MARKET TREND CH, Down 1, SH, Down 2, WH, Down 2

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND:  CH, Down $.0075;  SH, Down $.02;  WH, Down $.025;  KWH, Unchanged

·         World stocks are mostly higher on the heels of sharp gains in crude oil yesterday.  Support is also tied to news U.S. manufacturing output in January increased 0.5%.  Asia: Shanghai, -0.2%; Hang Seng, +2.3%; Nikkei, +2.3%.  Europe: FTSE, -0.2%; DAX, +1.7%.  U.S. stock futures are showing modest gains following Wednesday steep rally.  U.S. Pre-markets: DOW futures, up 86; NAS, 27 higher; S&P500, +9. Crude oil, +$.83 @ $31.48; Gold, -$7.46 lower @$1,203.64; $ Index, +.055 @ 96.855

·         T-storm Weather: Upper-level high pressure dominates key areas of South America over the next 10 days, keeping temp warmer to occasionally much-warmer than normal; maximums within +/- 6F of 92F on any given day.  Waves of energy trigger heavy thunderstorm clusters every one to two days across Argentina; an additional 2.50" to 5.00" of rain (with locally higher amounts) is probable, on top of the 1.00" to 3.00" that occurred over the last 24 hours. Thunderstorm coverage most likely diminishes with northward extent, especially across northern corn and soybean areas of Brazil. The pattern most likely turns cooler in around next weekend when a cool front sweeps across Argentina, potentially bringing rain to a larger area of Brazil around late-month

·         CH, Down $.0075 @ $3.655; CK, Down $.005 @ $3.71.  Fund buying totaled 8 K on Wednesday          

·         SH, Down $.02 @ $8.805; SK, Down $.0225 @$8.83.  The funds bought 3 K SB, sold 1 K SBM and bought 3 K SBO

·         WH, Down $.025 @ $4.66; WK, Down $.0175 @ $4.7275.   Fund purchases were estimated at 4 K on Wednesday

CORN/SORGHUM                 &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                      

·         ATI Research: U.S. weekly corn exports generally trend seasonally higher but are unlikely to match last year’s near-term average of 35.0 mbu per week; continue to expect 25.0 or so per week

·         Consultant: Despite a few pockets in January/February, the vast majority of Argentina corn is rated good to very good

·         T-storm Weather: It is most likely for below-normal rain and above-normal warmth to occur across northern Brazil over the next 7 to 10 days, aiding corn planting but at the expense of pockets of dryness

·         Ethanol margins: $0.11 per gallon—down from $0.16 last week and $0.35 last year.  EIA report at10:00 a.m. CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. weekly soybean exports are forecast work lower to the mid 30 mbu range short-term

·         Consultant: The last two weekends in Argentina have brought rain to previously dry areas, supporting soybean crop

·         T-storm Weather: Maximum temps in the U.S. central / southern Plains reach the 70s-80s at least twice through Saturday, breaking daily records for HRW wheat from western Kansas and points south

·         ATI Research: U.S. weekly all wheat exports are forecast to average 10-15 mbu per week into early March

ENERGY

·         Mixed:  CLH16, +$0.83, $31.48; EBJ, +$0.79; EBJ-CLH, +$3.82, -$.02; RBH, +$.0124; NGH, 0.02;  HOH, +$.0169

·         EIA estimates: crude, +3.1 (API: -3.3); Gasoline, -0.2 (+0.8); Distillates, -1.7 (-2.0)

·         A steady to firmer trend was noted in cash ethanol on Wednesday: Chicago increased 3; New York up 1 ¼; Gulf steady; Dallas firmed 2; Tampa added 1 ½; and LA was steady at $1.53 ¾ per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s down ½ at 72-73; 2015’s off ½ at 72-73; and 2016’s also declined ½ to 72-73

·         The March RBOB/March Ethanol inverse was $.0006 weaker on Wednesday, settling at -$.3772per gallon   

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                  

·         On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values were 11-cents lower, and at $214.35 are down $3.84 vs. a week ago

·         Estimates for Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Feb 1 on feed, 99.8%; Jan placements, 99.6%; Marketed in Jan 97.8%

·         USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 19-cents Wednesday, but at $76.34 is still 59-cents lower vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index was $0.16 higher at $66.08.  April futures increased $1.00 and is $5.07 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

 

​Brian Basting 
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com 
http://www.advance-trading.com

​

 

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