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MARKET TREND CK, Down 2, SK, Up 3, WK, Up 1

April 4, 2016 08:02 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND:  CK, Down $.0175; SK, Up $.0325; WK, Up $.01;  KWK, Up $.0150

·        “Little changed” is the way wire services describe global equity markets this morning.  ASIA:  the Nikkei closed off .25%; the Hang Seng fell 1.34%; Shanghai gained .17%.  EUROPE:  Is however, higher with both the DAX & CAC up 1+%; Britain’s FTSE is .55% to the plus side.  U.S. Futures: DOW, +25; S&P, +4.76; NAS, +9.7.  EXTERNALS: The $ Index is .182 higher at 94.87; May Gold is off $4.80 @ $1,218; and May crude is $.09 lower @ $36.70/barrel

·        T-storm Weather: Temperatures average considerably below normal across the Corn Belt through next weekend; occasional frosts & freezes recur. Large temperature fluctuations also occur in the Plains & Delta, but readings range from above-normal in drought-stricken wheat areas of the Plains to near-normal across the Delta.  The setup causes showers & thunderstorms to occasionally sweep from the northern Plains through the Corn Belt (esp. Tue.-Wed.), resulting in 0.40”-0.80” of rain with highest totals in Corn Belt; mainly dry weather occurs elsewhere, leaving drought-stricken wheat in Plains dry, as well as the wet Delta

·        CK, Down $.0175 @ $3.5250;  CN, Down $.0175 @ $3.56.  The funds were estimated to have purchased 3 K on Friday  

·        SK, Up $.0325 @ $9.2150;  SN, Up $.03 @ $9.29.   Funds bought 7 K SB; 5 K SBM and 3 K SBO

·        WK, Up $.01 @ $4.77675;  WN, Up $.01 @$4.84.  The funds bought 3 K

CORN/SORGHUM                           &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;       

·        ATI​ Research: U.S. 15/16 corn reported under loan as of April 1 was 574.9 mbu.  This is up 148.6 mbu (35%) from the 426.3 mbu of 14/15 corn reported under loan at this time last year

·        December 2016 corn futures closed at $3.69 ¾ Friday—the lowest weekly settlement price for the life of the contract

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 41.8 needed; 38.5 last week; Sorghum, 4.1 needed; 11.8 last week

·        ATI Research: Projections based on production estimates derived from last week’s USDA Prospective Plantings report suggest the potential for significantly tighter fall storage space conditions in the central & eastern Corn Belt vs. 2015

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        ATI Research: U.S. 15/16 soybeans reported under loan as of April 1 was 81.4 mbu.  This is up 36.7 mbu (82%) from the 44.7 mbu of 14/15 soybeans reported under loan at this time last year

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 7.6 needed; 20.9 last week

·        November 2016 soybean futures closed at $9.32 ¼ Fri., the highest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 10

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Wheat, 18.9 needed; 12.0 last week

·        ATI Research: 15/16 wheat under loan for 3/24, 57.4 mbu--more 2X the 26.9 of 14/15 wheat under loan a year ago

·        The International Grains Council Friday forecast 16/17 world wheat production at 713 MMT vs. 734 MMT in 15/16

ENERGY

·        Mixed::  CLK16, -$0.09, $36.70; EBM, +$0.30; EBM-CLM, +$0.51, +$0.04; RBK, +$.0101; NGK, +$0.032;  HOK, -$.011

·        Modest gains were seen in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago and Gulf increased 1 ½; New York added 3/8; Tampa and Dallas climbed ½; and LA was also ½ higher at $1.55 ¼ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s down 5/8 to 72-72 ¾; 2015’s off 5/8 to 72-72 ¾; and 2016’s eased ¼ to 71 ¾-72 ¾

·        The MayRBOB/April Ethanol spread went to an inverse at -$.0434/gallon Friday               

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                  &​nbsp;                  

·        Choice boxed beef values eased $1.88 on Friday, and at $219.11 are down $5.25 vs. last week & lowest since March 1

·        April live cattle futures closed at $132.975 Fri.—dn $2.875 vs. prior week & lowest weekly settlement since Feb. 12

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed 79-cents Friday, and at $76.67 is $1.38 higher vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index was $0.18 higher Friday at $65.72.  April futures fell $0.55 but are still $2.08 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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