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MARKET TREND CH, Up 1, SH, Up 1, WH, Up 2

March 3, 2016 08:29 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND:  CH, Up $.0050;  SH, Up $.0375; WH, Up $.02;  KWH, Up $.05

·         Global  equity markets are mostly steady ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report but skepticism for growth prospects remain.  Asia:  the Nikkei closed up 1.3%; Shanghai crept .36% higher while the Hang Seng receded .3%. Europe: a mixed bag with the FTSE .24% higher; the DAX is off .17% and the CAC 40, -.23%.  U.S. futures are a trifle lower:  DOW, -5; S&P, -1; NAS, -2. Data releases:  ISM non-mfg, expected at 53, vs 53.5 LM; Markit PMI, 50.5 vs 49.8 LM.  Externals; Gold, +$1.90; $ Index, -.015; April crude, +$.03

·         T-storm Weather: Dissipating cool fronts trigger thunderstorms with areas of heavy rain in central and northern Brazil over the next 10 days, while cooler and drier weather occur with southward extent through Argentina.  In the U.S., several weak systems develop light rain and some snow across the Delta and northern / eastern Corn Belt over the next few days, while dry and unseasonably mild weather continue in the Plains.  All areas turn unseasonably mild from this weekend forward.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms unfold as the large system moves into the central U.S. next week, especially across the Corn Belt and Delta where 1.00" to 3.00" amounts are probable.  Some rain is also likely in HRW wheat areas of the Plains

·         CH, Up $.0050 @ $3.55;  CK, Up $.0050 @ $3.5675  The funds bought 2 K.   0 deliveries

·         SH, Up $.0325 @ $8.58; SK, Up $.0175 @ $8.6325.   Funds: bought 2 SB, 3 SBM; sold 2 K SBO.  Del’y:  526 SB, 0 SBM, 157 SBO

·         WH, Up $.02 @ $4.4476; WK, Up $.0225 @ $4.5250.  The funds bought 2 K.  Del’y:  233 SRW, 1 HRW

CORN/SORGHUM                           &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;            

·   &nb​sp;     Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 28-43 mbu for 15/16 corn

·         December 2016 corn futures on Wednesday made a new contract low of $3.7325, but settled up $0.0075 at $3.745

·         Consultant: There is still interest in safrinha (double crop) corn planting in Mato Grosso, Brazil.  However, farmers will not risk planting past about March 10 due to concerns that the crop will run out of moisture before it matures

·         T-storm Weather: Planting conditions for Safrinha (double crop) corn across Center-West, Brazil gradually deteriorate over the next 10 days due to heavy rainfall of 2.25” to 4.50”

·         Ethanol grind: 987,000 barrels/day for week end Feb. 26—down 0.7% vs. last week but 6.0% higher vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales report.  Trade expects 7-22 mbu for 15/16 soybeans; soymeal, 100-250 K MT; and soyoil, 0-10 K MT

·         ATI Research: Near-term U.S. weekly soybean meal exports forecast at 190-210 K MT, down from 266 K last year

·         Export Sales report.  Trade expects 7-17 mbu for 15/16 all wheat

·         Chi. March wheat futures traded $4.3525 Wed.—lowest for nearby contract since 6/11/10—but settled up $0.0425

·         T-storm Weather: The dying El Nino strongly favors a wet spring in the U.S. central and southern Plains

ENERGY

·         Mixed:  CLJ16, +$0.03, $34.68; EBK, -$0.08; EBK-CLK, +$0.54, -$.09; RBJ, -$.00894; NGJ, -0.005;  HOJ, +$.0018

·         Further deterioration was noted in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago off 1 ½; New York and Gulf off 1;  Dallas and Tampa declined 2; and LA was 1 lower at $1.48 ¾ per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs lower: 2014’s slid 7/8 to 72 ¾-73 ½; 2015’s eased 1 1/8 to 72 ½-73 ¼; and 2016’s off 1 1/8 to 72 ¾-73 ½

·         The April RBOB/March Ethanol inverse gave up $.0182, settling at -$.0463/gal at mid-week     

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            <​wbr>                   &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;  

·   &n​bsp;     On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values were $1.90 higher, and at $220.05 are up $2.33 compared to a week ago 

·         Since Feb. 19, choice boxed beef values have increased $8.39 (4.0%) and are trading at the highest level since Feb. 5

·         USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout increased 47-cents on Wednesday, and at $75.04 is up 62-cents vs. last week 

·         CME Lean Hog Index was $0.01 higher at $66.77.  April futures declined $0.35 but are still $3.28 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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