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MARKET TREND CH, Up 3, SH, Up 6, WH, Up 5

February 16, 2016 07:19 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND:  CH, Up $.0375;  SH, Up $.0676;  WH, Up $.0525;  KWH, Up $.0425

·         Equity markets are mixed. Russia and the Saudis agree to fix oil output at January levels, little impact expected as Iran/Iraq are not part of the agreement.  Asia:  Shanghai, +3.3%; Hang Seng, +1.1%; Nikkei, +.2%. Europe: FTSE, +.22%; DAX, -.8%; CAC 40, -.07%.  Comments from ECB  head suggests more monetary easing in order.  U.S. Pre-markets:  Look strong with DOW futures, up 190; NAS, 66 ¼ higher; S&P500, +23. Crude oil, +$.34 @ $29.78; Gold, $22 @$1,127; $ Index, +.633 @ 96.615

·         T-storm Weather: Waves of energy and dissipating cool fronts trigger thunderstorms across Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay over the next 10 days.  Thunderstorms cool the atmosphere on any given day, but heat quickly develops on rain-free days due to elongated upper-level high pressure near the grain and oilseed belt.  Highest rain amounts focus on Argentina.  In the U.S., sharp warming occurs in all areas this week as mildness in the West and Plains briefly expands, most likely followed by more seasonable temperatures across the Corn Belt toward the weekend.  A storm system of more notable significance may mark an end to mildness late this week or weekend, with the potential for significant rain highest in the Corn Belt and Delta

·         CH, Up $.0375@$3.6250; CK, Up $.0350 @ $3.67.  Fund selling totaled 3 K on Friday          

·         SH, Up $.0675 @$8.7950; SK, Up $.06 @$8.8250.    The funds sold 1 K SB, 2 K SBM and bought 3 K SBO

·         WH, Up $.0525 @ $4.6275 WK, Up $.05 @ $4.6750.   Fund sales were estimated at 1 K ahead of the weekend

CORN/SORGHUM                                  &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;     

·         ATI Research: U.S. 2015/16 corn reported under loan as of Feb. 12 was 683.0 mbu.  This is up 204.0 mbu (43%) from the 479.0 mbu of 2014/15 corn reported under loan at this time last year

·         T-storm Weather: The up-coming weather pattern for Argentina corn is mixed.  On the one hand, rain aids immature corn; however, thunderstorms interlace with periods of heat

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 40.1 needed; 17.3 last week; Sorghum, 4.9 needed; 9.4 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions decrease 3,645 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. 2015/16 soybeans reported under loan as of Feb. 12 was 109.4 mbu.  This is up 50.8 mbu (87%) from the 58.6 mbu of 2014/15 soybeans reported under loan at this time last year

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Soybeans, 15.2 needed; 43.1 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions decrease 13,538 contracts

·         T-storm Weather: Low chance of rain for HRW wheat in central and southern Plains from system later this week

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 16.8 needed; 14.6 last week

ENERGY

·         Mixed:  CLH16, +$0.34, $29.78; EBJ, +$0.55; EBJ-CLH, +$4.26, +$.31; RBH, -$.0142; NGH, -.028;  HOH, +$.0085

·         A mixed tone was seen in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago steady; New York down 1 ½; Gulf steady; Dallas off ½; Tampa eased 1; but LA was 1 higher at $1.53 ½ per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs firmer: 2014’s gained 1 3/8 to 72-73 ¼; 2015’s up 7/8 to 72-73 ¼; & 2016’s added 1 1/8 to 72-73 ½

·         The March RBOB/March Ethanol inverse gave up $.0985 on Friday, settling at -$.3328 per gallon   

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;    

· &nb​sp;       Choice boxed beef values were 94-cents lower on Friday, and at $216.08 are down $4.52 vs. last week

·         Cash cattle prices traded significantly weaker on Thursday, with sales in the South at $133--$3 lower than last week

·         USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was up 85-cents on Friday, but at $76.01 is down $1.38 vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index was $0.31 higher at $65.91.  April futures gained $0.925 and are $4.465 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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