HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 1-2; Soybeans,1-2 Lower Old, 4-6 Lower New; Wheat, 2-3 Higher
· Al-Qaida related militants reportedly take over Iraq city of Mosul, a key gateway for oil shipments; World Bank reduces 2014 growth forecast from 3.2% to 2.8%--tough U.S. winter weather and political unrest in the Ukraine. Asia mostly higher with Shanghai up .12%; the Nikkei posts a ½% gain but the Hang Seng eases .25%. Europe is in the red: FTSE. -.49%; DAX, -.77% and the CAC-40, down .73%. Futures for major U.S. indices auger for a lower start: S&P, -6 ½; Dow, -45 and the NAS, -12 ½. Energy futures ranging from mostly to all higher; gold will cost $3.20/oz more this morning and the $ Index is off .035 at 80.905
· T-Storm Weather: Areas of rain focus on varying areas of the central U.S. through Friday. A warmer pattern begins this weekend, which combines with wet soil profiles and northward-flowing air to sharply increase mugginess. Waves of energy trigger thunderstorms from this weekend forward, and then utilize mugginess to fuel large clusters from time to time – especially in central and northern growing areas. Only a small proportion of corn, soybeans, and spring wheat were too dry or too wet over the last 30 days, but upcoming rains are generally unneeded because it would develop pockets of excessive wetness
· July Corn Up $.0175 at $4.4725; September Up $.0175 at $4.43. Fund selling totaled 6 K on Tuesday
· July Soybeans Down $.0175 at $14.6075; August Down $.01 at $13.9425. The funds bought 4 K SB; 4 K SBM; sold 3 K SBO
· July Wheat Up $.03 at $6.0425; September Up $.03 at $6.16. Fund selling again totaled 5 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA WASDE report out at 11:00 CDT: Avg. trade guess for U.S. 13/14 corn carryout, 1.164Bbu; 14/15, 1.709Bbu
· July 2014 corn futures traded to $4.44 ¾ on Tuesday, which is the lowest level since February 3
· ATI Research: Expect near-term U.S. corn exports of 35-40mbu per week; 23-25 Gulf, 8-10 PNW and 4-6 Interior
· Ethanol margins remain strong: $1.01 per gallon vs. $0.86 last week & $0.32 last year. EIA report out at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA WASDE report out at 11:00 CDT: Avg. trade guess for U.S. 13/14 soybean carryout, 127mbu; 14/15, 319mbu ATI
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean exports are expected to range from 1-5mbu per week
· Private consultant: Argentina farmer holding soybeans as a hedge against further peso devaluation and rising inflation
· USDA WASDE report out at 11:00 CDT: Avg. trade guess for U.S. 13/14 all wheat carryout, 590mbu; 14/15, 547mbu
· ATI Research: Near-term all wheat exports likely to continue to average near 20mbu per week
· T-storm Weather: Coverage of topsoil wetness in U.S. HRW wheat areas is the highest in more than 180 days
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly higher: QCLN14, +$0.17 at $104.52; QRBN, +$0.0127; QNGN, -$.001; andQHON, +$.0120
· Additional declines noted in cash ethanol markets Tuesday: Chicago slipped 2 ½; Gulf down 5 ½; Dallas off 3; New York eased ¼; Tampa dipped 4 ½; and LA was 2 lower at $2.54 per gallon
· EIA estimates (API): Crude, -1.7 mb (+1.5); gasoline, +0.6 (-0.4); distillates, +1.2 (-0.3); etoh output 925-935 Kbpd
· Firmer trend in RINs: 2012’s gained 1 ¾ to 46 ½-47; 2013’s up 1 ¼ at 46 ½-48; and 2014’s were 2 higher at 46-47
· The July RBOB/July ethanol spread was little changed, up about a ¼ cent to $.8295/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values firmed 58-cents yesterday and have increased $1.65 over the last two days
· Cash cattle markets are quiet with feedyards asking $147 while packers bid $142. Cattle traded last week at $145
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.02 yesterday and is up $3.49 from a week earlier
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained $1.48 yesterday to $114.72
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather