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MARKET TREND CK, Down 1, SK, Down 1, WK, Up 3

March 28, 2016 08:13 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND:  CK, Down $.0125;  SK, Down $.0050; WK, Up $.0150;  KWK, Up $.0025

·        ASIA: Mixed with economic news light.  The finished up .77%; Shanghai fell nearly a similar amount, off .72% and the Hang Seng gave up 1.31%.  EUROPE:  Closed today but weaker Friday with France’s CAC 40 off 2.13%; the DAX was down 1.71% and the FTSE ended 1.49% lower.  U.S.: DOW futures are 41 higher; The NAS looks to open 13.25 higher and the S&P, up 5.75. U.S. data out on Friday had QIV U.S. GDP up 1.4%, better than the prior 1.0% estimate. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.074; Gold, -$4.90; Oil, +$.18

·        T-storm Weather: Periods of rain are expected for the Delta and Corn Belt the next two weeks as large temperature fluctuations occur, while driest HRW wheat in the Plains remains mostly dry until potentially April 6-9.  Despite some coldness in the central U.S. through the up-coming 10 days, a killing freeze is not expected for jointed wheat.  Winter corn in Brazil turns increasingly dry through 10 to 14 days, while Argentina crops turn increasingly wet. Heavy weekend rains were noted for Brazil but will turn drier than normal into at least mid-April

·        CK, Down $.0125 @ $3.6875; CN, Down $.0150 @ $3.73.  The funds bought 5 K on Thursday       

·        SK, Down $.0025 @ $9.1025; SN, Down $.0075  @ $9.17.   Funds bought 8 K SB; 6 K SBM and sold 2 K SBO

·        WK, Up $.0125 @ $4.6425;  WN, Up $.01 @ $4.7175.  The funds were even in Thursday’s trade

CORN/SORGHUM                   &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;               

·&nb​sp;       ATI Research: U.S. 15/16 corn reported under loan as of March 24 was 589.8 mbu.  This is up 151.1 mbu (34%) from the 438.7 mbu of 14/15 corn reported under loan at this time last year

·        December 2016 corn futures closed at $3.87 ¼ Thursday--highest weekly settlement price for contract since Feb. 5

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 41.7 needed; 39.9 last week; Sorghum, 4.5 needed; 7.8 last week

·        ATI Research: There is virtually no relationship between the pace of U.S. corn planting and crop size.  Time/technology along with June/July temperatures and rainfall amounts are much more important

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        ATI Research: U.S. 15/16 soybeans reported under loan as of March 24 was 86.0 mbu.  This is up 39.0 mbu (83%) from the 47.0 mbu of 14/15 soybeans reported under loan at this time last year

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 8.2 needed; 21.1 last week

·        November 2016 soybean futures closed at $9.22 ¾ Thu., the highest settlement price for the contract since Dec. 4

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Wheat, 18.2 needed; 17.2 last week

·        ATI Research: 15/16 wheat under loan for 3/24, 56.7 mbu--more 2X the 26.4 of 14/15 wheat under loan a year ago

·        Egypt on Thursday purchased one 60,000 MT cargo of French wheat, paying $189.20 per MT

ENERGY

·        Mixed:   CLK16, +$0.17, $39.63; EBK, +$0.08; EBK-CLK, +$0.88, -$0.10; RBK, +$.0042; NGK, -$0.041;  HOK, -$.0008

·        Cash ethanol markets were mostly firmer on Thursday: Chicago, Tampa, Dallas and Gulf all added 2 ½; New York steady; and LA was 2 ¼ higher at $1.55 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs slightly higher: 2014’s, 2015’s and 2016’s were all 1/8 firmer at 73 1/8 ranging from 73-73 ¼

·        The April RBOB/April Ethanol spread was little changed on Thursday, settling at+$.04090/gallon             

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;

·     &n​bsp;  Choice boxed beef values were $1.34 lower on Thursday, and at $224.84 are down $9.80 vs. last week

·        Hogs and Pigs: All hogs & pigs, 100.4% (avg. est. 100.5%); breeding, 100.0% (100.5%), market, 100.4% (100.0%)

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was down $1.46 Thursday, and at $75.17 is 29-cents lower vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.22 Thu. to $65.67.  April futures declined $0.05 but are still $3.955 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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