HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, 1 Lower; Soybeans, SQ, 1-2 Lower; others, Down 5-6; Wheat, ½ to 1 Lower
· Looks like a down day in the world’s equity markets. Asia started us off with both the Nikkei (-.06%) and the Hang Seng (-.01) slightly lower; Shanghai dropped .57%. Europe has so far been unable to muster much in the way of support; the FTSE and DAX are each .40-.45% lower with France off nearly a full point. U.S. futures are also in the red: Dow, 32 lower; S&P, off 8 ½ and the NAS, down 14 ½. 2 years of more or less uninterrupted market gains have 3 out of 5 traders saying the market is either in a bubble or on the verge of one-Bloomberg. Outside markets: energy futures are mixed; gold is $5 more expensive; $ Index, .030 lower at 80.595
· T-Storm Weather: Dry and unseasonably-cool weather continues for most areas through Friday-Saturday, then breaks from west to east over Saturday-Monday as sharp warming begins. Very warm to hot weather dominates July 20-25, especially across the Plains where maximums oftentimes peak near 100°F. That said, cooler weather occurs with eastward extent; the eastern Corn Belt remains in the mid-80s through much of the period. A few showers affect the southeast third of Corn Belt around Sunday-Monday, and few t-storm clusters accompany warmth as energy flows along the edge of upper-level high pressure next week
· Sep Corn Down $.01 at $3.7725; December Down $.01 at $3.7725. Funds bought 4 K in mid-week trading
· August SB Down $.0175 at $11.8550; Sep Down $.06 at $11.1550 The funds bought 6 K SB; 4 K SBM and sold 1 K SBO
· Sep Wheat Down $.0050 at $5.3750; December Down $.0050 at $5.6150. Fund activity totaled purchases of 1 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT. Trade expects 10 to 14mbu old-crop corn, 14-18 new-crop
· T-storm Weather: Around July 24-25, it is most probable for energy to break the warm pattern for the Midwest and return temperatures to seasonable (neither hot nor cool) level. This setup also results in a few thunderstorm clusters
· ATI Research: Corn planted in Central Illinois on May 1 to reach black layer on or around Sept. 11 with normal temps
· Ethanol grind: 943 thou barrels per day for the week ending July 11—up 16 thou vs. last week and 7.6% vs. last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales: Trade expects -2 to 3mbu old-crop soybeans, 18-26 new ; soymeal, 20-90 K MT old, 25-150 new; soyoil, 0-20 old, 0-10 new
· Updated National Weather Service forecast for the month of August due out at 7:30 AM CDT
· Export Sales: Trade expects 15-20mbu for all wheat
· U.S. winter harvest progress behind normal in Ohio (61% vs. 75% for the 5-year avg.) and Michigan (3% vs. 34%)
ENERGY
· Futures are mixed with QCLQ14, +$1.10 at $102.28; QRBQ, -$0.00114; QNGQ, -$.029; and QHOQ, +$.0060
· Cash ethanol markets recorded an uptick on Wednesday: Chicago up ½; New York and Gulf gained 3; Tampa jumped 9; Dallas added 4; and LA was 11 higher at $2.37 ½ per gallon
· RINs up slightly: 2012’s gained ¾ to 48-49 ½; 2013’s climbed ½ to 48-49; and 2014’s were ¼ higher at 48-49
· The August RBOB/August ethanol spread slipped another 1 ½ cents yesterday, to $.7825/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· ; After falling $1.64 over the previous three trading days, Choice boxed beef values firmed 29-cents yesterday
· Light cash cattle sales were reported yesterday afternoon at $155, down $1 from last week
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 27-cents yesterday to a new record high of $134.71
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.65 to $134.01. August future dn $0.20 to $130.525 and are $3.485 below the index
· Broiler egg set last week was up 1.2% from last year and average set over the last four weeks is 0.7% above last year
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather