HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 1; Soybeans, Down 2-10; Wheat, Up 3-4
· Chinese mfg index reaches 27-month high; HSBC factory report reveals best rate of gain in 8 months; however Shanghai closed .74% lower; the Hang Seng lost .91% and the Nikkei fell .63%, under pressure from yesterday’s U.S. free-fall. Europe did not view Wall Street’s end-of-the-month performance with much optimism: the DAX is down close to 2% at mid-day; the CAD-40 is off 1.5% and Britain’s FTSE is .64% lower. And, it looks as if the market will close out the week on a negative note: Dow futures point to a 106 lower start; S&P futures are 13 in the red and the NASDAQ, 28.50. Reasons: poor QII earnings; Russia/West tensions escalate; Fed stimulus program nearing the end. Relief at the pump, perhaps: energies are down; gold, +$3.80; $ Index, +0.017
· T-Storm Weather: Cool weather continues through Sunday, followed by a milder pattern. Mainly dry weather continues through at least Monday as two waves of energy approach. The influx of humidity into these systems is not expected to be ideal. That said, some thunderstorms are likely. We are forecasting scattered 0.50” – 1.00” amounts next week with the best chance for over 1.00” in northern areas withinTuesday-Friday
· Sep Corn Down $.0050 at $3.5650; December Down $.01 at $3.66. The funds sold 6 K Thursday
· August Down $.0225 at $12.2225; Sep Down $.0975 at $10.90. Funds sold 2 K SB; bought 1 K SBM; even SBO yesterday
· Sep Wheat Up $.0350 at $5.3375; December Up $.0275 at $5.530. The funds were again buyers of 3 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· T-storm Weather: July will rank with the 5 coolest since 1895 and 3 coolest since 1960 across the corn and soybean belt. The month will rank around #20 driest of the last 120 years and #5 driest since 1960
· Updated NWS August forecast: Below- to much-below-normal temperatures for northwest Corn Belt
· December 2014 corn futures settled $3.67 Thurs.; December 2013 futures closed at $4.79 on same date in 2013
· U.S. new-crop corn export sales as of July 24 were 275mbu compared to 358 last year and the 5-year avg. of 248 mil
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· T-storm Weather: Topsoil dryness continues to increase for U.S. soybeans and remains higher than at the same time last year; 39% received less than 0.50” of rain within the last 14 days
· U.S. new-crop soybean export sales as of July 24 were 588mbu vs. 551 last year and the 5-year avg. of 401 mil
· ATI Research: Marketing year high in U.S. all wheat export sales of 29.4mbu; Western Hemisphere major buyers
· Updated NWS August forecast: Above-normal precipitation for most wheat producing areas of Southern Plains
· Chicago July 2015 wheat futures settled $5.95 ¾ Thurs.; July 2014 futures closed at $6.89 on same date in 2013
ENERGY
· Futures are lower: QCLU14, -$.82 at $97.35; QRBU, -$0.0098; QNGU, -$.041; and QHOU, -$.0030
· Additional weakness developed Thursday in cash ethanol markets: Chicago down 4 ¾; Gulf declined 4; New York dropped 3; Dallas and Tampa slipped a nickel; and LA was 4 ¾ lower at $2.27 ½ per gallon
· RINs down fractionally: 2012’s off ¼ at 51 ½-53; 2013’s eased ½ at 51 ½-53; and 2014’s dipped ¾ to 51 ½-53
· The August RBOB/August perked back up, gaining $.0268 to $.7371/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values gained 74-cents yesterday to a sixth daily record high of $263.66
· Cash cattle are quiet with feedyard asking $168 to $170, but no packer bids. Cattle traded last week at mostly $163
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value fell 92-cents yesterday and has declined $2.50 over the last two days
· CME Lean Hog Index down $1.08 to $126.83. August future down $1.125 to $118.025 and are $8.805 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather