HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Corn, 1-2 Higher; Soybeans, 4-5 Lower; Wheat, 2-3 Higher
· A mini rebound is being seen in stocks this morning following the recent steep decline. The government’s monthly jobs report, originally scheduled to be released Friday morning, will not be available due to the shutdown. Elsewhere, European markets were mixed in morning trading while major Asian markets ended with losses including a nearly 1% decline in the Nikkei. Dow futures are 27 points higher; the S&P is up 4; and the Nasdaq is up 9. Gold is down $0.50, while oil is $0.36 higher. The dollar index is slightly firmer at 80.045, up 0.209.
· T-storm Weather notes a powerful system develops areas of rain and t-storms across the central U.S. through Saturday-Sunday; highest coverage affects the northern third to half of corn and soybeans. Heavy snow with frosts and freezes occur in western areas of the central / northern Plains, but to the west of most corn and soybeans. Sharp warming follows next week as unusual mildness recurs; a low chance for rain develops in around one week as another system slides eastward. In South America, unfavorable dryness continues in driest areas of Argentina for at least 5-7 days, but a warmer pattern unfolds through next week to aid wheat growth and eventually help some t-storms to form around next Thursday; this event will be monitored.
· Dec Corn Up $.0175 at $4.41; Mar Corn Up $.0175 at $4.5375
· Nov Soybeans Down $.0475 at $12.835; Jan SB Down $.0475 at $12.8425.
· Dec Wheat Up $.0225 at $6.915; Mar Wheat Up $.03 at $7.00.
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA is scheduled to release its WASDE and Crop Production reports one week from today but that is in doubt due to the ongoing Federal government shutdown
· T-storm Weather: Substantial dryness persists for around 50% of usual Argentina corn production
· ATI Research: Year-to-date U.S. corn export sales as of Sept. 19 were 546mbu, a near 150 million increase (37%) over last year and the unshipped total is 55% greater at 500 million
· ATI Research: USDA Grain Stocks report showed U.S. on-farm inventories accounted for 33.4% of the Sept. 1 total vs. the 5-year avg. of 31.0% and last year’s 31.7% figure
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Widespread rainfall this weekend across the Midwest likely to delay additional soybean harvesting
· Soybean yields are variable but still trending on the higher-than-expected side
· ATI Research: This year’s unshipped export sales total for soybean meal as of Sept. 19 continues to suggest a robust October-December export program and should run only a little short of the 3.1 MMT totals seen in 2009 and 2012
· WZ3 wheat futures traded to $6.98 on Thursday, which is the highest prices since July 12
· T-storm Weather: Heavy snow with frosts and freezes occur in western areas of central Plains this weekend, including some HRW wheat
ENERGY
· Energy markets are mixed: QCLX13, +$0.39 to $103.70; QRBX, +0.0019; QNGX, -$.002 and QHOX, +$.0078
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Thursday following sharp losses earlier in the week: Chicago was up 4 cents; NY unchanged; Gulf 3 ¾ higher; Dallas off 1 ¾; and Tampa 2 ¼ lower at $2.21 ¾ per gallon
· RINs, lower: 2012’s down 4 cents to 33-40; 2013’s 4 ¾ lower to 35-39 ½ and 2014’s weaker by 3 ¾ to 35-42
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Cattle futures ended mixed yesterday after cash cattle started trading at steady prices
· Light to moderate cash cattle trading developed yesterday afternoon at mostly $126, steady with last week
· Hog futures rebounded for a 2nd day yesterday on profit taking and technical buying after large losses early this week
· USDA cash livestock and meat values are not available due to the government shutdown
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com