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MARKET TREND CH, Down 4, SH, Down 4, WH, Down 6

February 1, 2016 07:07 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND:  CH, Down $.0350;  SH, Down $.0350;  WH, Down $.06; KWH, Down $.0375

·         More evidence the Chinese manufacturing sector is weakening pressured Shanghai 1.77% lower; the Hang Seng slipped .45% while carry-over effects of BOJ rate cut lifted the Nikkei 1.98% higher on Monday.  Europe is reacting to the Chinese data in a negative manner with all three major equity markets off from -.34% (FTSE) to -.59% (CAC 40).  U.S. pre-markets point to a negative start:  DOW futures, off 54; NAS, -15 ¾ and the S&P, down 7. $ Index, -.207 @ 99.445; gold, $6.60; crude’s weaker

·         T-storm Weather: Areas of thunderstorms expectedly produced pockets of heavy rain within Center-West Brazil (except Goias), South Brazil, Paraguay, and northern Argentina over the weekend, including some of the driest areas of near Rio Grande do Sul; drier areas of Argentina remained dry.  Cool fronts cause occasional thunderstorms to focus on northern Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay over the next 10 days, resulting in above-normal rainfall of 2.50" to 5.00", thereby breaking dryness in Rio Grande do Sul.  In central and southern Argentina, coolness prevails over the next 10 days.  Mainly dry weather accompanies the pattern through midweek, followed by a gradual uptick in thunderstorm chances fromThursday-Friday forward

·         CH, Down $.0350 @ $3.6875; CK, Down $.0375 @ $3.73  The funds bought 10 K on Friday      

·         SH, Down $.0350 @ $8.7875; SK, Down $.0375 @ $8.8075.    Funds bought 7 K SB; 6 K SBM and 2 K SBO

·         WH, Down$.06@ $4.7325; WK, Down $.06 @ $4.79  The funds ended the week buying 5 K  

CORN/SORGHUM                       &n​bsp;                                                &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                

&middo​t;         ATI Research: U.S. 2015/16 corn reported under loan as of Jan. 29 was 673.1 mbu.  This is up 189.4 mbu (39%) from the 483.6 mbu of 2014/15 corn reported under loan at this time last year

·         March 2016 corn futures closed at $3.72 on Friday, the highest settlement price for the contract since Dec. 21

·         T-storm Weather: Seasonable to hot upper-level high pressure limits rainfall across Bahia and Center-West / Southeast Brazil over the next week, aiding safrinha (double-crop) corn planting

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 40.6 needed; 23.6 last week; Sorghum, 5.1 needed; 6.1 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. 2015/16 soybeans reported under loan as of Jan. 29 was 110.8 mbu.  This is up 48.2 mbu (77%) from the 62.5 mbu of 2014/15 soybeans reported under loan at this time last year

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Soybeans, 17.0 needed; 44.0 last week

·         ATI Research: U.S. 2015/16 wheat reported under loan as of Jan. 29 was 62.1 mbu.  This is more than double the 29.6 mbu of 2014/15 wheat reported under loan at this time last year

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 17.7 needed; 6.9 last week

ENERGY

·         Lower:  CLH16, -$0.391, $33.23; EBH, -$0.02; EBJ-CLH, +$2.75, +$.37; RBH, -$.00867; NGH, -$.097; HOH, -$.0033

·         A mixed trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago up 1/8; New York unchanged; Gulf firmed 1 ½; Tampa down 1 ½; Dallas off 1; and LA was 1 lower at $1.52 ½ per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs were higher: 2014’s firmed ¼ to 68-68 ½; 2015’s climbed ¼ to 67 ½-68; and 2016’s up ¼ to 67 ½-68

·         The Mar RBOB/Feb Ethanol inverse lost $.0121 on Friday, settling at -$.3229 per gallon   

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   &n​bsp;                      

·       &n​bsp; Choice boxed beef values declined $1.36 on Friday, and at $218.76 are $6.07 lower compared to last week

·         USDA Cattle inventory report: All cattle & calves, 103.2% of 2015 (101.8% avg. est); calf crop, 102.3% (102.1%)

·         The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was up 54-cents on Friday, and at $76.91 is $1.89 higher vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index was $0.84 higher at $61.07.  February futures $0.50 higher and are $4.73 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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