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MARKET TREND CH, Up 5, SF, Up 7, WH, Up 5

January 19, 2016 07:12 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND:  CH, Up $.0475; SF, Up $.07;  WH, Up $.05;  KWH, Up $.0325

·         China’s QII growth came in at 6.9%, the weakest in 25 years but apparently topped some pessimists’ expectations; Brent crude is higher, up $1.65-$1.70.  Shanghai closed up 3.25%; the Hang Seng gained 2.1% and the Nikkei, +.55%. China’s #’s seem to be met with enthusiasm in Europe:  CAC 40, +2.6%; DAX, +2.3%; FTSE, +2.1%.  And, in the U.S. where futures have the DOW 264 higher; the S&P, +31 and the NAS, +71 ¾. Externals:  $ Index, +215@ 99.235; gold, -$4.70 and the energies are clearly higher

·         T-storm Weather: Around seven consecutive days of heat affect much of Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay as maximums reach the mid-90s to low-100s (and locally hotter) starting over the next few days.  Dry weather also accompanies heat in many areas, except southern growing areas of Argentina where thunderstorms occur from time to time.  The upper-level high that is responsible for heat likely breaks down this coming weekend, allowing a storm system and seasonably-cooler weather to develop near-normal rainfall of 1.00" to 2.00" across these areas within Jan. 24-29.  To the north, occasional thunderstorms continue in northern areas of Brazil as a seasonable to wet January continues

·         CH, Up $.0475 @ $3.68;  CK, Up $.0475 @ $3.7225.  The funds bought 6 K on Friday

·         SF, Up $.07 @ $8.86; SH, Up $.0650 @ $8.8525  Funds sold 4 K SB & 4 K SBM; bought 2 K SBO. Del’y (1/15):  SBO, 50

·         WH, Up $.05 @ $4.7875; WK, Up $.0525 @ $4.8375.  The funds bought 4 K ahead of the weekend

CORN/SORGHUM                                  &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;    

·         ATI Research: U.S. 2015/16 corn reported under loan as of Jan. 15 was 559.1 mbu.  This is up 171.9 mbu (36%) from the 481.2 mbu of 2014/15 corn reported under loan at this time last year

·         March 2016 corn futures closed at $3.63 ¼ on Friday, the highest settlement price for the contract since Dec. 24

·         T-storm Weather: week-end rains in S Am as expected; Arg heat covered a smaller area than originally forecast.  1st -crop corn in S Brazil (and likely Paraguay) were #1 wettest since before 1977 by a whopping margin; 26.68” of rain fell since Nov. 1, besting next-wettest periods in 1982, 2002, 2003 & 2009 by ~8.00”

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 39.5 needed; 21.7 last week; Sorghum, 5.1 needed; 6.7 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. 2015/16 soybeans reported under loan as of Jan. 15 was 109.3 mbu.  This is up 43.8 mbu (67%) from the 65.5 mbu of 2014/15 soybeans reported under loan at this time last year

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Soybeans, 18.9 needed; 45.7 last week

·         ATI Research: U.S. 2015/16 wheat reported under loan as of Jan. 15 was 61.5 mbu.  This is more than double the 29.8 mbu of 2014/15 wheat reported under loan at this time last year

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 16.9 needed; 14.5 last week

ENERGY

·         Higher: CLH16,+$0.85, $31.23; EBH, +$1.66; EBH-CLH, -$1.04, +-$.80; RBH, +.0482; NGH, +$.061; HOH, +$.0198

·         Cash ethanol markets continued  to show strength:  NY rose 4 ¼ to $1.42 ¼; the Gulf was 3 higher; Chicago picked up 2 to $1.31 7/8; Dallas rose 1 ½; LA edged up ¼ while Tampa fell back ¾ of a cent

·         Ethanol RINs weakened: 2014’s down 5/8 to 66 ¼-67 ¼; 2015’s eased 5/8 to 63 ½, 64 ½; & 2016’s off 5/8 to 66 ¼ -66 ½

·         The Feb RBOB/Feb Ethanol inverse increased nearly 7 ¼ cents on  Friday to -$.3288/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                              &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;    

· &n​bsp;       Choice boxed beef values declined 74-cents Friday to $231.73

·         Dressed steer weight for week end Jan. 2: 904 lbs, dn 2 pounds v. last week, 908.75 for 4-week avg. & 897 last year

·         The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed $1.80 on Thursday to $72.07, and is $2.36 higher v. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.30 at $55.42.  February futures $0.325 lower but are still $6.605 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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