HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CH, Down $.01; SH, Down $.0325; WH, Up $.0025; KWH, Down $.0050
· Monday’s global rally failed to sustain a follow-through in Asia overnight as the major exchanges all closed lower: Hang Seng -.25%; Nikkei, -.37% and Shanghai, -.79%. Europe faded as well: Mid-day finds the CAC off .36%; the FTSE is .56% lower and the DAX, down .76%. U.S. futures have the same sentiment: DOW, -4; S&P, -2.25 and the NAS, -10.25. External markets find April crude off $.12; gold is $7.50 higher and the $ Index is up slightly, .057 at 97.445.
· T-storm Weather: Cool fronts dissipate across southern Brazil and Paraguay over the next 7-10 days, producing heavy rain of 2.50" to 5.00" with over 6.00" in some areas (most likely Parana). Exact GFS output shows over 12.00" in / adjacent parts of Parana through 10 days, but the model is likely too wet and suffering from "convective feedback". Further north, GFS model output has been too wet across northern areas of Brazil over most of February, and the location of the upper-level high causes us to continue forecasting below-normal rain in this region. Some thunderstorms continue in Argentina, but a reprieve from heavy rain affects the southern half of its growing region through 7-10 days, while seasonably-heavy thunderstorms occur in the north
· CH, Down $.01 @ $3.6650; CK, Down $.0150 @ $3.7075. The funds began the week buying 5 K
· SH, Down $.0325 @ $8.7775; SK, Down $.0350 @ $8.8075. Fund activity: bought 3 K SB, 2 K SBM and 2 K SBO
· WH, Up $.0025 @ $4.5875; WK, Up $.0150 @ $4.6550. The funds sold an estimated 2 Kon Monday
CORN/SORGHUM         ;
·   ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 1.850 bbu; 16/17 carry-out projected at 1.895 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 40 mbu; 16/17 carry-out also pegged at 40 mbu
· Consultant: Corn production estimate for Argentina has been increased 1.4 MMT to 25.0 million as recent heavy rain was especially beneficial for the late planted crop that is now pollinating and starting to set kernels
· Export inspections: Year-to-date U.S. corn exports of 552 mbu down 19 vs. last year (USDA forecasting 11% decline)
· The 2016 base crop insurance price average of December 2016 corn futures from Feb. 1-22 is $3.8767
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 469 mbu; 16/17 carry-out estimated at 525 mbu
· Export inspections: Year-to-date U.S. soybean exports of 1374 mbu down 9% v. last year (USDA forecasting 8% drop)
· Consultant: Soybean production estimate for Brazil has been increased 1.0 MMT to 99.0 million
· The 2016 base crop insurance price average of November 2016 soybean futures from Feb. 1-22is $8.8725
· Export inspections: Year-to-date U.S. wheat exports of 529 mbu down 13% from last year (USDA forecasting 9% drop)
· T-storm Weather: Heavy rain (1.00”-2.00”) affects U.S. SRW wheat in the Delta & southeast half of Corn Belt Tue-Wed
ENERGY
· Firmer: CLJ16, -$0.12, $33.28; EBJ, +$0.13; EBJ-CLJH, +$1.57, +$.274; RBH, +$.0035; NGH, -0.006; HOH, +$.0079
· Cash ethanol markets were higher on Monday: Chicago gained 1 ¾; New York firmed 1 ½; Gulf up ¼; Dallas and Tampa added ½; and LA was 1 higher at $1.55 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs gained: 2014’s firmed 7/8 to 73-73 ½; 2015’s up 7/8 to 73-73 ½; & 2016’s climbed 5/8 to 73-73 ½
· The March RBOB/March Ethanol inverse gave up $.0232 to start the week, and settled at -$.4264per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY </wbr>
· Choice boxed beef values increased $1.62 on Monday, but at $213.28 are still $2.01 lower compared to last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $2.07 last week to $133.63/cwt but is $25.80 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed 96-cents Monday, but at $75.50 is still down 76-cents vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index decreased $0.02 to $66.38. April futures increased $0.35 and are $2.87 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather