HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, Down 2-3;  Soybeans, Down 15-16; Wheat, Down 4-5

·         Much of Asia is closed today, leaving Shanghai little changed (+.03%) as China’s April manufacturing index fell short of expectations.  Europe is mixed this morning:   DAX, +.06%; FTSE, -.16% and the CAC 40, -.06%.  However, U.S. futures suggest a positive opening with the Dow pointing to a 21 point gain; the S&P, +2.50 and the Nasdaq, +9. Some of the optimism is said to be tied to yesterday’s Institute for Supply Mgmt’s service industry index showing a gain from March’s 53.1, to 55.2 in April, a strong indicator of expansion.  Gold is $1.70 weaker; energy futures are higher and the $ Index is off ¼ point at 79.395

·         T-Storm Weather: Intense heat combines with gusty winds to stress HRW wheat in the southwest Plains through tomorrow. Warmth envelops the Corn Belt through Thursday to warm topsoil and aid planting, but widespread rainfall of 0.50” – 1.00” follows Thursday-Friday as a system chugs eastward.  The same system combines with showers over the next few days to ultimately produce 0.67” – 1.33” in the northern Plains. The end result is that conditions for planting remain challenging in the north this week, and deteriorate in the Corn Belt and Delta later this week

·         May Corn Down $.0250 at $5.0075; July Down $.0325 at $5.0475.  The funds were active buyersMonday, at 10,000 contracts

·         May SB Down $.15 at $14.57; July Down $.1550 at $14.4775. Funds sold 5 K SB, 3 K SBM and 3 K SBO

·         May Wheat Down $.0450 at $7.1675; July Down $.0475 at $7.2450.  The funds bought 7 K to begin the week

CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA Crop Progress: U.S. corn planting at 29% complete as of Sunday vs. 11% in 2013 and the 5-year average of 42%.   
• ATI Research: Updated balance sheet for 13/14 corn carryout dn 25mbu to 1.236Bbu; 14/15 dn like amt. to 1.605Bbu
• Export Inspections; Corn, 48.8mbu (35.2 needed) with zero to China; Milo, 3.4 (3.6), China in for 3.4 million bushels
• Average trade guess for 13/14 U.S. corn carryout is 1.304Bbu (vs. 1.331 in April); 14/15 pegged at 1.641Bbu    

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. soybean planting at 5% complete vs. 2% in 2013 and the 5-year average of 11%.

·         ATI Research: Updated balance sheet for 13/14 soybeans carryout unch at 116mbu; 14/15 also stable at 316mbu

• Crop consultant increases Argentina soybean production estimate by 0.5 MMT TO 54.0
• Export Inspections: Soybeans, 3.7mbu (3.3 needed) with 32 thou bu to China (vs. zero last week)
• Average trade guess for 13/14 U.S. soybean carryout is 133mbu (vs. 135 in April); 14/15 pegged at 297mbu
• ATI Research: HRW harvested acreage lowered 1.05 million acres with crop est at 762mbu; SRW, 453; White, 198
• Average trade guess for 13/14 U.S. all wheat carryout is 585mbu (vs. 583 in April); 14/15 pegged at 568mbu

ENERGY

·         Futures are higher: QCLM14, +$0.16 at $99.64; QRBM, +$0.0051; QNGM, +$.033; andQHOM, +$.0106

·         Cash ethanol markets were weaker on Monday: Chicago down a dime; Gulf off 12; Dallas lost 8; New York dipped 16; Tamps slipped 6; and LA was 6 lower at $2.24/gallon

·         Firmer trend in RINs: 2012’s up 1 ½ to 41 ½-42 ½; 2013’s up 1 to 42-42 ¾; and 2014’s gained 1 to 41-41 ¾

·         The June RBOB/June ethanol spread surged over a dime to $.9032/gallon on Monday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 ​;                         ​;                 

• ​ After falling $5.98 over the previous three trading days, Choice boxed beef values firmed 52-cents yesterday
• The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $147.98, up $1.64 from the week before
• The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.62 yesterday and has increased $1.67 over the last two trading days
• The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained $1.09 yesterday to $113.31

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather