HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CH, Up $.0050; SF, Up $.0425; WH, Up $.0275; KWH, Up $.0175
· Overseas markets are mixed this morning wth enthusiasm dampened by lower oil prices. In Asia, the Nikkei closed up .27% and Shanghai was .25% higher; the Hang Seng retreated a ½%. Europe is decidedly weaker: DAX, off .63%; FTSE, down .38% and the CAC 40, -.02%. Pre-market indicators for the U.S. have a negative bais: DOW futures, off 33; the NAS, down 3 ½ and the S&P 500, also 3 ½ lower. IMF sees 2016 global growth “disappointing”. $ Index, +.157; gold, -$1.70; crude, $1.09/barrel lower
· T-Storm Weather: A series of storm systems trigger t-storms across Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay into the weekend These will continue to impact Argentina and Paraguay, but a five-day break in rain remains plausible across southern Brazil. Periods of heat will occur in Argentina, but will not be of a sustained nature. Storms will gradually increase into the weekend for the driest areas of northern Brazil and leading to the first sustained period of above-normal rainfall this growing season.
· CH, Up $.0050 @ $3.63; CK, Up $.0025 @ $3.6925. The funds bought 2 K on Tuesday
· SF, Up $.04250 @ $8.7425; SH, Up $.0350 @ $8.69. Funds bought 3 K SB; 1 K SBM and 3 K SBO
· WH, Up $.0275 @ $4.7850; WK, Up $.0250 @ $4.8450. The funds bought 4 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM ;    
·   CH16 makes new contract low of $3.57; closes up 1 ½ at $3.63 ½ or 8 cents below the year-ago close
· High water on the Miss River is slowing barges. STL is expected to reach 45’ by Thursday, vs 8/1/93 record of 49.58’
· Analog years suggest the USDA could cut its corn export forecast by 50 mbu in the January WASDE
· USDA corn feed/residual estimate too optimistic? 4.6 MMT MORE use of competing grains and energy feeds in 15/16
· Ethanol margins, subject to individual plant operating costs, approaching 15 cents/gallon, or less
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· South American consultant notes Argentine producers still have an estimated 2 million hectares of beans to plant
· Board crush at 56 ½ cents per bushel is less than 40% of what it was a year ago as SBM Argentine shipments escalate
· U.S. SB export forecast in jeopardy? YTD exports to China down 11%; O/S sales are 25% lower & S AM carryover stocks are 24% greater
· Brazil’s 2nd largest soybean grower—Vanguardo Agro SA—seeks to defer 1st installment of $150 million debt deal
· Lack of wheat snow cover in North America, China, Europe and the Black Sea getting more press. And the Indian crop is down
ENERGY
· Lower: CLG16,-$1.09, $36.78; EBG, -$.77; EBG-CLGH, +$.17, +$.25; RBG, -$.0260; NGG, -$.130; HOG, -$.0170
· EIA Stocks Estimates (API): Crude, -1.0 (+2.9); Gasoline, +0.8 (+0.5); Distillates, +1.0 (+2.1)
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed: the Gulf rose 2; Tampa was 2 weaker; New York edged up 1 to $1.47 ½; Dallas was off 1; LA slipped a ½ cent to $1.54 and Chicago gained $.0062 to $1.3950/gallon
· Weekly EIA ethanol production expected to be unchaged to 10 K bpd higher with a slight stocks increase
· Ethanol RINs mixed: 2014’s steady at 70-70 ½; 2015’s off ¼ at 69 ½- 70; and 2016’s up ¼ at 68 ½- 69
· The Jan RBOB/Jan Ethanol inverse lost 3 ½ cents, narrowing to -$.1240/gallon on Tuesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   ;
· Choice boxed beef values increased $3.46 to $201.09 on Monday and are up $9.81 vs. a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $6.76 last week to $123.40/cwt but is $38.55 lower vs. last year
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed 59-cents on Monday to $70.07 but is $1.17 lower vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.51 at $53.50. February futures $0.825 higher and are $5.625 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather