HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CH, Up $.01; SF, Up $.04; WH, Up $.0175; KWH, Up $.0225
· China debacle over-done? Possibly, according to some pundits. Stock markets there do not always reflect the country’s economic fundamentals. Asia: Shanghai, up 2; the Hang Seng gains .6% but the Nikkei closes .4% lower. Europe is mixed this morning—CAC 40, -.2% with the DAX up .17% and the FTSE, +.24%. U.S. jobs report out in the am. Futures: DOW, +78; S&P, +9; NAS, +27.50. Externals: $ Index, +1/2 point at 98.78; gold, -$11.30 @ $1,096.40 with Feb WTI searching for direction
· T-storm Weather: Except for far southern areas of Brazil, dissipating cool fronts produce heavy rainfall of 5.00" to 10.00" over the next two weeks (3.25" to 5.50" is normal of the period). The forecast is more complex in Argentina, far southern Brazil, and adjacent areas of Paraguay. Waves of energy will continue to move across the region, but thunderstorm coverage and amounts will often be limited by surface-level high pressure that hugs the Atlantic coastline. That said, a few thunderstorms occur from time to time to prevent Argentina from turning too dry, while potentially easing excessive wetness in far southern Brazil and Paraguay. Some heat also develops in Argentina, but will be suppressed at times by cool fronts and / or a few thunderstorms
· CH, Up $.01 @ $3.54; CK, Up $.01 @ $3.5950. The funds were again even.
· SF, Up $.04 @ $8.81; SH, Up $.0325 @ $8.6775. Funds; even SB; bought 3 K SB; sold 1 K SBM & 2 K SBO. Del’y: SBO, 228
· WH, Up $.0175 @ $4.7025; WK, Up $.0175 @ $4.75. The funds bought 2 K Thursday
CORN/SORGHUM       ;
· March 2016 corn futures made a life-of-contract low of $3.48 ½ Thursday, but closed only $0.0025 lower at $3.53
· ATI Research: The 2015 EU corn crop was down 24% v. last year but large domestic wheat supplies could substitute in feed rations. Along with ample & more competitively prices South American corn, this may limit U.S. corn sales to EU
· ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales for the week ending Dec. 31 of just 10.0 mbu were down 64% from the previous week and 68% below the prior 4-week average. Year-to-date sales are 805 mbu vs. 1076 last year (-25%)
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum export sales for week end Dec. 31 of 6.9 mbu: +29% v. last week but -5% v. 4-week avg.
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· November 2016 soybean futures closed at $8.77 ¾ Thur.; one year ago, November 2015 contract settled at $10.17
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending Dec. 31 were 23.5 mbu. That’s up 33% from last week and 46% below the prior 4-week average. Year-to-date sales are 1.403 bbu vs. 1.584 last year (-11%)
· ATI Research: U.S. export sales of all wheat for the week ending Dec. 31 were a marketing year low 2.8 mbu. That’s down 79% from last week & 76% below vs. the 4-week avg. Year-to-date sales of 581 mbu vs. 685 last year (-15%)
· T-storm Weather: Temps cold enough to induce winterkill likely to stay north of U.S. snow-free wheat starting Sunday
ENERGY
· Lower: CLG16,-$0.05, $33.19; EBG, +$0.01; EBG-CLG, $.61, +$.13; RBG, -$.0067; NGG, +$.008; HOG, -$.0058
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed but mostly weaker on Thursday: Chicago eased 1; New York down 3 5/8; Gulf up ¾; Dallas off ½; Tampa steady; and LA was ½ lower at $1.43 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs steady to lower: 2014’s unch at 70-71; 2015’s down ¾ to 69-70; and 2016’s off ½ at 69-70
· The Feb RBOB/Jan Ethanol inverse was little changed at-$.1740/gallon on Thursday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   ;
· Choice boxed beef values increased $2.56 on Thursday, and at $230.59 are the highest sinceSept. 16
· Light trading occurred in parts of the North Thu. with most dressed sales at $210-212—steady to down $2 v. last week
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined 13-cents on Thursday to $69.71 but is $1.01 higher vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.21 at $53.50. February futures $1.275 lower but are still $6.05 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather