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MARKET TREND CK, Unchanged, SK, Up 4, WK, Up 1, KWK, Up 1

March 18, 2016 07:09 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND:  CK, Up $.0050;  SK, Up $.04; WK, Up $.01;  KWK, Up $.0050

·        Fed remarks, recent $ weakness, higher oil prices all servng to boost most equity markets. ASIA:  Shanghia finished up 1.72%; the Hang Seng was .82% higher while the yen’s strength trimmed 1.25% from the Nikkei.  EUROPE:  Off to a shaky start but currently trading from .21% (CAC, CAC) to .45% (FTSE)) higher.  U.S.:  Futures are higher:  DOW, +45; NAS, +8 ¾; S&P, +5 ½. EXTERNALS: $ Index is a little firmer, +$.274 @ 95.125; Gold is down $9.90 @ $1,255.60 and April WTI is up $.50+

·        Weather: Below normal temps impact U.S. HRW wheat in Central/Southern Plains today through Sunday, with coldest readings likely on Saturday.  Temps return to above normal by Monday and much above normal by Wednesday.  Light to locally moderate rain is possible today followed by dry weather into mid-week.  Light rain is possible across the Delta today and Saturday with near normal temps.  In South America, mostly dry weather or only isolated showers impact recently planted safrinha (double crop) corn in northern Brazil today throughSaturday, while locally heavy rain in Argentina today slows corn harvest  

·        CK, Up $.0050 @ $3.69;  CN, Up $.0050 @ $3.7350.    The funds bought 2 Kon Thursday   

·        SK, Up $.04 @ $9.0175; SN, Up $.04 @ $9.08.  Funds: bought 5 K SB; sold 1 K SBM & bought 5 K SBO

·        WK, Up $.01 @ $4.6350;  WN, Up $.0075 @ $4.7075.  The funds sold 5 K yesterday

CORN/SORGHUM                                    ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales have been increasingly noticeably of late; e.g. old-crop sales the past 4 weeks  averaged 44 mbu per week—2nd only to 45 in the spring of 2006.  This usually portends a pick-up in export inspections

·        ATI Research: U.S. sorghum export sales week end Mar 10; 370,000 bu: Year-to-date sales, 254 mbu, -20% v. last year

·        May 2016 corn futures on Thursday traded to $3.72, which is the highest price for the contract since Feb. 23

·        National Weather Service (NWS) Thursday forecast above normal precip in April for southern half of Midwest; equal chances of above or below normal for northern Midwest/N Plains; below normal for most of Minnesota & Wisconsin

·        NWS forecast equal chances of above or below normal temperatures for the majority of the Midwest in April

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        ATI Research: U.S. soybean export sales the past month have been decent.  Exports during the same period, however, are 2nd best pace in over 20 years; as a result, bias is USDA’s export forecast of 1.690 bbu is not that far off the mark

·        Consultant: First soybeans in Argentina will probably start to be harvested next week; crop prospects remain good

·        ATI Research: U.S. export sales of all wheat for the week ending March 10 of 7.8 mbu were down 36% from the previous week and 35% from the prior 4-week average.  Year-to-date sales are 682 mbu vs. 832 last year (-18%)

·        NWS is forecasting above to much above normal precip during April for all U.S. HRW wheat from Nebraska south

ENERGY

·        Higher:   CLJ16, +$0.55, $40.75; EBK, +$0.37; EBK-CLK, +$1.180, -$.16; RBJ, +$.0089; NGJ, +0.005;  HOJ, +$.0055

·        A mixed trend persisted in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago gained 7/8; New York added 1; Gulf eased ¼; Tampa was unchanged; Dallas increased ½; and LA was steady at $1.55 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs firmed: 2014’s gained ½ to 72-73; 2015’s up ½ to 72-73; and 2016’s added ¾ to 72-73

·        The April RBOB/April Ethanol inverse eased $.0090 per gallon to -$.0057yesterday         

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY          &nb​sp;             &nbs​p;                        ​;    

· &nbs​p;      Choice boxed beef values gained 72-cents on Thursday, and at $234.64 are at the highest level since Jan. 14

·        Dressed steer weight for week end March 5: 888 lbs., up 1 pound v. last week, 890.75 for 4-week avg. & 876 last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined 76-cents Thu., & at $75.46 is down 68-cents vs. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index was steady at $66.78.  April futures were unchanged and remain $4.52 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP

 



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