HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CH, Down $.0050 SH, Up $.01; WH, Up $.0150; KWH, Up $.0150
· The Nikkei reopened after the holiday and promptly sold off 4.8%, down 11% for the week; the Kospi and Hang Seng both lost 1.2-1.4% today. Europe however, is in positive territory this morning: CAC 40, +1.2%; DAX, +1.5%; FTSE, +1.5%. Futures point to a rebound in U.S. markets: DOW, +152; NAS, +46 ¾ and the S&P, -20 ¾. Data releases this morning include retail sallles, consumer sentiment and business inventories. Outside markets: $ Index, +.161 @ 95.78; Gold, -$10.20 & Mar WTI, +$1.32
· T-storm Weather: Waves of energy and dissipating cool fronts trigger thunderstorms across Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay over the next 10 days, though heat unfolds on rain-free days. Highest coverage and amounts focus on Argentina starting today-Saturday, and in northern areas of Brazil with time. The central U.S. remains divided by a large upper-level high to the west and coldness to the east into early next week, most likely followed by a period of sharp warming next week, but then followed by a more seasonable brand of mildness as the high re-establishes in the West. Best precipitation chances are from the northern Plains through the Corn Belt and Delta over the next 10 days, but not drying areas of the southern Plains
· CH, Down $.0050 @ $3.60; CK, Down $.0050 @ $3.6450. The funds sold 3 K on Thursday
· SH, Up $.0100 @ $8.7450; SK, Up $.0125 @$8.79. The funds bought 4 K SB, 3K SBM and 4 K SBO
· WH, Up $.0150 @ $4.5975 WK, Up $.0175 @ $4.6525. The funds sold back the 3 K they bought at mid-week
CORN/SORGHUM     ; ;
· Base crop insurance pricing period for December 2016 corn futures has begun; average through Feb. 11 is $3.8836
· ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales for the week ending Feb. 4 of 15.9 mbu were down 64% from the previous week and 57% from the prior 4-week average. Year-to-date sales are 970 mbu vs. 1305 mbu last year (-26%)
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum export sales week end Feb. 4, 7.4mbu: Year-to-date sales-241 mbu-down 17% v. last year
· T-storm Weather: Heaviest rainfall the next 10 days in South America occurs in Argentina as 1.75”-3.50” unfolds (including previously dry areas); this is generally favorable for immature corn but temps will be warmer than ideal
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Base crop insurance pricing period for November 2016 soybean futures has begun; avg. through Feb. 11 is $8.8539
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending Feb. 4 were 24.5 mbu. That represented a 1% increase from the prior 4-week average. Year-to-date sales are 1.517 bbu vs. 1.695 last year (-11%)
· ATI Research: U.S. export sales of all wheat for the week ending Feb. 4 were 9.7 mbu. That represented a 6% increase from the prior 4-week average. Year-to-date sales of 626 mbu vs. 762 last year (-18%)
· T-storm Weather: U.S. rain chances next 7-10 days are lowest through the Plains, including drying HRW wheat areas
ENERGY
· Firmer: CLH16, +$1.32, $27.53; EBJ, +$1.34; EBJ-CLH, +$3.87, +$.02; RBH, +$.0539; NGH, +.002; HOH, +$.0445
· Cash ethanol markets showed a weaker trend on Thursday: Chicago down 1 1/8; New York eased ¼; Gulf off 1 ½; Dallas slipped 2; Tampa slid 2 ½; and LA was ¼ lower at $1.52 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs steady to higher: 2014’s unch at 71-71 ½; 2015’s added 3/8 to 71 ½-72; & 2016’s up ¼ to 71 ¼-72
· The March RBOB/March Ethanol inverse eased $.0092 to -$.4313 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values declined $1.17 on Thursday, and at $217.02 are down $6.01 compared to a week ago
· Cash cattle prices traded significantly weaker on Thursday, with sales in the South at $133--$3 lower than last week
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was down $1.77 lower on Thursday, and at $75.16 is $1.12 lower vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.31 to $65.60. February futures increased $0.375 but are still $0.075 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather