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MARKET TREND CK, Steady, SK, Down 3, WK, Down 1

March 24, 2016 07:12 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND:  CK, Steady; SK, Down $.0125; WK, Down $.0150;  KWK, Down $.01

·        Weaker commodity prices and $ gains are weighing on most global equity markets today. ASIA: Shanghia lost 1.6%; the Hang Seng, off 1.3% and the Nikkei edged .64% lower. EUROPE: weaker with both the DAX & FTSE down 1.23-1.24%;  the CAC 40 is 1.65% lower.  U.S. Pre-Markets: in the red with DOW futures 77 lower; S&P, down 10 ¼ and the NAS, off 24 3/4. STL Fed Head Bullard to speak again today, suggested rate hike as early as April on Wed.EXTERNALS: $ Index, +1/4; Gold, -$4.60; Crude, -$.82

·        T-storm Weather: Heavy rain and snow affect northeast Colorado, Nebraska, and the northern third to half of the Corn Belt today, and significant rainfall also affects the eastern half of the Corn Belt when thunderstorms form today.  Outside of some rain within Saturday-Monday in the eastern Corn Belt and Delta, the next system of significance passes later next week (next Wednesday-Friday) when a round of heavy rainfall is probable.  A brief cold snap late next week maintains the probability for at least some frosts and freezes in the HRW wheat belt; coldest north of jointed wheat

·        CK, Steady @ $3.6850;  CN, Down $.0025 @ $3.73.  The funds sold 2 K at mid-week       

·        SK, Down $.0125 @ $9.04; SN, Down $.0125 @ $9.11.   Fund sold 2 K SB; bought 1 K SBM and sold 4 K SBO

·        WK, Down $.0150@ $4.6150;  WN, Down $.0175 @ $4.69.  The funds were estimated to have sold 2 K yesterday   

CORN/SORGHUM                                   ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                                                

·        Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 35-43 mbu for 15/16 corn

·        ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. corn export sales are increasing counter-seasonally, which typically suggests a pick-up in the pace of inspections.  The worst case scenario points to solid demand for U.S. corn through the end of June

·        Consultant: Argentina corn yields are very good, but they are not quite as exceptional as the early soybean yields.  The reason is that were some areas that experienced temporary hot and dry conditions during pollination

·        Ethanol grind: 995,000 barrels/day for week end March 18—down 0.4% vs. last week but 4.4% higher vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 15-22 mbu for 15/16 soybeans; soymeal, 50-200 K MT; and soyoil, 7-20 K MT

·        ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soymeal exports est. at 200-220 K MT per week v. 285 last year & the 5-year avg. of 218

·        November 2016 soybean futures Wed. closed at $9.17 ¼; one year ago, November 2015 contract settled at $9.57 ¼

·        Consultant: Estimate of Brazil soybean production was left unchanged this week at 100.0 MMT

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 6-13 mbu for 15/16 all wheat and 3-9 mbu for 16/17

·        T-storm Weather: Despite windy temperature fluctuations over the next week, driest U.S. HRW wheat areas from central Kansas and points south generally remain dry

ENERGY

·        Weaker:   CLK16, -$0.84, $38.95; EBK, -$0.71; EBK-CLK, +$0.82, +$.14; RBK, -$.0170; NGK, -$0.002;  HOK, -$.0135

·        Cash ethanol markets were decidedly stronger:  New York soared 7 ½; the Gulf was 6 ¼ higher; LA moved up 2 ¾ to $1.5475; Tampa gained 1 ½ and Dallas, 2 ½.  Chicago ended the day 3 ¼ higher at $1.36 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs eased: 2014’s  off 1/8 to 72 ¾- 73 ¼; 2015’s down ¼ to $72 ¾-73 ¼; and 2016’s, down ¼ to 72 ¾- 73 ¼

·        The carry in the April RBOB/April Ethanol spread gave u $.0660, falling to +$.04510on Wednesday             

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY      &nb​sp;             &nbs​p;                                

​ ·        On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values were down $1.73 and at $226.18 are $7.74 lower vs. a week ago

·        Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report Fri: Avg. trade est, all hogs and pigs, 100.3%; breeding, 100.6%, market, 100.2%.

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 55-cents higher Wednesday, and at $76.63 is up 41-cents vs. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.11 to $65.89.  April futures were $0.475 lower but are still $3.785 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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