HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, ¼ Lower to ¼ Higher; Soybeans, 3-7 Lower; Wheat, Up 1-2
· Market perception that things are becoming a little less tense in the Russian/Ukraine stand-off seemingly boosted global markets overnight. Shanghai finished a strong .92% to the plus side; the Hang Seng gained .62% and the Nikkei posted a +.02% close. Trade is Europe is also positive: The DAX leads with a .89% rise; France’s CAC 40 is up .73% and the FTSE is .54% higher. Futures point to a .3% higher start for both the Dow and S&P. Both the $ Index (-.042 at 81.605) and gold (down $2.90 to $1,311/oz) are a little weaker; energy futures are trading higher with the exception of Nat Gas
· T-Storm Weather: Coolness exits through today. A seasonable to warm pattern follows as maximums oftentimes reach the 80s-90s. The warmer pattern aligns the jet stream favorably for thunderstorm clusters to occasionally form, though pinpointing rainfall timing, location, and coverage is difficult. Widespread coverage of near-average rainfall (0.75” - 1.25”) is most probable through 7-10 days with highest chances initially across the southwest half of corn and soybeans into early next week
· Sep Corn Down $.0025 at $3.6175; December Down $.0025 at $3.7325. The funds bought 5 K on Thursday
· Sep Soybeans Down $.0275 at $10.9550; Nov Down $.0475t $10.5125. Funds bought 5 K SB; 5 K SMB and sold 5 K SBO
· Sep Wheat Up $.0175 at $5.39; December Up $.0125 at $5.54. Fund activity indicated net buying of 4 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: The daily high temperature in Bloomington, IL has been at or below the average for 44 consecutive days by an average. of 7.0 degrees
· U.S. corn in the dough stage as of Aug. 17 likely to range from 70-75% compared to 49% last year & 5-year avg. of 63%
· December 2014 corn futures settled $3.73 ½ Thurs.; December 2013 futures closed at $4.55 ¼ on same date in 2013
· U.S. new-crop corn export sales as of Aug. 7 were 336mbu compared to 399 last year and the 5-year avg. of 289 mil
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· NOPA July crush data out later this morning—expected to be down 2.7 mbu from June t0 116.0 mbu with oil stocks falling 160 bil lbs to 1.685 billion
· U.S. soybeans setting pods as of Aug. 17 likely to range from 82-87% compared to 70% last year & 5-year avg. of 79%
· U.S. new-crop soybean export sales as of Aug. 7 were 665mbu vs. 658 last year and the 5-year avg. of 490 mil
· November 2014 soybean futures settled $10.56 Thurs.; November 2013 closed at $12.39 on same date in 2013
· ATI Research: While export interest in most U.S. wheat classes is routine or weak, purchases of soft red winter remain strong. For example, sales over the last 4 weeks to destinations other than China are a 6-year high of 25mbu
· Chicago July 2015 wheat futures settled $5.95 ¼ Thurs.; July 2014 futures closed at $6.61 ½ on same date in 2013
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly higher: QCLU14, +$.01 to $95.59; QRBU, +$0.0157; QNGU, -$.065; and QHOU, +$.0074
· Steady to higher trend in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago up 4; Gulf added a penny; Dallas gained 4 ½; Tampa climbed 5 ½; New York was unchanged; and LA was 1 ¾ higher at $2.45 per gallon
· RINs were lower again: 2012’s down 1 at 49-51; 2013’s off 1 ¼ at 49-51; and 2014’s eased 1 ½ to 49-50 ½
· The September RBOB/Ethanol spread fell for the 5th straight day, losing $.0878 to $.4956/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values eased 14-cents yesterday and have lost $5.67 over the last five trading days
· Cash cattle continued to lightly trade yesterday at $155, steady with earlier in the week, but down $5 from last week
· After falling $11.76 over the previous four days, the USDA pork carcass cutout value rebounded $1.67 yesterday
· CME Lean Hog Index down $1.46 to $116.42. October future down $2.15 to $95.25 and are $21.17 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather