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MARKET TREND CH, Up 1, SF, Down 1, WH, Down 2, KWH, Down 2,

December 10, 2015 07:17 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND:  CH, Up $.0050; SF, Down $.0150;  WH, Down $.0250;  KWH, Down $.0250

·         Asia took its overnight direction from the U.S.  and closed lower—the Nikkei lost 1.3% with both Shanghai and the Hang Seng down .45-.46%.  Europe is likewise weaker:  CAC 40, -.13%; DAX, -.24% and the FTSE, -.55%.  Futures for U.S. indices are called higher: DOW, +33; S&P 500, +5 ¾; NAS, +12 1/4 . Year-end positioning and oil could add some volatility to today’s trading.  Gold is $2.40 lower at $1,074.40; Jan WTI is steady for the moment and the $ Index is .381 higher at 97.715

·         T-storm Weather:  A series of frequent t-storm clusters stretching from central Argentina through much of South / Southeast Brazil and Paraguay can be anticipated the next 10 day.  The heaviest amounts in the range of 3.00" to 6.00" will concentrate on the wettest areas of South Brazil and Paraguay, further contributing to one of the wettest November to mid-December periods on record.  The forecast is more complex in key northern areas of Center-West Brazil but the net is for forecasts of 1.50" of rain across Mato Grosso (50% of normal) over the next 10 days with higher totals in Goias and much lower totals in Bahia.   

·         CZ, Up $.0125 @ $3.73;  CH, Up $.0050 @ $3.7425.  The funds again bought 3 K yesterday

·         SF, Down $.0150 @ $8.7525; SH, Down $.0150 @ $8.7825.  Funds:  bought 3 K SB; 2 K SBM; sold 2 K SBO.  Del’y:  326 SBO

·         WZ, Down $.0125 @ $4.7675; WH, Down $.0250  @ $4.8725.  The funds bought 5 KWednesday. Dely’y: 23 SRW, 1 HRW

CORN/SORGHUM                           &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;           

·    ​     Export Sales out this am:  18-26 expected on corn, 28.9 needed and 3.7 for milo

·         USDA WASDE:  Corn carry-out rises 25 mbu on 25 higher ethanol grind; 50 mbu cut in exports

·         USDA sees more corn export competition from Brazil AND, Canada

·         Weekly ethanol production rebounds nearly 4% to 993 K bpd; 168 K draw on U.S. inventories

·         CFTC likely to hold additional meetings to discuss its proposal on algorithimic trading regulations

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales:  26-40 SB expected, 12.9/week needed; 75-200 SBM and 5-20 SBO (124.3 & 12.7 needed, respectively)

·         Export Sales:  trade expecting 11-18 wheat with 10.7 per week needed

·         WASDE wheat S&D a non-event as USDA leaves carry-out at 911 mbu, notes more exports (1 MMT) from Argentina

·         Likewise for soybeans as U.S. carry-out forecast continues at 465

·         USDA boosts SBO biodiesel use 200 mil lbs on new EPA mandate

·         India SB production taken down 1.5 MMT; Palm oil cut 2.5 MMT on El Nino drought effects

·         New Argentine government installed tomorrow; announcements affecting ag exports seen by the weekend

ENERGY

·         Firmer:  CLF16, +$0.00, $37.16; EBF, +$0.19; EBF-CLF, $3.13, +$.18; RBF, +$.0519; NGF, -$.014; HOF, +$.0035

·         Cash ethanol markets were mostly varied yesterday:  the Gulf lost ¾ of a cent; Chicago held steady at $1.47; Dallas gained a ½ cent; LA rose 1 to $1.59; Tampa picked up 1 ½ cents and NY ended the day 1 ¼ lower at $1.5550

·         Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s dropped 5 ¼ to 66-66 ½; 2015’s off 5 at 65-66; and 2016’s down 5 at 65-66

·         The Jan RBOB/Jan Ethanol inverse narrowed in 3 cents to -$.2323 per gallon on yesterday     

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·         Choice boxed beef were $1.06 lower on Wednesday and are down $1.00 compared to a week ago

·         Cash cattle lightly traded on Wednesday at around $119 in the South, down $5 from last week

·         On Wednesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 50-cents and is 14-cents higher vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index was $0.34 higher at $56.66.  December futures $1.425 higher and are $0.09 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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