MARKET TREND CH, Down 1, SH, Down 2, WH, Down 1

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND:  CH, Down $.0075;  SH, Down $.02;  WH, Down $.0125;  KWH, Down $.02

·         A mixed trend is noted in world stocks on Wednesday.  Crude oil prices remained in focus as investors continued to digest a recent agreement by some producers to cap output.  Asia:  Shanghai, +1.1%; Hang Seng, -1.0%; Nikkei, -1.42%.  Europe: FTSE, +1.5%; DAX, +1.7%.  The bounce in U.S. equities looks set to continue, at least for the time being.  U.S. Pre-markets: DOW futures, up 109; NAS, 31 higher; S&P500, +13. Crude oil, -$.67 @ $29.71; Gold, -$3.39 @$1,204.51; $ Index, -.005 @ 96.87

·         T-storm Weather: Upper-level high pressure dominates key areas of South America over the next 10 days, keeping temperatures warmer to occasionally much-warmer than normal; maximums within +/- 6F of 92F on any given day.  The location of the high allows waves of energy to trigger thunderstorms every one to three days across Argentina (starting again today), resulting in above-normal rainfall in most areas.  Thunderstorms also occur further to the north, but the exact setup is uncertain due to the location of the high and weakening of approaching cool fronts; above-normal rainfall remains most likely between key areas of Center-West / Southeast and South Brazil

·         CH, Down $.0075 @ $3.6225; CK, Down $.0075 @ $3.67.  Fund buying totaled 4 K on Tuesday          

·         SH, Down $.02 @ $8.7775; SK, Down $.025 @$8.80.  The funds bought 4 K SB, 3 K SBM and sold 3 K SBO

·         WH, Down $.0125 @ $4.63; WK, Down $.015 @ $4.6750.   Fund purchases were estimated at 4 K on Tuesday

CORN/SORGHUM                                 &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;      

·     ​    ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 1.850 bbu; 16/17 carry-out projected at 1.895 bbu

·         ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 40 mbu; 16/17 carry-out also pegged at 40 mbu

·         Consultant: The most optimistic reports have double-crop corn acreage in Brazil up by as much as 10% vs. last year

·         Export inspections: Year-to-date U.S. corn exports of 516 mbu down 20% vs. last year (USDA forecasting 11% decline)

·         The 2016 base crop insurance price average of December 2016 corn futures from Feb. 1-16 is $3.8752

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 479 mbu; 16/17 carry-out estimated at 536 mbu

·         Export inspections: Year-to-date U.S. soybean exports of 1318 mbu down 11% v. last year (USDA forecasting 8% drop)

·         Consultant: Brazil soybean yields gradually creeping higher as expected as harvest moves into medium maturing beans.  Last major area of Brazil where yields could still be impacted by weather is the northeast (10% of total output) 

·         The 2016 base crop insurance price average of November 2016 soybean futures from Feb. 1-16is $8.8595

·         Export inspections: Year-to-date U.S. wheat exports of 520 mbu down 11% from last year (USDA forecasting 9% drop)

·         T-storm Weather: Much-warmer than normal temps for central/southern U.S. Plains through Sat.; records possible

ENERGY

·         Mixed:  CLH16, +$0.67, $29.71; EBJ, +$0.92; EBJ-CLH, +$3.39, +$.26; RBH, -$.0009; NGH, +.025;  HOH, +$.0024

·         Cash ethanol markets on Tuesday were steady to firmer compared to last Friday: Chicago up 1/8; New York steady; Gulf and Dallas added ½; Tampa steady; and LA was ¼ higher at $1.53 ¾ per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s firmed 3/8 to 72 ¾-73 ¼; 2015’s climbed 3/8 to 72 ¾-73 ¼; & 2016’s up ¼ to 72 ¾-73 ¼

·         The March RBOB/March Ethanol inverse is was $.0049 weaker on Tuesday, settling at -$.41 per gallon   

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      ​                        &​nbsp;           

·    ​;     Choice boxed beef values declined 80-cents on Tuesday, and at $214.49 are the lowest sinceDec. 31

·         5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $2.90 last week to $131.56/cwt and is $30.22 lower vs. last year

·         USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 11-cents lower on Tuesday, and at $76.15 is down 53-cents vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.03 at $65.92.  April futures declined $0.225 but is still $4.23 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

 

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Brian Basting 
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com 
http://www.advance-trading.com

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