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Market Bias Corn, Steady to 1 Lower, Soybeans, 4 Higher, Wheat, 7 to 8 Higher

December 29, 2014 08:58 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Bias:  Corn, Steady to ¼ Lower; Soybeans, 4 Higher; Wheat, 7-8 Higher

·         China news agency reports change in bank accounting to free up lendable funds and possibly aiding economic expansion.  Shanghai rises .37%; Hang Seng soars 1.82% while the Nikkei eases a ½% lower.  Europe turns lower after Greece’s politician fail to select a president:  CAC 40, off .26%; DAX, down .72% but FTSE rises .18%.  U.S. pre-market indicators are lower with the DOW off 43; the NAS is 6 lower and the S&P500, down 5.  The $ Index is only slightly weaker, off .01 at 90.3; energy futures are higher and February gold is $2 lower at $1,193.30

·         T-storm Weather: Above-average warmth dominates much of Argentina, Paraguay and South Brazil through today as maximums reach the mid-90s, then breaks over Tuesday-Thursday.  Most rainfall holds until tomorrow through Jan. 1 when a strong cool front sweeps northward and triggers thunderstorms across a large areas resulting in 0.75”-1.50”.  Upper-level high pressure across Center-West and Southeast Brazil results in below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures this week.  Maximums usually reach the mid-90s into the weekend and less than 1.00” of rain falls vs. an average of 1.75”-2.50” 

·         Mar Corn Down $.0025 at $4.1450; May Unch at $4.23.  The funds bought 5 K ahead of Christmas

·         Jan SB UP $.04 at $10.5150; March Up $.04 at $10.58.  Funds: bought 7 K SB; 1 K SBM and 42K SBO

·         Mar Wheat UP $.0725 at $6.18; May Up $.0725 at $6.22.  The funds estimated to be even inWednesday’s trade

CORN/SORGHUM            ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;  

·         December 2015 corn futures closed at $4.39 on Fri.—highest weekly settlement price for the contract since July 3

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 20 to 31 mbu corn 

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 36.6 needed; 31.1 last week.  Milo—3.4 needed; 6.5 last week

·         T-storm Weather: While warm and dry weather this week across Center-West and Southeast Brazil is not ideal as the reproductive period approaches for corn, the region has been wet in recent weeks and months, limiting concern

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         November 2015 soybean futures closed at $10.29 on Fri.—highest weekly settlement for the contract since Sept, 5

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects soybeans, 17 to 24 mbu; soymeal, 50-200; soyoil, 5-30

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Soybeans, 20.4 needed; 82.1 last week

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 9-17 mbu for all wheat

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 19.0 needed; 16.2 last week

·         T-storm Weather: Total of 32% & 17% of U.S. HRW and SRW wheat production are experiencing agricultural drought

ENERGY

·         Futures are higher this morning: QCLG15, +$0.66 at $55.38; QRBG, +$0.0094; QNGG, +$.018; and QHOG, +$.0156

·         Cash ethanol markets were steady to higher on Friday: Chicago, New York, Tampa and Dallas all up 1; Gulf unchanged; and LA was also a penny firmer at $1.80 per gallon

·         RINs were steady to lower: 2013’s unch at 70 ½-71 ½; 2014’s steady at 71-72; and 2015’s down ½ at 70 ½-71 ½

·         Declining gasoline prices expanded January ethanol’s premium to RBOB by $.053 to -$.1493/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 ​                         ​                 <​/wbr>

·         Choice boxed beef values increased 58-cents on Friday and are $2.57 higher compared to last week

·         December live cattle futures traded to $164.70 on Friday, which is the highest price for the contract since Dec. 5

·         USDA pork carcass cutout value increased 18-cents on Friday but are 11-cents lower vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.78 at $79.81.  February futures up $0.30 to $81.60 and are $1.79 above the index

·         Broiler egg set last week was up 2.0% from last year but 0.1% below the prior 4-week average

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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