HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CH, Steady to +$.0025; SF, Down $.03 (deliveries); WH, Steady; KWH, Up $.0050
· CONAB cuts Brazil sb est. 400 K to 102.1; corn upped 300 K to 82.3 MMT. China’s currency and financial markets “may” be stabilizing—Shanghai closes up .21% but Nikkei slides 2.7% and the Hang Seng drops .89%. Europe buying into the “may”, DAX propels 2.4% higher, CAC 40 rises 2.2% & FTSE up 1.5%. Wall Street appears set for a positive opening: DOW futures, +104; NAS, +32 3/4; S&P, +13. Feb WTI trading both sides; $ Index up ¼ point @ 99.065; gold off $4.30 @ $1,092.20
· T-storm Weather: Dissipating cool fronts trigger thunderstorms & produce heavy rain of 5.00" to 10.00" over the next two weeks across much of Parana & Center-West, Northeast, & Southeast Brazil (3.25" to 5.50" is normal). To the south, surface-level high pressure suppresses rain from eastern Argentina into southern Brazil &potentially Paraguay. That said, thunderstorms occur to the immediate west to keep western Argentina wet, & potentially move across Buenos Aires from time to time. When thunderstorms do not occur, heat is probable to develop as a period of above-normal warmth begins. That said, a sustained heat wave appears unlikely given the proximity of storm systems & relative ease in which rain has formed in recent weeks and months
· CH, Up $.0025 @ $3.52; CK, Steady @ $3.5750. The funds were estimated sellers of 10 K to begin the week
· SF, Down $.03 @ $8.78; SH, Up $.0075 @ $8.62. Dely: 120 SBO; 215 SB. Funds; sold 4 K SB and 3 K SBO; bought 1 K SBM
· WH, Steady @ $4.69; WK, Down $.0025 @ $4.7425. The funds sold 5 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM       ; ;
· USDA WASDE at 11:00 am CST: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn 15/16 carry-out is 1.781 bbu v. 1.785 in December
· USDA Grain Stocks report at 11:00 am CST: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks, 11.246 bbu v. 11.211 last year
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 1.851 bbu; 16/17 carry-out projected at 1.423 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 17 mbu; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 16 mbu
· Consultant: It is still possible that corn acreage in Argentina might end up higher when planting is complete
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean 15/16 carryout is 473 mbu vs. 465 in December
· USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. soybean stocks is 2.742 Bbu vs. 2.528 last year
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 510 mbu; 16/17 carry-out estimated at 621 mbu
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. wheat 15/16 carryout is 918 mbu vs. 911 in December
· USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. wheat stocks is 1.694 bbu vs. 1.530 last year
· USDA Winter Wheat Seedings: Avg. trade guesses; HRW, 28.8 (29.0 last year); SRW, 7.2 (7.1), White, 3.4 (3.4)
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet, 15/16 carryout at 153 mbu vs. 154 million for 14/15
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLG16,-$0.04, $31.37; EBG, +$0.19; EBG-CLG, $.27, +$.13; RBG, +$.0154; NGG, -$.048; HOG, +$.0073
· Cash ethanol markets were weaker on Monday: Chicago slid 2 3/8; New York down 1; Gulf declined 3 ¾; Dallas off 1 ¼; Tampa eased ½; and LA was ¼ lower at $1.44 ¾ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were lower: 2014’s down 3/8 at 68 ¼-69 ¼; 2015’s off 5/8 to 68-69; and 2016’s eased 3/8 to 68-68 ¾
· The Feb RBOB/Feb Ethanol inverse was little changed on Monday, settling at -$.2060/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY <wbr>    
· Choice boxed beef values firmed $3.12 on Monday, and at $235.32 are $17.26 higher vs. last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $1.69 last week to $132.26/cwt and is $37.41 lower vs. last year
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined 8-cents on Monday to $69.69 but is 25-cents higher vs. a week ago
· U.S. hog slaughter for Monday was estimated at 324,000 head compared 437,000 a week ago and 451,000 last year
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather