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MARKET TREND CH, Down 1, SF, Up 4, WH, Down 1

December 18, 2015 07:13 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND:  CH, Down $.0075; SF, Up $.01;  WH, Down $.0050;  KWH, Down $.01

·         BOJ announces additional stimulus measures—Nikkei falls nearly 2%; Shanghai was little changed and the Hang Seng dropped .53% overnight.  Europe is weaker at mid-day:  DAX, -.17%; FTSE, -.23%; and the CAC 40, -.48%.   Quadruple witching day—Wall Street looks rather anemic with DOW futures down 58; the S&P is 5 ½ lower and the NAS is suggesting a similar drop.  Oil’s over-supply/growth worries remain paramount.  Oil, down $.46/bl; gold, $5.80 to the plus side and the $ Index, -.36 @ 98.96

·         T-storm Weather: A stormy pattern continues across southern Brazil and Paraguay as a series of systems produce above-normal rainfall of 3.00" to 6.00" over the next 10 days, likely continuing the wettest November-to-December since at least the mid-1970s.  Thunderstorms also occur in drier areas to the north as cool fronts shift northward and dissipate, but will consistently fight a persistent feed of dry air that attempts to limit coverage and amounts.  The end result is we continue to forecast 1.75" to 3.50" of rain in driest northern soybean areas of Brazil, but such amounts are below the normal of 2.75" to 3.50" for the period

·         CH, Down $.0075 @ $3.7350;  CK, Down $.0075 @ $3.7950.  The funds bought 3 K on Thursday

·         SF, Up $.01 @ $8.78; SH, Up $.0075 @ $8.7850.  Funds:  bought 5 K SB; 5 K SBM and sold 3 K SBO

·         WH, Down $.0050 @ $4.8350; WK, Down $.01 @ $4.905.  Fund sales were 2 K

CORN/SORGHUM                      &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                

&m​iddot;         March 2016 corn futures made a life-of-contract low of $3.62 ½ Thursday, but closed $0.04 ½ higher at $3.74 ¼

·         ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales for the week ending Dec. 10 of 22.8 mbu were down 44% from the previous week and 47% below the prior 4-week average.  Year-to-date sales are 736 mbu vs. 961 last year (-23%)

·         ATI Research: U.S. sorghum export sales for the week ending Dec. 10 were 6.6 mbu.  That’s up 63% from last week but down 11% from the prior 4-week average.  Year-to-date sales are 189 mbu vs. 200 last year (-5%)

·         T-storm Weather: In Argentina, dry and cool weather transitions to dry and warm weather over the next five days, improving conditions for later corn planting with time

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         January 2016 soybean futures traded $8.54 Thursday—lowest level since Nov. 23—but closed $0.14 ½ higher at $8.77

·         ATI Research: U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending Dec. 10 were 32.6 mbu.  That’s down 39% from last week and 31% below the prior 4-week average.  Year-to-date sales are 1.292 bb vs. 1.510 last year (-14%)

·         ATI Research: U.S. export sales of all wheat for the week ending Dec. 10 were 11.8 mbu.  That’s up 42% from last week but down 22% vs. the prior 4-week average.  Year-to-date sales of 552 mbu vs. 656 last year (-16%)

·         March 2016 MGE wheat futures traded to within ½-cent of the life-of-contract low Thursday but closed up $0.02 ¼

ENERGY

·         Little Weaker: CLF16, -$.46, $34.49; EBF, -$0.28; EBH-CLH, $.30, +$.14; RBF, -$.0011; NGF, -$.015; HOF, +$.0008

·         Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Thursday: Chicago firmed 1 ¼; New York added ¼; Gulf climbed ½; Tampa down 2 ½; Dallas off 1; and LA was 2 ½ lower $1.47 per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2014’s eased 2 ¼ to 65 ¼-66 ¾; 2015’s down 2 ¼ to 65-66 ½; & 2016’s off 2 ¼ to 65-66 ½

·         The Jan RBOB/Jan Ethanol inverse eased further, losing $.0168 to -$.1454 per gallon    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>                        &n​bsp;                     

·        &n​bsp;Choice boxed beef declined another $1.14 on Thu., are $7.32 lower vs. last week & the lowest of calendar year 2015

·         Estimates for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Dec 1 on feed, 100.9%; Nov placements, 95.9%; Marketed in Nov 103.4%

·         On Thursday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 43-cents lower and is down 41-cents from last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.31 at $55.57.  February futures $2.125 lower but $0.205 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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