HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CH, Down $.02; SF, Down $.02; WH, Down $.0275; KWH, Down $.0250
· China! A ½ hour into trading, Shanghai was down 7% and markets were subsequently closed for the day. A 7.3% decline there was accompanined by a 3.1% drop in the Hang Seng and the Nikkei lost 2.3% of its value. European investors are nervous as well with the CAC 40 and FTSE off 2.7-2.8% and the DAX, 3.6% lower. Wall Street is in for a rough ride: DOW futures, -363; S&P, -43 ¼ and the NAS, down 128 ¼. Feb WTI is down over a dollar/barrel; gold is $3.70 higher and the $ Index is off a ½ point at 98.80
· T-storm Weather: Dissipating cool fronts trigger occasional thunderstorms in driest northern areas of Brazil over the next two weeks, producing above-normal rainfall of 5.00" to 10.00", thereby breaking unseasonable dryness of the past 2-3 months. Widely scattered and unneeded thunderstorms dot southern Brazil and Paraguay into the weekend (especially in northern Paraguay and Parana), followed by higher coverage and amounts next week when the next series of systems pass; above-normal rainfall continues exceptional wetness. In Argentina, thunderstorms will be limited to far western and northern areas over the next five days, followed by an uptick in coverage next week; near- or above-normal rainfall occurs through 10 to 14 days
· CH, Down $.02 @ $3.5125; CK, Down $.02 @ $3.5650. The funds were even in mid-week trading. Del’y: ETOH, 10
· SF, Down $.02 @ $8.7375; SH, Down $.0375 @ $8.61. Funds bought 3 K SB; 3 K SBM and even SBO. Del’y: SBO, 216
· WH, Down $.0275 @ $4.60; WK, Down $.01 @ $4.6725. The funds bought 2 KWednesday
CORN/SORGHUM       ;
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 16-24 mbu for 15/16 corn
· ATI Research: Key to U.S. corn exports this summer will be to what extent Argentina’s May-July exports compensate for seasonal down-turn from Brazil. Corn delivered to SE Asia is reportedly $4/MT cheaper from Argentina v. the U.S.
· Jan. 12 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn 15/16 carryout is 1.781 bbu vs. 1.785 in December
· Jan. 12 USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks is 11.246 bbu vs. 11.211 last year
· Ethanol grind: 996,000 barrels/day for week end Jan. 1—up 0.4% compared to last week and 5.0% higher vs. last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 15-26 mbu for 15/16 soybeans; soymeal, 50-150 K MT; and soyoil, 0-20 K MT
· Jan. 12 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean 15/16 carryout is 473 mbu vs. 465 in December
· Jan. 12 USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. soybean stocks is 2.742 Bbu vs. 2.528 last year
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 7-15 mbu for 15/16 all wheat
· Jan. 12 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. wheat 15/16 carryout is 918 mbu vs. 911 in December
· Jan. 12 USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. wheat stocks is 1.694 bbu vs. 1.530 last year
ENERGY
· Lower: CLG16,-$1.02, $32.95; EBG, -$0.69; EBG-CLG, $.61, -$.35; RBG, -$.0107; NGG, +$.035; HOG, -$.0110
· Additional declines were noted in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago and New York slid 3 ¾; Gulf down 4 ¾; Dallas eased 4; Tampa off 5; and LA was 4 ½ lower at $1.43 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s down ¾ to 70 ¼-70 ¾; 2015’s off ¾ to 70-70 ½; and 2016’s decline 7/8 to 69 ½-70 ½
· The Feb RBOB/Jan Ethanol inverse nearly doubled on strong weekly output, rising to -$.1732/gallon yesterday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values soared $5.72 higher, and at $228.03 are up $19.36 vs. last week
· Choice boxed beef values have increased $36.50 (19.1%) over the last 9 trading days
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed 33-cents on Wednesday to $69.84 and is up $2.27 vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.34 higher at $53.29. February futures down $0.275 but are $7.535 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather