HIGHLIGHTS
· 5:55 AM Market Trend: Corn, Down 1-2; Soybeans, 16-17 Higher; Wheat, 1 to 2 Higher
· Asia was mostly higher in overnight trading with Shanghai (+.17%), the Hang Seng (+.11%) and the Nikkei (+3.01%) all posting gains. Although it can be a double-edged sword, low inflation rates helped lift Europe higher in early trading—FTSE, +.34%; the DAX, +.81% and the CAC-40, +.87%. EU Consumer prices the past 12 months rose at the slowest pace in 4 ½ years; while helping real incomes at a time of low wage growth, the risks of deflation also loom large. U.S. futures appear prepared to carry on the trend: Dow, +69; S&P, + 8 ¼ and the Nasdaq, +18 ½. Gold is up .22% at $1,303; the $ Index is down .093 at 79.935 and energy futures are all trading in positive territory
· T-storm Weather: A small system brings 0.25” - 0.50” of rain to some HRW wheat in driest areas of the Plains tonight and Thursday – most likely from southern Kansas into west-central Oklahoma. Another system follows this weekend, but only scattered amounts of 0.10” – 0.20” are expected in driest areas of Oklahoma and Texas; better chances are further east. A sharply warmer pattern also begins this weekend and likely continues into late-month, allowing wheat growth and corn planting to quickly accelerate. The main caveat is that the warmer pattern should help a large system develop later next week or weekend, which results in a low chance for heavy rain within the central U.S., though the location cannot be determined. Rain may still be needed in driest HRW wheat areas at that time if amounts and coverage are not higher than we currently expect
· May Corn Down $.0150 at $5.0225; July Down $.0175 at $5.08. Tuesday’s fund buying totaled 2 K
· May SB Up $.1675 at $15.18; July Up $.1750 at $15.05. Fund activity: bought 10 K SB, 7 K SBM and 6 K SBO yesterday
· May Wheat Up $.0175 at $7.0250; July Up $.0125 at $7.11 Freeze concerns contributed to 8 K in fund buying
CORN/SORGHUM
· U.S. corn planting progress for week ending April 20 was 4% in 2013 and the five-year average (2009-2013) is 14%
· ATI Research: Look for U.S. corn exports to average 45-50mbu near-term; 35-40 Center Gulf, 8-10 PNW & 4-5 Interior
· Although off their record highs, ethanol crush margins remain strong; EIA report out this morning at9:30 CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· May 2014 soybean futures close at $15.01 ¼ Tues; first time nearby contract settled above $15.00 since July 22, 2013
· NOPA soybean crush for March pegged at 153.8mbu vs. 141.6 in February; strong domestic soybean meal use implied
· ATI Research: Bias is U.S. soybean exports will average near 8.0mbu per week over the next month vs. 8.3 last year
· T-storm Weather: Total of 51% of U.S. HRW wheat received less than one-half of its average rain over the last 30 days
· ATI Research: Bias is U.S. all wheat exports will average 18-22mbu per week near-term
ENERGY
· Futures are higher: QCLK14, +$1.03 at $104.78; QRBK, +$0.0012; QNGK, +$.008; and QHOK, +$.0183
· Tuesday saw significant weakness in cash ethanol markets: Chicago and Gulf down 14; Dallas plummeted 27; Tampa lost 17; NY declined 11; and LA prices were 18 lower at $3.07 per gallon
· EIA estimates (API): Crude, +1.5 mb (+7.6); gasoline, -1.4 (-0.5); distillates, -0.1 (-1.1)
· Steady to weaker trend in RINs: 2012’s down 1 to 42-44; 2013’s off ½ to 44-45; and 2014’s unchanged at 41 ½-42 ½
· The May RBOB/May ethanol spread gained another 8 cents, to $.7710 per gallon yesterday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values firmed 34-cents yesterday and have gained 74-cents over the last two days
· Cash cattle are quiet with feedyards asking $149, but no packer bids. Trade last week was mostly $147 in the South
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value fell $2.26 yesterday and has declined $9.41 over the last seven trading days
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell $1.36 yesterday to $117.56
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather