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Corn, CK Up 1 to 2, Soybeans, SK Up 2, Wheat, WK Up 4 to 5

March 26, 2015 07:08 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CK Up 1-2; Soybeans, SK Up 2; Wheat, WK Up 4-5

·         Wednesday’s U.S. nose-dive and $ weakness are doing little for world bourses. And, Saudi Arabia’s military foray into Yemen is adding to market uncertainty.  Shanghai managed a .59% gain but the Nikkei backed off 1.39% and the Kospi, down 1%.  All of Europe is off 1% or more as the noon-hour approaches, led by a 1.39% decline in the DAX.  Pre-markets here aren’t pretty either:  DOW futures, -125; S&P500, -13 ¼ and the NAS, down 44.7.  $ Index: off ¾ of a point to 97.055; energies, higher; gold, +$10.40

·         T-storm Weather: Despite coolness through today, temperatures remain mild across HRW wheat areas of the Plains through Sunday.  Arctic air retreats from all areas next week, causing the jet stream to flatten as temperatures warm to near- or above-average.  The setup then becomes conducive to thunderstorm clusters in varying areas, especially to the east of HRW wheat where humidity levels will be highest.  A round of heavy rain would be ideal across a large area because the coverage of agricultural drought includes 56% of U.S. production – the highest coverage for February, March, April, May, or June within the last three years

·         May Corn Up $.0150 at $3.9650; July Up $.0150 at $4.0450. The funds bought 2 K at midweek 

·         May SB Up $.02 at $9.8075; July Up $.0175 at $9.8425.  The Funds sold 2 K SB; 1 K SBM and were even on SBO yesterday

·         May Wheat Up $.05 at $5.24; July Up $.0425 at $5.28.  The Funds sold 3 K on Wednesday

CORN/SORGHUM                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;               

·&nb​sp;        Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 16 to 24 mbu corn

·         Ethanol grind: 953,000 barrels per day for week end March 20--up 6 thou vs. last week and 7.7% higher vs. last year

·         USDA Prospective Plantings: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. corn acreage, 88.9 mil (range 87.0-89.9) v. 90.6 mil last year

·         USDA Grain Stocks: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. corn stocks, 7.609 bbu (range 7.459-7.800) v. 7.008 bbu last year

·         T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms dot second-crop corn in Center-West Brazil through 7-10 days as dry upper-level high pressure stays too far east to suppress rainfall.  Unusually intense or prolonger heat is not foreseen

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects soybeans, 4 to 11 mbu; soymeal, 50-150; soyoil, 0-20

·         USDA Prospective Plantings: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. soybean acreage, 86.0 mil (range 83.1-88.0) v. 83.7 last year

·         USDA Grain Stocks: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. soybean stocks, 1.348 bbu (range 1.250-1.413) v. 0.994 bbu last year

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 7-15 mbu for all wheat

·         USDA Prospective Plantings: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. all wheat acreage, 55.6 mil (range 55.0-56.8) v. 56.8 last year

·         USDA Grain Stocks: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. all wheat stocks, 1.141 bbu (range 1.083-1.200) v. 1.057 bbu last year

·         T-storm Weather: 60% of U.S. HRW wheat received less than one-half of its average rainfall over the last 30 days

ENERGY

·         Futures are firmer: CLK15, +$1.92 at $51.13; RBK, +.0342; NGK, +$.003 and HOK, +$.0570

·         A mostly lower trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago down ¾; New York up 1 ½; Gulf slipped 1 ¾; Tampa off ½; Dallas eased a penny; and LA was 2 lower at $1.65 ½ per gallon

·         RINs were higher: 2013’s up 1 ¼ at 68-69; 2014’s gained 1 to 69-71; and 2015’s climbed 1 ¼ to 68-69 ½

·         A 2.4% inventory increase contributed to a 4 ¾ cent increase in the April RBOB/April Ethanol spread to $.3365/gal

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;     

·&nb​sp;        On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values were up $3.68 and are $4.71 higher vs. a week ago

·         Cash cattle trade has been light so far this week in the South with asking prices at $165.and higher 

·         The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.19 on Wed. and is $2.11 lower compared to last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.51 at $61.31.  April futures $1.225 higher at $59.825 and $1.485 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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