HIGHLIGHTS
· 6:00 AM Market Trend: Higher; Wheat, 6+ Higher Corn, 2 Higher Old; 2-3 Lower New; Soybeans, 10-11
· Much of Asia was higher overnight; the Hang Seng rose 1.09%; Shanghai posted a .33% gain while the Nikkei bucked the trend, losing over 2% over disappointment from the lack of further stimulus measures. Europe responded positively with early trading finding the FTSE ¾% higher; the DAX, up .29% and the CAC-40, +.48%. U.S. futures point to a firmer opening: Dow, +28; S&P, +1 ¼ and the Nasdaq, up 7. Gold is little changed at $1,209.50/oz; energy futures have moved from mostly higher to mixed and the $ Index is up .087 at 80.07.
· T-storm Weather: Sharp warming begins today across the central U.S. and continues into the weekend. Although mildness continues in southern areas next week, cool fronts drop through the Corn Belt to keep temperatures near-usual (above-average next five days, then below-average for the following five days). A strong system moves across the central U.S. Sunday-Monday, and another system probably follows around next Thursday. The overall setup, recent history, and climatology favor the Corn Belt and Delta for unneeded rainfall of around 0.75” – 1.50” Sunday-Monday, while less to much less than 0.33” affects HRW wheat in the central / southern Plains. The setup for next Thursday appears similar
· May Corn Up $.02 at $5.09; July Up $.0150 at $5.1450 The funds bought a total of 6 K Tuesday
· May SB Up $.1100 at $14.9350; July Up $.1025 at $14.7175. Fund activity: bought 8 K SB; 3 K SBM and 6 K SBO
· May Wheat Up $.0625 at $6.8725; July Up $.0575 at $6.95. The funds acquired 3 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA Supply/Demand report at 11 AM CDT: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. corn carryout, 1.403Bbu vs. 1.456 in March
· ATI Research: Current level of outstanding corn export sales may be the best in 25 years
· T-storm Weather: Extreme rainfall event In Argentina ending but completely dry weather needed for corn harvest to resume given that several locations received 5.00”–10.00” thus far in April vs. an avg. for entire month of around 3.5”
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA Supply/Demand report at 11 AM CDT: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. soybean carryout, 139mbu vs. 145 in March
· Crop consultant expressing some concern about possible soybean crop losses in Argentina due to flooding
· USDA Supply/Demand report at 11 AM CDT: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. wheat carryout, 581mbu vs. 558 in March
· ATI Research: Model pegs winter wheat at 1.500Bbu (1.534 in ’13): HRW, 854 (744); SRW, 448 (565); White, 197 (225)
ENERGY
· Futures are mixed: QCLK14, -$0.05 at $102.51; QRBK, +$0.0066; QNGK, -$.012 and QHOK, +$.0047
· Another sharp downturn in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago slipped 21; Gulf dropped 20; Dallas off 17; Tampa down 19; NY plummeted 32; and LA was 18 ½ lower at $3.08 ½ per gallon
· EIA estimates (API): Crude, +1.0 mb (+7.1); gasoline, -0.7 (-3.7); distillates, -0.1 (+0.3)
· RINs near steady: 2012’s down ½ at 49-51; 2013’s unchanged at 50-51; and 2014’s off ¼ to 47 ½-48
· May RBOB/May ethanol spread closed at $.6961 per gallon yesterday, an increase of $.1281
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values fell 94-cents yesterday and has declined $6.65 over the last four trading days
· Cash cattle markets are quiet with feedyards asking $150, but no packer bids. Cattle traded last week at mostly $148
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value eased 5-cents yesterday and have fallen $1.16 over the last two days
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell $1.27 yesterday to $123.48
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather