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MARKET TREND CH, Up 2, SH, Unch WH, Up 3

February 29, 2016 07:39 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND:  CH, Up $.0225;  SH, Unch; WH, Up $.0325;  KWH, Up $.0275.

·         Chinese officials pushed the yuan lower and Asia went south:  Shanghai lost 2.9%; the Hang Seng fell 1.3% and the Nikkei, -1%.  People’s Bank of China cuts its reserve ratio requirement to ease economic concerns. Europe is likewise weaker at mid-day with the DAX off 1.4%; the FTSE and CAC 40 are both .58% lower.  Pre-market indicators find DOW futures off 47; the S&P, down 5 and the NAS, 18 ½ lower.  April WTI is little changed; Gold is up $13 @ $1,232.80 and the $ Index is .18 to the plus side @ 98.355

·         T-storm Weather: It appears most probable for widespread rainfall of 2.25" to 4.50" to affect much of Brazil over the next 10 days (except in / adjacent Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul where less or much-less rain occurs), while another 1.00" to 2.00" keeps Argentina moist.  Temperatures remain below normal from Argentina through southern Brazil and Paraguay, while above-normal heat remains confined to / near the upper-level high across / adjacent Bahia.  In the U.S., light rain develops across the Delta and southeast half of the Corn Belt Tue.-Wed. (0.25" to 0.75" most common), but bypasses the Plains due to a lack of humidity.  Unseasonably-mild weather continues across the southwest half of the Plains the next week, while temps fluctuate in the east

·         CH, Up $.0225 @ $3.5675;  CK, Up $.0175 @ $3.6125.  The funds sold 5 K.   0 deliveries

·         SH, Unch @ $8.55; SK, Down $.01 @ $8.6250.  Funds: sold 3K SB, 4 SBM, bot 3 K SBO. Del’y:  227 SB, 141 SBM, 1,296 SBO

·         WH, Up $.0325 @ $4.4650; WK, Up $.0325 @ $4.5550.  The funds sold 4 K.  Del’y:  6 SRW, 0 HRW

CORN/SORGHUM                          ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;             

·  &n​bsp;      ATI Research: U.S. 2015/16 corn reported under loan as of Feb. 26 was 684.7 mbu.  This is up 213.1 mbu (45%) from the 471.6 mbu of 2014/15 corn reported under loan at this time last year

·         T-storm Weather: Best thunderstorm chances over the next 10 days hold until Wednesday--Thursday forward in Argentina, and occur in varying areas every day in Brazil — especially in central growing areas over the next few days

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 40.7 needed; 35.4 last week; Sorghum, 4.7 needed; 8.4 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 5,727 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. 2015/16 soybeans reported under loan as of Feb. 26 was 108.3 mbu.  This is up 52.9 mbu (90%) from the 55.3 mbu of 2014/15 soybeans reported under loan at this time last year

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Soybeans, 11.7 needed; 56.3 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions increase 5,367 contracts

·         T-storm Weather: Bouts of record mildness through 10 days in U.S., likely causing HRW wheat to break dormancy

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 17.6 needed; 9.0 last week

ENERGY

·         Mixed:  CLJ16, -$0.09, $32.71; EBJ, +$0.29; EBJ-CLJ, +$2.66, +$.34; RBJ, -$.0096; NGJ, -0.0800;  HOJ +$.0020

·         Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Friday: Chicago up 1 ¼; New York down ¾; Gulf steady;  Dallas up ½; Tampa gained 1; and LA was 1 lower at $1.51 ½ per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s down ½ at 75-75 ½; 2015’s off ½ at 75-75 ½; and 2016’s eased ½ to 75-76

·         The March RBOB/March Ethanol inverse reversed course, gaining $.0404 Friday to settle at  -$.3704/gal   

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                  

·         Choice boxed beef values were $1.09 lower on Friday, but at $217.67 are still $6.01 higher than last week

·         April live cattle futures closed at $137.225 Fri.—up $3.275 vs. prior Friday & highest weekly settlement since Dec. 31

·         USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout eased 9-cents on Friday, and at $73.82 is down 72-cents vs. last week 

·         CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.08 at $66.60.  April futures were $0.275 lower but are still $4.25 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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