overseas with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan moving 1% higher. European shares also edged slightly higher while there was also an upbeat survey on China’s huge services sector. Dow futures are 30 points lower; the S&P is off nearly 5; and the Nasdaq is down 4. The dollar index remained weak at 79.955, down 0.034. Gold is $13 lower with oil fractionally weaker
· T-storm Weather notes a powerful and slow-moving system brings rain and t-storms to much of the central U.S. through Sunday. Wheat planting and corn / soybean harvesting slow and stop from the central / northern Plains through the northern Corn Belt due to very heavy rainfall of 1.25” – 2.50” (including a small swath of heavy and wet snow far west) beginning today and then recurring Friday-Saturday, while areas to the south and east receive generalized amounts of 0.50” – 1.00” from a few t-storms Thursday and againSaturday-Sunday. Sharply colder weather briefly follows the exit of the system, which focuses frosts and freezes in the central / northern Plains this weekend. In South America, scattered t-storms occasionally dot Brazil to improve soil moisture for planting. However, mainly dry weather dominates in Argentina for at least one more week to limit corn planting
· Dec Corn Up $.0225 at $4.4125; Mar Corn Up $.0225 at $4.54.
· Nov Soybeans Up $.0775 at $12.815; Jan SB Up $.0575 at $12.815.
· Dec Wheat Up $.05 at $6.91; Mar Wheat Up $.05 at $6.9875.
CORN/SORGHUM
· Due to the ongoing Federal government shutdown, the USDA will not release the Export Sales report this morning. In addition, there are doubts about the scheduled release on Oct. 11 of the USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports
· Private firms pegging U.S. corn crop at 13.9-14.1Bbu
· EIA report released Wed. pegs ethanol production at 875 thou barrels, up 43 thou vs. last week & 11% above last year
· T-storm Weather: Corn planting is likely to remain sluggish in Argentina until heavy rain arrives in western growing areas. Driest areas are forecast to remain mostly dry through 7-10 days
· Most early corn yield reports continue to run better-than-expected, notably in Illinois
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Private firms pegging U.S. soybean crop at 3.160-3.185Bbu
· Yield reports for soybeans are showing quite a bit of variability but in general have tended to better-than-expected
· Producers in northwest Corn Belt are aggressively harvesting soybeans ahead of forecasted heavy rainfall
· T-storm Weather notes that widespread rainfall of 1.25”-2.50” in most areas of Brazil is the first sign of the rainy season that usually begins in October
· There are growing indications that Argentina’s wheat crop is smaller than the most recent USDA est of 12.0mmt
· Planting of HRW wheat in some areas of western Kansas has been delayed by wet field conditions
ENERGY
· Energy markets are mixed: QCLX13, -$0.19 to $103.92; QRBX, +0.0177; QNGX, -$.002 and QHOX, +$.0129
· Cash ethanol markets were sharply lower again on Wednesday: Chicago was off 23 ¼ cents; NY down 10 ½ cents; Gulf 15 lower; Dallas off 9; and Tampa 5 ½ lower at $2.24 per gallon
· RINs, lower: 2012’s down 2 ½ cents to 36-45; 2013’s 3 lower to 38-46 and 2014’s weaker by 3 ½ to 38-46 ½
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
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· Cattle futures firmed yesterday as traders wait for this week’s cash cattle trade to develop
· Cash cattle markets remain quiet with feedyards asking $128 while packers bid $123. Cattle traded LW at $126
· Hog futures rebounded modestly yesterday after large losses the previous two days due to Friday’s Hogs & Pigs report
· USDA cash livestock and meat values are not available due to the government shutdown
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com