HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 1-2; Soybeans, SF Up 2-3, SH, Down 3/4; Wheat, Up 4-5
· Another down day in energy futures has global deflationary fears on the rise. In Asia, the Nikkei fell over 3%; the Hang Seng dropped nearly 1% while Shanghai eked out a .07% gain overnight. Europe is mixed: DAX, +.54%; CAC 40, +.25% and the FTSE, .62% lower. Pre-market indicators for the U.S. opening have the DOW, +18; the NAS is leaning 3 ½ higher and the S&P, +2.50 to the plus side. U.S. Nov factory orders data out today: 3rd month-on-month decline is expected. Externals: $ Index, +.168 to 91.79; gold, +$5 to $1,209.10 and energy futures are all lower.
· T-storm Weather: Although popcorn-variety (isolated) thunderstorms affect Center-West Brazil through 10 days, most of Center-West and Southeast Brazil average drier and warmer than usual as upper-level high pressure dominates; 0.75" – 1.50" occurs, compared to an average of around 3.00". A parade of systems flow along the southern edge of the high, triggering numerous heavy thunderstorm clusters from central / northern Argentina into South Brazil over the period; pockets of excessive wetness likely expand from 2.00" – 5.00" amounts; around 1.75" – 2.25" is average
· Mar Corn Up $.0125 at $4.0725; May Up $.0150 at $4.1625. The funds bought an estimated 10 K on Monday
· Jan SB Up $.0250 at $10.12; May Down $.0075 at $10.4450. Del’y: SB, 0; SBO, 0. Funds: bought 15 K SB; 9 K SBM; 7 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.0525 at $5.9425; May up $.0425 at $5.98. Fund buying was pegged at 6 K to begin the week
CORN/SORGHUM   ;
· December 2015 corn futures closed at $4.29 on Mon.; on Jan. 6, 2014, the December 2014 contract settled at $4.55 ¼
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 use up 78 mbu from last week, carryout dn 78mbu to 2.114 Bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 14/15 use steady vs. last week, carryout unchanged at 23 mbu
· T-storm Weather: First-crop corn in Minas Gerais at highest risk of stress the next 10 days due to warm/dry conditions
· Private consultant: Late planted double-crop corn in Brazil runs greater risk of low yields due to dry weather at filling
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Updated U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 use unch from last week, carryout steady at 390 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Pockets of excessive wetness possible in northern Argentina next 10 days due to 2.00”-5.00” rain
· Private consultant: The current drying trend impacting soybeans in central Brazil needs to be watched
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet, 14/15 carryout at 167 mbu; 15/16 carryout is forecast at 156 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Patchy winterkill is probable in U.S. wheat areas that do not have deep snowpack this week due to extreme coldness Wed-Thurs, most notably including SRW from eastern Missouri through the southern Corn Belt
ENERGY
· Futures are again weaker: QCLG15, -$0.97 at $49.06; QRBG, -$0.0197; QNGG, -$.024; andQHOG, -$.0230
· A weaker trend was seen in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago down 5 ¼; New York eased 4; Gulf of 1 ½; Tampa and Dallas slipped 2 ½; and LA was 9 ½ lower at $1.72 per gallon
· RINs were higher: 2013’s up 5 to 77-84; 2014’s gained 4 to 78-85; and 2015’s climbed 3 ½ to 78-83
· The Feb RBOB/Jan Ethanol spread inverted further, up $.026 to -$.2260/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY </wbr>
· Choice boxed beef values were 33-cents higher on Monday compared to last Friday
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price increased $3.99 last week to $165.94/cwt and is up $28.41 vs. last year
· USDA pork carcass cutout value increased 18-cents on Monday but is $3.64 lower compared to a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index down 20-cents at $77.91. February futures $1.375 lower to $79.925 and $2.015 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather