HIGHLIGHTS
· 6:00 AM Market Trend: Corn, Up 4; Soybeans, Mixed; Wheat, 3-4 Lower
· Stock activity in Asia was notably mixed overnight—the Nikkei lost nearly 1% but Shanghai rose .84% and the Hang Seng posted a 1.4% increase. Early trading in Europe is all to the plus side with gains ranging from .4% for the CAC 40 to 1.24% for the DAX as investors there note rising consumer confidence, improved corporate earnings and rising interest rates. U.S. futures look positive: S&P, +6.25; Dow, +47 and the Nasdaq, +18. Gold is $8.60 lower at $1,290.40; energy futures mostly higher, and the $ Index is off .070 at 79.825
· A drier scenario is evolving from much of the C/S Plains into the Delta. Thru Friday, a period of cool, cloudy, and showery weather is forecast for the Corn Belt. A milder pattern then develops in central and southern areas from the weekend forward with occasional showers in coolest northern areas and most likely followed by a round of organized rainfall across the Corn Belt and Delta next May 7-10. Overall conditions for planting appear most challenging for corn and spring wheat in the northern Plains where wet conditions exist, areas of rain and showers continue into early next week, and a sustained warm-up is not currently foreseen through 10 days. Conditions elsewhere in the Corn Belt are mixed – many areas are slightly-wet to wet now, stay cool this week, then turn warmer, but significant rainfall may reoccur after three to five days of dry and seasonable weather.
· May Corn Up $.0350 at $5.1125; July Up $.0350 at $5.1725. The funds start the week of buying 2 K
· May SB Up $.0025 at $15.0850; July Steady, $15.00. Fund activity: bought 5 K SB; 4 K SBM and sold 2 K SBO
· May Wheat Down $.0350 at $6.9675; July Down $.0350 at $7.05. The funds were even in Monday’s trade
CORN/SORGHUM
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Corn planting at 19%, up from 6% LW; versus 5% a year ago. Pace is 9 points behind the 5-year, 2 short of trade ideas
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Milo planting moved ahead 4 points to 27% complete. Matches 2013 and is now 1 ahead of the 5-year pace
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Trade noting IA, IN and OH are all 18 points behind their respective 5-year averages
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Corn inspections decline from 64.3 LW to 45.5 TW, short of trade’s 55-65 mbu guess but nearly 10 above implied rate
· ATI Research: exports/ethanol grind lower c/o 45 mbu to 1.26 bbu (USDA: 1.33)
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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Soybean planting at 3% nation-wide; versus 0 LW and LY; trails the 5-year average by a single point
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Soybean Export inspections recover from 5.7 LW to 9.3; exceeds both trade (4-8) and implied (3.4). Strong SE Asia #s
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Wheat ratings decline 1 to 33% G/E, unchanged from 2013; Spring wheat seedings rise 8 to 18, trails 5 yr by 12
· ATI Research: HRW crop model down 14 to 821 mbu; SRW, unchanged at 453; White wheat loses 1 million to 198
· 23.2 mbu wheat export figure narrowly tops trade’s 17-23 estimate, with 26.2 per week needed
· Rebound in soybean exports this week puts market on a pace to reach 1.61 bbu (imports now at 75 million?)
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly higher: QCLM14, +$0.43 at $101.27; QRBM, +$0.0057; QNGM, -$.028; and QHOM, +$.0126
· Cash ethanol markets were generally firmer Monday: Dallas improved 2 ½ cents; NY gained 3; Chicago, +3 ¾’s to $2.35; the Gulf was 4 higher with Tampa off a ½ and LA was 2 lower at $2.65 ½ per gallon
· RINs were again weaker: 2012’s lost 2 ¾’s to 38 ½ - 40; 2013’s were off 2, to 39-41; and 2014’s fell 1 7/8’s to 38-39 ¾
· The May RBOB/ethanol spread lost another 5 ¾ cents Monday, setting at $.7623 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   ;
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After falling 97-cents Friday, Choice boxed beef values firmed 34-cernts yesterday
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The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $146.34, down 59-cents from the week before
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After falling $5.31 over the previous five trading days, the USDA pork carcass cutout increased $2.63 on Monday
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The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed 63-cents yesterday to $112.33
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather