HIGHLIGHTS
· 6:00 AM Market Trend: Corn, 2 Lower; Soybeans, steady to 3 Lower; Wheat, 3-4 Lower
· Asian was mixed overnight with the Nikkei losing 1.4% after the BOJ decided not to further expand its easy-money policy, despite an increase in the government sales tax from 5 to 8%. Shanghai reversed course from yesterday with a 1.9% gain and the Hang Seng closed up 1%. Europe is decidedly weaker with the FTSE, DAX and CAC-40 all down close to 1% or more. U.S. futures are mostly weaker: the Dow is off 16; the S&P, 1 ¾ lower and the Nasdaq, a ¼ point weaker. Gold is $13.50 higher at $1,311.80; energy futures are all positive and the $ Index is a ¼ point lower at 80.26
· T-storm Weather: Substantial warming begins tomorrow for the U.S. Midwest, but a large-scale planting window is not expected due to wet and / or cool topsoil across the Corn Belt, and that a high chance for rain exists Sunday-Monday (April 13-14). Rain chances are lower to the west in the driest areas of the Plains, and more or much more rain will likely be needed next week. A chance for rain exists around next Thursday (April 19), but the better overall chance is in the Corn Belt and Delta, further limiting the potential for a fast start to corn planting this year. Argentina turns much drier and cooler starting today. Given that many areas received over 4.00” within the last few days, it seems probable it will take another 5-7 days for harvesting to resume
· May Corn Down $.02 at $4.9725; July Down $.02 at $5.0325. The funds sold 4 K on Monday
· May SB Unch at $14.6425; July Down $.0275 at $14.4550. The funds sold 4 K SB yesterday, along with 3 K SBM and 1 K SBO
· May Wheat Down $.0425 at $6.72; July Down $.0350 at $6.80. The funds were buyers of an estimated 4 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Updated balance sheet for 13/14 corn pegs carryout down 117mbu vs. last week to 1.286Bbu, with 14/15 down a like amount to 1.655Bbu
· Avg. trade guesses for Brazil & Argentina corn production in April 9 WASDE are 69.8 MMT and 24.1 MMT, respectively
· Export Inspections; Corn, 51.6mbu (32.9 needed) with zero to China; Milo, 1.3 (1.7), China in for 125,000 bushels
· T-storm Weather: Second-crop corn in Brazil remains adequately moist, which is supporting crop prospects
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Updated balance sheet for 13/14 soybeans pegs carryout at 126mbu with 14/15 at 326 million
· Avg. guesses for Brazil & Argentina soybean production in April 9 WASDE are 87.4 MMT and 54.1 MMT, respectively
· Export Inspections: Soybeans, 18.7mbu (only 1.7 needed) with China taking 7.2 (vs. 6.5 last week)
· ATI Research: 13/14 all wheat carryout unchanged at 590mbu; 14/15 pegged at 659mbu
· More deterioration in HRW wheat ratings: Kansas: 29% Good/Excellent vs. 32% last week; Oklahoma, 15% vs. 17%
ENERGY
· Futures are higher with QCLK14, +$0.62 at $101.06; QRBK, +$0.0107; QNGK, +$.019 and QHOK, +$.0170
· Mostly weaker trend was seen in cash ethanol markets to begin the week: Chicago up ½; Gulf lost 11 ½; Dallas declined 2 ½; Tampa unchanged; NY lost a dime; and LA was 7 lower at $3.27 per gallon
· Firmer trend in RINs: 2012’s up 3 at 49 ½-51 ½; 2013’s gained 1 to 50-51; and 2014’s climbed ½ to 47 ½-48 ½
· May RBOB/May ethanol spread closed at $.5680 per gallon yesterday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   ;
· Choice boxed beef values fell 81-cents yesterday and declined $5.71 over the last three trading days
· USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $149.71, down $2.50 from the previous week’s record high
· After gaining 92-cents on Friday, the USDA pork carcass cutout value fell $1.11 yesterday
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed 25-cents yesterday to $124.20
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather