HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CH, Down $.0025; SH, Up $.01; WH, Steady; KWH, Down $.0075
· Quiz: crude is weaker and global stocks are . . . ? The answer is, well Shanghai closed 2.3% higher following an 11th hour Central Bank liquidity injection ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday but the Nikkei was off .6% and the Hang Seng, .8%. Europe is weaker: DAX, -1.1%; FTSE, -1.6% & CAC 40, -1.9%. U.S. pre-markets aren’t pretty: DOW(N) futures, 100 lower; NAS, off 27 ½ & S&P, 12 lower. March gold, -$3.40 @$1,124.60; March WTI, down $1.00-$1.10 & the $ Index, off .06 at 98.965
· T-storm Weather: Seasonable to hot upper-level high pressure limits rainfall across Bahia and Center-West / Southeast Brazil over the next 5 to 10 days, aiding early soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting. Further south, cool fronts cause occasional thunderstorms to affect northern Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay over the next 10 days, resulting in near-normal rainfall of 1.75" to 3.50". Rain chances are increased for central and southern Argentina starting Thursday-Friday, with 1.00”- 2.00” most likely the next 10 days. In the U.S., blizzard conditions continue today across the northwest two-thirds of Iowa, southeast third of Minnesota and northwest half of Wisconsin. Snow accumulations of 8” to 16” are possible with strong winds
· CH, Down $.0025 @ $3.71; CK, Steady @ $3.7575. The funds began the week selling 6 K
· SH, Up $.01 @ $8.8175; SK, Up $.01 @ $8.325. Funds sold 2 K SB; 2 K SBM and 2 K SBO
CORN/SORGHUM     ;
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 1.801 bbu; 16/17 carry-out projected at 1.415 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 40 mbu; 16/17 carry-out also pegged at 40 mbu
· Consultant: Strong domestic corn prices in Brazil appear to be encouraging more area being devoted to double-crop
· USDA export inspections: Year-to-date U.S. corn exports of 469 mbu are down 20% vs. last year’s 589 million
· December 2016 corn futures closed at $3.92 on Monday—the first day for calculating the 2016 base crop insurance price. One year ago, December 2015 futures settled at $4.01
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 479 mbu; 16/17 carry-out estimated at 536 mbu
· USDA export inspections: Year-to-date U.S. soybean exports of 1204 mbu are down 13% vs. last year’s 1377 mbu total
· Consultant: Brazil soybean yields still highly variable but improving as harvest moves into medium maturing varieties
· USDA export inspections: Year-to-date U.S. wheat exports of 491 mbu are down 12% from last year’s 558 mbu total
· T-storm Weather: The current storm is forecast to bring 0.75” to 1.50” of water to HRW wheat within the blizzard area, as well as most SRW wheat in Corn Belt and Delta as warmer temps cause precip to fall as rain in thunderstorms
ENERGY
· Down: CLH16, -$0.88, $30.74; EBJ, -$1.00; EBJ-CLH, +$2.50, -$.11; RBH, -$.0395; NGH, -$.039; HOH, -$.0247
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Monday: Chicago gained 3/8; New York and Gulf unchanged; Tampa off ½; Dallas up ¼; and LA was unchanged at $1.52 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs increased: 2014’s added 1/8 to 68-68 ¾; 2015’s gained 3/8 to 67 ¾-68 ½; and 2016’s up 3/8 to 67 ¾-68 ½
· The Mar RBOB/Feb Ethanol inverse increased $.0121 to -$.3350 per gallon yesterday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   </wbr>
· Choice boxed beef values increased $1.76 on Monday, but at $220.52 are still down $3.27 vs. a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $2.64 last week to $136.36/cwt but is $23.00 lower vs. last year
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 44-cents lower on Monday, but at $76.47 is still up $1.07 vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.80 at $61.87. February futures $0.45 lower but are still $3.48 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
· WH, Steady @ $4.752; WK, Down $.0050 @ $4.80 The funds sold 5 K on Monday