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MARKET TREND CK, Down 1, SK, Down 2, WK, Down 1

March 30, 2016 07:35 AM

·        MARKET TREND:  CK, Down $.0025;  SK, Up $.0025; WK, Down $.0075;  KWK, Down $.01

·        Global equity markets are “surging” as Yellen’s comments suggested the Fed will take a cautious, prudent approach to subsequent rate hikes,  ASIA: Shanghai, +2.76%; Hang Seng, +2.15%; the Nikkei weakened 1.31% on the Yen’s strength. EUROPE: higher with CAC-40 up 2.03%; FTSE, +1.89% and the DAX, +1.81%. U.S. Pre-Markets:  DOW futures, +109; S&P, +12.50; NAS, +33.75. EXTERNALS:  $ Index off .191 @ 95.025;  Gold is $.40 higher @ $1,236.80 and May WTI is up $.70 @ $38.98

·        T-storm Weather: A large system produces widespread rain across the central U.S. through Thursday, especially in the wet Delta, but excluding driest wheat in the Plains.  All areas turn much cooler for a few days as a one-week period of drying follows / continues for most, but all areas turn warmer as next week progresses – especially in driest areas of the Plains.  Better rain chances follow from late next week or weekend (Apr. 7-10) forward, but it will take many days to determine location, coverage, and amounts; best chances are in the Corn Belt and Delta

·        CK, Down $.0025 @ $3.7275;  CN, Steady @ $3.7725.  More fund buying with 8 K purchased yesterday

·        SK, Up $.0025 @ $9.1625;  SN, Up $.0025 @ $9.23.   Funds bought 6 K SB; 2 K SBM and 5 K SBO

·        WK, Down $.0075 @ $4.76;  WN, Down $.0075 @$4.83.  The funds were active buyers Tuesday, taking 7 K

CORN/SORGHUM                                  &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                         ​                        <​/wbr>

·        ATI Research: Bias is U.S. corn exports over the near term will average in the 35-40 mbu per week range

·        Consultant: Most of the safrinha (double crop) corn in Brazil is in vegetative development.  Even though the crop was planted later than normal, the weather thus far has been favorable and the crop is rated in good condition

·        The USDA reported corn planting in Texas as of March 27 was 38% complete compared to 18% in 2015 and the 5-year average of 37%.  Sorghum planting is 31% complete vs. 10% last year and the average of 29%

·        Ethanol margins: $0.15 per gallon—up from $0.13 last week but below $0.48 last year.  EIA report at 9:30 a.m. CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean exports are expected to slowly work down to 15-16 mbu by the end of April

·        Consultant: The 2015/16 Argentina soybean production estimate is increased 0.5 MMT to 60.5 MMT and could potentially move higher

·        ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to average 13-17 mbu per week through April

·        T-storm Weather: GFS model is very wet in driest U.S. HRW wheat areas withinApril 10-14, but the potential event is at least two weeks into the future and it is very unlikely the model has a good handle on the atmosphere at that time

ENERGY

·        Higher:  CLK16, +$0.70, $38.98; EBK, +$0.56; EBK-CLK, +$0.75, -$0.11; RBK, +$.0043; NGK, +$0.012;  HOK, +$.0199

·        EIA estimates: crude, +3.5 (API: +2.6); Gasoline, -2.4 (-1.9); Distillates, -0.6 (-0.1)

·        Cash ethanol markets were higher on Tuesday: Chicago increased 3; New York and Tampa added 1 ½; Gulf up 2 ¼; Dallas firmed 2; but LA was ½ higher at $1.55 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s up 7/8 to 73 ¼-74 ¼; 2015’s added ¾ to 73 ¼-74 ¼; and 2016’s firmed 7/8 to 73 ¼-74 ¼

·        The April RBOB/April Ethanol spread gave up nearly 3 cents to close at+$.0048/gallon yesterday               

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                              &n​bsp;                      

·       &n​bsp;Choice boxed beef values declined 22-cents on Tuesday, and at $225.06 are down $2.85 vs. last week 

·        Cash cattle trading was non-existent on Tuesday with a few showlists priced at $138 in the South & $220 in the North

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed 9-cents Tuesday, and at $76.11 is 3-cents higher compared to last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.13 Tue. to $64.93.  April futures were $0.325 higher and are $5.32 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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