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Marke Trend: Corn, CN Up 2, Soybeans, SN up 4 , WN, Up 2, KWN, Up

June 16, 2015 07:13 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CN Up 2 ¼; Soybeans, SN up 4 ¾; WN, Up 2 ¾; KWN, Up 4 ¼   

·         Asia did not far well overnight as in addition to Greece and Fed uncertainty in the Homeland, margin financing concerns and a flurry of IPOs brought down Shanghai, losing 3.44%.  The Hang Seng Index fell 1.1% and the Nikkei loist .64%.  Europe is cast in a sea of red:  DAX, -1.06%; CAC 40, -.92% and the FTSE, -.56% as Greece seems perhaps, contentious.  Fed policy watchers will be on the look-out for possible signs of a rate hike in the offing.  401-K’s are likely to suffer further today—DOW futures, off 91; S&P, -1 and the NAS, -28 ½. $ Index, +.118 @ 95.22; gold, -$3.80 @ $1,181.50 and energies, higher with July crude up $.40

·         T-storm Weather: Over the next week, widespread rain occurs away from the western Plains with highest totals and amounts from eastern areas of the OK-TX through the southeast half of the Corn Belt, and a secondary area of heavy rain from / near South Dakota into the northwest Corn Belt.  A strong cool front breaks the pattern early next week.  At the same time, hot upper-level high pressure forms somewhere in the southwest or south-central U.S.  Waves of energy flow along the edge to trigger rain with at least near-average amounts most probable across the northern halves of the Corn Belt & Plains with drier & hotter weather south

·         July Corn Up $.0225 at $3.5050; Sep Up $.0275 at $3.5550.  The funds opened the week selling 5 K      

·         July SB Up $.0475 at $9.4250; Aug Up $.0575 at $9.2650. The funds:  sold 2 K SB; 3 K SBM and 3 K SBO

·         July Wheat Up $.0275 at $4.92; Sep Up $.0275 at $4.98.  The funds sold 5 K on Monday  

CORN/SORGHUM                    ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                   

·         ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 carryout up 19 mbu vs. last week to 1.936 bbu; 15/16 up 169 to 1.991  

·         ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 14/15 carryout unchanged at 7 mbu

·         USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent corn crop ratings down a point to 73% with ATI crop estimate at 13.690 bbu

·         Sorghum planting: 71% compared to 74% last year and the 5-year avg. of 80%

·         T-storm Weather: Over the next week, heavy rainfall of 2.00”to 5.00” is probable across the eastern third to half of Texas and points northeast through the southeast third to half of the Corn Belt

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Updated U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 10 mbu to 326; 15/16 pegged at 445 mbu

·         USDA Crop Progress pegs U.S. soybean planting as of June 14 at 87% vs. 91% last year and the 5-year average of 90%  Soybean emergence at 74% vs. 81% in 2014 and the 5-year avg. of 77%.  Good/Excellent crop ratings 2 points to 67%

·         ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat crop model down 4 mbu to 1.454 bbu; HRW, 857; SRW, 402; and White, 195

·         ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet, 14/15 carryout at 279 mbu; 15/16 carryout is forecast at 328 mbu

·         T-storm Weather: Key HRW wheat in western areas of central/southern Plains likely miss new rains short-term

ENERGY

·         Mostly firm: LN15, +$0.40 at $59.92; EBQ, -$0.17; EBQ-CLQ, +3.343, -$.52, RBN, +$.0109;NGN, +$.031; HON, +$.001

·         Weakness persisted in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago off 2 ¼; New York eased 3; Gulf and Tampa down 4; Dallas dropped 2; and LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.61 per gallon

·         RINs were firmer with 2013, 2014 and 2015 each up ¼.  All were quoted at 44 ½-45 ½

·         The July RBOB/July Ethanol spread narrowed in ever-so slightly, $.002 to $.6410 on Monday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;          

·         Choice boxed beef values were up $1.61 on Monday to $247.33 and are $3.22 higher compared to a week ago

·         5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price declined $2.11 last week to $153.48/cwt but is up $4.00 vs. a year ago

·         On Monday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined $0.26 and at $83.71, is 38-cents lower vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.27 at $81.40.  July futures $0.85 lower at $77.20 and are $4.20 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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