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MARKET TREND CH, Steady SH, Down 6, WH, Down 1

January 15, 2016 07:23 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND:  CH, Steady; SH, Down $.0525; WH, Down $.01; KWH, Down $.0075

·         So much for “Happy Friday” . . . Asia was weaker with Shanghai losing 3.5% of its value and said to now be in bear market territory; the Nikkei eased a ½% and the Hang Seng declined 1.5%.  Brent crude dropped below $30. Europe is down even more at mid-day:  FTSE, -1.5%; CAC 40, -1.4% and the DAX, -1.1%.  A host of U.S. data out this am—retail sales, PPI, consumer sentiment, etc.  Futures don’t look pleasant:  DOW, -244; the NAS, -74 ½ and the S&P, -29 ¼.  Mar WTI, -$1.45; gold, +$7.90

·         T-storm Weather: Rounds of thunderstorms affect much of Center-West, Northeast, & Southeast Brazil over the next 10 days, especially to the north of Mato Grosso do Sul & Sao Paulo.  A notably drier pattern is beginning in much of Argentina, southern Brazil, & Paraguay (except southern Argentina), and it continues until around next weekend when a system likely triggers at least one round of thunderstorms. Periods of heat also occur – especially away from the Atlantic coast.  In the U.S., a few areas of light to moderate rain & snow occur, but mainly in the Delta, eastern Corn Belt, & points east through 10 days.  A brief period of coldness withinSaturday-Monday is unlikely to induce winterkill due to only marginally-cold temperatures and snowpack

·         CH, Steady @ $3.58;  CK, Steady @ $3.6275.  The funds bought 3 K on Thursday

·         SH, Down $.0525 @ $8.77; SK, Down $.0575 @ $8.7725. Funds; bought 3K SB, 4 KSBO; sold 3 K SBM. Del’y:  57 SB, 121 SM, 64 BO

·         WH, Down $.01 @ $4.6775; WK, Down $.0150 @ $4.7275.  The funds sold 4 K yesterday

CORN/SORGHUM                     &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                  

·         December 2016 corn futures closed at $3.82 Thursday; one year ago, the December 2015 contract settled at $4.07 ½

·         ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales for the week ending Jan. 7 of 26.3 mbu were more than double the previous week and 14% above the prior 4-week average.  Year-to-date sales are 832 mbu vs. 1.109 bbu last year (-25%)

·         ATI Research: U.S. sorghum export sales week end Jan. 7, 0.7 mbu: Year-to-date sales, 215 mbu-down 13% v. last year

·         T-storm Weather: Sharply drier than normal weather and occasional heat occurs until next weekend across corn growing areas of Argentina including most of Santa Fe, western Entre Rios and far northeast Cordoba

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         NOPA crush report at 11:00 am CST: Average estimate for December crush is 159.4 mbu with a range of 153.7-162.4

·         ATI Research: U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending Jan. 7 were 41.4 mbu.  That’s up 77% from last week and 13% above the prior 4-week average.  Year-to-date sales are 1.441 bbu vs. 1.623 last year (-11%)

·         ATI Research: U.S. export sales of all wheat for the week ending Jan. 7 were 10.1 mbu.  That’s more than triple the previous week but down 3% vs. the prior 4-week avg.  Year-to-date sales of 591 mbu vs. 696 last year (-15%)

·         T-storm Weather: Milder temperatures resume for U.S. winter wheat from later next week forward

ENERGY

·         Weaker:  CLH16,-$1.46, $30.65; EBH, -$1.02; EBH-CLH, -$.78, +$.45; RBH, +.0284; NGH, -$.034; HOH, -$.0238

·         A stronger trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago added 2 7/8; New York firmed 1 ¼; Gulf climbed 3 ¾; Dallas increased 4; Tampa jumped 4 ½; and LA was 1 ¾ higher at $1.46 per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs weakened: 2014’s down 5/8 to 67 ¼-67 ½; 2015’s eased 5/8 to 67-67 ¼; & 2016’s off 5/8 to 66 ½-67 ½

·         The Feb RBOB/Feb Ethanol inverse gained nearly 3 ½ cents on Thursday, to -$.2923/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;  

·   &nb​sp;     Choice boxed beef values declined 5-cents on Thursday but at $235.16, are still up $4.57 compared to a week ago 

·         Dressed steer weight for week end Jan. 2: 904 lbs, dn 2 pounds v. last week, 908.75 for 4-week avg. & 897 last year

·         The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed $1.80 on Thursday to $72.07, and is $2.36 higher v. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index was $0.33 higher at $55.12.  February futures up $0.725 and are $7.23 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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