MARKET TREND CH, Unchanged, SH, Down 2, WH, Down Unchanged

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND:  CH, Down $.0025;  SH, Down $.0125;  WH, Down $.015;  KWH, Down $.015

·         A slightly softer tone is evident in world stocks  as the week draws to a close.  A stronger yen weighed on Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average while Europe is also recording slight declines at midday.  Asia: Shanghai, -0.1%; Hang Seng, -0.4%; Nikkei, -1.4%.  Europe: FTSE, -0.4%; DAX, -0.9%.  Profit-taking after gains this week may weigh on U.S. stocks as futures are down. Pre-markets: DOW futures, down 42; NAS, off 13; S&P500, -4. Crude oil, -$.65 @ $30.12; Gold, $5.00 higher @$1,231.10; $ Index, -.08 @ 96.88

·         T-storm Weather: Upper-level high pressure dominates key areas of South America into next weekend, keeping temperatures warmer to occasionally much-warmer than normal; maximums within +/- 6F of 92F on any given day.  Waves of energy parade along the southern edge of the high, triggering heavy thunderstorm clusters every one to two days across Argentina; an additional 2.50" to 5.00" of rain occurs.  The central U.S. remains divided by a large upper-level high to the west and seasonably-cold weather to the east over the next 10 to 14 days, leaving key HRW wheat and livestock areas of the Plains warmer to much-warmer than normal (especially through Saturday when widespread maximums in the 60s-70s-80s continue)

·         CH, Down $.0025 @ $3.6525; CK, Down $.005 @ $3.6925.  Fund selling totaled 3 K on Thursday          

·         SH, Down $.0125 @ $8.785; SK, Down $.0075 @$8.82.  The funds sold 2 K SB, were even SBM and sold 1 K SBO

·         WH, Down $.015 @ $4.6075; WK, Down $.0125 @ $4.6725.   Fund were sellers of an estimated at 4 K on Thursday

CORN/SORGHUM                 &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                      <​/wbr>

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 24-39 mbu for 15/16 corn

·         The 2016 base crop insurance price average of December 2016 corn futures from Feb. 1-18 is $3.8756

·         T-storm Weather: Some rain affects Brazil over the next 7-10 days but coverage likely diminishes with northward extent, especially across northern corn areas; better rain chances likely over Feb. 29-March 3

·         Ethanol grind: 975,000 barrels/day for week end Feb. 12—up 0.6% vs. last week and 1.1% higher vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales report.  Trade expects 15-26 mbu for 15/16 soybeans; soymeal, 100-250 K MT; and soyoil, 4-20 K MT

·         ATI Research: Near-term U.S. weekly soybean meal exports forecast at 210 K MT, a year to year decline of 76 K/24%

·         The 2016 base crop insurance price average of November 2016 soybean futures from Feb. 1-18is $8.8683

·         Export Sales report.  Trade expects 7-15 mbu for 15/16 all wheat

·         T-storm Weather: Much above normal temps affect key U.S. HRW wheat through Sat.  Beyond that a major freeze is not foreseen, but it is unlikely that a freeze would not occur later this month or in March based on climatology

ENERGY

·         Mixed:  CLH16, -$0.65, $30.12; EBJ, -$0.68; EBJ-CLH, +$3.52, +$.01; RBH, -$.0094; NGH, -0.003;  HOH, -$.0149

·         ATI Research: Ethanol stocks +262 thou barrel last week for 2^nd consecutive weekly record high of 23,218 thou barrels

·         Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Thursday: Chicago declined 7/8; New York gained ½; Gulf steady; Dallas eased ½; Tampa slipped 1; and LA was ¼ higher at $1.54 per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs declined: 2014’s, 2015’s and 2016’s were all 1 lower at an average of 71 ½, ranging from 71-72

·         The March RBOB/March Ethanol inverse was $.0124 weaker on Thursday, settling at -$.433 per gallon   

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                     &n​bsp;                    ​

·         Choice boxed beef values declined 96-cents on Thursday, and at $213.39 are $3.63 lower compared to last week

·         Estimates for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Feb 1 on feed, 99.8%; Jan placements, 99.6%; Marketed in Jan 97.8%

·         USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was $1.11 lower Thursday, but at $75.23 is still 7-cents higher vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.18 to $66.26.  April futures were $0.375 lower but are still $4.515 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

 

Brian Basting 
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com 
http://www.advance-trading.com

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