HIGHLIGHTS

·         6:00 AM Market Trend:  Corn, Up 2-3; Soybeans, Up 5-6, led by old crop; Wheat, 2-3 Higher

·         S&P cuts Russia’s credit rating, warns of capital flight and investments risks; yes, Vladimir, it is a global economy.  Most overseas  markets ease with the Hang Seng sliding 1.5% and Shanghai 1% lower.  The Nikkei was about the lone exception, edging .17% higher.  Europe is noticeably weaker:  DAX, off 1.06%; CAC-40, down .45% and the FTSE, off .28%. Some move to safety as gold rises $6.32; energies, however are mostly lower and the $ Index, off .102 at 79.91.  Barometers for U.S. markets also look weaker:  Dow futures, off 49; the S&P, down 4 ½ and the Nasdaq, -10.75

·         T-storm Weather: Breezy and increasingly warm weather follow the exit of rain across the Corn Belt today and continues through Monday as a very large system pulls warmth and humidity northward; maximums reach the 70s-80s across a large area to aid planting in areas that are not too wet.  The very large system interacts with warmth and humidity within Sunday-Tuesday to develop heavy rainfall of 1.00” – 3.00” within the northern Plains, Corn Belt and Delta.  As the system slows and potentially stalls, it causes sharply cooler weather to envelop most areas for around five days (beginning April 29-30).  Coolness develops an unstable air mass that will make it easy for pockets of showers to develop within April 30 – May 2; scattered 0.20” – 0.50” amounts most common, especially from the northern Plains through the Corn Belt where it will be the coolest

·         May Corn Up $.0225 at $5.0350; July Up $.0225 at $5.0950.  The funds sold 3 K yesterday

·         May SB Up $.06 at $14.78; July Up $.0525 at $14.7525.  Fund activity:  bought 2 K SB; 2 K SBM; even on SBO

·         May Wheat Up $.0225 at $6.9125; July Up $.0225 at $6.9875.  The funds bought 4 K on Thursday

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·         ATI Research: Old-crop corn export sales of 24.4mbu were in line with trade expectations of 20-31, up 16% from last week but down 30% from prior 4-week average.  Milo export sales for 13/14 were strong at 9.9mbu; China bought 9.6

·         Active corn planting this week across parts of Central Illinois, which should be seen in Monday’sCrop Progress report

·         T-storm Weather: Following cool weather next week for Corn Belt, temps revert to average bynext Sunday (May 4)     

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Although old-crop soybean export sales total was a marketing year low, it was still positive (barely) at 29 thou bu.  Much more impressive were soybean meal sales of 186.3 K MT, which are a 15-year seasonal high

·         T-storm Weather: Argentina double-crop soybeans experience stress-free temperatures for filling the next 7-10 days

• ATI Research: Fairly good old-crop wheat export sales of 12.5mbu (trade est 7-15); new-crop sales a bit light at 10.0
• T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms this weekend focus just north and east of key HRW wheat areas

ENERGY

·         Futures are mostly lower with  QCLM14, -$0.48 at $101.46; QRBM, -$0.0173; QNGM, +$.004; and QHOM, -$.0175

·         Downward trend in cash ethanol prices continues: Chicago and Gulf dropped 8; Dallas slid 14; Tampa off 7; NY lost 4; and LA prices were 8 lower at $2.69 ½ per gallon

·         RINs dipped slightly: 2012’s off ¼ to 41 ½-44; 2013’s down 1 ½ at 42-44; and 2014’s were one lower at 41-42

·         The May RBOB/ethanol spread gained $.0460 per gallon, rising to $.8725 on Thursday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    ​                        &​nbsp;              

• Today’s USDA Cattle on Feed report could show first year-to-year increase in cattle on feed in 20 months
• Choice boxed beef values increased $1.16 yesterday and have gained $11.68 over the last nine trading days
• The pork carcass cutout eased 24-cents yesterday and has declined $4.67 over the last four days
• The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price eased 68-cents yesterday to $115.50

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather