HIGHLIGHTS

·         6:00 AM Market Trend:  Corn, Down 3-4; Soybeans, Mixed; Wheat, 4-6 Lower

·         A .2% increase in EU inflation to .7% in April and a firmer Euro quelled ideas for stimulus activity from the ECB.  This left equity markets mixed:  FTSE, +.22%; the DAX, +.06% and the CAC 40, -.34%.  Asia ended trading with the Hang Seng off 1.42% but the Nikkei (+.11%) and Shanghai (+.3%) posted modest gains.  Ahead of Yellen’s remarks this afternoon, U.S. futures are slightly lower:  Dow, -7; S&P, -2 ¼ and the Nasdaq, -10.  Gold is off a ½% at $1,292.30; energy futures are lower; $ Index, -.071 at 79.94

·         The recent cool, wet pattern will be exiting the Corn Belt today through Friday with temps gradually warming over the weekend. Showers are probable north early next week which will include the spring wheat belt.  The mild, dry period will aid corn and soybean planting to the south.  Conditions in the HRW area will not improve as the region experiences very warm to hot and windy weather with dust storms becoming an issue.   Later in the week, tropical humidity will move into the central U.S., leading to 1” amounts Wed-Fri of next week for the Central Corn Belt.

·         May Corn Down $.0325 at $5.1250; July Down $.0350 at $5.18.  The funds 10 K on Tuesday

·         May SB Down $.0075 at $15.2325; July Down $.0475 at $15.1250.  Fund activity:  bought 7 K SB; 7 K SBM and 3 K SBO

·         May Wheat Down $.0550 at $7.0250; July Down $.0450 at $7.12.  The funds bought an estimated 4 Kon Tuesday

 

CORN/SORGHUM

• Trade debating U of IL commentary concluding late planting generally does not affect yields; more a function of summer weather.  And the slow start may trim acres, especially for ND, SD, MN and parts of IA.  Makes sense . . .
• Rail logistics said to be keeping ethanol production below capacity, despite still favorable margins
• Analog yrs: w/ more than 400 mbu in “known” unshipped sales (475 TY), could take exports as high as 1.825 billion
• Corn deliveries:   0 (0-200 expected)  

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Private sources indicate 15 mbu of Brazil soybeans were in the line-up for shipment to the U.S., 10 already loaded
• 1^st day KS WQC estimates at 34.7, down from 43.8 LY and lowest initial estimates since 2001
• Soy complex deliveries:  SB, 0 (0 expected); SBM, 0 (0); SBO, 2,596 (400-800)
• Wheat deliveries:  Chi, 144 (150-300); KC, 0 (0)
• Unshipped SB sales/destinations, logistical issues in getting near-by needs from S AM, suggest USDA’s export forecast of 1.580 bbu is 20 mbu too low

ENERGY

·         Futures are weaker: QCLM14, $0.84 at $100.44; QRBM, -$0.0161; QNGM, -$.024; andQHOM, -$.0140

·         EIA Estimates in mb (API):  crude oil, +2.2 (+3.0); gasoline, -0.4 (-0.05); distillates, +0.6 (+0.7)

·         Cash ethanol markets were mixed yesterday: LA lost 2 ½ cents; Dallas was down 1 ½; the Gulf slipped ¾ of a cent and Chicago, off ¼.  Tampa held steady at NY posted a ½ cent gain to $2.47 ½ per gallon

·         RINs were also mixed as 2012’s rose 3/4’s to 39 ½ to 40 ½; 2013’s were steady at 39 ½ to 40 ½; 2014’s edged a ½ cent lower to the 38 to 38 ½ range 

·         The May RBOB/ethanol spread was little changed, up $.0021 at $.7644 per gallon on Tuesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   &nbs​p;                        ​;               

• Choice boxed beef values gained $1.19 yesterday and have increased $1.53 over the last two days
• Cash cattle are quiet with feedyards asking $148, but no packer bids reported.  Cattle traded last week at mostly $146
• After gaining $2.63 on Monday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $3.53 on Tuesday
• The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell $1.06 yesterday to $111.06

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather