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MARKET TREND CK, Down 3, SK, Down 5, WK, Down 3,

April 14, 2016 08:29 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND:  CK, Down $.0250; SK, Down $.0525; WK, Down $.0175; KWK, Down $.0175

·        Improving Chinese trade #’s & an easing of Singapore’s monetary stance propelled ASIA higher:  Nikkei, +.3.2%; Shanghai, +.5% and the Hang Seng, also up .5%.  EUROPE:  Mixed as oil eases, earnings season ahead; DAX, +.07%; CAC 40, -.07%; FTSE, -.04%.  U.S. Pre-Markets are mixed with DOW futures up 5; the S&P 500 is ¼ point lower and the NASDAQ, off 0.75.  EXTERNALS:  the $ Index is up .185 @ 95.04; May Gold futures are $6.80 lower @ $1,240.70 and May WTI is up $.05 @ $41.82

·        T-storm Weather: Except for showers in the Delta today, the Corn Belt & Delta stay dry into at least Mon. as temps moderate to near & slightly above-normal.  Dry weather also occurs in the Plains until a large system stalls to the immediate west, causing an influx of tropical air from the Gulf of Mexico, & resulting in heavy rain with 1.00"-3.00" common across the entire HRW wheat belt Sat.-Tue.  The system moves east Mon.-Tue. forward, likely generating some rain in the Delta & western/ southern Corn Belt, but a large high to the east limits rain chances with eastward extent through the Corn Belt, while keeping temps near-normal

·        CK, Down $.0250 @ $3.71; CN, Down $.0250 @ $3.7450.  Big fund buying, a total of 25 K at mid-week

·        SK, Down $.0525 @ $9.5050; SN, Down $.0575 @ $9.5875.   Huge buying:  20 K K SB; 9 K SMB and 3 K SBO

·        WK, Down $.0175 @ $4.5975; WN, Down $.0175 @ $4.6575.  The funds bought were estimated to have bought 8 K 

CORN/SORGHUM                       &n​bsp;                                                &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;           

·    &nbs​p;   Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 35-43 mbu for 15/16 corn

·        T-storm Weather: Sustained dry/hot weather continues across much of Brazil’ssafrinha corn into at least late-month

·        ATI Research: Concerns about Brazil’s safrinha (double crop) corn crop are rising in view of hot, dry weather.  If the safrinha harvest is down 3.0 MMT from 2015, Sept. 1corn supplies in Brazil could be 20 MMT smaller than a year ago

·        Consultant: Argentina corn harvest is 18% complete and this year’s crop is very good

·        Ethanol grind: 938,000 barrels/day for week end April 8—down 3.9% vs. last week but 1.5% higher vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        November 2016 soybean futures on Wednesday traded $9.67 ¾--the highest price for the contract since July 16, 2015

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 4-11 mbu for 15/16 soybeans; soymeal, 0-180 K MT; and soyoil, 0-20 K MT

·        ATI Research: U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast to average 150-175 K MT per week near-term

·        Consultant: Heavy rains recently in parts of central and east-central Argentina have disrupted soybean harvest

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 0-15 mbu for 15/16 all wheat and 4-11 mbu for 16/17

·        ATI Research: Near-term U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to range from 12-16 mbu per week  

ENERGY

·        Mixed:   CLK16, +$0.05, $41.82; EBM, -$0.06; EBM-CLM, +$1.04, -$0.12; RBK, -$.0023; NGK, -0.002;  HOK, +$.0078

·        Cash ethanol markets were higher on Wednesday: Chicago and New York gained 2 ¾; Gulf added 3; Tampa firmed 1 ½; Dallas climbed 1; and LA was 3 higher at $1.69 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs lower: 2014’s down 1 3/8 to 71-71 ¾; 2015’s off 1 ½ to 71 ¼-71 ¾; and 2016’s declined 1 3/8 to 71-71 ¾

·        The MayRBOB/May Ethanol spread inverted, increasing $.0438 to -$.02450yesterday                    

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  &n​bsp;             &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;           

·        On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values gained $2.90, and at $222.21 are $5.80 higher vs. last week

·        Cash cattle prices were not tested on Wednesday with asking prices in Kansas around $136-$138

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 93-cents Wednesday to $77.57—the highest level since Nov. 2

·        CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.06 Wednesday to $66.70.  April futures declined $0.075 & are $0.175 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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