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MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 cents higher on old crop and 20 cents hgiher on new crop yesterday in a very active day of trade. A forecast calling for much warmer temperatures and drier conditions in the Midwest sparked a rally in the grain markets. Informa also came out with their acreage estimates and lowered corn acres by 1.5 million from their previous estimate. They put the corn acreage number at 95.2 million. USDA will release their estimate on June 28th. Weather over the next 10 days is expected to be very warm with limited amounts of rainfall expected over the extreme northern regions of the Midwest. The Delta is expected to be mostly above normal in temperatures and below normal in rainfall for the next week. The soybean market closed 12 cents higher on old crop and 21 cents higher on new crop on Wednesday as funds bought nearly 7000 contracts of soybeans on the day. Informa released their acreage estimates on soybeans yesterday coming out at 77.8 million vs their previous estimate of 78.3. This surprised the trade as they were looking for a number higher than their previous estimate. New crop prices surged on that news and closed 21 cents higher. Argentina's Ag Ministry also lowered their soybean production down to 50.2 MMT from their previous estimate of 50.6. Wheat prices also rallied yesterday on talk that China may need more wheat than previously thought. Wheat closed up nearly 20 cents higher on Wednesday. Currently corn is trading 5 cents lower, beans are down 11 cents and wheat is 8 cents lower.
6-18-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Nearby corn futures closed 13 cents higher yesterday on talk of possible new corn sales. Brazilian shipping delays may be encouraging new export business. Yesterday's export shipments of 14.1 million bushels were well above expectations of between 6 to 8. Stong commercial demand for corn due to increased ethanol demand has also strengthened the nearby corn market. New crop corn prices closed 5 cents higher yesterday on ideas that late planted corn will likely result in much lower corn yields. Corn planted the week of June 8th will likely yield only 67% of normal and corn planted after the middle of June could be reduced to 50% of normal. On the planting progress report released yesterday afternoon, corn emergence came in at 92% which is behind the 5 year average of 97%. Corn conditions improved by 1% to 64% good to excellent. The soybean market closed 4 cents lower on Monday on old crop and 13 cents lower on new crop. Ideas that less than expected rains over the weekend resulted in more soybean planting kept new crop prices on the defensive. Soybean crush numbers came in above expectations at 122.6 million bushels but soybean meal exports were down 80 tons from last month. The planting progress report on Monday showed that 85% of the nation's soybean crop has now been planted vs the 5 year average of 91%. The soybean crop is rated at 64% good to excellent vs 56% last year. USDA will release their quarterly grain stocks report and acreage estimates on June 28th. Currently corn is trading up 1/2 cent, beans are 5 cents higher and wheat is up 4 cents.
6-17-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Nearby corn futures closed 11 1/2 cents higher on Friday but new crop was down 2 cents in a day of mixed trading. Old crop prices were up on strong commercial demand. New crop prices continue to struggle in the uncertainty of how many acres are actually getting planted to corn. USDA made no changes to the acreage numbers on the supply-demand report which was released on June 12th. At some point USDA is going to have to acknowledge the number of corn acres that did not get planted this spring. Surely the June 28th report will show some reduction in those acres. The trade continues to think that between 2 to 4 million acres of corn did not get planted this spring. Some of it went into preventive planting and some will be going into soybeans. The soybean market closed 6 cents higher on Friday on old crop and 2 cents lower on new crop. Old crop beans were stronger on good meal and oil demand. Crush margins still remain profitable and new crush numbers will be released today. The trade is looking for the number to come in between 116 to 118 million bushels. New crop prices are in a holding pattern as no one knows how many acres will be planted this year to beans. USDA will release a new planting progress report today and traders are estimating that between 85 to 89% of the nation's bean crop is now planted. Parts of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin are still struggling to get soybeans planted this year. The June 28th acreage report will still likely not paint a clear picture of the actual planted acres for this spring. Currently corn is trading down a penny, beans are down 12 cents and wheat is 4 cents lower. Look for lower markets this morning on less than expected rainfall totals over the weekend.
6-14-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND BEANS ARE TRADING HIGHER AND WHEAT IS TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents lower on Thursday in another day of market liquidation. Decreasing demand for US corn has been wieghing on the futures prices. Thursday's export sales report totalled only 3.2 million bushels for old crop and 2.7 million bushels for new crop. This was the lowest sales in the past 22 weeks. Consequently both July and December corn futures on Thursday closed at the lowest level since the middle of May. Hopefully the markets will recieve some friendly news when the USDA releases the June 28th acreage report. The trade is currently thinking that we could see a reduction of 2 to 4 million acres in corn plantings on that report. More rain is in the forecast over the weekend for the Midwest. Rainfall totals of 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches could be possible. The soybean market closed down 30 cents on Thursday as traders try to deal with the uncertainty of how many actual soybean acres will get planted this year. The trade is thinking that there is between 3 to 5 million acres of corn yet unplanted and no one knows whether those acres will get switched to beans or go to prevent plant. If the number of soybean acres goes much above the 77.1 million acres that USDA has currently pencilled in then that could be bearish for soybean prices down the road. Goldman Sach's has lowered their price forecast for beans for the coming year down to $11.00 per bushel. The soybean harvest in Argentina is now 99% complete with production pegged at 48.5 MMT. Currently corn is trading up 5 cents, beans are up 4 cents and wheat is down 6 cents.
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 cents lower on Wednesday after USDA released their latest supply-demand report. USDA made no adjustment to the planted acreage and left corn acres at 97.3 million. Corn carryout for 2012-13 was increased by 10 million bushels from May and came out at 769. Corn carryout for new crop came in at 1.949 billion bushels which was a drop of 55 million bushels from the report issued in May. USDA did lower the corn yield by 1.5 bpa down to 156.5. USDA raised corn imports by 25 million bushels, increased feed seed and industrial usage by 65 million and lowered exports by 50 million down to 700. On June 28th, USDA will issue a new acreage report which should make adjustments for the change in planting conditions. World ending stocks on corn dropped by 2.8 MMT down to 151.8. The soybean market closed unchanged on old crop and down 13 cents on new crop following the report. USDA left the acreage and yield estimates unchanged from their May report. Soybean acres remained at 77.1 million and the yield they used was 44.5 bpa. They are looking for a crop of 3.530 billion bushels. Ending stocks for 2012-13 was left unchanged at 125 million bushels and new crop ending stocks was left at 265. Soybean imports were increased by 5 million bushels and soybean crush increased by 25 but exports were lowered by 20 million bushels. The net effect of this left everything virtually unchanged. World ending stocks on soybeans came in at 1.2 MMT lower than the previous month. Currently corn is down a penny, beans are 7 cents lower and wheat is down 2 cents.
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE TRADING STEADY TO LOWER AND BEANS ARE HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 16 cents lower on Monday on ideas that more planting progress was made over the weekend as weather conditions were drier than expected. The planting progress report released yesterday afternoon showed that 95% of the nation's corn crop was planted as of Sunday night vs the 5 year average of 98%. The corn crop rating remained unchanged from last week at 63% good to excellent. Corn export inspections came in at only 6.4 million bushels which was the lowest in the past year. This is well under the 16.9 million bushels needed per week to stay on track with USDA's projection for the year. The latest weather forecasts are calling for a chance of heavy thunderstorms across the corn belt on Tuesday and Wednesday and then again on Saturday and Sunday. The soybean market closed 16 cents lower yesterday as traders decided to take profits. Weak exports totalling only 3.1 million bushels also weighed on futures prices on Monday. USDA put the soybean planting progress at 71% complete vs 57% last week but below the 5 year average of 84%. This leaves approximately 22 million acres of soybeans left to be planted across the nation. Missouri came in at 48% planted, Iowa was 60% and Illinois came in at 62%. USDA will release a crop production report on Wednesday. Traders are looking for a bean carryout for 2012-13 of 125 million bushels and a new crop carryout of 273. The Midwest is expected to see several rain events over the next 10 days which could further delay planting attempts. Currently corn is trading up a penny, beans are up 8 cents and wheat is trading 5 cents higher.
6-10-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Nearby corn futures closed 3 cents higher and new crop closed a dime higher on Friday as forecasts continued to add more rain for areas that were already to wet, extending planting delays. USDA will release the planting progress report this afternoon. Traders are expecting that report to show that around 95% of the nation's corn crop is now planted vs 91% last week. The window of opportunity to get corn planted is drawing to a close and farmers will have to chose between prevent plant options or planting soybeans. Either way the 14.1 billion bushel crop that was earlier projected will be reduced either by lower acres or reduced yields or by both. The June 28th acreage report will give us a little better perspective on this. The soybean market closed a penny higher on old crop and 24 cents higher on new crop on Friday. New crop prices surged higher on ideas that continued wet weather will delay soybean plantings to the point where farmers may have to chose the prevent planting option for soybeans which will mean less soybean acres. Soybean plantings on this afternoon's report is expected to come in around 70% complete vs the 5 year average of 86%. Rain is in the frorecast off and on all this week with 1/2 to 1 inch totals possible. USDA will release a crop report on Wednesday with 2012-13 soybean carryout expected to come in at 125 million bushels and new crop carryout at 273. Currently corn is trading 7 cents lower, beans are down 16 cents and wheat is trading 5 cents lower.
MORNING TRADE : THE CASH CORN AND BEAN MARKETS ARE LOWER AND WHEAT IS TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 9 1/2 cents yesterday as planters continued to roll along in many areas across the corn belt. Some light rain showers slowed planting in some areas but a return to sunny skies and windy conditions allowed some planters to return to the fields. The planting progress report on Monday showed that 71% of the nation's corn crop has now been planted. Farmers planted a record 43% of the corn crop in one week. The 5 year average for the week is 79% planted so we are now only 8% behind the normal pace. Illinois came in at 74% planted, Iowa at 71, Missouri at 70, Indiana at 64 and Ohio at 74%. Huge strides were made last week and 19% of the corn crop has now emerged. Some light showers are moving across the central corn belt this morning. Once this system moves out, it will be followed by a couple of cool and drier days. The soybean market closed 14 cents higher on Tuesday as old crop supplies remain tight and processors continue to want to gain ownership. New crop beans closed 4 cents lower on ideas that planting progress was making great strides. On Monday, USDA put the nation's soybean planting at 24% complete vs the 5 year average of 42%. Last week only 6 % of the soybean crop was planted. Some in the trade think that we will see more soybean imports this year due to the tight supplies. Oil world has increased US soybean imports to 32 million bushels for the year. This is 12 million bushels above USDA's current projection of 20. Brazil's soybean production has been lowered by Safras down to 82.3 MMT. This is 1.2 MMT below USDA's current estimate. Currently corn is trading 1 cent lower, beans are down 5 cents and wheat is trading 4 cents higher. Look for a mixed trade in the commodity markets today.
5-21-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN IS TRADING LOWER, CASH BEANS ARE HIGHER AND WHEAT IS UNCHANGED THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up 11 cents on Friday as low stocks of corn continue to support nearby corn prices. Informa released their latest acreage numbers and put corn acres for this spring at 96.8 million. USDA's last estimate came in at 97.3. Corn planters continued to run hard over the weekend and this afternoon the latest planting progress report will be released at 3 PM. Many in the trade are estimating the report to show that 60 to 65% of the nation's corn crop will be in the ground. Last week only 28% of the crop had been planted. The 5 year average is at 80% planted by this time. Rains are in the forecast over the next couple of days for much of the Plains, Corn Belt and Delta regions. The soybean market closed 21 cents higher on Friday on tight old crop supplies. The bird flu in China appears to be losing momentum. The number of new infections in the past month has dropped off dramatically. In fact a couple of provinces have reported no new infections in the past month and have dicontinued their emergency measures. Poultry prices have actually bottomed out and are now going up in value. The planting progress report will be released this afternoon and traders are expecting that 20 to 25% of the Nation's bean crop will be planted vs the 5 year average of 42%. Last week only 6% of the soybean crop was reported planted. Informa released their acreage report on Friday putting soybean acres at 78.3 vs USDA's last estimate of 77.1. Currently corn is trading down 4 cents, beans are up 5 cents and wheat is down a penny.
5-17-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE TRADING LOWER AND BEANS ARE HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 cents lower on Thursday as planting progress is making big strides. Some in the trade think that as of Sunday night 65% of the nation's corn crop will be planted. The 5 year average is 80%. Some rain is in the forecast over the next several days. Areas of the corn belt could see 1/2 to 1 inch amounts today and tomorrow and then on Monday and Tuesday of next week some areas of the Midwest could see 3/4 to 1 1/2 inches of rain. On Thursday, USDA's corn export sales report showed decent old crop sales of 8.7 million bushels but was a little weak on new crop sales of 1.5 million bushels. Mexico and Japan were the leading buyers. Corn export sales for the year are 54% behind last years totals. The soybean market closed 15 cents higher yesterday on ideas that not as many acres will be switched over to beans as good weather is allowing rapid progress of corn planting. Informa is expected to release their acreage estimates today. In March they put soybean acres at 78.5 million. USDA came in at 77.1. USDA's next acreage estimate will be released on June 28th. Soybean sales exports were a little disappointing on old crop at only 600,000 bushels and new crop at 12.7 which was below trade expectations of 16 to 20. Old crop sales went mostly to Mexico and Taiwan and new crop sales were mostly to China. Despite poor soybean sales this past week, soybean sales are up 15% from last year with the majority of the sales going to China. Currently corn is trading a penny lower, beans are up 5 cents and wheat is down 5 cents. Look for a mixed trade in commodities today.
5-16-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN IS TRADING LOWER, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE TRADING A LITTLE HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents lower on Wednesday as funds sold an estimated 4000 contracts on the day. Corn planting is progressing along at a rapid pace across the corn belt as farmers try to get as much corn planted before the next rain event. Spotty showers will occur in the southern regions of the Midwest today with up to 1/2 inch of rain expected for today and Friday. Then another chance of rain occurs in the Midwest early next week with 80% coverage of up to 1 1/2 inches. Given the record slow pace of planting corn this year along with rain in the forecast, the number of acres which will get planted this year still remain a question mark. On USDA's last report, they had estimated that 97.3 million acres would get planted to corn this year. Many in the trade now believe that we could see a number 1 to 2 million below that. The soybean market closed 2 cents lower yesterday as funds continued to liquidate soybean positions. April soybean crush numbers came in below expectations at 120.1 million bushels. The trade was looking for a number near 125. Some soybean processors are shutting down plants as soybeans are hard to come by as farmers are in the fields and supplies remain very tight. The slowdown at ports and reduction in exports out of South America has helped to support nearby bean prices along with good commercial domestic demand. Currently corn is down 4 cents, beans are up a penny and wheat is unchanged. Look for choppy markets today.
5-15-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents lower on Tuesday on profit taking from Monday's big run up in prices. Monday afternoon's planting progress report showed that 28% of the nation's corn crop was planted vs 65% on average and 85% last year. Monday's report put the US corn planting pace at the slowest ever. Wisconsin came in at 14%, Iowa at 15%, Illinois at 17%, Minnesota at 18% and Missouri at 28%. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the southern corn belt late Wednesday and into Thursday. The northern corn belt should be able to continue planting until late in the weekend when more showers are expected. On Friday, USDA put the 2012-13 corn ending stocks at 759 million bushels and the next year's corn carryout at a little over 2 billion bushels. The acreage and yield numbers for corn, however, could still be lowered if the weather continues to delay planting progress. The soybean market closed 4 1/2 cents lower yesterday as funds sold 3000 contracts of soybeans on the day. On Friday, USDA put the 2012-13 soybean carryout at 125 million bushels and 265 for 2013-14. The cash soybean market has remained very strong due to the very tight supplies. Nearby soybean basis levels have improved as soybean crushers have had a difficult time sourcing supplies. The soybean planting report on Monday showed that only 6% of the nation's soybean crop was planted as of last Sunday vs 24% on average. The two major bean producing states of Illinois and Iowa came in at 1% and under. April soybean crush numbers will be released at 11 AM this morning. The trade is expecting a number near 125 million bushels. Currently corn is trading 5 cents lower, beans are down 4 cents and wheat is down 6 cents. Look for a softer grain market today.
5-10-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE LOWER AND BEANS ARE HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 16 cents higher on Thursday as more rain fell across already wet areas of the Midwest. Many areas received .25 inch of rain to 1 inch with some areas receiving 2 inches or more. More rain is expected in the Eastern Corn Belt for the middle of next week. USDA will release their latest supply-demand and crop production report at 11AM today. The average trade guess for US corn ending stocks is 754 million bushels for old crop and 1.973 billion bushels for new crop. The trade will be watching to see if USDA makes any changes to the expected planted acreage of 97.3 million acres of corn for this spring. That will have a big impact on the new crop carryout numbers along with expected yield. World ending stocks on old crop are projected at 125.8 MMT and new crop is pegged at 156.3. The soybean market closed 18 cents higher yesterday in position squaring ahead of the reports. USDA did also announce a 4 million bushel sale to China for the 2013-14 marketing year. The report this morning is expected to show US soybean ending stocks at 124 million bushels for 2012-13 and 239 million bushels for new crop. World ending stocks are expected to come in at 62.3 MMT for old crop and 70.5 MMT for new crop. Both of the world numbers would be record highs. Currently corn is trading 4 cents lower, beans are up a penny and wheat is down 8 cents. Look for the grain to trade choppy ahead of the report today.
5-9-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN IS UNCHANGED, WHEAT IS LOWER AND BEANS ARE TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents lower on Wednesday as planters continue to make headway across parts of the Midwest. Rain showers are now moving into Illinois with the heaviest rain currently in Central Illinois. This will likely delay planting for several more days as rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible. Cooler and drier weather is expected over the weekend with temperatures expected to warm into the upper 70's and low 80's next week. Weekly corn exports this morning came out at a combined 11.3 million bushels which was below traders expectations of between 16 to 32. This was below the 17.1 million bushels needed weekly to keep on track with USDA's projections for the year. Tomorrow morning at 11AM, USDA will issue their latest crop production and supply-demand reports. There will be a lot of numbers for traders to digest in just a couple of hours of trading on Friday. The soybean market closed 8 1/2 cents higher yesterday as tight old crop supplies continue to hold up the nearby market. On Friday USDA will issue a new supply-demand report. Last month USDA put the ending soybean stocks for the 2012-13 crop year at 125 million bushels. Some in the trade thought that those numbers were a liitle high so we will see if there is any adjustment on this month's report. Domestic soybean usage has been good due to good crush margins and strong meal demand. Soybean export inspections came out at a combined 21.5 million bushels which was near the high end of the range of expectations. Currently corn is trading 3 cents higher, beans are up 14 cents and wheat is down 1/2 cent.
5-8-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE BOTH TRADING LOWER AND BEANS ARE HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 1/2 cents higher on Tuesday following the crop progress report which was released on Monday showing that 12% of the nation's corn crop was planted. Weather forecasts turned a little wetter for the balance of the week which helped to give the markets a little boost. It is currently raining in the western corn belt and it is expected to move into the Midwest for Thursday and Friday. Current forecasts are calling for .2 to 1.25 inches of rain to fall over 65% of the Midwest. USDA will release their crop production and Supply-Demand reports on Friday at 11 AM. The average guess for 2013-14 corn carryout came in at 2.038 billion bushels. The average estimate on World ending stocks for 2013-14 is pegged at 150.9 vs 125.9 for the current year. Brazil's safrinha corn harvest is expected to finish over the next week to 10 days. Yields have been good. The soybean market closed 13 cents higher on Tuesday as old crop supplies remain tight. Soybean meal supplies may remain in short supply also as South American exports have been very sluggish this year. The US soybean planting pace continues to fall behind with only 2% of the nation's crop planted as of last Sunday. The normal pace is 12%. Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota have reported no beans planted as of yet. These states are still struggling to get corn planted. The latest weather forecast has turned wetter for much of the corn belt for the middle to end of next week. Another 1/2 to 1 inch of rain could fall during that time frame. Currently corn is trading 2 cents lower, beans are up 11 cents and wheat is down 4 cents. Look for a choppy trade in the grain markets today.
5-7-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 25 cents lower on Monday as weather forecasts turned a little drier over the next two weeks. The latest 6 to 10 day forecast calls for below normal precipitation which will allow for planting to progress. Planting progress on Monday's report showed that 12% of the nation's corn crop was in the ground compared with the 5 year average of 47%. Last year 69% of the corn crop was planted by this time. Good planting progress should be made this week especially if current weather forecasts hold up. Some in the trade think that next Monday's report could show a jump to 40% or more planted. Corn export inspections came out a little disappointing at only 6.5 million bushels. The trade was looking for the number to come in between 10 to 13. The average trade guess on Friday's USDA report for 2012-13 corn carryout is 762 million bushels. The soybean market closed 18 cents lower yesterday as funds sold nearly 5000 contracts of soybeans on the day. A couple of soybean processors said yesterday that they would be closing a few of their soybean meal plants due to poor margins. There have also bean rumors lately that the US would begin to import beans from South America as beans there are at a $2 discount to US beans. The soybean planting report showed that 2% of the US soybean crop has been planted to date. This compares with the 5 year average of 12%. Last year 22% of the crop was planted. The average estimate on Friday's USDA report puts 12-13 soybean carryout at 123 million bushels and 13-14 carryout at 233. Currently corn is trading 3 cents higher, beans are up 7 cents and wheat is 2 cents higher.
5-6-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down a penny on Friday as funds sold 2000 contracts of corn on the day. Traders were looking at a slightly better forecast for this week. The Midwest should be relatively dry until Thursday and Friday when chances of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain could occur with 75% coverage. USDA will release their latest planting progress report this afternoon. Most in the trade expect to see the US corn planting pace at 15 to 19%. It will be interesting to see if it comes in that strong. With improved weather forecasts for this week, some in the trade feel that it is possible to see planting progress at 40 to 45% on next Monday's report. Friday USDA will issue their Crop Production and Supply Demand reports. The corn carryout for 2013-14 is expected to come in at 2.038 billion bushels. The soybean market closed 15 cents higher on Friday as old crop soybean supplies remain very tight. Some in the trade think that the South American production will not reach the market until the US soybeans are ready to be harvested this fall. If that becomes the case, then US old crop soybean supplies will remain very tight. US soybean exports are still 17% higher than they were a year ago despite a lagging Chinese economy and problems with the bird flu. The trade still feels that we could see larger soybean acres especially in areas that have had recents snows and where soil temperatures remain to cold to plant corn yet. On Friday's USDA report, the trade is expecting 2013-14 soybean carryout to come in at 239 million bushels. Currently corn is trading down 16 cents, beans are down 5 cents and wheat is down 15 cents. Markets are lower this morning on drier weather forecasts for this week.
5-3-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING AND BEANS ARE HIGHER.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 15 cents higher on Thursday as the latest weather forecasts added more rain for the Midwest into later next week. Snow was falling in the western Midwest yesterday with totals of 18 inches in parts of Minnesota and across western Iowa. More snow is also falling west of the Mississippi River this morning. This past week ethanol production has been on the increase and is now at the highest level since last July. Ethanol production will need to stay at this level to reach USDA's projection of corn usage for ethanol this year of 4.55 billion bushels. USDA will issue a new planting progress report on Monday. The trade is expecting corn planting progress to come in around 12% planted nationwide. The average pace for this time of year is close to 50%. If planting progress falls below 13% on Sunday, it will be the slowest planting pace ever for corn by this date. USDA is currently estimating corn acres at 97.3 million. Some in the trade now think that 94 million may be closer to reality. The soybean market closed lower yesterday on ideas that more soybean acres could get planted this year if the current wet weather scenario plays out. The Chinese economy slowdown along with demand concerns with the bird flu outbreak has traders nervous about future US export sales. South America's crop will likely be nearly 30 MMT larger than last year and these supplies will eventually hit the market. The talk of higher soybean acreage this spring along with larger supplies and decreasing demand from China does not paint a rosey picture for soybean prices down the road. The wild card still remains the weather and production of the US 2013 soybean crop. Currently corn is two cents lower, beans are a dime higher and wheat is trading 5 cents lower.
5-2-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 1 1/2 cents lower yesterday despite planting delays and even forecasts for snow in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and in the Texas Panhandle. Two to six inches of snow is likely to fall in many states with western Iowa expected to get nearly a foot of new snow. Farther east of there and into Illinois, 2 to 3 inches of rain is predicted through Saturday. Some in the trade seem to think that we may have already lost 1 to 2 billion bushels of corn production due to yield reductions and lost acres. The 5 year average for corn planting as of this Sunday is 48%. Last year 68% of the nation's corn crop was planted at this time. We may be looking at a planting pace this Sunday below the lowest ever recorded at 13%. That record was set in 1993. The soybean market closed 30 cents lower on a report yesterday which showed a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity. Funds sold an estimated 7000 contracts of soybeans on the day. China accounts for more than half of the world's soybean imports so negative economic news weighed heavily on soybean prices yesterday. South American soybeans will now become more readily available over the next couple of months and with the Chinese demand slowing down, US tight soybean supplies don't seem quite as critical. There has been some talk in the trade lately that the US could begin importing some Brazilian soybeans. There has been no confirmation of any business done with them yet. On a positive note, domestic meal demand remains strong and crush margins have been very good. US soybean stocks going into late summer could be tight but imports of soybeans and meal could reduce that pressure. Currently corn is trading 2 cents higher, beans are up 2 cents and wheat is unchanged.
4-30-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed a penny lower on old crop and 3 cents lower on new crop yesterday. On Monday USDA reported that the corn crop was only 5% planted nationwide. This compares with 31% on average and last year the corn planting was 49% complete. Illinois and Indiana had only 1% of the crop planted and and Ohio and Iowa came in at 2%. The latest weather forecasts continue to show rain across the Midwest from Thursday through Saturday. The amounts have been lowered from 1 1/2 inches down to around an inch. The problem is that the ground was already saturated and any more rain will only delay corn planting further. Originally the trade was thinking that 1 to 2 million acres of corn could be lost due to the cool and wet spring. Most of the acres expecting to be cut were in the extreme north. If this new rain materializes, some feel that as much as 4 to 5 million acres could be diverted away from corn. The soybean market closed 4 cents lower yesterday as the funds sold nearly 6000 contracts of soybeans on the day. The weather forecasts showing more rain this week has led some to believe that we could see more soybean acres planted this year. Many believe, however, that it will not be an acre for acre trade. Some corn ground could go into the preventive planting program leading some in the trade to think that a wet spring would only lead to 78 or 79 million acres planted to soybeans. New crop soybeans ended the day 6 cents lower yesterday. Strong domestic old crop demand has helped to decrease the bearish influences of the bird flu in China and the negative economic news of late. Currently corn is trading 9 cents lower, beans are down 32 cents and wheat is 11 cents lower. Look for the grain markets to trade lower as the latest weather forecasts will be monitored closely.
4-29-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE TRADING HIGHER AND BEANS ARE A LITTLE LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Nearby corn futures were a penny lower and new crop closed seven cents lower on Friday on ideas that some corn would get planted before the next weather system advances across the Midwest. The planting progress report will be released after 3 PM this afternoon. Last week's report showed that only 4% of the corn had been planted. Traders are expecting that in today's report, the USDA will show corn planting to come in between 9 to 14% complete. Some progress was expected to have been made in the Delta and the Southern Corn Belt last week. In the overnight trade, the corn market was much higher on new weather forecasts that point toward a cooler and wetter pattern developing later this week. Heavy rains are expected in the southern Midwest for tommorrow with 1/2 to 2 1/2 inches of rain possible. This will then move east for the balance of the week. The soybean market closed 7 cents higher in the old crop and 4 cents higher in new crop on Friday as traders thought that corn planting would gain momentum over the coming week. Domestic soybean crush which has continued strong and a dwindling US old crop supply has helped to hold up nearby prices. The bird flu story in China, however, continues to weigh on prices. The International Grains Council on Friday lowered their 2012-2013 Chinese soybean imports from 61 down to 59 MMT. China has closed down its open poultry market which has resulted in a slowdown in demand for soybeans and bean meal. New weather forecasts calling for an increase in rain for later this week is putting pressure on new crop bean prices this morning. Currently corn is trading 14 cents higher, beans are unchanged and wheat is up 8 cents. Look for mixed markets in the grain trade today.
4-26-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 cents higher on Thursday as the grain markets got some help from strong outside markets. The weekly jobless claims dropped to the lowest levels since 2008. A weaker dollar and stronger equities markets helped to give a much needed boost to commodities. The wheat market led the way up yesterday as traders became worried about the recent freezing temperatures in the HRW country. Temperatures dropped to near 20 degrees in the Texas Panhandle and damage to the wheat crop continues to be a big concern. Some in the trade believe that losses could be as high as 100 million bushels. Corn export sales came in at 13.2 million bushels yesterday of which 12.4 was for old crop and .8 was new crop. New crop sales were much lower than expected but this was overshadowed by the announcement of 21.2 million bushels of new sales to the PRC. The soybean market closed nearly 20 cents higher yesterday as reports surfaced that China was canceling beans out of Brazil due to logistics problems. There was also new optimism yesterday that China might be better able to contain the bird flu since everyone that has contracted the disease had previous contact with the birds. This reduced the threat of it being spread by contact with humans. Confirmed cases now stand at 23 deaths from the bird flu in China. Old crop US soybeans remain in tight supply and commercial demand continues to be strong. US crush margins remain profitable. Funds bought 8000 contracts of soybeans yesterday. Currently corn is 5 cents lower, beans are down 2 cents and wheat is down 6 cents. Look for the markets to trade lower today on a drier seven day outlook for the Midwest.
4-25-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed a penny higher on old crop and 4 cents higher on new crop as the market recovered some from Tuesday's selloff. Commercial demand for nearby corn still remains relatively strong as the ethanol grind increases on favorable margins. Planting delays continue in the Northern states as cool and wet weather hamper progress. North Dakota is expected to warm up this weekend and melt the snow which will create flooding along the Red River Valley. The lack of any sustained warm and dry weather across the Midwest will likely limit the planting potential in the near term. Some planting progress will likely continue to be made in the Southern states. Russia continues to make good progress planting corn and are now approaching 27% complete. This is nearly double the pace from a year ago. The soybean market closed 16 cents lower yesterday on weak export demand. The bird flu which started in the poultry industry has now killed 22 people in China. This now puts into question just how much demand may be lost due to this outbreak. US soybean exports could fall short of USDA's annual projections. This has put downward pressure on US soybean prices lately along with growing concerns over the Chinese economy. On the positive side, US crush margins have reached a 4 month high which is good for domestic demand. USDA did announce a sales this week of 116,000 MT of beans for next year to unknown destinations. The weather forecast showed some improvement over the next couple of days but it is questionable about how much planting progress will actually be made in the Northern corn belt. Currently corn is up a penny, beans are up 6 cents and wheat is a penny higher. Look for the grain markets to trade steady to slightly higher today.
4-24-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Nearby corn futures closed 7 cents lower on Tuesday and new crop was down 9 1/2 cents as drier and warmer weather was forecast for the Midwest over the next week. The trade is expecting that some planting progress will be made especially in the southern part of the corn belt as temperatures warm up and soils dey out. Monday's planting progress report, however, showed that only 4% of the nation's corn crop was in the ground compared to a 16% average pace. Last year 26% of the corn crop was planted. The trade still feels that there is plenty of time left to get the corn crop planted with the expectation of trend line yields so consequently the markets haven't reacted to the upside. The Chinese economy remains sluggish and concerns still exist about a slowdown in demand. The bird flu is still prevalent in China and now Germany has reported an outbreak of H5N1 at 2 turkey farms. The soybean market closed 2 1/2 cents higher on old crop Tuesday as tight US supplies of soybeans remain a concern. Soybean crush margins improved by 20 to 40 cents per bushel last week which is helping to keep domestic demand for beans strong. However, the bird flu in China, a slowing Chinese economy and increasing supplies of South American beans continues to worry traders about future US demand. Brazil is now believed to be 86% harvested on beans but shipment delays of up to 60 days still remain a problem there. High water levels are still a problem in the Midwest. The Illinois river is closed this week along with the Mid and Upper Mississippi river. Some closures may extend into next week. Currently corn is trading 5 cents higher, beans are up 2 cents and wheat is down 2 cents. Look for the markets to trade steady to slightly higher this morning.
4-23-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 1/2 cents higher on Friday as some stories circulated in the trade that 1 to 3 million acres could be lost to corn due to the wet cold weather this spring. Parts of Nebraska, the Dakota's and Minnesota have received several inches of snow over the past couple of days which will prevent planting there for quite some time. Recent heavy rains across most of the Midwest will keep planters out of the fields for at least a week or more and additional rain is predicted for this week. USDA will release the planting progress report this afternoon. Not much progress is expected over last week. Most estimates are looking for the US planting pace to come in at 5 to 6% complete vs 19% average and 28% last year. High water levels led to a partial closing of the Mississippi river on Friday. Basis levels have backed off as much as a dime since Thursday. The soybean market closed 2 cents lower on Friday as a slowdown in world economies and continued worries over the bird flu outbreak in China remain a threat to soybean demand. The death toll continues to grow in China and some have voiced concern over the bird flu spreading to other livestock which could really hurt US soybean exports to China. The soybean basis did back off 10 to 15 cents on Friday due to flooding problems along the Illinois river. High water problems are expected to exist for up to 10 more days. Areas of rain are expected again tommorrow and on Friday and Saturday which will prevent corn planting in the Midwest and Delta. As we get into May, the traders will start to focus more on planting delays which could result in 1 to 2 million more acres being planted to soybeans this year. Currently corn is trading down 10 cents, beans are 11 cents lower and wheat is 19 cents lower. Look for the grain markets to trade lower today.
4-19-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN IS HIGHER, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE STEADY TO LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Nearby corn futures closed down 16 cents yesterday on ideas that up to 2 MMT of corn demand will be lost due to the bird flu in China. There have been 17 deaths attributed to the flu so far. New concerns have also surfaced about the health of the Chinese economy. Rising Chinese government debt has made the financial markets a little skiddish lately. The European Union is believed to be in a recession and new concerns about the direction of the US economy have also surfaced. New crop corn also closed lower yesterday in spite of planting delays which will likely continue into next week due to the heavy rains that fell across the Midwest both Wednesday and Thursday. Up to 8 inches of rain fell in Central Illinois over the past couple of days. Snow has also accumulated in the Dakota's, Nebraska and Minnesota as a result of the latest storm. The soybean market closed 8 cents higher yesterday on steady demand for very tight supplies of old crop soybeans. USDA reported sales of 339,000 metric tons of soybeans on Thursday which shows continued strong demand for old crop beans. With new crop soybeans up 5 cents yesterday, it shows that the trade is not yet worried about planting delays. The trade has not yet showed any real concerns of corn switching to beans even though it will take a couple of weeks for soils to dry out in the Northern Plains and Midwest. Dry areas of Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa will benefit from the recent rainfall. Currently corn is trading 3 cents higher, beans are up 3 cents and wheat is down a penny.
4-18-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN IS STEADY AND BEANS AND WHEAT ARE TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Nearby corn futures closed 3 cents lower yesterday but new crop ended the day 2 cents higher. Beneficial rains fell across the Western Corn Belt including parts of Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa where they had been extremely dry. Illinois, Missouri and Indiana also received heavy rains which will delay corn planting across those states for a couple of weeks as rainfall is expected to continue well into next week. Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Dakota's are dealing with a lot of late season snow still on the ground and cold temperatures. Planting in those states will not be taking place anytime soon. Planting delays will likely trim back corn acres especially in the northern states this spring. Soybean futures closed up 11 cents yesterday as tight old crop supplies remain a big concern in the trade. Funds bought 5000 soybean contracts on the day. The availability of soybean is an ever growing problem and will likely become more difficult to find before the new crop supplies come in. The bird flu problems in China continue to grow worse as more people have died from the disease. This raises new concerns about the Chinese demand for both US and South American soybeans. Some places in China have now stopped selling live chickens.Slower economic growth in China, Canada and the EU have also raised demand concerns. In spite of some of the bearish news, nearby soybeans remained strong yesterday as good commercial demand was evident on the backs of tight old crop supplies. Currently corn is trading 3 cents higher, beans are up 17 cents and wheat is up 5 cents.
4-12-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents higher on Friday on continued tight corn stocks and a weather forecast which will continue to delay delay planting progress across the Midwest. The report released last Wednesday put US corn ending stocks at 757 million bushels which was below the trade expectations of 824. The biggest change was in the feed and residual usage which dropped by 150 million bushels. Exports were lowered by 25 million bushels but ethanol usage and food, seed and industrial categories were raised by 50 million bushels each. The net result is that ending stocks will remain very tight until the new crop supplies come in. Corn harvest could be much later than normal this year if the cool and wet conditions continue much longer. Weather will now be watched closely by the trade. A wet pattern will continue to delay Midwest planting this week and rain will stop any planting in the Southern Corn Belt around midweek. The soybean market closed 11 cents higher on Friday as funds bought nearly 5000 contracts of beans on the day. USDA announced the sale of 110,000 MT of new crop soybeans to unknown destinations. The South American bean harvest continues to move along as Argentina is now believed to be 1/4th done with their harvest. They are expected to harvest 48.5 MMT of soybeans this year. The March soybean crush numbers are expected to be released today. The trade is looking for the estimates to fall in the 136 to 137 range which is just slightly lower than last year's number of 140.5. Supplies of soybeans still remain very tight with carryout expected to be near 125 million bushels this year. Currently corn is trading down 5 cents, beans are down 2 cents and wheat is down 17 cents. Look for the markets to be lower today on poor economic performance out of China.
4-11-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 cents higher yesterday after USDA released their supply-demand report at 11AM. Immediately following the report, the corn market surged 12 cents on bullish US ending stocks numbers. The rally was short lived as the traders soon saw that the world stocks numbers were much higher than anyone estimated. US corn stocks came out at 757 million bushels which was much lower than the 812 expected by the trade. The initial reaction was bullish and the corn market charged higher. The traders soon realized that the world stocks numbers came in much higher than anticipated at 125.3 MMT. The trade was expecting a number below 120. This drove the corn market lower and resulted in a 32 cent trading range on the day. Brazil's corn crop was raised by 1.5 MMT and the European Union's corn crop was raised by 1.4 MMT. The markets will now turn their attention to the weather. The soybean market closed 3 cents lower yesterday after experiencing a similar situation as in corn. USDA's ending soybean stocks number came in lower than expectations at 125 million bushels. The trade was expecting 136. Immediately following the release of the report, soybeans rallied 16 cents. Then the world stocks numbers came out and were much higher than expected. USDA put the world soybean stocks at 62.6 MMT which was much above the expected 59.8. This caused the soybean market to drop and resulted in a 25 cent trading range. Argentina and Brazil's soybean production was left unchanged at 51.5 MMT and 83.5 MMT respectively. China's imports were reduced by 1.2 MMT due to a draw down of their own soybean stocks. Currently corn is trading up 8 cents, beans are up 6 cents and wheat is up 3 cents. Look for some recovery in prices today.
MORNING TRADE : CORN IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER, BEANS ARE LOWER AND WHEAT IS TRADING UNCHANGED THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 11 1/2 cents lower on Thursday as the latest economic concerns both here and abroad weighed in on market prices. The US jobless claims report yesterday showed an increase of 28,000 more claims than was expected on renewed fears that the US economy may not be improving as fast as originally thought. Also, the Bank of Japan announced yesterday that they were going to pump 1.4 trillion dollars into their economy within 2 years to try to stimulate growth. This devalued their currency by over 3% and caused the US Dollar to rally which hurts US exports. Corn export shipments this year are at only 45% of last year's total. In fact, the US has imported about 125 million bushels of corn as Argentina remains the lowest cost provider. The soybean market closed 8 cents lower yesterday on ideas that the bird flu outbreak in China could hurt demand for US soybeans. Yesterday November soybeans traded at the lowest level in nine months. The market will soon be turning their attention to South American soybeans. US beans in the nearby slot have been purchased lately by the Chinese despite a dollar per bushel premium to Brazilian beans due to problems of loading at the South American ports. It's just a matter of time until China turns their attention to South America to meet their nearby soybean needs. The Brazilian bean line-up still continues to be very long with volume near 400 million bushels. Currently corn is trading 5 cents higher, beans are down 9 cents and wheat is unchanged.
4-4-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up a penny yesterday as the grain markets have turned negative since the grain stocks and acreage report was released a week ago. The report put the March 1st stocks number at 5.399 billion bushels which was 369 million bushels higher than the average trade estimate. The result has been a drop in cash corn prices of nearly a dollar per bushel. Some now think that the corn carryout number could rise above 900 million bushels on the next report. If we get 97.3 million acres planted to corn this year with good weather some think that next year's carryout could come in above 2 billion bushels. There has been some planting progress in the southern states but very little progress has been made in the Midwest and weather forecasts are calling for 1 to 2 inch rains across the corn belt for next week. The soybean market closed 14 cents lower yesterday as funds sold nearly 7000 contracts of soybeans on the day. There was talk within the trade yesterday that there was an outbreak of bird flu reported in China. This was partially responsible for the sharp break in bean prices yesterday. US soybean exports are starting to slow down now as South American beans are becoming more readily available. Bean production out of Brazil this year is estimated at 81.5 MMT and Argentina's production is currently estimated at around 50. Currently corn is trading 4 cents lower, beans are down 7 cents and wheat is down 8 cents. Look for lower grain markets today on negative economic news and worries out of North Korea.
4-2-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE TRADING HIGHER AND BEANS ARE LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents lower on Tuesday as fund liquidation continued into another day. Funds sold another 6000 contracts on the day. The latest weather forecasts across the Midwest are calling for 1 to 2 inches of rain starting this weekend and continuing through Thursday of next week. This may further slow any attempts at planting progress since many areas are already wet and soil temperatures are still much to cool. Planting progress however, can be accomplished pretty quickly given the right soil conditions. Farmer movement of grains has been slowed by the larger stocks report which was released last Thursday. End users appear to be waiting until the market reaches a bottom before they commit to booking their forward needs. The soybean market closed 3 cents higher on old crop and 4 cents lower on new crop yesterday. Old crop gained support on ideas that Brazil's soybean crop could be lowered another 1/2 mmt due to disappointing yields in some areas. New crop was lower on ideas that if rains and wet weather delay corn planting then more soybeans could go into the ground this spring. There has been a lot of fund liquidation over the past couple of days and hopefully they are getting that out of their system. Heavy rainfall is expected to occur across the Southern Plains and Delta over the next couple of days which will benefit the wheat crop. Currently corn is trading 5 cents higher, beans are down 4 cents and wheat is trading 14 cents higher. Look for a mixed trade in the grain markets today.
3-29-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down the 40 cent limit on Thursday after the USDA report put March 1st corn stocks at 5.4 billion bushels. That was nearly 370 million bushels larger than the average trade estimate of 5.030 billion bushels. The feed and residual usage was down 478 million bushels from the prior period which caught the trade by surprise. The result was limit down on old crop corn. The acreage report for corn put planting intentions at 97.3 million acres which was just exactly what the trade had been expecting. The southern states of Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas all showed increases in corn acreage while Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, and South Dakota all came in with lower corn acres than last year. The soybean market closed 49 cents lower on Thursday following the USDA report which was released at 11AM. The March 1st soybean stocks came in at 999 million bushels which was 52 million higher than the average trade guess of 947. The soybean acreage estimate came in at 77.1 million which was 1.4 million below the average trade guess of 78.5 million acres. Last year there were 77.2 million acres planted to soybeans. Using the current acreage estimate along with USDA's assumption of a 44.5 bushel per acre yield, would put the ending stocks for next year at a very comfortable 250 million bushels. Currently cash corn is trading 30 cents lower, beans are down 10 cents and wheat is 5 cents lower. Look for lower markets today as the trade tries to continue to digest the numbers from Thursday's stocks and acreage report.
3-28-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND BEANS ARE STEADY TO LOWER AND WHEAT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 cents higher yesterday as funds bought 6000 contracts of corn on the day. The USDA will release their stocks and acreage estimates at 11AM today. Traders are looking for a March 1st stocks number near 5.030 billion bushels for corn and an acreage number around 97.3. A stocks number below 4.9 will be considered friendly and a number above 5.2 will be bearish. Ethanol margins were a little lower this week but are still profitable through the first of June. The latest weather forecasts continue to call for below normal temperatures through the middle of April which will not bode well for early planting of corn. This may have an impact on new crop corn prices if forecasts continue cool beyond that point. The soybean market closed 6 cents higher on Wednesday on fund buying ahead of the USDA report to be released today. Funds bought around 3000 contracts on the day. March 1st soybean stocks are estimated to come in near 948 million bushels on today's report. The range falls between 912 to 1.059. The average guess for soybean acres came in at 78.5 with the range of estimates falling between 77.5 to 80.0. South America continues to move along with bean harvest as Brazil is nearing 70% complete. They are expecting a record harvest but port delays continue to be a big problem. Domestic demand for soybeans remains strong as soybean crush numbers are currently 70 million bushels higher than last year. Currently corn is trading down 2 cents, beans are 3 cents lower and wheat is a penny higher. Look for a mixed trade ahead of the USDA report today.
3-27-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING STEADY TO HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents lower on Thursday on continued position squaring ahead of the USDA reports to be released at 11 AM tomorrow. The trade is looking for March 1st corn stocks to come in around 5.025 billion bushels. Last year the stock number was 5.250. The average guess for 2013 corn acres came in at 97.3 million acres with the range between 96.8 to 98.0. Several of the southern states are continuing to plant corn. Texas is 48% done with corn planting vs 43% average. Louisiana is now 85% complete vs 58% on average. Mississippi is 37% planted vs 21 on average. The cold and wet weather in the Midwest will slow down any planting attempts for several weeks. A large area still has snow cover throughout the corn belt and will be slow to melt with below average temps forecast over the next 10 to 14 days. There has been some talk in the trade lately that Argentine corn and milo is being imported into the US. This has been weighing on nearby corn prices. The soybean market closed 10 cents higher yesterday as USDA announced that 4 cargos of new crop beans were sold to China. On the USDA report tomorrow, the trade is looking for soybean planting acres of 78.5 million vs 77.2 million acres planted last year. March 1st soybean stocks are expected to come in at 948 million bushels vs year ago stocks of 1.374. Soybean stocks have continued to grow ever tighter due to strong exports this year. Port congestion in Brazil during their harvest season has helped US exports. It is taking more than 60 days for vessels to get loaded at some of the ports. Currently corn is a penny lower, beans are a penny higher and wheat is unchanged. Look for the markets to continue postioning themselves ahead of tomorrow's report.
3-25-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN IS LOWER AND BEANS AND WHEAT ARE STEADY TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents higher yesterday as traders position themselves ahead of the Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Planting report to be released on Thursday morning at 11 AM. New crop corn was also higher on ideas that there may be some corn belt planting delays due to the cold weather and recent heavy snows. Many areas in Central Illinois received over 12 inches of snow along with parts of Missouri and Indiana over the weekend. Central US temperatures should moderate by the weekend but will remain mostly below normal over the next 7 to 10 days. The long range forecast for April thru June suggests above to much above normal moisture for all of the Midwest. Trade estimates for Thursday's USDA acreage report came in at 97.3 million planted acres for corn with the range falling between 96.8 to 98.0. The average estimate for the March 1st corn stocks came in at 4.995 billion bushels with a range between 4.916 to 5.248. The soybean market closed 3 cents lower on old crop on Monday and 5 cents higher on new crop. Funds sold nearly 3000 contracts of soybeans on the day. New crop soybeans were higher yesterday as it was announced that China purchased 234,000 mt of new crop soybeans from the US. The average trade guess for March 1st soybean stocks came in at 948 million bushels with a range of 912 to 1.059. last year March 1st stocks were at 1.374. The average guess for soybean acres came in at 78.4 million planted acres which would be a new record high. Brazil is estimated to be approaching 65% harvested on soybeans which is about on pace with last year. Harvest will likely continue to move along at a brisk pace as the 6 to 10 day forecast in South America calls for normal temperatures and below normal rainfall. Currently corn is trading 3 cents lower, beans are up 2 cents and wheat is up a penny. Look for a mixed trade in the markets today.
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND BEANS ARE STEADY TO A LITTLE LOWER AND WHEAT IS TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 cents higher on Thursday after struggling early in the session on a stronger dollar. The rally in the stock market and a projected 2% US growth rate helped to support prices later in the session. Corn export sales came in at 25.7 million bushels which was higher than the expectations of between 8 to 20. China bought 4.4 million bushels of old crop corn and 7.5 million bushels of new crop. There has been some talk in the trade that some countries are substituting wheat for corn in their feed rations. Ethanol margins have now turned positive and is giving support to corn prices. USDA will release their March 1st stocks report and acreage estimates on March 28th. Some think that the stocks number could be bullish due to higher usage in the feed / residual category. The soybean market closed down 11 1/2 cents on Thursday as funds sold nearly 5000 contracts of soybeans on the day. Brazil is now estimated to be just over 50% done with soybean harvest and weather forecasts for the next 10 days calling for normal temperatures and precipitation. Soybean export sales came in at 28.8 million bushels which was at the low end of expectations of between 26 to 40. China took 6.7 million bushels of old crop beans and 4.6 million bushesl of new crop. Soybean crush numbers are to be released today at 11 o'clock . The February crush is expected to come in at 142.4 million bushels. The record crush for the month of February is 148.4. Currently corn is trading unchanged, beans are up a penny and wheat is down 4 cents.
3-14-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher on Tuesday in another day of light fund buying activity. Traders continued to buy into the corn market as corn stocks will remain very tight until the new crop can be harvested. The weather pattern looks to remain wet for some time across the Midwest and if it continues into Spring it could cause planting delays. This could reduce the 99 million acres that the trade originally believed could have been planted to corn this year. Also the insurance guarantee for soybean is much higher than last year at $12.87 this year vs last year at $12.54. The corn guarantee is slightly lower at $5.65 this year VS $5.68 last year. The corn planters have been rolling along in Texas as the state is now 29% planted and Louisiana is on pace at about 20% planted with their corn. The soybean market closed 11 cents lower on Tuesday on some light profit taking. Brazil continues to plug along with soybean harvest as they approach 50% complete. They are about 15% ahead of their normal harvest pace. Argentina has been harvesting some corn but are about 15 days away from starting into bean harvest. There was some talk in the trade yesterday that one private forecaster had lowered their corn plantings this year form 99 to 97 million acres and increased bean acres from77.8 to 80. This was mostly due to the price differential between new crop corn and beans. USDA will release their planting estimates on March 28th. The soybean crush numbers will be released this Friday. Most in the trade are looking for the crush to be in the 142-143 million bushel range. Currently corn is trading 2 cents lower, beans are down 14 cents and wheat is down a penny.
3-12-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE TRADING STEADY TO HIGHER AND BEANS ARE TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 8 cents higher on Monday as the trade continued to react to Friday's positive supply-demand report for corn. Corn export inspections came out at the high end of expectations at 14.4 million bushels. The trade estimate was between 10 to 15. There has been somewhat of a shift in direction for the funds as they have gone from being short more than 4600 contracts of corn to long a little over 17,000 contracts. The tight old crop supplies is likely the key factor driving this. The trade may be beginning to realize that we will likely not see the early start to planting this year that we saw last year. This will keep supplies very tight until the new crop is ready for harvest. The long range precipitation for March thru May suggests above to much above normal moisture for Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan and most of Ohio, along with the Eastern half of Iowa and Minnesota. The soybean market closed 8 1/2 cents higher yesterday as funds were buyers of around 4000 contracts of soybeans on the day. Some in the trade believe that USDA has underestimated US soybean exports. China has continued to buy US beans to meet their nearby needs as Brazilian port delays grow ever larger. Backups continue to be longer than 40 days. It is believed that nearly half of the Brazilian bean crop has been harvested. Brazils's 10 day forecast calls for normal conditions which will keep the harvest pace going. In Argentina forecasters are calling for below normal temperatures and below normal rainfall over the next week to 10 days. Currently corn is trading a penny higher, beans are down 8 cents and wheat is trading 2 cents lower.
3-11-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 12 cents higher on Friday after the USDA supply-demand report came out friendly for the corn market. The corn carryout for 2012-13 came out unchanged from last month at 632 million bushels. This was a friendly surprise as the trade was looking for the number to come in around 649. USDA reduced corn exports by 75 million and increased imports by 25 million bushels and surprisingly increased feed and residual use by 100 million leaving the carryout number unchanged from February. Ethanol usage stayed the same at 4.5 billion bushels. World corn stocks decreased by 800,000 mt. Argentina corn production was down by 1/2 MMT to 26.5 and Brazil remained unchanged at 72.5 MMT. The soybean market closed 2 1/2 cents lower on Friday as the USDA report left 2012-13 soybean carryout unchanged at 125 million bushels. The trade was looking for a 3 million bushel reduction in the carryout. Global soybean stocks showed an increase of 90,000 to 60.2 MMT vs year ago stocks of 55.25. Argentina's soybean production was lowered by 1.5 MMT to 51.5 while Brazil remained unchanged at 83.5. Last year Argentina produced 40.1 MMT and Brazil came in at 66.5. The Chinese soybean imports for February dropped by 40% to 2.9 MMT. The Brazilian bean vessel line-up continues to grow longer and truck lines in Santos have been reported to be 11 miles long. Currently corn is trading a penny higher, beans are up 4 cents and wheat is trading unchanged.
3-8-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND BEANS ARE TRADING HIGHER AND WHEAT IS LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher on Thursday in position squaring ahead of the USDA supply-demand report to be released at 11 AM today. Corn carryout is expected to come in about 17 million bushels higher than last month's estimate of 632. The Argentine corn and bean production numbers are expected to come in a little lower today. There was some talk in the trade yesterday that corn was being imported into the southeast US. The weekly corn export sales report came in below expectations yesterday as cancellations of old crop corn reduced in that category to a negative 2 million bushels. New crop corn sales totaled 8.1 million bushels with China being the featured buyer. The soybean market closed 7 1/2 cents higher yesterday as funds bought nearly 3000 contracts of soybeans on the day. The soybean export report released on Thursday showed better than expected totals of 50.8 million bushels. The backup of vessels at the Brazilian ports have shifted more nearby bean business to the US. The USDA report today is expected to show a decrease in soybean carryout by around 3 million bushels. The trade is also looking for a decrease in South American bean production of 2 MMT. The South American weather weather forecasts are calling for dry conditions in Argentina over the next 10 days and normal rains for Brazil. Currently corn is trading 2 cents higher, beans are up 8 cents and wheat is down 3 cents.
3-7-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND BEANS ARE TRADING LOWER AND WHEAT IS TRADING HIGHER.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 20 1/2 cents lower yesterday on ideas that the heavy snow that fell across the Midwest and Plains States in recent days is helping to reduce moisture deficits and increase prospects for the wheat crop and also cereal grains. The stronger dollar and lower crude oil prices also weighed on commodities yesterday. On Friday, USDA will release their latest supply-demand report. Traders are looking for the corn carryout to increase by 11 million bushels. The average guess for the corn carryout is 643 million bushels vs February's estimate of 632. Many in the trade are looking for reductions in both corn exports and ethanol usage. The Argentine corn production estimate is expected to drop by 1.5 MMT down to 25.5 and Brazil is expected to remain unchanged at 72.5 MMT. The soybean market closed 1/2 cent lower on Wednesday after trading higher earlier in the session. Soybean prices were driven lower by the weakness in the wheat and corn markets. The weather pattern in South America has turned drier and may further reduce crop production totals. On the report Friday, the USDA is expected to lower the Argentine soybean production by as much as 2 to 3 MMT. Brazil's bean production is expected to remain steady to slightly lower than the 83.5 MMT estimated last month. USDA is expected to lower soybean carryout by 5 million bushels now down to 120 million. US soybean exports have continued to be very strong due mainly to Brazil's current export problems. The Brazilian vessel line-up continues to be around 10 MMT. Currently corn is trading 2 cents lower, beans are unchanged and wheat is up 4 cents.
3-6-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND BEANS ARE TRADING HIGHER AND WHEAT IS STEADY THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 cents lower on Monday after trading as much as 4 cents higher during the session. The funds sold 7000 corn contracts on the day. Wheat was sharply lower yesterday on ideas that wheat conditions has improved especially in the Plains States. Kansas wheat ratings improved by 1% and Oklahoma improved by 7% over last weeks ratings. Some of the extreme southern states are planting corn. Texas is close to 15% finished compared to 5% last year. Some of the other southern states need a little more drying time as the soils have become wet from the recents rains. It was reported that China bought 1 cargo of US new crop corn overnight. The soybean market closed 18 1/2 cents higher on Monday on strong export numbers. Soybean exports came in at 40.2 million bushels which was higher than expectations of between 30 to 35. The big number is largely attributed to the fact that Brazilian ports are backed up and are not able to meet export demands so consequently China has been still buying US beans to meet their nearby needs. This continues to reduce US supplies which are already very low. USDA will issue their latest supply demand report on Friday. The average trade guess for 2012-13 soybean carryout is 122 million bushels vs 125 in February. Estimates for Brazilian soybean production are 83.4 MMT vs 83.5 in February. Argentina is projected to come in at 51 MMT vs 53 in February. Currently corn is trading two cents higher, beans are up 16 cents and wheat is up a penny.
3-1-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 8 cents higher on Thursday on commercial buying and some fund buying. The funds bought 12,000 corn contracts on the day. Corn imports came in strong at 20.2 million bushels which was above the trade expectations of 14 to 18. There was talk in the trade that China may be trying to book new crop US corn to meet their increasing feed needs. They may be in the market for 5 to 6 MMT of US corn as Brazil is still struggling with port issues. The crop insurance guarantee for corn based on the February averaging period looks to be $5.65. This is very close to last year's number of $5.68. The soybean market closed 13 cents higher on Thursday on some strong commercial buying in the bean pit. Export sales were very good for old crop soybeans yesterday coming in at 25.3million bushels. China was the leading buyer. This proves that China is still buying US old crop beans mainly because of the lineups at the Brazil ports. US beans are more expensive than South American beans. The spring version of the crop insurance guarantee for soybeans came in at $12.87. This is higher than last year's number of $12.55. The soy-corn ratio based on insurance guarantees wiil favor corn planting over beans as the ratio based off of insurance prices is 2.28 to 1. Informa will be out with their production estimates today. Currently corn is trading 4 cents lower, beans are down 14 cents and wheat is 6 cents lower.
2-28-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents higher yesterday in a day of light trading. Demand for corn remains weak with exports earlier in the week coming in at only 11.5 million bushels. It was slightly higher than the previous week but still well below the 20 million bushels needed per week to achieve USDA's current yearly projections. Funds have also exited commodities by lowering their long positions by 65% in the last couple of weeks. Traders seem to be putting more of their money into the stock market right now and away from grains. The Rosario Grain Exchange has lowered the Argentine corn production from 26.5MMT down to 25.5. Traders will continue to monitor this as they get into the full swing of harvest. The soybean market closed 10 cents higher yesterday on announcements of more sales of soybeans for old and new crop. USDA announced a sale of 120,000 mt of old crop beans and a sale of 120,000 mt of new crop beans. China did announce the other day that they would be selling beans out of their reserves to buy them time before exports become available from South America. Wait time at the ports in Brazil have been as long as 35 to 45 days to load vessels. This has slowed down soybean exports out of Brazil. Chinese demand will be very important throughout the coming year and traders believe that this year demand will be strong due to increasing vegetable oil demand, strong meal usage, and growing domestic feed demand. Currently corn is trading 6 cents higher, beans are up 17 cents and wheat is trading 7 cents higher. Look for the grain markets to be higher today due to a weaker dollar.
2-26-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN IS TRADING HIGHER, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE TRADING LOWER.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher on Monday on light commercial buying. The Plains States received some decent amounts of snow yesterday including totals of 10 inches and higher in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and across the Central Corn Belt. This will be very beneficial to the wheat crop and bring some much needed moisture to some previously very dry areas. Corn export numbers released yesterday came in at the low end of expectations of 11.6 million bushels. The trade was expecting the number to fall between 13 to 18 and 20 is what is needed weekly to stay on pace to acheive USDA's yearly projections. USDA did announce the sale yesterday of 120,000 mt of corn to unknown destinations for the marketing year 13/14. The trade will be keeping an eye on whether mandatory spending cuts will be allowed to go through at the end of the month. Sequestration is actually thought to be negative for commodities. The soybean market closed 10 cents lower yesterday on continued fund selling. Funds sold around 5000 soybean contracts during the session on Monday. Some rain fell over dry areas of South America over the weekend and more is forecast for this Friday and Saturday. Brazil's lineup at the ports continues to grow larger and delays in loading vessels are sometimes over 45 days. Brazil's soybean harvest is now estimated at 27% complete which is 7 points above year ago levels. Soybean exports were a little lower than expected yesterday coming in at 27.2 million bushels. USDA reported that China bought 120,000 mt of US soybeans for new crop. Currently corn is trading 4 cents higher, beans are down 3 cents and wheat is trading a penny lower. Look for choppy trade in the grain markets today.
2-22-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 10 cents lower on Thursday as some much needed moisture was in the forecast for the Plains States and across the Midwest. Recent precipitation across some ot the drier areas of the US are increasing the crop prospects for the coming year. Much more moisture is needed in the Plains States, however, to make up for the year long deficits. At the USDA Outlook Conference yesterday, they estimated 2013 corn production at 14.53 billion bushels on 96.5 million acres planted. They used a trendline yield of 165 bushels per acre. This number surprised the trade and as a result the corn prices moved lower. Today USDA will release the rest of the supply-demand numbers. The cash soybean market closed 5 cents higher yesterday as USDA announced the sale of 130,000 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations of which over half of the total was for the current marketing year. At the USDA Outlook Forum yesterday, they put the 2013 soybean production estimate at a record 3.405 billion bushels. They used planted acreage of 77.5 million with a yield of 44.6bushels per acre. This would imply a big increase over last year's production of 3.015. The Brazilian soybean crop this year is expected to be 15 to 16 mmt larger than last year and Argentina is expected to be up by 9mmt. Last year South America suffered from a severe drought. Yesterday NOAA released their latest drought outlook and it showed some improvement in moisture for the Western Corn Belt and Midwest over the next 90 days. Rainfall prospects also increase over the weekend for crop growing areas in Argentina and Southern Brazil. Currently corn is trading 3 cents higher, beans are up 13 cents and wheat is 3 cents higher. Look for a little stronger markets especially early in the trading session today.
2-21-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT FUTURES ARE TRADING AND BEANS ARE STEADY TO A LITTLE HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 cents higher on Wednesday on renewed commercial buying. Export demand for corn remains sluggish. Last week corn exports were only half of what is needed to meet the 20.1 million bushels per week to reach USDA's projections for the year. The recent rains in Argentina have now raised the corn crop expectations there. The corn crop is expected to be 3 mmt larger than last year with many in the trade looking for a crop near 24 mmt. The Brazilian corn crop estimate remains unchanged at 70 mmt. The USDA Outlook Conference starts today and runs through Friday. The USDA put 2013-14 corn production at 14.53 billion bushels on acres of 96.5 million. The soybean market closed 12 cents higher yesterday putting bean prices the highest they have been since early February. There is talk of a potential port strike in Brazil starting tommorrow. Vessels are already taking over 30 days to get loaded in Santos and as much as 45 days in Paranagua. A strike will only make that situation much worse. In recent days, China has continued to buy US beans to meet their immediate needs because of port problems in South America. This continues to reduce US supplies. Currently the US needs to ship China another 107 million bushels of beans between now and Sept 1 st. With the current port situation in Brazil, China could end up taking many more beans from the US. We will have to see how this scenario plays out in the weeks ahead. Currently corn is trading 5 cents lower, beans are down 3 cents and wheat is down 10 cents. Look for a mixed trade in the grain markets today.
2-19-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
No markets yesterday due to the Presidents Day Holiday. Friday was the first day that corn traded higher in the past week and a half. Cash corn traded 4 cents higher on that day. Funds bought 5000 corn contracts on Friday. Over the weekend Northern Argentina received some good rains over 65% of the major crop growing areas. This will aid the later planted corn as it will be in the pollination phase shortly. The temperatures are also expected to cool down during that time frame. Some analysts are now increasing the Argentine corn production by 1.5 million tons up to a total of 24.0. Argentina has already harvested around 4% of their corn crop. Some of the early yield reports are coming in better than expected in Cordoba and Santa Fe. The cash soybean market closed 6 cents higher on Friday despite the annoucement of a 250,000 mt soybean cancellation. The crush report was released Friday morning and came in a little lower than expected. The trade was looking for a number near 160 but instead in came in at 158.1 Argentina is expected to be mostly dry this week with cooler temperatures on top for the next 10 days. Brazil's harvest is underway with 15% nearly completed. There is a long line to load commodities in the ports as the dock stike has slowed down exports. On Friday USDA will have the Annual Outlook Conference in which they will estimate the 2013 crop size. Currently corn is trading 2 cents higher, beans are 23 cents higher and wheat is now 3 cents higher. Look for a mixed trade in the markets today.
2-14-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed a penny lower on Wednesday in a choppy day of trade. After nine straight days of losses some in the trade now feel that the corn market is due for a technical correction to the upside. Commercial buying typically follows a downward revision in prices, it just depends on where they feel the bottom is. Funds at some point will also want to cover their short positions before the market rallies. Weakness was also attributed to some improved weather forecasts in South America adding more rain to the dry areas of Argentina. Corn exports this morning came in at 11.2 million bushels which was within the range of expectations of 6 to 13. This number was just a little lower than the 12.1 million bushels needed per week to stay on track with USDA's projection for the year. The soybean market closed 2 cents higher yesterday after several days of lower markets. The soybean crush report is due out shortly and is expected to come in around 163 million. This compares with 160 in December and year ago figures of 143. The latest weather forecasts increased precipitation amounts for Argentina to around 1 inch for this weekend. China has been celebrating their New Year holiday this week which has resulted in slow soybean exports lately. Soybean export inpections released this morning were a little disappointing at only 8.7 million bushels. The trade was looking for the number to come in between 26 to 41. Currently corn is trading down 2 cents, beans are 14 cents lower and wheat is down 2 cents.
2-13-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 cents lower on Tuesday on continued liquidation by the funds. Corn has closed lower over the past seven days on weak export demand and improving weather conditions in both the US and South America. On a positive note, some ethanol plants are coming back on line due to improving margins. Reports are that 4 ethanol will be starting up in production over the coming weeks. A news story circulated yesterday that Russia banned imports of US beef, pork and turkey. Last year Russia took 5 to 6% of our pork and beef exports. It is still unclear the reason for this but it weighed on commodity prices on Tuesday. The Chinese markets are closed this week in celebration of their New Year. The soybean market closed 11 cents lower on Tuesday as beans were unable to hold on to early gains. Funds sold nearly 6000 soybean contracts on the day. News circulated yesterday that Barclay's would stop agricultural trading with hedge funds. They are currently in the process of liquidating their long positions which is putting downward pressure on commodity prices. Some weather forecasters also added more rainfall to the dry areas in Argentina and Brazil which could still improve their soybean crop. The New Year holiday in China has slowed any new business with them this past week. Currently corn is trading 4 cents lower, beans are down 9 cents and wheat is 5 cents lower. Look for a choppy trade in the grain markets today.
2-12-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE TRADING LOWER AND BEANS ARE TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents lower on Monday in another day of fund liquidation. The March futures contract challenged the price support level of near $7. USDA released their baseline projections yesterday morning putting corn planted acreage at 96 million with harvested acres of 88.3. Using 163.5 bushels per acre yield, 2013-14 corn carryout came in at 2.067 billion bushels. They put the average farm price for corn at $5.40. Corn exports came out yesterday at a strong 14.5 million bushels which was above the expectations of 5 to 10 million. China took nearly half of the total. The Goldman roll will be finished in a couple of days as managers seem to be shifting their portfolio's away from commodities. The soybean market closed down 21 cents yesterday as the funds were sellers of 6000 contracts of soybeans on the day. The market was a little skiddish yesterday due to South American forcasts calling for increased chances of rain in the dry areas of Argentina and Brazil. Soybean exports came out at a disappointing 30.2 million bushels vs 55.9 last week. The trade was looking for the number to come in between 45 to 50. The baseline projections released yesterday by USDA put soybean planted acres at 76 million with harvested acres of 75.1. Using a trendline yield of 44.4 bushels per acre, they projected a carryout of 357 million bushels for 2013-14. They are estimating the average farm price for soybeans to be $11.35. Currently corn is trading 3 cents lower, beans are up 5 cents and wheat is down 2 1/2 cents. Look for a mixed trade in the markets today.
2-11-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents lower on Friday after USDA released their supply-demand report. USDA put corn ending stocks at 632 million bushels which was down 30 million bushels from January's estimates. Corn exports were lowered by 50 million bushels but feed and industrial usage increased by 20 million bushels. World ending stocks increased by 2 MMT due to higher production in Brazil, Mexico and the Ukraine. USDA dropped the Argentine corn production by 1 MMT and raised Brazilian production by 1.5 MMT. Some decent rains fell over the weekend in our area dropping nearly 1/2 inch totals in most locations. This will help the river situation and should now allow normal drafts on barges for the balance of the month on the Mississippi River. The soybean market closed 34 cents lower on Friday following the USDA report. US soybean ending stocks fell within expetations at 125 million bushels which disclosed a 10 million bushel increase in the domestic crush. World soybean ending stocks were increased to 60.12 mt from 59.46 in January. That was an increase of 5 MMT from last year. Brazil's soybean production was increased to 83.5 mmt vs 82.5 estimated in January. The Argentine soybean production was decreased by a like amount from 54.0 in January to 53.0 on Friday's report. With soybeans unable to move above the 15 dollar level prior to the report, technical selling came into the marketplace on Friday driving the soybean prices sharply lower. Wheat ending stocks came in below trade expectations at 691 million bushels. The trade was expecting a number near 728. This helped support both corn and wheat prices on Friday. Currently corn is trading down 2 cents, beans are 20 cents lower and wheat is down 5 cents.
MORNING TRADE : CORN IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND BEANS AND WHEAT ARE TRADING A LITTLE LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed a penny higher yesterday in a ten cent trading range. Corn traded as much as eight cents higher but could not hold on to the gains. Weekly corn export inspections came in at 11 million bushels which was higher than last weeks 9.6 but below the weekly 21 million bushels needed to meet USDA's yearly projections. Even so cash corn has gained 50 cents in the past couple of weeks. The corn market got some support yesterday from forecasts for hot and dry weather to continue in Argentina, Southern Brazil and Paraguay over the next couple of days. Informa released their acreage estimate last Friday and put the 2013 corn acreage at 99.3 million, up from their previous estimate which came in at 99.0 million acres. The soybean market closed 22 1/2 cents higher yesterday on ideas that China may be looking to the US for some more beans in the near term. Delays in soybean harvest in Northern Brazil due to recent heavy rains is causing the Chinese to seek soybeans from the United States. Crush margins have improved in China so their demand for soybeans remains strong and it does not look like Brazil will be able to supply their immediate needs. Soybean export inpections came in at 48.1 million bushels on Monday which was higher than last week's 41.3 million bushels and above the top end of expectations. Also helping to support the soybean market yesterday was the fact that Argentina and Southern Brazil both need rain and the latest forecasts are not calling for much. Currently corn is trading unchanged, beans are down 5 cents and wheat is down 2 cents. Look for a choppy trade in the grain markets today.
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 1/2 cents higher on Tuesday on continued buying by both commercials and funds. The rally was spurred on by talks of hot and dry conditions developing in parts of South America. The central, western and northern regions of Argentina have now turned dry along with much of southern Brazil and the dryness is expected to continue for another 7 to 10 days. Traders will be monitoring the situation closely. Australia also seems to be having their weather worries with temperatures above 115 degrees in many wheat growing areas. Given the tight corn stocks and world wide weather concerns we could see a little more upward movement especially in old crop corn prices. The soybean market closed 4 1/2 cents lower yesterday after opening nearly 18 cents higher. Strong buying on the opening was soon followed by some profit taking. Early forecasts for South America called for the heat and dry weather to continue but later forecasts came in more moderate which may have caused some of the selloff yesterday in the bean pit. There has been some talk in the trade of late that the heat and dryness in parts of Argentina may be doing some damage to the soybean crop. Some analysts are reducing Argentine soybean estimates and others are increasing Brazil's numbers. Overall most feel that South American bean production will fall around 145 MMT which is still above last year's figures. Currently corn is trading 3 cents higher, beans are up 18 cents and wheat is up 6 cents.
1-15-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 15 cents higher on Monday on continued fund buying following the USDA report on Friday which put the corn carryout at only 602 million bushels. Funds bought 11,000 contracts of corn on the day. Corn exports came in at the low end of expectations at 9.2 million bushels. The trade was looking for the number to fall between 8 to 15. We need a little more than 20 million bushels per week to stay on track with USDA's yearly projections. Several corporate earnings reports will be out this week with analysts looking for some decent profit numbers. Weather is expected to be cold and dry across much of the corn belt and plains states over the next 6 to 10 days. The soybean market closed 45 cents higher yesterday on strong export numbers and on another announcement of a soybean sale to China. Soybean export sales came out at 39.1 million bushels yesterday which was in the middle of the range of expectations. We need only 20 million bushels weekly to meet USDA's yearly projections. USDA also announced a sale of 120,000 mt of old crop soybeans to China yesterday. Some short covering took place in the trade yesterday which also helped to drive soybean prices sharply higher. Central and Northern Argentina are now starting to turn a little too dry. Southern Brazil is also expected to be dry over the next week to 10 days as a dominate high pressure ridge will limit rainfall there. West central Brazil and portions of the Southeast are running moisture deficits of 4 to 8 inches. Currently corn is trading a penny higher, beans are up 5 cents and wheat is 5 cents higher.
1-14-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 10 cents higher on Friday following the USDA report. Final 2012 corn production came in at 10.780 billion bushels with a yield of 123.4 bushels per acre. Production was increased by 55 million bushels with an increase in yield of 1.1 bushels per acre. Harvested acres were decreased by 300,000. Feed usage and residual increased by 300 million bushels but exports dropped by 200 million bushels lowering the carryout down to 602 million bushels which was a drop of 45 million bushels from the previous report. The biggest surprise to the trade came in the 180 million bushel decline in the December 1 st stocks number to 8.03 billion bushels. Corn prices ran up 23 cents higher during the session and closed 10 cents higher on the day as a result of the report. The soybean market closed 7 cents lower on a slightly bearish USDA report for soybeans. Soybean production increased by 44 million bushels and was raised to 3.015 billion bushels bringing the national yield up to 39.6 BPA. Total usage increased by 39 million bushels mostly due to an increase in the crush numbers. Ending stocks increased by 5 million bushels putting 2012-2013 carryout at 135. December 1st soybean stocks came in at 1.966 billion bushels which was 18 million bushels below trade estimates. The net result was a lower soybean market. Beans traded nearly 30 cents lower at one time during the session but bounced back to close only down 7 cents. Currently corn is trading up 12 cents, beans are up 19 cents and wheat is trading 14 cents higher. Look for higher grain markets today.
1-11-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND BEANS ARE TRADING LOWER AND WHEAT IS HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents higher on Thursday in some pre-report position squaring. USDA will release their latest updates on supply-demand and final 2012 production numbers. The report will be released at 11 AM. The average guess for corn production came in at 10.682 billion bushels with the range coming in between 10.492 to 10.801. December 1st corn stocks are estimated at 8.216 billion bushels. Year ago stocks were at 9.647. Corn ending stocks for 2012-13 are projected at 675 million bushels with the range falling between 568 to 764. USDA's December estimate was 647. We have seen limit moves in the last 5 out of 6 years following this report in the corn market. We will see if the trend continues today. The soybean market closed down 6 cents yesterday in some light fund selling prior to today's report. Production and stocks numbers will be released today along with South American production estimates. Traders are looking for 2012 bean production to come in at 2.988 billion bushels with the range from 2.935 to 3.036. The December 1st bean stocks are projected to come in at 1.980 billion bushels with the range falling between 1.915 to 2.056. Last year's Dec 1st soybean stocks were at 2.370. Soybean ending stocks for 2012-13 are estimated at 133 million bushels. USDA's previous estimate came in at 130. Currently corn is trading a two cents lower, beans are down 16 cents and wheat is trading unchanged. Look for a volatile trade today following the 11 AM report.
1-10-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher on Tuesday on fund buying. Funds bought in excess of 3000 contracts of corn on the day. Some meterologists believe that dry conditions may resume in Brazil in the near future and could last into much of the growing season. This could severely impact Brazil's corn and bean crops. Traders continued to even up positions yesterday prior to the USDA report which will be released on Friday morning at 11 o'clock. The average trade guess for corn production on Friday's report is 10.626 billion bushels with a yield of 122.4 BPA. The previous USDA estimate for production was 10.725 billion bushels with a yield of 122.3. The average guess on harvested corn acreage by the trade came in at 86.8 million acres vs USDA at 87.7. The soybean market closed 2 cents lower yesterday spurred on by fund selling late in the session. More than likely the trade was squaring up positions prior to the report. The average guess for 2012 soybean production came in at 2.999 billion bushels with a yield of 39.6 BPA. This is up just slightly from USDA's last estimate of production at 2.971 with a yield of 39.3 BPA. Harvested acreage on soybeans is expected to remain unchanged from USDA's previous estimate of 75.7 million acres. Parts of Brazil received some rain overnight while Argentina remained dry. Australia is currently experiencing some extreme heat which is rapidly depleting soil moisture levels there. Currently corn is trading up 2 cents, beans are up a penny and wheat is down 3 cents. Look for choppy trade ahead of Friday's report.
1-8-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND BEANS ARE STEADY TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND WHEAT IS ALSO TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 cents higher on Monday as traders continue to position themselves ahead of the USDA report on Friday. USDA will be releasing the final 2012 production numbers along with supply-demand projections. The report will be released at 11 AM instead of the usual 7:30 release time. Average estimates for Dec 1st stocks on corn came in at 8.21 billion bushels with a range of 8.050 to 8.450. The average estimate for 2012-13 ending stocks came in at 667 million bushels with a range of 489 to 764. These are some of the tightest stock numbers in recent years. It will be interesting to see if actual harvested acreage numbers will be reduced on this report. The soybean market closed 21 cents higher on Monday on position squaring ahead of Friday's USDA report. The average estimate of the soybean carryout for Friday's report came in at 135 million bushels which is 5 million bushels higher than USDA's previous number. Soybean production numbers are expected to be higher than USDA's previous number of 2.971 billion bushels with a yield of 39.3 BPA. Informa put 2012 soybean production at 3.04 billion bushels with a yield of 40.1. Weekly soybean export numbers released yesterday came out at 39.7 million bushels which was in line with expectations. Currently corn is trading a penny higher, beans are up 3 cents and wheat is up 2 cents. Look for a choppy trade today.
1-7-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 cents lower on Friday on weak export demand and on increasing final production estimates. Funds continued to liquidate positions in the grain markets as export sales of only 1.9 million bushels weighed on prices. Informa also raised 2012 corn production numbers by 62 million bushels. They have now put 2012 corn production at 10.8 billion bushels which is above USDA's current estimate of 10.725. Ethanol production was also down for the week by 3.2% and was 17 million bushels below the same week last year. March corn futures closed nearly 14 cents lower for the week. The soybean market closed 19 cents lower on Friday as good weather in South America overshadowed the decent weekly export numbers. South America was mostly dry over much of last week which enabled Argentina to get more of their crops planted. Bean export sales came out at a strong 16 million bushels which was at the higher end of expectations. Informa's production estimates also came in higher than trade expectations which also helped to drive the soybean market lower. Informa raised soybean production to 3.040 billion bushels up from their previous estmate of 2.925. USDA's last estimate came in at 2.971. This raised the national soybean yield to 40.1 bpa up from USDA's previous of 39.3. Corn is currently trading 6 cents higher, beans are up 12 cents and wheat is trading up 6 cents.
1-4-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE TRADING LOWER AND BEANS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 1 1/2 cents lower on Thursday in another day of light market liquidation. One week from today USDA will release their final crop production numbers along with the latest supply-demand estimates. Corn supplies are the lowest that they have been in several years so any reductions in these numbers could cause a sharp run up in prices. Informa will release their January supply-demand numbers later this morning. Corn export numbers released this morning came out at a disappointing 1.9 million bushels. The trade was looking for the numbers to fall between 8 to 14. The soybean market closed 5 1/2 cents lower yesterday on another announcement of Chinese cancellations of 315,000 tons of soybeans for the current marketing year. China has now cancelled 1.2 million tons of soybeans in the past couple of weeks. Funds sold an estimated 4000 soybean contracts on the day. Argentina's weather was dry yesterday in the central and southern regions and are now estimated to have 85% of their soybeans planted. Some rain is expected there for the weekend. Soybean export numbers released this morning came out at the high end of expectations at 18.3 million bushels. The trade was looking for a number between 9 to 17. Currently corn is trading a penny lower, beans are unchange and wheat is down 1/2 cent. Look for a choppy day of trade today before the weekend.
1-3-13
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER TODAY.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 1/2 cents lower on Wednesday as funds sold nearly 8000 corn contracts on the day. The markets opened the day stronger yesterday on news of a fiscal cliff deal but quickly sold off on fund selling and on forecasts for continued good weather in South America. On Friday, January 11th USDA will release their final production numbers for 2012.It will be interesting to see if any adjustments are made to the actual harvested acreage. No adjustments have been made on any of the previous reports. The soybean market closed 13 cents lower on Wednesday after trading 25 cents higher after the opening bell. Buying enthusiasm quickly eroded and funds ended up selling nearly 7000 contracts on the day. The announcement yesterday of the extension of the farm bill into 2013 and the idea that biodiesel tax credits were extended gave the markets a rally in the opening session. Profit taking quickly took over on ideas of favorable South American weather prospects over the next 6 to 10 days. Argentina still has 18% of its soybeans yet to be planted along with 24% of the corn. Currently corn is trading 5 cents lower, beans are down 16 cents and wheat is trading 3 cents lower. Look for the markets to be on the defensive again today.
MORNING TRADE : UNCHANGED ON CORN AND HIGHER ON BEANS AND WHEAT.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents lower on Thursday in another day of fund liquidation. It looks like nothing will get resolved on the Fiscal Cliff before the year end which has made traders a little skiddish. The stock market was lower yesterday despite jobless claims falling to nearly a five year low. South American weather forecasts have showed some improvement with Argentina expected to be drier over the next 10 days and Brazil expected to receive 1 to 4 inches of rain over some much needed areas. Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to drop much faster than earlier thought. The biggest problem remains between St Louis and Cairo where traffic is expected to be impassable by next week. The soybean market closed down 6 cents on Thursday on continued fund selling. Cancellation of 840,000 mt of soybeans last week by the Chinese still looms large in the mind of traders. Improved South American weather has also weighed on bean prices over the past couple of days. Export sales numbers were released this morning due to the Christmas holiday. Traders were looking for soybean exports to fall between 4 to 11 million bushels today but the number fell a little short coming in at 3.2. Currently corn is trading 2 cents higher, beans are 7 cents higher and wheat is trading 10 cents higher. Look for a choppy trade in the grain markets today going into the weekend.
12-27-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE TRADING LOWER AND BEANS ARE TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 11 cents lower on Wednesday after opening a couple of cents higher. Export sales came in at 13.5 million bushels which was within the range of expectations of between 12 to 17 but still below what is needed to reach USDA's yearly projection of 1150 million bushels. Japan was the leading buyer followed by the Western Hemisphere and then China. An improving South American forecast also weighed on commodity prices yesterday. Argentina's forecast has turned drier through the weekend which will aid the planting progress. The Argentine Ag Minister now puts the corn crop at 28 MMT. Brazil's forecast has turned wetter which will be good for crop development there. The soybean market closed 15 cents lower yesterday after starting out the morning around a dime higher. The bean market quickly sold off on liquidation by the funds. The weekly export inspections came in at a respectable 44.5 million bushels which was above last week's 41.1 million bushels and higher than expectations of 37 to 42. USDA announced a couple of new sales to unknown and a 115,000 MT sale to China. Commercial traders have been taking a wait and see attitude on buying grain and have been closely following South American weather developments. Currently corn is trading a penny lower, beans are up 8 cents and wheat is trading 2 cents lower. Look for a mixed trade in the grain markets today.
12-21-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 6 1/2 cents on Thursday putting March corn futures at the lowest price since July 4th. Poor export sales, increasing corn acreage numbers for 2013, some improvement in the drought conditions in the Plains and Midwest states along with disappointment in the Fiscal Cliff drove corn prices lower again yesterday. Corn export sales came in at a meek 4.5 million bushels which was 56% below the previous week. Informa increased the corn acreage by 1.3 million acres from the previous report. The Midwest winter storm dropped 1 inch plus of moisture equivalent in many areas of the corn belt with another storm forecast for next Tuesday and Wednesday. Negotiations continue on the Fiscal cliff but nothing close to a resolution seems to be near. The soybean market closed down 28 cents on Thursday as China cancelled another 540,000 MT of US soybeans. Export sales came in at 23.2 million bushels a little below expectations of 24 to 31. The January soybean futures price dropped to the lowest level since November 21st. Argentina is still expected to plant 19.35 million hectacres of soybeans this year which is up 3% from last year. Argentina is currently 73% planted which is now just a little behind last year's pace of 77%. Some un-needed rain fell across parts of Argentina yesterday and more is predicted for next week. Currently corn is trading 7 cents higher, beans are up 15 cents and wheat is 6 cents higher. Look for the markets to trade a little higher today.
12-20-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 17 cents on Wednesday after being up 3 cents early in the day. Informa released their corn acreage estimate for 2013 putting corn planted acreage at 99.026 million acres. On their previous report, Informa put corn acreage at 97.7. After this report was released, corn prices dropped dramatically and ended 17 cents lower on the day. Another reason for the sharp drop in prices yesterday was due to an increase in precipitation over the Plains States and corn belt over the next couple of weeks. While this won't alleviate the drought across a big section of the country, it will definetly help add much needed moisture to a very dry grain growing area. The soybean market closed 29 cents lower on Wednesday on a continuation of yesterday's negative news that China cancelled 300,000 MT of US soybeans. The trade is fearful that there may be more soybean cancellations yet to come. It has now become cheaper for China to buy beans from South America than from the US. This could hurt US exports in the coming months. Argentina continues to be wet and planting delays are becoming more serious. Much needed rain is also in the forecast for most of Brazil over the nex couple of days. Currently corn is trading down 12 cents, beans are 28 cents lower and wheat is down 20 cents. Look for the markets to be on the defensive again today.
12-19-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND BEANS ARE STEADY TO LOWER AND WHEAT IS TRADING HIGHE THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents lower on Tuesday being pulled down in part by the cancellation of Chinese soybean contracts yesterday. Weather forecasts have added more moisture to the drought-stricken areas of the Plains States and Midwest over the next 6 to 10 days. Several forecasters are calling for up to 12 inches of snow next week for areas of the Central plains possibly extending as far east as Western Illinois. Informa will release their latest acreage numbers this morning. The latest South American weather forecasts are calling for normal rain in Argentina and Southern areas of Brazil. Some areas of Argentina have received 200 to 350% of normal rainfall in December to date. This has caused some in the trade to lower their estimates of Argentine corn production for this year. The soybean market closed 30 cents lower yesterday on news that China cancelled US soybeans to the tune of 300,000 MT. Informa will release their latest acreage estimates today. They put soybean acres at 80.1 on their previous report. Current prices support ideas farmers could return more per acre planting corn over beans which could shift some corn acres to beans this spring. Some in the trade believe that Argentina's soybean crop will fall short of USDA's estimate of 11.5 MMT this year due to wet conditions there. Currently corn and beans are trading down a penny and wheat is up 6 cents. Look for a mixed trade in the grain markets today.
12-18-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 7 cents on Monday despite continued planting delays in Argentina. Corn export inspections came out better than expected yesterday at 15 million bushels. The trade was looking for a number between 10 to 14. Renewed concerns about the Fiscal Cliff also resurfaced yesterday. Pressure on the corn markets came from both fund and commercial selling. Improved prospects for rain and snow in the plains states and the Midwest this week will help to reduce moisture deficits in the drought-stricken areas. Informa will release their estimate on corn acres for the coming year on Wednesday morning. On the previous report, corn acres were put at 97.7 million acres. The soybean market closed unchanged on Monday. Soybean export inspections came out at 37.0 million bushels which was a little lower than expectations of between 42 to 48. USDA announced the sale of 151,000 bushels of soybeans yesterday to unknown destinations. The Argentina 6 to 10 day forecasts calls for normal to above normal rainfall and Brazil's weather looks favorable for crop development and growth. Informa will release their latest soybean acres on Wednesday. On the last report, Informa estimated soybean acres at 80.1 million. Corn is currently trading 8 cents lower, beans are down 25 cents and wheat is down 5 cents. Look for a lower grain trade today.
12-17-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING STEADY TO HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 10 1/2 cents higher on Friday on stronger outside markets and on strong support from the bean and meal markets. The soybean crush report came out at 157.3 which was in line with expectations of 157.4 million bushels. The corn market gained support from ideas that South Korea was in the market for corn. Commercial buying in corn was also noted on Friday. Argentina is now estimated to be 61% planted on corn which is still 10 points behind last year's pace. There was continued talk in the trade on Friday that China will be taking no more corn from Argentina until the GMO issue can be straightened out. The soybean market closed 19 1/2 cents higher on Friday on strong soybean crush numbers and on ideas that more export demand may be seen in the near future. Soybean export sales this past month averaged 30. 5 million bushels which is 6 better than last year and almost 2 greater than the 5 year average. Argentina recieved heavier than expected rains of 1 to 1 1/2 inches over the weekend with more heavy rain expected this week which will complicate further plantings. Corn is currently trading a penny lower, beans are up 10 cents and wheat is up 2 cents. Look for a mixed trade in the grain markets today.
12-13-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN IS LOWER AND BEANS AND WHEAT ARE TRADING HIGHER.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 1/2 cents lower on Wednesday as funds sold more than 7000 contracts on the day. Corn has dropped a dime since last Friday. Sluggish export demand along with little new bullish news has kept prices on the defensive. Ethanol production is down almost 100,000 gallons per day from last year and ethanol stocks continue to build despite imports being down drastically. Corn export sales need to average 17 million bushels per week to reach the expected target of 1.15 billion bushels this year. Corn export sales announced this morning came in at 10.7 million bushels which is still below the weekly totals needed to reach expectations. The soybean market closed up 1 1/2 cents on Wednesday and had the best showing of all of the commodities yesterday. NOPA will be out with the latest crush numbers this week which are expected to be huge. The Supply-Demand report on Tuesday showed 10 million bushels less of soybean stocks than in the November report. Soybean export sales continue at a brisk pace with them exceeding expectations this week coming in at 48.5 million bushels. The trade was looking for a number between 22 to 42. Corn is currently trading 1 1/2 cents lower, beans are up 8 cents and wheat is trading 4 cents higher. Look for a mixed trade in the grain markets today.
12-12-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER TODAY.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents lower yesterday following the USDA December Supply-Demand report. USDA left the corn carryout unchanged at 647 million bushels which was lower than expectations of 666. Corn traded 3 or 4 cents higher following the report but soon lost ground on higher than expected wheat numbers. USDA raised the wheat carryout by 50 million bushels on poor export expectations which drove corn and bean prices lower on the day. Good rains of an inch or more were reported in Southern Brazil yesterday with more on the way. Drying weather in Argentina will continue until later in the week. The soybean market closed 3 cents lower on Tuesday as USDA lowered the soybean carryout by 10 million bushels from the November estimates. Soybean crush was raised by 10 million bushels on higher meal and oil exports. Good weather in South America also weighed on prices yesterday. USDA announced the sale of 115,000 mt of soybeans to China. The world soybean carryover came in pretty much unchanged on yesterday's report at 59.9 mmt. Brazil's production estimate was unchanged at 81 MMT and Argentina came in at 55 MMT. Corn is currently trading down a penny, beans are 8 cents lower and wheat is down 1/4 cent. Look for a mixed trade in the markets today.
12-11-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 15 cents lower on Friday on a stronger dollar and weak exports. The corn export report showed that only 2 MMT of corn was reported for export last week. Several cancellations were announced that lowered the export totals for the week. The Mississippi River is expected to stay open throughout this month as dredging and blasting around the St. Louis area continues. Argentina should see some drying weather this week and planting will likely resume. Yields, however, will likely be impacted because of adverse conditions and timing. USDA will release their carryout numbers on Tuesday with average guesses for corn coming in at 663 million bushels. The soybean market closed 19 cents lower on Friday on ideas that Argentina would dry out this week and allow planting to resume. USDA announced a sale of 115,000 tons of soybeans to China but did not have much impact on the market. Later this week the soybean crush report will be released which is expected to be record large. On Tuesday, USDA will release their latest Supply-Demand expectations. The trade is expecting a lower bean stocks number than last month by 5 million bushels, projecting the number to come in at 135. Currently corn is tading 6 cents lower, beans are down 4 1/2 cents and wheat is trading 5 1/2 cents lower. Look for the markets to be on the defensive today.
12-7-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER TODAY.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 cents lower on Thursday as export sales came in at only 2 million bushels. The trade was looking for a number between 14 to 22. Cancellations from unknown were responsible for the smaller number. Planting progress in South America continues to lag behind the normal pace with Argentina still only 55% complete with their corn planting. On Tuesday, USDA will estimate ending stocks. They are looking for a number near 666 million bushels for corn. The Argentine corn crop is estimated at 26 mt and Brazil is expected to come in at 69.9. The soybean market closed 12 cents higher on Thursday on strong export sales numbers for both soybeans and bean meal. Soybean exports came in at 41.9 million bushels with the trade only expecting between 18 to 26 million bushels. Meal exports came in at 464 mt with the trade only looking for 150 to 300. China was the leading buyer of soybeans followed by Spain and Germany. On Tuesday USDA will estimate soybean ending stocks with the trade looking for a number near 135 million bushels. The Argentine soybean crop is expected to come in around 54.9 mt with Brazil projected at 80.8 mt. Currently corn is trading down 4 cents, beans are 11 cents lower and wheat is down a penny. Look for the markets to be on the defensive today with a stronger dollar and weaker outside markets.
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING STEADY TO LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents higher on Monday as funds were buyers of nearly 4000 contracts of corn on the day. A weak dollar helped to support prices early in the day. Corn export inpections came in below expectations at 9.6 million bushels. Last week 16.1 million bushels were exported. Japan was the leading buyer of corn this past week followed by China. Private estimates continue to reduce the Brazilian corn crop size. Latest estimates put their corn crop at 70 MMT which is a reduction of 1 MMT from earlier estimates. The next report will be a Supply-Demand report which will be released on Tuesday December 11th. The soybean market closed 15 cents higher yesterday leading grain prices higher. Heavy rains in Argentina over the weekend and forecasts calling for a continuation of the same through this week led the charge higher. US soybean exports for the 1st quarter of the year are up by 175 million bushels from year ago numbers. Soybean exports this week came in at 51.1 million bushels which was on the low end of expectationsof estimates betwwen 52 to 57. Corn is currently trading unchanged, beans are down 4 cents and wheat is currently up two cents. Look for a mixed trade this morning in the grain markets.
12-3-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE BOTH LOWER THIS MORNING AND BEANS ARE TRADING HIGHER.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed unchanged yesterday in a day of fairly quiet trade. The weather in Argentina continues to slow plantings there as heavy rains over the past couple of weeks have allowed farmers to plant only 59% of their corn crop. Some are suggesting that up to 5% of the Argentine corn crop would not get planted this year combined with yield reductions of 5 to 10% could result in a reduction of the corn crop by 4 to 5 MMT. A new report out yesterday suggests that 30% of Japan's corn imports could come from Brazil this year compared with only 6% last year. Currently US corn is higher priced than corn coming out of South America and the Black Sea area. The soybean market closed 3 cents lower on Wednesday as a sale of 290,000 metric tons of soybeans was announced to China. Soybean exports are currently up 36% from last year. Crush margins remain good here in the US as well as in China. Soybean meal sales are also at record highs so the demand for soybeans and soy products remain very strong. South American weather has more rain in the forecast for Argentina over the next few days with 1 to 2 inches possible. Brazil is expected to remain dry until the end of next week when 1 inch of rain will be possible. Currently corn is trading 3 1/2 cents lower, beans are up 7 cents and wheat is down 3 cents. Look for a mixed trade in the grain markets today.
11-28-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 13 cents higher yesterday on fund buying. Buying was driven mainly by weather concerns in the US and South America. Heavy rains in Argentina have slowed planting progress while dry conditions continue in central and southern Brazil. Some traders have now lowered the Brazilian corn crop by 1 MMT due to dry conditions in the south. Dry weather in the US Plains States also have traders worried about wheat conditions in that region and no rain is forecast in that area over the next two weeks. There is some talk that irrigation restrictions may be forthcoming if the drought continues into 2013. Corn export demand continues to remain fairly sluggish with expectations of 18 to 30 million bushels on Thursday's report. The soybean market closed 24 1/2 cents higher on Tuesday on strong commercial buying spurred on by adverse weather conditions in South America. Decent soybean crush margins in China are helping to fuel the demand for more US soybeans. Cash crush margins in the US also remain very profitable and processors continue to try to push bids to originate grain. The river conditions continue to deteriorate as decreased water levels grow worse. It is estimated that by Mid-December water levels could drop enough to reduce barge draft levels to 8 foot or less due to problem areas in the St Louis to Cairo region. Corn is currently trading 4 cents lower, beans are down 7 cents and wheat is 5 cents lower.
11-27-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN,BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents higher on Monday in the first full day of trade following the Thanksgiving Day Holiday. Corn export inpections remain slugggish coming in at 15.9 million bushels against expectations of 20 to 24. The shut down of the water flow from the Missouri River ino the Mississippi River is impacting barge traffic. Some barge carriers are not selling anymore Illinois River barge freight due to the worsening river conditions between St Louis and Cairo. The latest 6 to 10 day forecast is calling for above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall for much of the central US.Some in the trade feel that up to 35% of the World's grain growing areas are currently in drought-like conditions. The soybean market closed 6 cents higher yesterday as funds bought 2000 soybean contracts on the day and now hold a long position of 126,000 soybean contracts. Soybean export inpections came in at a disappointing 45.5 million bushels which was below expectations of 60 to 70. Argentina is expected to continue in an above normal rainfall pattern which will slow down planting efforts. Brazil will likely see normal rain in the north but below normal rain in the already dry central and southern regions. This could have some long range impacts on grain prices. Currently corn is trading 2 cents higher, beans are up 10 cents and wheat is up 6 cents. Look for the markets to trade higher this morning on weather concerns both in the US and South America.
11-21-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents higher yesterday as funds bought nearly 8000 corn contracts on the day. The grain trade will have a shortened trading week with the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday. The grain markets will close today at 2 o'clock and not reopen until 9:30 am on Friday morning and then close Friday at noon. The trade will then reopen on Sunday night. On Friday the December option will expire which can lead to volatile trade since many traders will be off on vacation. Other than that, there is little fresh news in the marketplace to offer any new support. Water levels on the Mississippi river still remain a big concern which could affect US exports down the road. The latest 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest calls for above normal temperatures with below normal rainfall. The soybean market closed 18 cents higher on Tuesday as some in the trade reduced the Argentina soybean production estimates downward by 2 MMT and lowered the Brazilian soybean crop by 1 MMT. Brazil is now reported to be 66% planted on soybeans which is pretty much in line with the normal planting pace. The forecast for Argentina over the next 6 to 10 days suggest normal temperatures with above normal rainfall. Brazil is expected to see normal rainfall and normal temperatures over the next 6 to 10 days. Currently corn is trading 2 cents higher, beans are up 6 cents and wheat is a penny higher.
11-20-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE TRADING A LITTLE LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 12 cents higher on Monday with help from the stronger outside markets and a weaker dollar. Corn export inpections came in above expectations at 14.3 million bushels. The trade was looking for the numbers to fall between 10 to 14. Increased optimism over lawmakers seeming more willing to make a deal on the budget deficit helped to drive the grain markets higher. Tensions in the Middle-East drove crude oil sharply higher on Monday. Water levels on the river system continue to dwindle but the Coast Guard doesn't believe the river system will have to close. They do however expect draft restrictions on barges to tighten. The soybean market closed 11 1/2 cents higher yesterday as the funds bought nearly 4000 contracts of beans on the day. Soybean export inspections once again came in better than expectations at 62 million bushels which was way above the 21 million bushels per week needed to meet USDA's expectations for the year. USDA also announced yesterday a sale of 20,000 tons of soybean oil to unknown destinations. China also announced that they will be suspending any further sales from their state held reserves, at least for the time being. Corn is currently trading 3 cents lower, beans are down 11 cents and wheat is down a penny. Look for the markets to be choppy ahead of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday.
11-16-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents lower on Thursday on weak economic data and lower outside markets. Continued concerns over low water levels on area rivers has the barge freight rates soaring. Illinois River freight is up to 600% of tariff. The Army Corps of Engineers next week is planning to slow down the water dicharge into the Missouri River in South Dakota. This will likely affect draft restrictions on barges in the St. Louis area the first week of December. In other news, ethanol output is down 3000 barrels per day which is 10% below year ago levels. The EPA is expected to rule on the ethanol mandate waiver in the near future. The soybean market closed 17 cents lower yesterday in a day of continued liquidation. South American weather has turned favorable for continued planting and good early plant development. Argentina which has been too wet is expected to remain dry over the next 4 to 5 days and average rainfall amounts are expected over dry areas of Brazil during next week. Water levels on the river system continue to deteriorate and many companies are trying to get as many beans loaded on barges as possible before the problem gets any worse. Corn is currently trading 5 cents lower, beans are down 17 cents and wheat is a penny lower.
11-15-12
MORNING TRADE : EVEN ON CORN, HIGHER ON WHEAT AND LOWER ON BEANS THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents higher on Wednesday in a day of quiet trade. Corn export demand remains slow with only some small sales noted earlier this week to unknown destinations. Low water levels on the Mississippi River is causing barge freight to surge higher. Illinois River barge freight for December rose 90% as water levels continue to fall on area rivers. Livestock producers are also struggling with high feed costs and poultry and hog producers are still recording losses which are expected to continue into spring. The EPA is expected to rule on the ethanol mandate waiver in the very near future. The soybean market closed 11 cents higher on Wednesday as the latest soybean crush numbers came out much higher than expected. October crush numbers came in at 153.5 million bushels which was above the average trade estimate of 144.4. USDA also reported a soybean sale to China of 120,000 MT. Soybean demand remains strong with export inspections expected to stay in a range of 60 to 65 million bushels per week for the foreseable future. South America's weather is expected to be favorable for planting progress and early plant development. Corn is currently trading unchanged with beans 3 cents lower and wheat up 4 cents.
11-14-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 cents higher yesterday after trading lower earlier in the session. The funds sold nearly 5000 contracts of corn during the day weighing on prices but then near the close buying activity resurfaced. Commercial buying late in the session was responsible for the corn market closing near the highs of the session. The US is becoming more competitive in the world market now and may help out our export program down the road. Yesterday's corn export number was a little disappointing coming in at 9.5 million bushels. The trade was looking for a number between 13 to 17. The soybean market closed 3 cents higher yesterday after a couple of days of heavy liquidation following the USDA crop production report released last Friday. January soybean futures dropped below $14 for the first time since late June. USDA increased soybean production by 110 million bushels and added 10 million bushels to the carryout on last Friday's report. Soybean export numbers came in above expectations at 64 million bushels on Tuesday which says that demand for US soybeans remains strong. Improving Chinese soybean crush margins will likely spur additional demand in the near future. Corn is currently trading 2 cents higher, beans are up 16 cents and wheat is a penny higher this morning.
11-13-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND BEANS ARE BOTH TRADING HIGHER AND WHEAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 20 cents lower on Monday after being slightly higher early in the session. Corn was largely dragged lower by the weakness in the soybean market. A report out yesterday that China's corn crop this year is expected to produce a record 200 million tons also weighed on prices. This will likely hurt US corn exports as the Chinese imported a record 5.5 million tons of corn in 2011-12. Some of the increase in production in China is being attributed to new seed corn varieties being grown in China that are matching corn yields in the best production areas of the US. The new hybrids are doubling the average Chinese production of 5 tons per hectacre. Another negative in the marketplace yesterday was talk that Japan's 3rd quarter economic performance would equate to a 3.5% deline. The soybean market closed 46 cents lower yesterday in another day of strong liquidation following the negative USDA report issued last Friday. Global economic uncertainty also weighed on prices yesterday. South American weather looks more favorable this week with frequent rains expected for the drier areas of Northern Brazil and a drier outlook for the South. Dry weather will aid planting efforts in Argentina. Argentina is about 3 weeks behind in planting due to wet soils. Brazil on the other hand is a little ahead of average at 54% complete vs the 5 year average of 51%. Corn is currently trading 2 cents higher, beans are up 3 cents and wheat is now trading two cents lower. Look for a mixed trade today.
11-12-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 1/2 cents lower on Friday following the USDA crop production report which was released at 7:30 AM. The corn report was pretty much neutral as USDA revised corn production by a mere 19 million bushels from the October report putting corn production at 10.725 billion bushels. Corn yield was estimated up .3 bushels per acre to 122.3 and USDA left harvested acreage unchanged at 87.7 million acres. Ending stocks on corn rose from 619 million bushels in October to 647 on the November report. The Argentine and Brazilian corn production numbers showed no change from the October estimates. The soybean market closed down 45 cents on Friday after USDA increased soybean production to 2.971 billion bushels up from the October number of 2.860. The national yield increased by 1.5 BPA up to 39.3. Ending stocks for soybeans increased by 10 million bushels and are now estimated at 140 million bushels for 2012-13. During the trading session on Friday, Informa updated their acreage estimates for the coming year putting soybean acreage at 80.1 million acres vs last year's number of 77.2. Currently corn is trading 6 cents lower with beans down 28 cents and wheat a dime lower. Look for the markets to be on the defensive this morning. Happy Veteran's day to all and Thank you Veteran's for your service to our country.
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents higher on Thursday which was near the session highs. Corn export inspections came out a little better than expected yesterday at 16.8 million bushels. The trade was looking for a number between 8 to 16. Corn yields continue to get better as harvest moves north. Early yield data out of Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska are coming in better than expected. It seems more bushels are coming to elevators as farmers do not want to store grain in their own bins this year. On the USDA report released on Wednesday, corn production was put at 10.727 billion bushels with a yield of 122.8. Average guesses were at 10.403 with a yield of 120.6. The soybean market closed 2 cents higher on Thursday following the big run up after the USDA report on Wednesday. Some profit taking was noted during the session yesterday. On Wednesday USDA estimated the soybean crop at 2.634 billion bushels with a yield of 35.3 bpa. This was pretty much in line with trade expectations. Carryout levels continue to grow smaller as soybean ending stocks dropped to 115 million bushels for 2012-13. USDA also lowered Brazil's bean production by 1.1 MMT. Corn is currently trading 6 cents higher, beans are up 11 cents and wheat is 16 cents higher. Look for the markets to trade higher today.
9-11-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE TRADING HIGHER AND BEANS ARE LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 16 cents lower on Monday as funds sold nearly 8000 corn contracts on the day. Traders continue to liquidate positions as harvest pace picks up. US corn harvest is now at 15% complete vs 5% on average for this time of year. Corn export inspections came out at only 9.8 million bushels compared with expectations of between 15 to 20. High prices seem to be doing their job of rationing the demand. Yield reports continue to vary widely with expectations of lower yields and production to come out on Wednesday's USDA report. The average guess for corn production is 10.403 billion bushels with a yield of 120.6 bpa. The soybean market closed 18 cents lower on Monday in a day of continued liquidation. Soybean crop conditions actually improved by 2% yesterday afternoon to 32% good to excellent. The US soybean crop is now 4% harvested compared with the average pace of only 2%. Illinois was only reported at 1% complete with soybean harvest as of Sunday night. Soybean export inspections came in at 12.9 million bushels last week. USDA will release their latest crop production numbers on Wednesday with traders looking for the soybean crop to come in at 2.638 billion bushels with a yield of 35.5 bpa. Currently corn is trading 2 cents higher, beans are down 4 cents and wheat is up 1/2 cent. Look for the markets to trade mixed today.
9-10-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed a penny higher on Friday in a day of quiet trade. The US dollar was lower on a disappointing jobs report and wheat was stronger on world supply concerns. Informa estimated the corn crop at 10.31 billion bushels putting the national yield at 119.8 bpa. USDA will release their estimates on Wednesday. The average trade guess on corn comes in at 10.4 billion bushels of production with a yield of 120.6 bpa. USDA on the August report showed production at 10.779 with a yield of 123.4. Harvest pace will pick up this week with the weather expected to be near ideal in the Midwest. Traders are looking for corn harvest to be 15% complete vs 5% on average on this afternoon's report. The soybean market closed 10 1/2 cents lower on Friday on weak export sales of just over 19 million bushels. Informa released their numbers on Friday putting the soybean crop at 2.639 billion bushels with a yield of 35.4 bpa. On USDA's August report, the soybean crop was estimated at 2.692 billion bushels with the yield at 35.4 bpa. Midwest weather looks dry until Thursday when up to 1 inch of rain could fall in our area. Corn is currently trading a penny lower, beans are down 4 cents and wheat is down a penny.
9-7-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 1/2 cents higher yesterday as strength in the stock market and financial markets gave grains a boost. The European Union was working on a plan to reduce the debt of several countries through a bond buying program.Also helping corn prices yesterday was an announcement of a corn sale by the USDA of 180,000 metric tons to an unkown destination. USDA wiil release their latest crop numbers on Wednesday September 12th. After some showers move through the Midwest today, cooler and drier weather is expected for the weekend and most of next week. The soybean market closed down 1/2 cent on Thursday as some in the trade felt that the recent rains may help the soybean crop in some areas. USDA will update their numbers on Wednesday and Informa will be out with their predictions today. Some of the soybean crop estimates already released fall between 2.67 and 2.74 billion bushels with yields falling around 36 to 37 bpa. China has been selling soybeans out of their reserves and will likely continue to do that again next week. There are rumors that China may cancel up to 5 cargoes of soybeans from the US. The corn market is currently trading 4 cents lower, beans are down 15 cents and wheat is down 3 cents. Look for the markets to be on the defensive today.
9-6-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE TRADING HIGHER AND BEANS ARE LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 17 cents lower on Wednesday as the markets continued in liquidation mode. Weak export demand, more livestock liquidation and poor ethanol margins are all converging on the markets. Some more private estimates were released yesterday ahead of the crop production report on Wednesday. The Linn Group put corn production at 9.954 billion bushels with a yield of 119.9 bpa. FC Stone also released their estimates putting the corn crop at 10.67 billion bushels with a yield of 121.4. USDA will release their numbers on Wednesday, September 12th at 7:30 in the morning. The soybean market closed 21 cents lower yesterday as more light rains moved across the northern corn belt. Funds continued to reduce long positions yesterday ahead of a harvest that is quickly approaching. Private crop estimates continue to come in and yields seem to be falling in the 34 to 37 bpa range. THe Chinese economy continues to show signs of weakness and puts into question how strong their appetite for soybeans will be in the future. Recent soybean price increases have made South American beans competitive again in the world market especially for nearby shipment. Corn is currently trading 4 cents higher, beans are down 4 cents and wheat is up 6 cents. Look for a mixed trade in the markets today.
9-5-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents higher on Tuesday after a strong opening. Funds bought an estimated 7000 contracts of corn on the day. Some profit taking was noted later in the session on Tuesday afternoon. Corn export inspections came out at a disappointing 6.4 million bushels with the trade expecting a number between 12 to 15. The crop progress report put the nation's corn harvest at 10% complete vs only 3% on average. Illinois was just above the national average at 12% complete. Rains this week across the Midwest will slow harvest progress for a couple of days. USDA will release their September crop report next Wednesday. Informa will be out with their numbers on Friday. The soybean market closed 12 cents higher yesterday after reaching a new record high of $17.89 on the November futures market on Tuesday morning. Soybean export inspections came out at a repectable 15.5 million bushels. The Chinese continue to be strong buyers of US soybeans. Funds bought an estimated 4000 contracts of soybeans on the day. The crop condition report released yesterday afternoon remained unchanged at 30% good to excellent. Good rains are moving across parts of Eastern Iowa, Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois this morning. Corn is currently trading 3 cents lower, beans are down 4 cents and wheat is 5 cents lower. Look for the markets to trade a little lower this morning.
MORNING TRADE : CORN IS TRADING HIGHER AND BEANS AND WHEAT ARE BOTH LOWER.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 21 cents higher on Wednesday as wheat led the trade higher due to talk of a Russian export ban on wheat. Russian wheat production this year is expected to come in below last year which will help the US export market. The trade was also worried that Hurricane Isaac could bring heavy rain and winds into the Delta and corn belt and produce more damage to an already poor crop. Heavy rains this late in the season will only delay harvest and hurt stalk quality. On the plus side, heavy rain will improve barge navigation on the Mississippi River and increase soil moisture for next year. The soybean market closed 31 cents higher yesterday on crop concerns due to Isaac's slow movement across the Delta which could cause flooding problems. Soybean export demand remains strong as the Chinese crush capacity continues to increase. Higher prices have not slowed demand much as of yet and carryout levels continue to grow ever tighter. Early soybean yield reports have been disappointing. The trade will soon focus their attention on the September 12th crop report. Currently corn is trading 2 cents higher, beans are down a penny and wheat is down a penny. Look for a mixed trade in the grain markets today.
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 8 cents on Monday on some light profit taking. Harvest activity continues in the south with yields still somewhat disappointing. Test weights have also been on the low side. The nation's corn crop is now reported at 6% harvested vs 2% on average. The weekly corn crop rating dropped 1% in the good to excellent category which is now down to 22% vs last year at 54%. The trade was looking for the numbers to stay the same. Weekly export inspections came in below expectations at 14.5 million bushels. Remnants of Hurricane Isaac are expected to move north along the Mississippi River for much of the week bringing some heavy rainfall to areas that have been suffering from extreme drought. The soybean market closed down 13 cents yesterday as some much needed rains fell across the central corn belt over the weekend. Informa put their estimate of the soybean crop at 2.838 billion bushels which was higher than the pro Farmer estimate of 2.6. Weekly soybean export inspections came out at a respectable 17.4 million bushels. Yesterday's crop condition report showed a 1% decrease in the good to excellent category for soybeans dropping to 30% from 31. Illinois dropped 3% and Indiana was down 4%. Corn is currently trading down 3 cents, beans are down 13 cents and wheat is trading 5 cents lower. Light profit taking continues to be the theme in the grain markets again today.
8-27-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN AND WHEAT ARE BOTH TRADING LOWER AND BEANS ARE HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 1/2 cents lower on Friday as some light profit taking was noted ahead of the weekend. The Pro Farmer Tour released their final numbers on Friday afternoon putting the nation's corn crop at 10.478 billion bushels with the yield at 120.25 bpa. This was slightly below USDA's August numbers of 10.779 and 123.4. Iowa's corn yield ended up being 139 vs the USDA at 141 and Minnesota came in at 152 vs the USDA number of 155. Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to continue to work north and make landfall in the gulf states. Precipitation for the storm is expected to be heavy in the southern states and will slow down harvest activity. The soybean market closed 16 cents higher on Friday on talk of Chinese soybean purchases. It was reported that China bought up to 1 MMT of US soybeans. This helped to support soybean prices on Friday. The Pro Farmer Tour concluded last week projecting the soybean crop at 2.6 billion bushels with a yield of 34.8 bpa. USDA in August put the soybean crop at 2.692 with a yield of 36.1. The Midwest saw some decent rains over the weekend with amounts ranging from a couple of tenths up to several inches. Bean harvest will likely be interrupted in the South due to Hurricane Isaac which is expected to make landfall near New Orleans. Currently corn is trading 3 cents lower, beans are up 8 cents and wheat is down 3 cents. Look for a mixed trade in the markets today.
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 21 cents lower on Thursday as funds sold nearly 17,000 contracts of corn. Crop tours reporting better than expected yields in Illinois and Indiana also weighed on futures prices. Pro Farmer put the Illinois corn yield at 121.6 bpa which was 5 1/2 bpa higher than USDA's August estimate of 116. Indiana yields were pegged at 113 bpa which was higher than USDA's estimate of only 100. Lower than expected manufacturing data out of China along with increasing chances of rain across the Plains and Midwest over the weekend kept the grain markets on the defensive. The soybean market closed down 21 cents yesterday on increased rain chances for the weekend which could still improve soybean yields in the Northern Midwest. Fears that the slowing Chinese economy would reduce their demand for soybean products also weighed on bean prices. The Pro Farmer Tour has revealed lower soybean pod counts in every state on the tour. Reuters has estimated the soybean crop at 2.71 billion bushels with a yield of 36.6 bpa which was pretty much in line with USDA's August number of 2.69 and 36.1. The corn market is currently trading 5 cents higher, beans are up 15 cents and wheat is now 8 cents higher. Look for the markets to trade a little higher today.
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 17 cents on Monday on fund selling. Forecasts of cooler temperatures and increasing chances of rain added to the negative sentiment. The crop condition report was released yesterday afternoon after the market closed. The corn condition was left pretty much unchanged from last week at 23% good to excellent. The only noted change was the poor to very poor rating which dropped by 1% to 50%. The nation's corn crop is now 42% in the dent stage vs 16% average and is now rated at 10% mature vs 3% on average. The soybean market closed 43 cents lower on Monday as rains were construed as being beneficial to the soybean crop. Many in the trade felt that recent rains would help to fill pods and increase bean size. Soybean exports came in a little higher than expected on Monday at 15.7 million bushels compared to estimates of 13 to 15. Many in the trade think that South America will show a big increase in soybean plantings for this fall. USDA is currently forecasting a 10% increase in Brazil's acreage and a 13% increase in Argentina's soybean acreage. The soybean condition report showed an increase in the good to excellent rating of 1%. This morning corn is trading 6 cents higher, beans are up 9 cents and wheat is 7 cents higher. Look for the markets to trade a little higher this morning.
8-13-12
MORNING TRADE : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRASDING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 18 cents lower on Friday following the USDA crop report. USDA put corn production at 10.779 billion bushels with a yield of 123.4 bushels per acre. The market quickly rose by 25 cents following the report but then fell back to near unchanged as the trade tried to analyze the numbers. USDA, however, cut exports by 300 million bushels, lowered feed demand by 725 and cut ethanol usage by 400 million bushels. This put corn ending stocks for 2011-12 at 1.021 billion bushels which was nearly 100 million bushels higher than trade expectations. Next year's carryout was put at 650 million bushels. USDA also put the Chinese corn production at 200 MMT and raised the Brazilian corn crop expectation by 3.2 MMT. Both of these lowered USDA's export projections. The soybean market closed 12 cents higher on Friday as USDA lowered soybean production by 358 million bushels down to a total crop of 2.692 billion bushels. USDA put the soybean yield at 36.1 bushels per acre which was down almost 5 bpa from the July estimates. USDA lowered the 2011-12 carryout by 25 million bushels down to 145. USDA lowered the 2012-13 soybean demand by 260 million bushels due to the higher prices for beans this year. The recent rain and cooler weather across the Midwest should help the beans to develop and fill in pods in some areas. The corn market is currently trading 20 cents lower, beans are down 32 cents and wheat is 20 cents lower. Look for the markets to trade lower today
MORNING TRADE: CORN AND WHEAT ARE TRADING LOWER AND BEANS ARE TRADING HIGHER.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents lower on Tuesday as some weather models increased rain chances across the grain belt over the next couple of days with much cooler temperatures. Corn condition scores dropped another point on the good to excellent to 23% and the poor to very poor increased by 2 points to a total of 50%. Corn harvest is progressing rapidly across the country with 211 million bushels already harvested in the US. The five year average is 68 million. Corn prices have reached a level now that is impacting demand. Some pork producers have been seen liquidating their herds and some ethanol plants are closing down. The soybean market closed 18 1/2 cents lower as forecasts for rain over the next couple of days could still help some of the soybean crop. On Friday USDA will release their latest crop report. The average estimate for the soybean crop is 2.786 billion bushels with a yield of 37.2 bushels per acre. Last year the soybean yield came in at 41.5. This year's carryout is estimated at 157 million bushels and for next year they are looking at 115 million bushels of carryout. The soybean crop rating remained unchanged on the good to excellent at 29%. The trade was looking for this to drop slightly on Monday afternoon's report. Corn is currently trading 3 cents lower, beans are up 4 cents and wheat is trading 12 cents lower. Look for a mixed trade today.
8-7-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL CALLED LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 16 cents higher on Friday as funds renewed their buying interest to the tune of 11,000 contracts of corn. New crop surveys continue to come out about everyday with Doane's putting corn production at 10.792 billion bushels with a yield of 123.1 BPA. FC Stone put corn production at 11.043 billion bushels with a yield of 124.3. There has been some reports of early harvest progress in southern and central Illinois with yields varying all over the place. One central Illinois crop tour put the yield estimate at 118.7 bpa. On Friday USDA announced a 1.5 mmt sale of corn to Mexico which helped to give a huge boost to demand. The soybean market closed 12 cents higher on Friday but weak demand is limiting the upside. Informa released their latest crop estimates putting soybean yields at 37.2 bpa with a soybean crop of 2.791 billion bushels. FC Stone estimated the soybean crop at 2.730 billion bushels with a yield of 36.2 bpa. Rain chances have improved for the week along with some cooler temperatures on tap. Crop condition scores will be released this afternoon with many in the trade expecting a drop of 2 to 3 % in the ratings. Currently corn is trading down 10 cents, beans are 40 cents lower and wheat is down 4 cents. Look for the markets to be lower today on better than expected rains over the weekend and a trend toward cooler temperatures.
8-6-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good morning,
Corn futures closed 6 1/2 cents lower on Thursday as demand for corn at current price levels is starting to dwindle. On yesterday's export sales report only 7 million bushels of old crop sales were reported and less than 1 million was reported for new crop. Cancellations of 1.4 million bushels for new crop were also noted on yesterday's report. Demand is not the only thing dwindling as corn crop prospects also continue to grow smaller. Yield estimates on corn continue to decline with some in the trade now thinking that the national corn yield will come in below 120 bpa. Dry conditions in Europe has caused USDA to lower their estimate for Europe's grain crop by 7 MMT. Weather conditions in the US continue to show little relief for the drought over the next couple of weeks. The soybean market closed 12 1/2 cents lower on the prospects of increased moisture in parts of the northern Delta and southern corn belt over the weekend. The feeling in the trade is that rains could still help the soybean crop in these areas. Export sales for soybeans came in a little better than expected at 9 million bushels. Soybean yield estimates continue to work lower as some analysts now believe national yields may fall below 37 bpa. The weather over the next couple of weeks will be instrumental in moving that number up or down. Corn is currently trading 6 cents higher, beans are up 16 cents and wheat is 19 cents higher.
8-2-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 6 cents yesterday after being much lower earlier in the session. Funds were liquidating positions as the European weather model added more rain to their forecast over the next 7 days. Other weather models disagree with this scenario. Several livestock companies have petitioned the EPA to wave the ethanol mandate. So far the response from the Renewable Fuels Association has been that there will be no revision to the mandate. In the past couple of days there have been some reports of corn being harvested just south of Springfield, Illinois. Yield reports range from 43 to 130 bushels per acre. Several crop tours are being conducted across the nation at the current time. Big variations in yields continue to be the theme with a trend toward a falling national yield. The soybean market closed 39 cents lower yesterday in the nearby month and 12 cents lower in the new crop. Informa released their crop estimates a couple of days ago putting soybean production at 2.9 billion bushels with a national yield of 38.5 bpa. Last night FC Stone released their soybean numbers putting the crop at 2.7 billion bushels with a yield of 36.2 bpa. Water levels on the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers continue to decline and barge freight is going up as draft levels on the barges are reduced. The corn market is currently trading down 10 cents, beans are down 20 cents and wheat is down 13 cents.
OPENING CALLS : CORN AND WHEAT ARE LOWER THIS MORNING WITH BEANS TRADING HIGHER.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 21 cents higher on Monday as buying from both the commercial and non-commercial sides was present in the marketplace. The latest forecasts continued to show above normal temperatures with few chances of rain over the next 7 to 10 days. Traders were looking for another week of declining crop conditions. Monday afternoon's corn condition report showed a decline in the good to excellent category by 2 points and an increase in the poor to very poor by 3 points. Some in the trade now believe the national corn crop will drop below 11 billion bushels. Corn demand is starting to drop off in the feed, ethanol and export arena. The soybean market closed 41 cents higher on Monday on continued crop concerns. Weekend rains were less than expected in most areas. Weekly export inspections came in at a respectful 15.5 million bushels. US soybean export demand has remained strong mainly because of production shortfalls in South America this year. The soybean condition report released Monday afternoon showed another decline of 2% in the good to excellent category which was replaced by an increase in the poor to very poor by a like amount. The corn market is currently trading 5 cents lower, beans are up a penny and wheat is down 10 cents. Look for the markets to trade mixed this morning.
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher yesterday after approaching the all time high of 7.99 3/4. September corn futures reached 7.96 1/2 only 3 1/4 cents off of the record high. The early rally was a result of the huge drop in the crop condition report issued on Monday afternoon. Corn condition ratings dropped another 9 points leaving only 31% of the nations corn crop in good to excellent condition. The selloff later in the session was attributed to rumors that the Chinese were once again cancelling contracts. Yield forecasts, however, continue to decline as the weather picture continues to worsen. Most of the Corn Belt and Delta regions are expected to be hot and dry over the next 7 to 10 days. Many in the trade now believe the national corn yield will drop below 140 BPA. The soybean market closed 5 cents higher yesterday after posting a 30 cent trading range. USDA lowered soybean conditions by another 6 points on Monday putting the national soybean crop at 34% good to excellent. Sixteen percent of the soybean crop is now setting pods with much of the country experiencing extremely hot temperatures and dry conditions. Yield estimates continue to fall and some in the trade now believe bean yields will drop below 40 BPA. Some spotty rain showers are expected across the northern tier of the corn belt today but rain totals are not expected to be significant enough to alleviate the drought. Currently corn is trading 4 cents lower, beans are down 3 cents and wheat is down a dime. Look for the markets to trade a little lower today on some light profit taking.
7-17-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 36 cents higher on Monday as corn futures move closer to the all time high of $7.99 3/4. Weather forecasts continue to call for above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall across the Midwest over the next 10 days. Some farmers have resorted to chopping corn for silage. Crop conditions continue to grow worse. Only 31 % of the nations corn crop is now rated good to excellent which is a drop of 9% from last week. The Illinois corn crop is only rated at 11% good to excellent along with Indiana at 8%, Missouri at 7% and Ohio at 19%. The nations corn crop is now rated at 38% poor to very poor. Some in the trade now think that the national corn yield will come in below 140 BPA. The soybean market closed 39 cents higher on Monday as weather concerns took center stage. The USDA soybean crop condition report showed a decline of 6% in the good to excellent rating from last week. The trade was looking for a drop of 3 to 5%. The weather continues to take its toal on the crop and further deterioration is expected over the next 10 days. Some in the trade now feel that the national yield will drop below the current 40.5 BPA estimate especially if weather patterns continue. Corn is currently trading 7 cents higher, beans are up a penny and wheat is up 4 cents. Look for the markets to trade higher today on continued weather concerns.
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 27 cents higher on Thursday as traders continued to worry about crop deterioration in those areas that have received little to no rain over the past couple of months. Some in the trade now believe that the national corn yield may drop below 140 BPA. Current weather forecasts continue to call for below average rainfall across the Midwest over the next 10 days along with intense heat across the middle of the country. Ag Secretary Vilsack said yesterday that there is not expected to be any chane in the ethanol blend rates this year. This past week the funds have continued to add to their long positions. The soybean market closed only a penny higher yesterday as traders realize that rains could still vastly improve the soybean crop. Some weather forecasters have put some spotty rain chances in the forecast for Iowa and Illinois over the weekend. Soybean export sales came in above expectations at 28 million bushels yesterday. China was the featured buyer. China did sell 390,000 MT of soybeans from their state reserves yesterday. Currently the corn market is trading 13 cents higher, beans are trading 22 cents higher and wheat is up 15 cents Look for the markets to trend higher this morning as all eyes remain fixed on the latest weather forecasts.
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 14 1/2 cents lower on Wednesday after a sharply higher opening following the USDA supply-demand report. USDA lowered the corn yield by 20 BPA dropping it to 146 from the previous 166. USDA lowered the carryout for next year by almost 700 million bushels down to 1.183 billion bushels. On the negative side, however, USDA lowered demand by over 1 billion bushels. With corn now trading over $7.00 per bushel, livestock margins are thin and ethanol production is dropping. Ethanol production is now at the lowest level in two years. Plants have been closing in Iowa and Minnesota as ethanol margins turn negative with the rising corn prices. The soybean market closed 19 cents lower yesterday after opening sharply higher. USDA lowered the soybean yield down to 40.5 BPA vs 43.9 projected in June. USDA lowered both the old crop and new crop carryout by 5 and 10 million bushels respectively. USDA lowered soybean production by 155 million bushels for the coming year to a total production of 3.050 billion bushels. On the negative side, export projections for next year were lowered by 115 million bushels and soybean crush was down by 35. The selloff later in the session was attributed to profit taking by the funds. Corn is currently trading 12 cents higher, beans are up 5 cents and wheat is 9 cents higher. Look for higher prices this morning on a drier Midwest weather forecast.
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER TODAY.
Good Morning,
Corn futures dropped off sharply yesterday with old crop closing down 25 cents and new crop off 16 1/2. Traders sold 17,000 corn contracts on the day. Pressure came from some nice rains in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin and from negative news about the about the Chinese economy and Spain's debt problems. Crop conditions in the western corn belt continue to improve while conditions in the eastern corn belt continue to decline.
The latest weather forecasts for the next 30 days call for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for much of the Midwest. Next Friday USDA will release their quarterly stocks and acreage report. The soybean market closed 8 cents lower on old crop and 24 cents lower on new crop on Thursday. Funds sold 7000 contracts of soybeans on the day. Outside markets were weaker and the dollar was stronger. A private firm yesterday lowered their soybean yield estimate to 42.4 BPA vs USDA's last estimate of 43.6. Yesterday's rain amounts and coverage were disappointing for the eastern corn belt. Soybean supplies still remain very tight and should help to keep a floor under soybean prices.Corn is currently trading 13 cents higher, beans are up 15 cents and wheat is 13 cents higher. Look for the markets to trade higher today on forecasts for hot and dry weather to continue to stress the crops.
OPENING CALLS : CORN AND WHEAT ARE TRADING LOWER AND BEANS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 13 cents higher on old crop and 30 cents higher on new crop yesterday as traders became alarmed over weather concerns and yield reductions. Some now believe that corn yields could be trimmed and the national yield will likely fall below 160 BPA. Hot and dry weather across the central and southern Midwest will likely continue to reduce crop ratings again next week. Forecasts continue to call for warm and dry conditions to persist in the Midwest over the next 10 days. The best chance of rain exists across Minnesota, Nebraska, and Western Iowa with 1/2 to 1 inch likely. Very little rain is forecast for areas south and east of this. The soybean market closed 50 cents higher yesterday as funds bought soybean futures on Tuesday. Weather concerns remain the primary issue as soybean crop conditions are the lowest in the past 5 years for this period of time. The soybean rating this past week dropped 4 points down to 56% good to excellent. Indiana and Ohio had the biggest drop at 13 and 14% and Wisconsin was down 5 points and Illinois was down 3. Soybean exports continue at a brisk pace as USDA announced the sale of 140,000 MMT of old crop beans to unknown yesterday. The US remains competitive with South America on soybeans. The trade is now thinking that as many as 750,000 acres of double-crop beans may not get planted due to dry conditions. Currently corn is trading 3 cents lower, beans are unchanged and wheat is down 7 cents. Look for a mixed trade in the markets today on hedge pressure in the corn futures market.
6-15-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Nearby corn futures closed down 22 cents on Friday and new crop closed 10 cents lower as the Western Corn Belt received some much needed rain. Nebraska got between 2 to 5 inches with excellent coverage and Minnesota and parts of Iowa received 1 to 2 inches on Friday. Northern Illinois received around 1/2 inch of rain on Saturday and Sunday with slightly heavier amounts to the south into Central Illinois. Informa released their latest acreage numbers and put corn planting at 96.8 million acres which was higher than USDA's last estimate at 95.9. There also was a rumor circulating in the trade on Friday that Brazilian corn was being imported into the southeast United States. This caused a sharp drop in the nearby river basis which fell between 5 to 10 cents. The soybean market closed 10 cents lower on Friday as talk of soybean cancellations to China circulatted in the trade. New crop futures were supported by reported sales to China of 262,000 tonnes of soybeans for the 2012-13 marketing year. Informa released their latest acreage numbers putting soybean acres at 75.9 which was slightly higher than their April numbers. Double-cropped soybean acreage was estimated at 6.5 million which was up 240,000 acres from the previous estimate. Corn is currently trading 3 cents higher, beans are up 8 cents and wheat is 9 cents higher. The Greek election outcome favored the Euro-Zone and has helped to push grain prices higher this morning.
6-15-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN AND WHEAT ARE TRADING LOWER AND BEANS ARE HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 cents higher yesterday on continued weather concerns and on commercial buying in the nearby month. Basis levels ratcheted higher yesterday as ethanol plants and livestock feeders tried to get some ownership. Farmer movement of corn has been very limited especially in areas suffering from a lack of moisture. Nearly 60 % of the Midwest is now seriously short of moisture and conditions could grow much worse if the latest forecasts hold up. The forecast for the eastern corn belt continues to call for above normal temperatures along with only limited rainfall over the next 7 to 10 days. Crop condition scores will likely drop further if the weather pattern continues. Weak export sales of only 6.7 million bushels was a marketing year low and took away some of the market support yesterday. The soybean market closed 22 cents lower on Thursday on continued fund liquidation. There was talk in the trade that a large fund needed to exit a long soybean position yesterday adding to the soybean selloff. Forecasts of rain in the Northwest across Nebraska and parts of Iowa and Minnesota limited any buying enthusiasm. On a positive note, soybean crush numbers came in above expectations at 138.3 and soybean export sales were strong at 36.9 million bushels. Corn is currently trading 2 cents lower, beans are up 7 cents and wheat is unchanged. Outside markets are stronger and the dollar weaker this morning. The latest weather forecasts will be watched closely for signs of any relief across the dry areas of the Midwest.
6-14-12
OPENING CALLS ; CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE TRADING HIGHER.
Good Morning,
Nearby corn futures closed 8 cents higher on Wednesday and new crop closed 12 cents lower. Commercial interest in seeking old crop supplies helped create a strong nearby market. New crop markets were once again lower yesterday as funds were reluctant to invest in commodities and as some forecasts added some rain to next weeks outlook. Amounts vary as do confidence levels in these latest forecasts. The western corn belt continues to receive rain but much of the eastern belt has missed them. Cool temperatures this past week have helped the crop but rain will be needed soon to keep condition ratings from dropping rapidly especially as warm temperatures return. The soybean market closed 27 cents lower yesterday as funds exited soybean positions. Forecasts calling for increased chances of rain for next week added to the sharp selloff. Timely rains are needed in the central and eastern belt where rains have been lacking over the past month. The soybean crush numbers will be releaed today and the trade is looking for a number near 135. Soybean crush margins have been good and meal demand has remained fairly strong. This should help keep a floor under prices especially if weather concerns continue. Corn is currently trading 7 cents higher, beans are up 5 cents and wheat is 9 cents higher.
6-13-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 8 cents on Tuesday as the USDA supply-demand report left unchanged the corn carryout for both 2011-12 and 2012-13. The trade was looking for some moderate reductions in each category but instead left the old crop stocks at 851 million bushels and new crop at 1.881 billion bushels. The final corn yield still remained at 166 bpa which many in the trade still feel is too high given the dry conditions in many parts of the country. The crop condition report on Monday afternoon showed a 6 % drop in the good to excellent rating of corn across the nation which was not reflected in the USDA report. The weather in China has also been dry this year. Some weather forecasters are now trying to add more precipitation to the Midwest area for later next week. We will have to see if these forecasts hold up that far out. The soybean market closeed 10 cents higher yesterday as USDA lowered old crop soybean carryout by 35 million bushels down to 175 and new crop was lowered by 5 million bushels down to 140 million. USDA increased soybean exports by 20 million bushels and also added 15 to the soybean crush. World soybean stocks were left unchanged on yesterday's report. The trade is still looking for a large amount of soybean acres to be double-cropped following wheat this year provided soil moisture remains adequate. Some weather forecasts yesterday added more precipitation in the 6 to 10 day time slot for parts of the Midwest. Corn is currently trading 7 cents lower, beans are down 15 cents and wheat is down a penny.
6-12-12
OPENING CALLS : NEARBY CORN IS HIGHER, NEW CROP CORN IS LOWER, BEANS ARE HIGHER AND WHEAT IS HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
July corn futures closed 4 cents higher on Friday as more weather premium was added to the corn market. It has been estimated that one fourth of the corn crop has received less than an inch of rain in the past thirty days. Some rain is expected today across the northern portions of the corn belt but amounts may be limited to 1/2 inch or less. The next chances of rain then aren't expected until next Sunday. Much of the corn belt is experiencing nearly
4 inch deficits over the past month and crop condition ratings will start to fall dramatically if these conditions persist. This afternoon USDA will release their latest crop condition estimates. The soybean market closed 2 cents lower on Friday after trading on both sides of unchanged. Both China and Egypt bought soybeans from the United States on Friday. The US dollar finished sharply higher which was bearish to commodities. The strong exports and crush numbers in May have many in the trade feeling that USDA may lower their ending stocks numbers for this year possibly down to 170 million bushels. The market continues to worry that rainfall deficits could limit next year's production and reduce double-cropping opportunities. Currently corn is trading 3 cents higher, beans are up 8 cents and wheat is up 6 cents. Support today should come from higher outside markets with the latest weather forecasts being monitored closely.
6-8-12
OPENING CALLS ; CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
July Corn futures closed 8 cents higher on Thursday and 17 cents higher on new crop. The funds have renewed their interest in commodities and were buyers of nearly 14,000 contracts of corn yesterday. The latest weather models continue to be worrisome to the trade as they reduce rainfall totals for this week and next week across the corn belt. It's starting to look like the chances of having a national corn yield of 166 BPA is becoming less and less likely. Currently 53% of the corn crop is said to be stressing due to dry soils compared with only 25% a week ago. If rains do not materialize this week the crop rating on Monday's report will likely show a significant decline in many states. The soybean market closed 42 cents higher yesterday on renewed fund buying stimulated by China lowering their interest rate, stronger outside markets and a weaker US Dollar. China was believed to be seeking new crop soybean offers yesterday. The Argentine farmers strike continues and has now entered into the third day. The National Weather Service 6 to 10 day outlook calls for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation across much of the US. The latest US Drought Monitor shows that moderate drought conditions are moving farther north and now include much of Kansas, Iowa, Missouri and Illinois. The abnormally dry and warm May has quickly deteriorated crop conditions across parts of the Midwest in early June. Currently corn is trading 4 cents lower, beans are down 6 cents and wheat is 10 cents lower. Outside markets are weaker this morning and the dollar is sharply higher.
6-7-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 19 cents higher on Wednesday as some of the latest weather forecasts have lowered the chances for rain across the corn belt over the coming week. The market was also spurred on by a much weaker dollar and talk that the government may introduce a new stimulus package to help perk up the US economy. This gave the stock market a sharp boost and also encouraged funds to put money back into commodities. USDA also issued a report indicating that Chinese corn imports will likely rise to 7 MMT for this year. This could be good for US exports. The soybean market also ended the day sharply higher closing up 37 cents. Funds bought 8000 soybean contracts on the day. New fund interest in soybeans was inspired by Chinese buying of old crop US soybeans, talk that Brazil will run short of exportable grain in the coming months and continued dry weather concerns. Almost half of the US soybean production area is currently at risk due to dry soils and concerns continue to grow in the wheat areas that may be getting too dry to double-crop soybeans especially in the southern wheat belt. Currently corn is trading 5 cents higher, beans are up 22 cents and wheat is now 5 cents higher. The outside markets are stronger this morning and the dollar is weaker which is giving support to commodity prices.
6-6-12
OPENING CALLS ; CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 1/2 cent per bushel on nearby futures and 16 cents lower on new crop. Some weather models have increased the chances for rain across the Midwest for early next week. The weather system, if it materializes, could produce 1 to 2 inch rains across a good portion of the corn belt except for the extreme northern areas. The European model, however, calls for much less rainfall across the same areas. The Brazilian corn production estimate has been raised to 67.8 MMT by officials in Brazil while USDA still has production there estimated at 67.0 MMT. River corn basis levels continue to improve on cheaper barge freight numbers. The soybean market closed 9 1/2 cents higher on Tuesday inspite of lower corn and wheat prices. Worries of dry weather limiting double-cropping of soybeans after wheat harvest is becoming more of a concern. June weather forecasts continue to call for above average temperatures with below normal precipitation. The first soybean condition report came in at 65% good to excellent which was below expectations. Weather will be key to any improvement in these numbers in the coming weeks. Currently corn is trading 7 cents higher, beans are up 15 cents and wheat is up 6 cents. Outside markets are all stronger this morning with a weaker US dollar.
6-5-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING STEADY TO HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 16 1/2 cents higher on Monday as weather concerns dominated the marketplace. The latest weather forecasts continue to call for warm and dry conditions to remain across the corn belt over the next 10 days. This is adding some weather premium back into commodity prices. The crop condition report released yesterday afternoon left the corn crop rated at 72% good to excellent which was unchanged from last week. The weekly corn export inspection report came out at 27.1 million bushels which was below expectations. South American corn is currently cheaper than US corn and is drawing exports away from the US. The soybean market closed 4 cents lower on Monday as funds continued to exit out of the nearby months. Soybean export inspections came out at 17 million bushels which was above expectations of 12 to 14. It was announced yesterday that 165,000 tons of US soybeans were sold to China for next year delivery. The National Weather Service 30 day outlook calls for above normal temperatures across the Midwest and Delta regions. The first soybean condition report showed that the nations soybean crop was rated at 65% good to excellent. Currently corn is trading unchanged, beans are up 8 cents and wheat is down 2 cents. The dollar is higher and outside markets are weaker this morning.
6-4-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents lower on Friday after being much higher earlier in the session. Early gains were lost as weather forecasts added a little more rain for the Midwest for this week. A poor jobs data report on Friday showing an increase in the unemployment rate in the US also weighed on commodity prices. The market also remains concerned about the European and Chinese economies. The crop condition report will be released this afternoon and some think there will be more deterioration in the Eastern belt and maybe some improvement in the western belt. The nearby soybean market closed 4 cents higher on Friday suggesting that some fresh export business may be forthcoming. Some feel that a new stimulus program may be in the works to help stimulate the US economy. If that happens it could put downward pressure on the on the US dollar and improve US exports. Soybeans have dropped nearly a dollar per bushel in the past couple of weeks and could be due for an upward correction, especially if the latest weather forecasts hold up which are calling for below normal precipitation across much of the cornbelt. Corn is currently trading 14 cents higher and beans and wheat are both up a dime. The dollar is weaker and outside markets are mixed this morning.
6-1-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents lower on Thursday as some much needed rains fell across much of the Northern Midwest yesterday. Amounts of 1/2 inch to 1 1/2 inches were pretty common across the northernmost areas of the cornbelt. The Rochelle area received almost 1.5 inches over the past 24 hours. Rainfall amounts have been much lighter across Southern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Iowa and Nebraska received decent coverage and Minnesota has had too much rain and may have to replant in some of the western areas. The long range weather forecasts call for a return to above average temperatures and below normal precipitation throughout the cornbelt. The soybean market closed 33 cents lower yesterday as funds sold an estimated 8000 bean contracts on the day. Heavy selling was encouraged by decent rains in wheat country and across the Midwest and by concerns over economic problems in the EU and China. Recent rains may now allow for double-cropping of soybeans in areas that may have been previously too dry. Soybean germination now will also be much better in areas that were planted later and had some beans sitting in dry dirt. Currently nearby corn is trading 7 cents higher, beans are down 5 cents and wheat is unchanged. Outside markets are weaker this morning.
5-31-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Nearby corn futures closed 3 cents lower on Wednesday and new crop corn 3 cents higher in a day of mixed trade. The dollar continues to grow stronger as problems in the European Union with Greece and Spain continue to resurface. A stronger dollar means it becomes more expensive for foreign countries to buy US grain leading to lower US exports. We are experiencing some light rain showers in the Rochelle area. Missouri and Iowa have seen amounts range from 1/4 inch to 1 1/2 inches. Longer range forecasts are calling for above normal temperatures with below normal rainfall across the Midwest. Russia and Northern China still remain fairly dry. The soybean market closed 13 1/2 cents lower on Wednesday as the funds sold 4000 contracts of soybeans on the day. Soybean exports have slowed down over the past couple of days as Chinese crush margins have moved into negative territory. Good rains are still needed across much of the Midwest to aid in germination of the later planted soybeans. Rains will also be needed to allow double cropping of soybeans following the early harvested wheat. Currently corn is trading a penny lower, beans are down 8 cents and wheat is 6 cents lower. Look for the markets to trend lower today as some much needed rainfall is occurring across the drier parts of the Midwest.
5-30-12
OPENING CALLS: CORN IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER, BEANS ARE LOWER AND WHEAT IS ALSO LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Nearby corn futures closed 16 cents lower and December corn closed 4 cents lower on Tuesday as traders decided to continue to liquidate their positions. Negative outside markets also weighed on grain prices. Some weather forecasters were also adding 1 to 2 inch rains from Missouri to Ohio on Thursday and Friday which was detrimental to prices. The corn crop condition report released yesterday afternoon showed a 5% drop in the good to excellent rating. Illinois, Indiana and Kansas showed the biggest drop of 13 to 14%. Most of these states missed the key rains over the weekend and endured temperatures near 100 degrees which continued to dry soils and stress crops. The soybean market closed 5 cents higher on Tuesday despite the selloff in corn and wheat. Argentine soybean production estimates continue to drop and have now fallen to below 40 MMT. Some soybean fields are still struggling with emergence as dry soils hamper germination. The planting progress report released yesterday afternoon showed that 89% of the nations soybean crop is now planted vs 76% last week and 61% average. Soybean export inspections came in at 12.4 million bushels which was on the low end of trade expectations. The corn market is currently trading a penny higher, beans are 9 cents lower and wheat is down 5 cents.
5-29-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN IS CALLED STEADY TO LOWER, BEANS ARE CALLED HIGHER AND WHEAT IS LOWER.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed unchanged on Friday ahead of the three day holiday weekend. News that Spain was again having financial problems drove the European and US stock markets lower. Grain market direction was led by wheat on Friday. Dry weather in Russia, Austrailia, parts of China and the US are all becoming a concern and will have a big impact on wheat harvest results in the weeks ahead. This afternoon crop condition ratings will be released and are expected to show a drop in corn ratings by 2 to 3 % from last week's 77% number. The soybean market closed 6 cents higher on Friday as weather continues to dominate the trade. Some of the late planted soybeans do not have enough moisture to germinate. Almost 80% of the topsoil moisture is rated as being short along with 50% of the subsoil moisture. The BA Exchange dropped the Argentine soybean production by another 1.1 MMT down to 39.9. This will continue to help US export demand. The latest 6 to 10 day weather forecasts calls for normal temperatures with below normal rainfall across the Midwest. Russia and China are expected to remain dry. Corn is currently trading near unchanged, beans are up 11 cents and wheat is down 9 cents. Look for the markets to trade mixed this morning.
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL TRADING HIGHER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 25 cents yesterday as more talk circulated in the trade that there may have been more corn contracts cancelled. Corn export inspections came in below expectations at 19 million bushels. The trade was looking for a number near 35. Funds have now lightened up their long positions by almost 200,000 contracts in the past 2 months. Weather still remains a big concern across many parts of the country. The Delta and Plains States still remain very dry and crop conditions there continue to deteriorate. The extended forecasts calls for cooler temperatures next week with increasing chances for some rain showers. The soybean market closed 13 1/2 cents higher on Thursday following nearly a week of receeding prices. Soybean prices have dropped 82 cents per bushel since last Thursday. Soybean cancellations by China and the possibility of more acres going into soybeans following wheat have led prices on a downward spiral. The recent dry weather across the country has put into question lately wether the lack of moisture will actually now limit the amount of double-cropping. Soybean export inspections came in at 35 million bushels which was closer to the high end of expectations. The corn market is currently trading at 6 cents higher, beans are up a penny and wheat is up 10 cents.
5-23-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS ANS WHEAT ARE ALL CALLED LOWER THIS MORNING.
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 36 cents lower on Tuesday as rumors circulated in the marketplace that China was rolling old crop purchases into the new crop delivery period. The dollar was also sharply higher on fears of renewed recession in the European Union.The higher corn crop rating at 77% good to excellent also weighed on corn prices yesterday. Weather forecasts will be closely watched over the next week to see if such a high crop rating can be maintained. The latest forecasts are calling for hot temperatures across the corn belt this weekend with the best chances for rain in the Northern Plains and NW Corn Belt early next week. The Eastern Corn Belt looks to remain relatively dry. The soybean market closed 30 cents lower on Tuesday as talk circulated that China had cancelled some soybean contracts for delivery in the nearby months due to poor crushing margins. The rapid planting pace of soybeans now at 76% nationwide also put downward pressure on soybean prices yesterday. The current forecast should allow for continued speed in planting this week. The winter wheat crop will soon start to be harvested up to 3 weeks early in many areas which will allow for more double-cropped beans to follow, providing there is adequate soil moisture. Currently corn is trading 2 cents lower, beans are down 23 cents and wheat is 18 cents lower.
5-22-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN, BEANS AND WHEAT ARE ALL CALLED LOWER TODAY.
Good Morning,
Nearby corn futures closed down 2 1/2 cents on Monday after trading higher early in the session. Talk of hot, dry weather across much of the country got grain futures off to a good start especially in the new crop months. A private crop analyst put the national corn yield at 157 BPA which is much lower than USDA's current estimate of 166. Corn export inspections came out below expectations at 23 million bushels on Monday. The planting progress report showed that 96% of the nation's corn crop is now planted vs 81% on average. The US corn crop is 76% emerged and 77% of the crop is rated good to excellent. The soybean market closed 7 1/2 cents higher on Monday as reports of dry weather in the Plains and Delta regions took center stage. Soybean futures also gained support from stronger outside markets and a weaker dollar. Soybean export inpections came in at 12.7 million bushels which was slightly below expectations of between 14 to 18. China was the main buyer. The planting progress report showed that 76% of the nation's soybean crop is now planted vs the 5 year average of 42%. Iowa was reported to be 85% finished along with Illinois at 80%. Weather forecasts over the next week to 10 days remain warm and mostly dry over much of the corn belt. At the current time corn futures are trading 8 1/2 cents lower, beans are down 4 cents and wheat is 15 cents lower.
5-21-12
OPENING CALLS : HIGHER FOR CORN AND BEANS AND LOWER FOR WHEAT
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 10 1/2 cents higher on Friday as funds continued to buy corn as forecasts remained warm and dry across much of the corn belt. Northern China and Russia also continue to be dry and there appears to be no change over the next week or so. This afternoon USDA will release their first crop rating report. The corn rating is expected to come out at 70 to 72% good to excellent vs last year at only 63%. There was some rainfall overnight across the corn belt but most amounts were less than 1/2 inch. The soybean market closed 33 cents lower on Friday as funds continued to liquidate soybean positions. No new Chinese business was announced on Friday. There was talk in the trade that China would start to release some of the soybean stocks form their reserves to keep prices under control. The trade also realizes that there will be more double-cropped beans this year following wheat harvest which will be much earlier than normal.The electronic trade expands to 21 hours starting today and will trade from 5 PM to 2 PM. The pit trade will keep their hours from 9:30 AM to 1:15 PM and closing prices will be based off of the 1:15 pit close. As of this writing corn was up 5 cents, beans were up 7 cents and wheat was up 2 cents.
5-18-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 3 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 cents higher on Thursday despite weaker outside markets and a stronger dollar. Extended weather forecasts calling for warm and dry conditions across much of the US will be good for early crop development but rainfall will be needed soon in many areas as topsoil moisture is drying out very rapidly. Some rain is forecast over the weekend with amounts of 1/2 inch to 1 inch in the NW Corn Belt and Plains and up to 1/3 of an inch elsewhere. On Monday USDA will release their first corn crop condition report along with the planting progress. Most are looking for a rating near 70% good to excellent vs 63% last year. The soybean market closed 16 cents higher yesterday as USDA announced a sale of 480,000 tons of beans to China for this marketing year. The weather across the country this past week has allowed for rapid planting progress of soybeans which should be reflected on Monday afternoon's report. Dry weather is starting to become a factor as rain may be needed in some areas to germinate the newly planted seed. Rainfall will also be needed is those areas where soybeans are expected to be double cropped after the wheat is taken off. In the overnight trade corn closed up 4 cents, beans were down 6 cents and wheat closed up 5 1/2 cents. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning as dry weather forecasts could start to add some weather premium to corn and wheat prices. The dollar is weaker and outside markets are stronger this morning.
5-17-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 6 TO 12 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 23 cents higher on Wednesday as USDA announced that 900,000 tonnes of US corn was sold to China. The majority of this was previously reported as sold to Unknown. Dry weather across the Corn Belt, Delta and Mid South regions is also gaining attention. Extended forecasts are showing above normal temperatures with very little rainfall across most of the corn belt. Dry weather is also being monitored in parts of Northern China and Russia. Some believe that Russian grain exports for next year could drop by 8% due to unfavorable weather. There is also concerns of a freeze in the European Union which could damage crops. All of this added some risk premium to commodities yesterday. The soybean market closed 9 cents higher yesterday amid rumors that China may have made another large purchase of US soybeans. The market may have been tempered, however, by ideas that China will be releasing some of the soybeans out of their reserves in the near future. Gains may also have been limited due to the problems in Greece. Traders are worried that the Euro will continue to loss value and stregthen the dollar making US exports more expensive. In the overnight trade corn closed down a penny, beans were up 11 cents and wheat closed 2 cents higher. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning on a stronger dollar amid growing weather concerns.
5-16-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 16 TO 18 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 14 cents higher yesterday after several days of heavy liquidation. There was some talk in the trade yesterday that China had some interest again in buying US corn. Possibly one reason for the strong rally. The rain in the upper Midwest was very light overnight with most areas coming in under a tenth of an inch. The rest of the week looks dry. Dry weather is also expected to continue in the Delta and central and southern states. USDA currently has the national corn yield at 166 BPA which is higher than many analysts in the trade actually believe. Outside markets were lower overnight with crude oil down over a dollar per barrel this morning. The soybean market closed 26 cents higher yesterday on fund buying as the supplies of soybeans remain very tight. Talk circulated yesterday that China may have bought some US soybeans also may have helped to spur on the rally.The soybean market has dropped over 80 cents in the past couple of days and was due for a technical correction. The market still remains concerned about the problems in Greece. Greece is threatening to leave the European Union which is keeping the US dollar strong. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 cents, beans were 16 cents lower and wheat closed down 1/4 cent. Look for the grain markets to open lower this morning due to weaker outside markets and a stronger dollar.
5-14-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 16 TO 18 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents higher on Monday despite sharply lower soybean prices. Maybe corn prices have dropped enough over the past couple of weeks to have reached a short term bottom. Crude oil reached a 5 month low yesterday as concerns over Greece's financial situation resurfaced and caused the dollar to strengthen and outside markets weaken. Corn export inspections came out at the low end of expectations at 26.8 million bushels. The planting progress report released yesterday afternoon revealed that 87% of the nation's corn crop is now planted vs 66% on average. Illinois came in at 95% complete, Indiana at 93%, Iowa at 90%, and Ohio at 84%. The corn crop is now 56% emerged. Weather conditions this week should permit the balance of the corn crop to be planted. The soybean market closed 19 cents lower yesterday as funds continued to exit soybean positions. It was estimated that they sold over 7000 contracts of soybeans on Monday. JP Morgan was said to be selling soybean contracts to cover losses in their swaps positions. Nearby soybean futures have dropped more than 80 cents in the past 2 trading sessions. Soybean exports were supportive yesterday coming out at 20.3 million bushels which was above the trade expectations of 13 to 17. Soybean planting progress was reported at 46% complete nationwide compared with 24% on average. Weather for the balance of this week will support active planting activity. In the overnight trade corn closed 5 1/2 cents higher, beans were up 18 cents and wheat closed 8 cents higher. Look for the grain markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
5-14-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY
BEANS - 25 TO 26 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 1/2 cents lower on Friday after losing nearly 50 cents for the week. An annoucement that JP Morgan lost 2 billion dollars in trading activities created another round of liquidation in commodities on Friday. Continued concerns about economies in the European Union also weighed on prices. Funds sold more than 5000 contracts of corn on Friday. This afternoon USDA will release their latest planting progress report which should show another good week. The soybean market closed 49 cents lower on Friday on weak economic numbers out of China and on concerns over the fallout form the problems at JP Morgan. There were rumors on Friday that JP Morgan was going to sell beans from their commodity funds to cover the losses in the bad trades they made in the past 6 weeks. This morning traders will be looking for the soybean crush numbers to come out around 131 million bushels. It was believed on Friday that China had bought a couple of cargoes of old beans which didn't seem to help the market much. In the overnight trade corn closed unchanged, beans were down 25 cents and wheat closed down 3 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning on concerns over Greece. This is rallying the dollar and weighing on the outside markets.
5-11-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 15 TO 17 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 4 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 20 cents on Thursday following the USDA supply-demand report. USDA put the 2011-12 corn carryout at 851 million bushels. The trade was looking for a number near 750 and in April USDA came out at 801. USDA lowered the feed/residual usage by 50 million bushels and left exports unchanged. The 2012-13 ending stocks came out at 1.88 billion bushels while the trade was expecting a number closer to 1.70. USDA also raised the Brazil corn crop by 5 MMT. USDA also raised the corn yield by 2 BPA up to 166. All of this made for a very bearish day for corn. The soybean market closed 25 cents higher yesterday on a slightly friendly USDA report for soybeans.USDA put the 2011-12 soybean carryout at 210 million bushels which was 40 million bushels less than the April estimate of 250 and slightly lower than trade expectations of 221. The 2012-13 soybean carryout was pegged at 145 million bushels. With that tight of a stocks situation, it leaves no room for any problems with this year's US soybean crop. Weather will play a key role in soybean price direction this year. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 cents, beans were 16 cents lower and wheat closed down 4 1/2 cents. Look for the grain markets to open lower this morning on weaker outside markets.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed unchanged yesterday after trading as much as 8 cents lower. Higher stock markets and a lower dollar helped to bring the corn market back from its lows. New crop corn hit a 14 month low of $5.15 during the session before rallying back. Weekly export inspections came out at a disappointing 29.3 million bushels. Thursday morning USDA will release their latest supply-demand report. Most in the trade are now looking for the report to be bearish for corn. USDA put the corn planting pace at 71% complete vs 47% average. This compares with last year at 32%. Illinois came in at 89% complete. The soybean market closed 12 1/2 cents lower yesterday partially because of improving weather forecasts which should allow planting to resume in many areas. Last Friday Informa increased the soybean acres to 75.8 which compares to USDA's last estimate of 73.9. USDA released the latest planting estimate putting the soybean pace at 24%. Last year only 6% of the nations soybeans had been planted. Illinois came in at 21% and Iowa at only 7%. In the overnight trade corn and beans closed up 7 cents and wheat closed 2 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning as some rumors are floating around that China may have interest in some old and new crop corn.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 17 1/2 cents lower yesterday as the funds sold 18,000 contracts on the day. Traders were concerned about the increasing unemployment numbers in the European Union creating new fears of recession there. Outside markets also added downward pressure along with a stronger dollar. Decent rains in the Midwest and warmer temperatures were looked on as very beneficial to early crop development. All of these factors weighed on the market in a very negative way on Wednesday. The soybean market closed 18 1/2 cents lower yesterday in another day of heavy liquidation. Funds sold 9000 contracts on the day. The market sold off yesterday despite annoucements that China bought 30,000 MMT of US soybean oil and that bean sales of 130,000 MT for new crop to unknown was also released. Despite the lower closes yesterday the trade still remains concerned over adequate soybean stocks for next year. New crop demand remains strong and diminishing world stocks continue to worry the trade for the long term. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were down 3 cents and wheat closed 3 cents higher. Look for the grain markets to open mixed this morning. Outside markets are weaker with the US dollar trading higher again today.
5-1-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents higher on Monday after being lower for most of the session. A late round of buying helped to rally the market near the close. Funds were estimated to have bought 3000 contracts on the day. The export inspection report came in a little disappointing at only 24.9 million bushels. The trade was looking for the number to come in between 31 to 35. There were no announcements of any new corn sales to China yesterday. The planting progress report released yesterday afternoon showed that 53% of the nation's corn crop is now planted vs 27% average. Last year only 12% of the corn crop was planted. Iowa made some rapid progress planting 41% of their corn crop in one week. They now stand at 50% complete. The soybean market closed 6 cents higher yesterday following some last minute buying late in the session. South American production continues to grow smaller while soybean demand remains strong. China purchased another 220,000 MT of new crop soybeans from the US yesterday. The soybean export inspection report yesterday came in at 15.5 million bushels which was below the trade expectations of between 20 to 22. The planting progress report showed that 12% of the nation's soybean crop is now planted compared with the 5 year average of 5%. In the overnight trade corn closed down 6 1/2 cents, beans were 12 cents lower and wheat closed down 8 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
4-30-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 29 cents higher on Friday on strong buying interest from the funds and the commercials. Announcements of sales to China totalling 1.5 MMT was the largest single day sale in nearly two decades. Some in the trade feel that there may be more sales to China in the works. Some analysts believe that China may need to import as much as 10 to 15 MMT of corn in 2012/13. USDA will release the planting progress report this afternoon. Traders are guessing the report will show 40 to 45% of the nation's corn is now planted vs 36 average. Last year only 13% of the nation's corn was planted. Weekly US corn export inspections are estimated at 34 million bushels. The soybean market closed 15 1/2 cents higher on Friday on continued buying interest. Fundamentals continue to grow more bullish as South American production estimates continue to drop, export demand remains strong and world soybean stocks continue to diminish. Informa lowered the Argentine soybean estimate to 40 MMT which was 5 MMT below their previous estimate. China purchased another 226,000 MT of soybeans which was announced on Friday. Soybean planting progress is expected to come in at 10 to 12 % complete vs 7 % average. Soybean exports are estimated at 22 million bushels. In the overnight trade corn closed unchanged, beans were down 10 cents and wheat closed 7 1/2 cents lower. Look for the markets to open steady to lower this morning as the dollar was stronger and the outside markets weaker.
4-27-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 11 TO 13 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 13 cents higher in the May contract on Thursday while new crop closed 3 cents lower. The strength in the old crop is coming on strong export demand. Ideas that China may have bought some more corn led to the strength in the nearby months. Corn planting progress continues to roll along with many areas finishing up with corn and now moving along on the soybeans. Monday afternoon's progress report should show some significant gains. Weather forecasts are calling for as much as 1 to 2 inches of rain to fall thru the weekend and into next week followed by warming temperatures which will be good for early crop development. Some areas of the Midwest are in desperate need of rain. The soybean market closed 8 cents higher yesterday on strong export sales and continued concerns over decreasing world soybean stocks. Argentina's production numbers continue to decline and many now believe their numbers will drop below 40 MMT. This could keep soybean stocks very tight for the next two years. The current stocks to use ratio is around 8% and some believe that next year this could drop below 4%. Soybean planting progress may be slowed a little next week as rain is forecast across the Midwest for the weekend and into next week. In the overnight trade corn closed up 6 cents, beans were 12 cents higher and wheat closed up 4 1/2 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning as the trade awaits any new announcements of US sales to China.
4-26-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 7 cents on Wednesday after showing some strong gains on the annoucement of corn sales to China just after the opening. Corn quickly sold off on profit taking and on ideas that the large acreage numbers will lead to rebuilding of stocks going into next year. The latest weather forecasts are calling for rain across the Midwest on Friday and lasting into Saturday. This could bring some much needed rainfall to areas that have been fairly dry this spring. Warmer temperatures predicted for next week will aid in the germination and development of the young corn plants. The soybean market closed 12 cents higher yesterday as funds continued to pump money into soybeans. The diminishing South American crop along with strong export demand in the US has created a lot of renewed interest in the soybean market. Many in the trade now feel that US carryout levels of soybeans could drop below 200 million bushels which would leave stocks very tight. Unless soybean prices atrract more bean acres, carryout stocks for next year could be even tighter. Weather is going to have to be near perfect for this year's soybean crop for soybean stocks to remain at adequate levels for next year. In the overnight trade corn closed up 4 cents, beans were down a penny and wheat closed 3 1/2 cents higher. Look for the markets this morning to open in line with the overnight settlements. Outside markets were mixed this morning with the dollar a little weaker and metals higher.
4-25-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 24 TO 29 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents lower yesterday after opening higher and trading as much as 10 cents higher early in the session. Higher outside markets and a corn sale of 480MT to unknown helped to spark the corn market. Corn futures closed lower on a report near the end of the session that a cow in California was rumored to have BSE. The press conference that followed, revealed that the cow had never entered the food chain and the disease was not contrived due to any tainted feed. In the Midwest, planting progress continued to move along, however, some in the trade now feel that the top end of corn yields may be trimmed back some due to the cool weather in April. Some analyts project a 161 BPA national yield vs the current USDA estimate at 164. The soybean market closed 24 cents higher yesterday on lower South American crop estimates. Some in the trade lowered the Argentine soybean crop down another 2 MMT to 41.5 and believe that estimates could drop as low as 37 MMT by the time harvest is complete. The market is going to have to slow demand on ever tightening stocks which suggests further upside potential in soybean prices. The market will need to continue to try to draw in more soybean acres for the coming year. In the overnight trade corn closed up 5 1/2 cents, beans were 28 cents higher and wheat closed up 5 1/2 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
4-24-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 10 TO 12 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 10 cents higher yesterday on ideas that China may have signed a deal to import US corn to replenish grain reserves. Sinograin, the Chinese Grain Reserve Corp., signed an agreement last week to import 500,000 tons of US corn. Heavy rains in many of China's Northern Provinces last year resulted in lower corn yields and reduced their supplies, keeping them from building their domestic reserves. Sinograin said that they are ready to boost imports of US corn to replenish reserves. Last year Sinograin purchased 3 to 4 MMT of US corn. The planting progress report released yesterday afternoon showed that 28% of the nations corn crop is now planted vs 15% average. Illinois came in at 59% vs 17% average, Indiana at 46% vs 10% average, and Iowa at 9% vs 16% average. The trade was expecting the national average to come in above 30%. The soybean market closed 9 1/2 cents lower yesterday on weak economic news out of China. Last week the soybean market was higher on rumors that China was interested in buying some US soybeans, however, nothing was confirmed on Monday. The first soybean planting progress report was released yesterday afternoon showing that 6% of the nations soybean crop was now planted. This compares with 2% average. Indiana came in at 11%, Illinois at 5%, Missouri at 4% and Iowa at 1%. In the overnight trade corn closed up 3 cents, beans were 11 cents higher and wheat closed up 5 1/2 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
4-23-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 8 1/2 cents lower on Friday as the trade anxiously awaited some confirmation of the rumored corn sales to China. Talk was that the Chinese had purchased between 1 to 4 cargoes of US corn, but when nothing was confirmed on Friday, the market dropped. This afternoon USDA will release another planting progress report. The trade is looking for the report to show that somewhere between 25 to 30% of the nations corn crop is now planted. Last week Illinois was at 41% complete and should show some good gains on today's report. Planting will continue across most of the Midwest this week as forecasts are calling for a warm and mostly dry week. The soybean market closed 31 cents higher on Friday as the trade remained concerned over supplies of soybeans and soy products this coming year. South American production numbers continue to decline and concerns over enough soybean acres getting planted in the US this year are worrisome to the trade. Another drop in Argentine soybean production is expected this week. Some analysts are estimating the production to fall below 40 MMT. The first soybean planting progress report is to be released this afternoon. Traders are estimating that between 5 to 7% of the nations soybean crop will be reported planted on this afternoon's report. There were also some rumors late Friday that the Chinese were in the market for US soybeans for July shipment. In the overnight trade corn closed up 2 cents, beans were down 6 cents and wheat closed up a penny. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
4-20-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 19 cents higher on Thursday as talk that the Chinese might have purchased 1 to 2 cargoes of US corn. Also helping the corn market was the announcement by Japan that they would not be buying any more corn from the EU or the Ukraine for the balance of the year due to quality issues. This was enough to give the corn market a big boost yesterday as the funds became big buyers. Also the Argentine government reported yesterday that they expect their corn crop to come in at 20.3 MMT which is below USDA's last number at 21.5. Traders today will continue to look for confirmation of the rumors of the Chinese corn purchases. The soybean market closed 8 cents higher yesterday on better than expected export numbers. USDA reported that 44.8 million buhels of soybeans were sold this past week as China continues to purchase US soybeans. It was reported yesterday that China's largest bean producing province was in the worst drought it has seen in the past 10 years. That could be good for US exports. The Northern Corn Belt is expected to see some rain today with some frost possible tonight. Extended forecasts call for warmer temperatures with below normal rainfall for the balance of April. In the overnight trade corn closed 5 cents higher, beans were up 6 cents and wheat closed a penny lower. Look for the markets to open slightly higher this morning pending confirmation of Chinese business.
4-19-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 12 TO 14 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 14 TO 16 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 15 cents yesterday as liquidation continued in the grain markets for another day. Funds sold an estimated 25,000 contracts of corn on the day. Near record high planting progress at 17% has the traders thinking that with good weather this spring and summer the corn crop could come in several bushels per acre above trend line yields. This has put new crop corn on the defensive lately. The weather forecasts next week look pretty good for adding to the record fast planting pace. US prices are still favorable to the Chinese and many will be watching the export report today for any new confirmation of sales. The soybean market closed 18 cents lower on Wednesday as the funds sold another 6000 soybean contracts. Record long positions in the soybean market continued to leave soybeans vulnerable to the swings in the global economies. On an optimistic note, soybean sales continue to be made to China. Export sales will be released today and traders are looking for soybean sales to come in between 31 to 40 million bushels vs 23.4 million bushels for last week. In the overnight trade corn closed 13 cents higher, beans were up 15 cents and wheat closed 9 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning on talk that China was back in the market looking for corn. The dollar was lower and outside markets were stronger which also lent support in the overnight trade.
4-18-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 13 TO 15 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 1/2 cents lower yesterday in another day of fund liquidation. Early in the session the corn market moved higher with the help of the stronger outside markets but then was confronted with selling pressure. There were some rumors that China was in the market looking for corn so traders will be watching for some confirmation to see if any actual sales were made. The corn planting progress report was released yesterday afternoon and came in at 17% nationwide which is just below the 2010 record of 19%. Last year the national corn planting was at 5% complete. Illinois repored in at 41% vs 6% average. The soybean market closed 6 cents higher yesterday as soybean tried to attract more acres for this spring's planting season. Soybean export sales were a little disappointing coming in at only 18.5 million bushels. The trade was expecting the number to fall between 20 to 25. China was the featured buyer. Private forecasters continue to lower South American production with some estimates now dropping to 43.5 MMT in Argentina which is currently 1.5 MMT below the last USDA estimate of 45. In the overnight trade corn closed down 1 1/2 cents, beans were down 14 cents and wheat closed down 1/2 cent. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements
4-17-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
BEANS - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 cents lower yesterday as weekend rains covered a good section of the Midwest. The planting progress report was delayed yesterday due to technical difficulties but traders are estimating that 25% of the corn crop has already been planted compared with 7% on average. The report will be released today. Corn exports released yesterday afternoon came in at 42.9 million bushels which was much higher than the expectations of 26 to 30. Japan was the featured buyer. The soybean market closed 17 cents lower yesterday on heavy selling pressure. Funds have been holding record long positions in the soybean market and took some profits yesterday. The trade is beginning to realize that more soybean acres will be drawn into the equation due to high prices and the possibility of much more double cropping of soybeans following wheat. Soybean exports came in a little disappointing yesterday at 18.1 million bushels compared with expectations of between 20 to 25. US soybean exports, however, have remained strong this year due to the shrinking size of the South American crop. In the overnight trade corn closed down a penny, beans were 6 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed up 3 cents. Look for the grain markets to open mixed this morning
4-16-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 10 TO 11 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 6 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 8 cents lower on Friday on concerns over sluggish Chinese growth and weaker outside markets. A stronger dollar also lent support to the weakness in prices. The European bond market in both Italy and Spain were both yielding higher rates which was a concern for the grain markets on Friday. Forecasts for some decent rains over the weekend in some of the drier areas of the Midwest also weighed on prices. Corn planting progress is expected to show some good gains on this afternoon's report. The trade is looking for the numbers to fall between 20 to 25% complete vs 7% average. There was some frost damage in some areas last week but the trade is mostly ignoring it because it is still early enough to allow for replanting if necessary. The soybean market closed 4 cents lower on Friday succumbing to many of the same pressures facing corn. The weakness wasn't as strong as with corn however because South American production estimates continue to be lowered. The latest Argentine soybean numbers are expected to fall below 44 MMT which will help to keep US soybean prices strong. Beans will need to continue to draw acres away from corn. Keep in mind also that more soybean acres will likely be double cropped following wheat this year. In the overnight trade corn closed 6 cents lower, beans were down 10 cents and wheat closed 7 cents lower. Look for the grain markets to open lower this morning on weakness from some good rainfall totals in many areas over the weekend.
4-13-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 2 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 1 1/2 cents higher yesterday on a weaker dollar and stronger outside markets. Funds bought around 5000 contracts of corn on the day. Corn export sales came in better than expected at 37.8 million bushels. Mexico was the featured buyer. It is believed that China may have bought between 2 to 6 cargoes of corn this week. New crop prices struggled yesterday on ideas that weekend rainfall would be beneficial to the extremely dry areas especially in the western corn belt. Planting porgress has proceeded along very good this week and should show some good numbers on Monday afternoon's report. The soybean market closed 19 cents higher on Thursday on strong fund buying. A weaker dollar also lent support to soybean prices. Soybean export sales continue at a brisk pace coming in at 23.4 million bushels yesterday. China continues to buy US beans as prices remain competitive in the US ports and because South American supplies continue to grow smaller. The BA grain exchange yesterday lowered the Argentine soybean production by another 1 MMT now down to 44 MMT. Some believe that the number may fall to as low as 40. In the overnight trade corn and beans closed up a penny and wheat closed unchanged. Look for the markets to open steady this morning. The dollar is a little stronger and there still remains concern over China's weak GDP.
4-11-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up a penny yesterday in a day of fairly quiet trade. Funds bought around 6000 contracts of corn on the day. Some light frost was noted the past couple of nights across the northern portions of the corn belt but should not have impacted any areas in which the corn crop has emerged. The planting pace is progressing along well in the southern corn belt areas. The Midwest weather pattern is expected to turn wetter starting this weekend with 3 inch rains possible in some areas. The soybean market closed 4 cents lower yesterday on light commercial and fund selling. There has been some talk in the trade that between 2 to 3 million acres might be switched back to soybeans this spring. Soybean exports have remained strong and some new sales to China were announced yesterday. Analysts have been thinking that soybean exports may stay strong thru the summer months. This could make the tight carryout numbers even tighter on soybeans over the next couple of months. In the overnight trade corn closed up 2 cents, beans were 6 cents higher and wheat closed up 4 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
4-10-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
WHEAT - 5 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 14 cents lower yesterday following the USDA Supply-Demand report. USDA left the corn carryout unchanged from last month at 801 million bushels. That number was a little disappointing as the trade was expecting the ending stocks number to come in around 717 million bushels. USDA also left the Brazil corn crop unchanged at 62 MMT. Argentina's corn crop was lowered by 1/2 MMT from last month, down to 21.5. Corn planting was reported to be 7% complete nation-wide on Monday, which was 5% above average and 4% higher than last year. The soybean market closed 5 cents lower yesterday after opening much higher. USDA lowered the ending stocks for soybeans by 25 million bushels down to 250. Soybean crush and exports both increased by 15 million bushels while seed was lowered by 5 million. USDA lowered the estimate for both Brazil and Argentina's soybean crop. Brazil's crop was estimated at 66 MMT which was a drop of 2.5 MMT from March. Argentina's soybean crop came in at 45 MMT which was a decrease of 1.5 MMT from the previous month. In the overnight trade corn closed 2 1/2 cents higher, beans were up a penny and wheat closed 5 cents higher. Look for the markets to open steady to higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 10 1/2 cents lower on Wednesday as funds sold an estimated 20,000 contracts of corn. Corn closed lower despite the announcement made yesterday that China has purchased 6 cargoes of corn from the US for May and June delivery. Traders continued to liquidate positions ahead of the USDA report which will be released tommorrow morning. The average guess for corn acres remains at 94.7 million. Corn planters continue to roll along in central and southern Illinois. Weather forecasts remain good for the next couple of days and will then be followed by cooler weather into early April. Frost and freezes will be possible in the northern areas of the US around the second week of April. The soybean market closed 2 cents lower yesterday as some light profit taking was evident prior to tommorrow mornings report. Soybeans have been reluctant to drop too much in price since the South American production levels continue to grow smaller. The market also continues to worry about getting adequate acres planted to soybeans this spring in the US. For the report tommorrow, the trade is looking for 75.4 million acres to be planted to soybeans this year. In the overnight trade corn closed down 5 1/2 cents, beans were 3 cents higher and wheat closed down 2 cents. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning as the outside markets are weaker to start off the day.
3-28-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents lower on Tuesday as some evening up of positions ahead of the report on Friday was taking place. USDA will estimate planting intentions and release the latest stocks numbers. The trade is looking for corn acres to come out at 94.7 million acres. Last year US farmers planted 91.9 million acres to corn. The average guess for corn stocks as of March 1st is 6.150 billion bushels. Last year March 1 corn stocks came in at 6.532. Some corn planting has already taken place in central and southern Illinois. The 6 to 10 day forecasts call for normal rainfall and normal to above normal temps across the Midwest. Cooler temperatures are predicted for April 4th thru the 9th with eastern midwest temperatures close to freezing at night. The soybean market closed 10 cents lower on Tuesday as liquidation ahead of Friday's report was evident. The trade is looking for soybean acres to come in at 75.4 million which compares to last year's number of 74.98. The soybean stocks estimate as of March 1st is expected to come in at 1.376 billion bushels compared to last year's number of 1.249. Fall soybean prices have continued to rally vs fall corn prices and has eroded some of the profitability of planting corn over beans. The market is doing it's job of trying to attract more bean acres. It will be interesting to see if any of this plays out in the report on Friday. In the overnight trade corn closed 2 cents higher, beans were up 6 cents and wheat closed 4 1/2 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
OPENING CALLS : CORN- 3 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 6 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
Good morning,
Corn futures closed 15 cents lower yesterday as the funds became heavy sellers. The funds sold nearly 20,000 contracts of corn on the day. Profit taking ahead of the USDA supply-demand report on Friday along with increased fears of the Greece debt deal actually getting finalized lowered commodity prices yesterday. A slowing Chinese growth rate also has weighed on prices lately. China also announced that they will plant more corn in 2012 and reduce soybean acres. USDA will release their latest supply-demand estimates on Friday morning. Traders are not looking for any big changes to the carryouts but will be watching closely South American production numbers. The soybean market closed down 8 1/2 cents on Wednesday as position squaring was evident in the market place prior to tommorrows USDA report. Traders are looking for a soybean carryout for this year of around 258 million bushels on this report which is slightly lower than last months number of 275. The trade is looking for lower South American corn and soybean production numbers. Weather in both Argentina and Brazil is expected to be dry thru this week. In the overnight trade corn closed 4 cents higher, beans were up 5 cents and wheat closed up 6 1/2 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning on stronger outside markets which is lending support to commodities.
3-7-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 8 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 3 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 11 TO 12 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 cents higher yesterday on strong fund and commercial buying. Old crop corn closed at its highest level in 6 months. The insurance price for corn which is set in February will be locked in at $5.68. It will be interesting to see if this price will be high enough to attract the 94 million acres predicted to be planted to corn this spring. USDA will release their latest supply-demand report on Friday morning at 7:30 am. Most in the trade are not looking for big changes in the US numbers but will be closely watching for any big changes in the South American production numbers. Weekly corn export inspections came in at a moderate 31 million bushels with South Korea the featured buyer. The soybean market closed 8 cents lower on Monday following comments by China over the weekend that their economic growth rate will be 1/2 % less than previously forecast. South America is continuing to plug along with harvest despite the port strike in Argentina and some port problems in Brazil. In Brazil soybean harvest is now estimated to be near 33% complete vs 21 % average. The backlog of vessels waiting to be loaded is high right now but probably will decline as harvest moves along. US beans have continued to be competitive and it looks like China will continue to show interest in US beans for the next couple of months. Soybean export inspections came in at 32.5 million bushels which was slightly lower than expectations. In the overnight trade corn closed down 8 cents, beans were 4 cents lower and wheat closed down 12 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning on concerns over a delay on the Greece debt deal.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
WHEAT - 4 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up a penny on Friday in a day of choppy trade. The USDA Ag Forum put this year's corn crop production at 14.270 billion bushels using a yield of 164 bpa. If acheived, this would put corn carryout stocks at 1.6 billion bushels. That would be a big increase over the current year's carryout which is estimated at near 800 million bushels. This is keeping new crop corn prices on the defensive. On the economic front on Friday it was reported that the US consumer index was up slightly in February which was good news but on the negative side new home sales dropped in January for the first time in four months. Gasoline prices were also noted to be the highest ever for this time of year. The soybean market closed 2 cents higher on Friday on continued concerns over the South American crops. South Brazil and Paraguay remain very dry and many believe crop estimates will continue to be lowered. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum put soybean production for next year at 3.250 billion bushels using a yield of 43.9 bpa. This has the potential to lower carryout levels to near 200 million bushels which would be 75 million less than the projected carryout for this year. Weekly export sales on Friday came out at a marketing year high of 42.6 million bushels with China taking nearly half of the total. In the overnight trade corn closed down 6 cents, beans were 1/2 cent lower and wheat ended up down 4 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning on pressure from the outside markets and worries over further bailouts in the European countries.
2-24-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up a penny yesterday on the old crop but down 6 cents on new crop. Strength in the nearby futures came from strong export sales. China accounted for nearly half of these sales. The USDA Outlook Forum put the corn planting estimate at 94 million acres and with normal yields could boost carryout next year to 1.5 billion bushels or higher. Corn prices were estimated to fall to the $5 range if all these things come to fruition. The latest estimates on the Argentine corn crop are coming in at 21.3 MMT vs USDA's current estimate of 22. The soybean market closed 4 1/2 cents higher yesterday. The USDA AG Outlook Forum put the soybean acreage estimate at 75 million which is up 1 million acres from the previous estimates. Even with the higher acreage number, US carryout next year could fall to 150 to 200 million bushels. The Rosario Grain Exchange has now dropped the Argentine soybean crop to 44.5 MMT which is down 5 MMT from their last estimate and below USDA's current estimate of 48.0. Lower soybean production estimates also continue to come in for Brazil and Paraquay which will further reduce global stocks. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 cents, beans closed up a penny and wheat closed down 5 cents. Today look for the markets to open mixed in line with the overnight settlements.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 10 TO 13 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 7 O 10 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 cents higher yesterday as funds purchased nearly 12,000 contracts of corn. Strong export sales of corn to Mexico and Egypt this past week helped to rally corn prices. Good news was noted yesterday on the US economic front as the weekly jobless claims came in at the lowest level since March of 2008. This helped to rally the stock market and strengthen the outside markets. It has been reported that the Chinese plan to rebuild corn stocks and with their domestic prices relatively high, it will make US prices atrractive to them. This could be good for US exports this coming year. A shipping accident in one of Brazil's ports could also shift more corn exports to the US especially if it takes several months to repair the damage. The soybean market closed 3 cents lower on Thursday as the funds sold 3000 contracts on the day. Some private estimates released yesterday put the Brazilian soybean crop at 67 MMT and the Argentine crop at 46.5. USDA on their last report put the Brazil crop at 72 MMT and Argentina was reported at 48. Overnight there was some good rains in parts of Argentina but Southern Brazil and Paraguay remain hot and dry. The slow down at the Brazilian port at Santos is expected to last at least 30 days and will likely help the US soybean export business during that time. In the overnight trade corn closed up 5 cents, beans were 11 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed 8 1/2 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning on a weaker dollar and stronger outside markets as a result of the expected completion of the Greece debt deal on Monday.
2-16-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents lower on Wednesday after starting off the session higher. Corn quickly sold off on lack of fund interest despite forecasts calling for hot and dry conditions to continue for Brazil and Paraguay over the next 6 to 10 days. Some analysts are now thinking that the corn crop will be smaller in both Argentina and Brazil than the current USDA projections of 22 MMT and 61 respectively. Some in the trade have put Argentina's corn crop as low as 18 MMT and Brazil's crop at 51. These figures are still a long way from being verified. USDA continues to project US corn plantings at 94 million acres for the coming year which is up a little more than 2 million acres from last year. This could put next year's crop at over 14 billion bushels increasing the carryout to well over 1 billion bushels. The soybean market closed 6 cents higher yesterday as the funds purchased 5000 contracts of soybeans. Southern Hemishere weather problems have continued lower soybean production estimates in both Argentina and Brazil. This has led to stronger exports of soybeans out of US ports which could continue into spring and early summer. USDA's current estimates for Brazil's soybean production are at 72 MMT but some in the trade now feel that the actual number could come in closer to 66. The extremely hot and dry weather which continues in Southern Brazil is responsible for the lower estimate. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 1/2 cents, beans were 7 cents lower and wheat closed down a penny. Look for the markets to open lower this morning on lower outside markets and a stronger US dollar. Talks that over 100 banks in Europe could be downgaded has the markets a little nervous this morning.
2-13-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 10 TO 12 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 8 TP 9 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 5 cents on Friday on continued liquidation following the slightly negative USDA report which was released on Thursday. Adding to the negative tone was the fact that the citizens of Greece were protesting in the streets over the new Austerity measures that must be enacted as a result on the bailout program. The result of this was a stronger dollar and weaker outside markets which weighed on commodity prices on Friday. On a positive note, USDA announced the sale of 240,000 tons of corn to Egypt. There was also talk on Friday that the later planted corn in Argentina might be helped by the most recent rains. USDA had the current crop pegged at 22.0 MMT which was down from the January estimate of 26. The soybean market closed 1 1/2 cents higher on Friday on an anouncement that China had bought some beans from the US for the current marketing year. The hot and dry weather pattern which continues in Southern Brazil will likely lead to a further reduction in the soybean crop there to possibly below 70 MMT. Drying is expected to intensify across Brazil and Paraguay into early next week. In the past two weeks both regions have received less than 1 inch of rainfall. Heat is also expected to return by the end of the week. In the overnight trade corn closed 5 cents higher, beans were up 11 cents and wheat closed 8 cents higher. Look for the markets to start off higher this morning on a weaker dollar and stronger outside markets following an eventful weekend on the Greece debt front.
2-10-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 9 TO 11 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 5 1/2 cents yesterday following the USDA Supply Demand report. The report contained no big surprises. Corn carryout was put at 801 million bushels which was 45 million bushels lower than the January number. This was the result of a 50 million bushel increase in corn exports. USDA also lowered the Argentine corn crop by 4 MMT but left Brazil's corn crop unchanged at 61 MMT. The market traded a dime higher early in the session on strong jobs data and on optimistic news on the Greece debt problems. The market sold off later in the session on profit taking and on fund selling. The soybean market closed 4 cents lower on Thursday following a nuetral to slightly bearish USDA report. The soybean ending stocks came out unchanged from the January number at 275 million bushels. The Argentine soybean crop was reduced by 2.5 MMT down to 48 MMT and the Brazil soybean crop was reduced by 2 MMT. Argentina's weather is expected to turn hot and dry into next week with a chance of rain late into the weekend. Southern Brazil and Paraguay are expected to remain dry. World ending soybean stocks dropped 3.2 MMT as a result of the lower South American production totals. In the overnight trade corn closed down 4 cents, beans were 9 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 7 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning on weaker outside markets and renewed technical selling.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 12 1/2 cents higher on Thursday on some good economic news coming out of the US and Europe. Unemployment claims in the US were the lowest since April of 2008. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America had better earnings than expected. The European bond market also went very well yesterday with a lot of interest being expressed in them. This strengthened the Euro and caused the dollar to decline which is good for US exports. South korea and Mexico continue to be good buyers of US corn. The soybean market closed 13 1/2 cents higher yesterday on stronger outside markets and a weaker dollar. Soybean exports have been strong lately which could be due in part to the fact that Asia is preparing for their New Year Holiday. Concerns still remain over the Chinese economy which has been showing signs of slowing down. The recent rainy weather in Central Brazil has slowed harvest in their biggest soybean growing area of Mato Grosso. This area grows more than 1/4 of the soybeans in Brazil and the rains show no signs of letting up any time soon. This has helped to speed up the pace of exports out of the US. In the ovenight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were down 4 cents and wheat closed down a penny. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning. The dollar is slightly higher and crude oil is a little weaker early this morning.
1-19-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 10 TO 12 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 10 1/ 2 cents yesterday as the latest forecasts for South America added more precipitation for the weekend. The corn market cannot seem to shake off the bearish USDA report that was issued last Thursday. The higher production and stocks numbers caught the trade by surprise and they now feel that there will be adequate supplies of corn to get through the marketing year. The trade is also starting to think that the recent rains in Argentina have stabilized the corn crop and production losses will not be as high as previously thought. The corn market, however, has dropped about 50 cents in the past week and may be due for some recovery. The soybean market closed unchanged on Wednesday despite wetter forecasts for South America. Talk circulated in the trade yesterday that China may have some renewed interest in buying soybeans as crush margins have once again turned positve there. The trade also feels that the recent wet weather in Northern Brazil may slow harvest activity which could increase the demand for US soybeans in the near term. Some in the trade still feel that as much as 2 to 3 MMT of soybeans may be lost in Argentina due to the dryness in December and early January. In the overnight trade corn closed up 4 cents, beans were up 11 cents and wheat closed 2 1/2 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning as the outside markets are higher and the dollar is lower which should give support to commodities today.
1-16-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 8 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 17 TO 19 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 9 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 12 cents lower on Friday ahead of the long 3 day holiday weekend. Trders were evening up positions prior to the Martin Luther King holiday. The dollar was sharply higher on Friday on ideas that Standard and Poor's would lower the credit rating of a couple of countries in the European Union. This only added to the negative tone in the marketplace. On the positive side, the Argentine grain exchange lowered their corn estimate down to 21.4 MMT. Their previous estimate came in at 26 MMT which was the same as USDA's last estimate just a couple of days ago. The overnight trade was higher on forecasts for hot and dry weather to return to South America along with a weaker dollar on the Euro's strength. The soybean market closed down 24 cents on Friday on ideas that more rain was being forecast for Brazil and Argentina. There are signs that La Nina is weakening and that could allow for more rainfall for South America during February. The Rosario grain exchange in Argentina has lowered soybean production down to 49.5 MMT which is 1 MMT below USDA's latest estimate at 50.5. In the overnight trade corn closed up 8 cents, beans were 18 cents higher and wheat closed up 7 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning on stronger outside markets and a weaker dollar. One other positive bit of news out this morning was the fact that the Chinese economy grew at a faster pace than was expected in the 4th quarter.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 12 TO 14 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed unchanged yesterday after trading as much as 6 cents higher during the session. The rainfall in Argentina on Monday night was less than forecasters predicted and gave the markets a higher start. Midday forecasts added more rainfall for some of the driest areas of Argentina and caused the markets to sell off. Temperatures on Monday, however, reached 109 degrees in some of Argentina's corn growing regions. USDA will release the long awaited final crop production numbers tommorrow morning. The analysts are expecting lower corn stocks coming in at 9.391 with ending stocks at 749 million bushels vs USDA's December estimate of 848. Final corn production numbers are expected to come in at 12.265 vs the last USDA estimate at 12.310 billion bushels. The soybean market closed down 2 cents yesterday as rain began falling across Argentina on Tuesday. More rain is expected to fall today in Argentina and later this week in Brazil. After this system moves through, a return to warm and dry weather is expected for that region. Tommorrow morning USDA will be releasing the latest production and stocks estimates. Soybean production is expected to come in at 3.040 vs USDA's last estimate at 3.046. The trade is looking for ending stocks to come in at 239 million bushels vs USDA's Decenber estimate at 230. In the overnight trade corn closed down 5 1/2 cents, beans were 13 cents lower and wheat closed down 4 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning as the outside markets were putting downward pressure on grain prices early today.
1-10-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 8 1/2 cents higher on Monday after being up 19 cents during the session on hot and dry weather for South America. The midday weather forecasts added a little more rain for the dry areas of Brazil and Argentina which was responsible for the drop in prices from the highs of the day. Some crop analysts have now lowered the Argentina corn crop down to 23 mmt which is a drop of 2mmt from the previous week and Brazil's corn crop down 1 mmt to 59.0. USDA in December had these at 29 and 61 respectively. USDA will release their latest crop production estimates on Thursday morning. Average guesses came in at 12.265 vs USDA's November estimate of 12.310. The soybean market closed 36 cents higher yesterday on a combination of things. Dry weather in the southern hemisphere, strong soybean export numbers and soybean purchases believed to have been made by China yesterday all added to the bullish sentiment. South American crop analysts continue to lower crop expectations and now believe that the Argentine soybean crop might come in at 51.0 mmt - down 1 mmt from last week and the Brazil soybean crop also down 1 mmt at 72.0. USDA in December had these at 52 and 75. In the overnight trade corn closed up 1/4 cent, beans were down 1/2 cent and wheat closed down 3 cents. Look for the markets to open steady this morning in line with the overnight settlements. Outside markets are providing support with the dollar index down and the crude oil market higher.
1-9-12
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 8 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 10 TO 11 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 9 TO 11 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed unchanged on Friday as some profit taking was evident in the market place. Traders evened up positions prior to the weekend to await new weather forecasts out of South America.The latest forecasts show decreased rainfall coverage amounts through this week with the heat returning next week. Humidity levels are expected to stay low which will make it difficult for rain showers to extend much widespread coverage. USDA will release their final crop production numbers on Thursday morning. Corn crop estimates range from 12.165 to 12.375 with the average guess coming in at 12.265 billion bushels with a yield of 146.2 BPA. The average corn carryout estimate came in at 749. The soybean market closed 12 cents lower on Friday on talk of rain chances in South America. Poor export sales numbers coming in at only 10.3 million bushels also weighed on soybean prices. On Friday, Informa released their latest crop production numbers putting the 2011 soybean crop at 3.080 billion bushels. This reflects a yield of 41.8 BPA and compares to USDA's November numbers of 3.046 billion bushels with a yield of 41.3. Thursday morning USDA will update their numbers. In the overnight trade corn closed up 8 1/2 cents, beans were up 10 cents and wheat closed 10 cents higher. This morning look for the markets to open higher in line with the overnight settlements.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 5 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 18 cents higher on Monday as funds came back into the marketplace to extend some of their long positions. Hot and dry weather forecasts for South America continues to give the markets some momentum. Weekly export inspections also came out very friendly at 44 million bushels. This was above trade expectations of around 32 million bushels. It has been reported that China has started to buy corn now to rebuild their domestic supply. Some in the trade feel that corn carryout numbers could be lowered below 700 million bushels. USDA has the current corn carryout at 848 million bushels. The next USDA report will be released on January 12 th and will include these updates. The soybean market closed 7 cents higher on Monday on concerns over the South American soybean crop. Temperatures in the mid 90's and low 100's have been common in Brazil and Argentina and could pose a threat to soybean production there. Over the weekend a cool front is supposed to move across Argentina and produce some rain but many areas are not expected to receive any of this rain. In Argentina and Brazil, soybeans normally set pods during the month of January so rains could still help the crop immensly in the coming weeks. Hot and dry weather could also reduce the flowering and alter pod set. In the overnight trade corn closed up 2 1/2 cents, beans were 5 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed up 3 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
12-19-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 12 TO 13 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 16 TO 18 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents higher on Friday on continued concerns over South American weather and stronger outside markets. Parts of Brazil and Argentina are becoming extremely dry with temperatures in the upper 90's and low 100's with very limited rainfall expected there over the next couple of weeks. Informa released their acreage figures on Friday puting corn acres for 2012 at 94.39 million acres. If that number materializes then that would be an increase of 2.5 million acres over last year. Informa reduced cotton, beans and winter wheat acreages to arrive at these numbers. The cattle on feed report released Friday afternoon put December 1st placements at 104% which will be good for near term feed demand. The soybean market closed 18 cents higher on Friday as South American weather became the main driver in the soybean price rally. Informa also released their acreage estimate for soybeans coming in at 74.6 million acres. This was a drop of 1.5 million acres from the November estimates. The soybean market gained some support from short covering as traders tried to even up positions ahead of the weekend with weather forecasts calling for the hot-dry conditions to continue for another couple of weeks. In the overnight trade corn closed up 12 1/2 cents, beans were 17 cents higher and wheat closed up 8 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
12-16-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents lower yesterday and fell below the $5.80 support level for March futures. The next test of the March futures contract now drops down to $5.55. Corn export sales came out yesterday at 20 million bushels which was within traders expectations of between 16 to 24. USDA continues to hold export demand projections steady at 1.6 billion bushels. The cattle on feed report will be out this afternoon. The trade is expecting the number to come out at 103.7% of last year. If that is the case then domestic demand will show some improvement in the coming year. The final crop production report to be released in January could also give the market a boost if USDA does decide to trim another 1 to 2 BPA off of the size of the crop. The soybean market closed 12 cents higher yesterday mostly on ideas that the South American soybean crop size could be reduced if the hot dry weather continues there for another couple of weeks. Soybean exports came out at 17.2 million bushels yesterday which was within the trade expectations of between 15 to 22. The funds bought 6000 contracts of soybeans on Thursday but are still net short around 12,000 contracts. We could see some short covering support today in soybeans due to the dry scenario deveolping in Brazil and Argentina. The outside markets look supportive this morning as the dollar is weaker and equities are higher. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were 5 cents higher and wheat closed up 3 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
12-15-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 14 cents on Wednesday on a stronger US dollar and renewed concerns over the debt problems in several European countries. The euro dropped to an 11 month low yesterday against the dollar on fears that several more countries may be downgraded on their credit ratings in the next couple of weeks. This resulted in more liquidation by the funds in commodities, gold, silver and crude oil. March corn traded at it's lowest level in the past 9 months. If March corn closes below the current support level at $5.80, the next level of support would drop to $5.55. Concerns over South American weather or an improvement in the Euro debit crisis could help to hold the current support level above $5.80. The soybean market closed 18 1/2 cents lower yesterday on renewed fund selling in light of weaker outside markets and renewed concerns in Europe. NOPA's November crush number came out at 141.3 million bushels which was below the trade estimate of 142.4. Weak soybean meal demand could lead to higher soybean carryout numbers on future reports. South American weather continues to become a concern to the trade and will be monitored closely. Current forecasts have very little rain for the dry areas of Southern Brazil and Northern Argentina for the next two weeks. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 90's and even 100's this weekend. In the overnight trade corn closed unchanged, beans were up 8 cents and wheat closed up 3 cents. Look for the grain markets to open steady to slightly higher in line with the overnight settlements.
12-14-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 4 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 1/2 cent higher on Tuesday in a day of light trading. The dollar index was slightly higher yesterday and crude oil traded 2 dollars higher. Not to much news to report yesterday only that the dryness in Brazil and Argentina continues. Some light showers are forecast for early next week but that is still subject to change. Morgan Stanley yesterday lowered commodity price forecasts for this year and next year due to larger world supplies. The March corn contract still has support at $5.80 and resistance comes in at $6.12. The soybean market closed 6 1/2 cents higher on Tuesday as South American weather continues dry and helped to support bean prices. NOPA will be releasing their soybean crush numbers today with most in the trade looking for lower numbers than last year. Chinese crush margins continue to be negative which does not help support the US export program. Year to date soybean exports are down 33% from last year with most of this the result of decreases of sales to China. Funds continue to shy away from putting new money into commodities at least for the present time. In the overnight trade corn closed down a penny, beans were 4 cents lower and wheat closed down a penny. Look for the markets to open lower in line with the overnight settlements.
12-13-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT- 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed unchanged yesterday as weaker outside markets and a stronger dollar kept grain prices in check. Lack of any big optimistic news out of the European Summit over the weekend on the Euro debt crisis weighed negatively on the markets. Weekly export inpections came in a little better than expected yesterday at 35.7 million bushels. As of December 1st, total export committments are down 3% from last year. Ohio is still harvesting corn and is currently around 82% finished. The colder weather has allowed farmers to get back into the fields as wet conditions have limited their harvesting ability this fall. There is talk that the corn yields on the January report may be lowered by as much as 1 bushel per acre and this continues to offer some support to corn prices. The soybean market closed 5 cents higher yesterday as traders became increasingly concerned about South American weather forecasts. Parts of Brazil and Argentina have remained very dry and current forecasts do not show much signs of relief. The crops in some of these areas are starting to show signs of stress and forecasts will be monitored closely in these regions in the days ahead. NOPA will release the November soybean crush report on Wednesday with most in the trade thinking the crush numbers will come in between 146 to 147 million bushels vs 148.9 from last year. Soybean exports came in at 29.7 million bushels yesterday which was at the low end of expectations. In the overnight trade corn closed up 3 cents, beans were 2 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed up 4 cents. Look for the grain markets to open slightly higher this morning on support from the outside markets.
12-12-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 6 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 5 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 4 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 cents lower on Friday after USDA released their latest supply demand report. Corn carryout was raised by 5 million bushels from 843 million bushels on the November report up to 848 in December. USDA also increased world corn production by 8.5 MMT mostly as a result of the increase in the Chinese production. No changes were made in the US production as those numbers won't be released until the January report. On an optimistic note, corn ethanol production hit a record high last week and if the trend continues ethanol usage could consume 5.2 billion bushels of corn for the year. Corn exports also were strong this past week. The soybean market closed down 24 cents on Friday following the report. The soybean carryout surprised the trade by being 35 million bushels higher than the November estimate. The soybean carryout jumped from 195 million bushels in November to 230 million bushels on the December report. Both exports and crush were lowered on the report. Exports decreased by 25 million bushels down to 1.3 billion bushels and the crush was lowered by 10 million bushels to 1.625 billion bushels. World production numbers were left unchanged as both Brazil and Argentina's production numbers remained unchanged. In the overnight trade corn closed down 7 cents, beans were 6 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 5 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning on pressure from the outside markets.
9-8-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 5 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 4 cents on Wednesday as funds remain reluctant to put money into commodities due to economic uncertanties in Europe. The EU summit begins on Friday with leaders trying to find a resolution to the debt problems they are facing in several European countries. USDA will release their supply-demand numbers on Friday morning. Crop production numbers will not change until the January report but USDA is expected to lower the carryover by 10 to 20 million bushels. USDA had the carryover at 843 million bushels on the November report. Ethanol production set a new record this past week and is currently 5% higher than last year. The ethanol grind is expected to reach 5.2 billion bushels this year. The soybean market closed 1 1/2 cents higher on Wednesday on continued dry forecasts for key soybean growing areas in Brazil. Souh America experienced a drier than normal November with concerns that the ongoing La Nina could strenthen into the winter months worsening the dry conditions there. Soybean export sales came in a little better than expected this morning at 29.2 million bushels. The trade was expecting soybean sales to come in between 20 to 24 million bushels. China was the leading buyer this week. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 cents, beans were 2 cents lower and wheat closed down 5 cents. Look for the markets to open slightly lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 4 cents yesterday after opening higher on optimism over talks between France and Germany to resolve the EU debt problems. That good news was quickly overshadowed by news that Informa had increased yields on the Chinese corn crop for both 2011 and 2012 increasing production by 7.25 MMT and 5.5 MMT respectively. Informa also raised world corn stocks for 2011 up to 868 MMT. This compares to USDA's November number of 859. This is likely to cause a reduction in US corn exports and increase corn carryout numbers. On Friday, USDA will release their latest supply demand estimates. The soybean market closed 9 1/2 cents lower on Monday after opening in positive territory. Standard and Poors released a statement yesterday that put 6 European countries on credit alert giving them a 50% chance of credit downgrade within 90 days. Germany and France were both included on this list. This caused the dollar to strengthen and bring down commodity prices. Soybean demand also remains very poor. Soybean inspections are currently at 67% of last year and crush margins have been slightly negative. On Friday's report, we could see a drop in both exports and crush resulting in a carryout of over 200 million bushels. In the overnight trade corn closed down 9 cents per bushel, beans were 3 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 9 cents. Today look for the markets to open lower in line with the overnight trade.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 4 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 cents lower on Friday as talk circulated in the trade that China's corn crop is now expected to be larger than earlier thought. Some believe that it could be 300 million bushels higher than earlier forecast. This might lead to a reduction in corn imports by China for next year and a weaker demand for US corn. The overall corn supply situation, however, remains fairly tight this year with carryout currently porjected at 843 million bushels. Some in the trade feel that it could drop even lower. Keeping downward pressure on the markets, however, has been the talk that we could see 94 or more million acres planted to corn next year. That could boost carryout numbers to sharply higher levels in the 2011-12 crop year. The soybean market closed 8 cents higher on Friday despite a stronger US dollar index. The dollar got a boost from the latet unemployment data coming in at 8.6% which was the lowest in nearly two years. Noncommercial buying gave the soybean market some support on Friday along with a drier weather forecast for South America over the next couple of weeks. Brazil is getting close to finishing planting soybeans while Argentina is just over half done. In the overnight trade corn closed up 3 1/2 cents, beans were 8 cents higher and wheat closed up a penny. Increasing confidence in the resolution to the European debt problems is strengthening equities and the stock market and lowering the US dollar index. Look for the grain markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight trade.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 9 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 6 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents higher yesterday after opening much stronger on higher outside markets and a lower dollar. The market rallied on ideas that a better plan was in the works to bailout Greece. The plan talked about reducing their debt by 1/2 while pumping money into the Greek economy. The plan is to be voted on Thursday by Germany. USDA will release their September 1st grain stocks on Friday morning. The trade is estimating corn stocks to come in around 964 million bushels. Recent rains have slowed down harvest progress in the Midwest but improving conditions are expected over the next 6 to 10 days. On Monday's report, only 15% of the nations corn crop had been harvested compared with 26% last year. The soybean market closed up 3 cents on Monday following higher crude oil prices, stocks and financials. Funds bought an estimated 3000 contracts of soybeans on Tuesday and are long 110,500 bean contracts. USDA will estimate September 1st soybean stocks on Friday with the average trade guess coming in at 224 million bushels. The ranges fall between 202 to 240. The last USDA report on September 12th had stocks at 225. Recent rains have slowed down harvest the last couple of days but as soon as the weather straightens out more aggressive soybean harvesting will take place especially in Illinois. Indiana and Ohio will be behind by a couple of weeks due to the late planting there. In the overnight trade corn closed down 7 cents, beans were 9 cents lower and wheat closed down 7 cents. Look for the markets to start off lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
9-27-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 13 TO 15 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 13 TO 15 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 11 TO 15 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 1/2 cents higher on Monday on higher equity markets and outside markets as conditions looked better for a resolution to the debt crisis in Greece. This sparked some buying interest in commodities. Weekly exports came in at 34.3 million bushels which was the highest we have seen in a long time. The weekly crop progress report showed a 1% improvement in the corn crop from the previous week. US harvest progress showed that 15% of the corn crop has been harvested nationwide compared with 26% last year and 16% on average. On Friday, USDA will release the September 1st stock numbers. The trade is looking for corn stocks to fall between 900 million to 1.0 billion bushels. The soybean market closed 2 cents higher on strength from the corn and wheat markets. Exports came in at a disappointing 7.4 million bushels which was well below the 27 million bushels needed weekly to meet USDA demand projections. The soybean crop condition report released Monday afternoon kept the soybean rating unchanged from last week at 53% good to excellent. The US soybean crop now stands at 5% harvested compared with 15% last year and 11% on average. Rains have been falling across the eastern Midwest over the past couple of days and is expected to continue through Thursday, delaying harvest there. Harvest, however, is expected to continue in the Delta and western cornbelt throughout the coming week. In the overnight trade corn, beans and wheat all closed 14 1/2 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
9-26-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 11 1/2 cents on Friday as liquidation continued for another day in the grain markets. December futures peaked out at $7.79 and has since traded to a low of $6.30. That's a drop of nearly $1.50 per bushel in just a couple of weeks. The fear of another global economic down turn has caused panic in the equities and financial markets and has spilled over into the commodities markets. Nothing fundamentally has changed in the grain markets and USDA has continued to lower corn yields on the last couple of reports. Yields in Illinois have ranged from 100 to 200 bushels per acre with corn following beans yielding the highest. The soybean market closed down 25 cents on Friday with concern over the Greek financial crisis again causing havoc in the markets. Crude oil was down sharply along with gold and the other outside markets. USDA did make an annoucement that China bought 126,000 mt of US soybeans for the next marketing year. This, however, was not enough to turn the soybean market around. The trade is looking for more sales to be made to China in the near future as the US has now become more competitive in the world market. Early yield reports continue to come in better than expected in many areas. In the overnight trade corn closed up 5 cents, beans were down 8 cents and wheat closed 2 cents higher. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning with better chances for a resolution to the Greece problems offering some support.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 17 TO 20 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 21 TO 25 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 13 TO 19 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents lower yesterday in a day of light fund selling. The sharp losses in the soybean market exerted downward pressure on the corn market. Weaker outside makets also aided in the losses. Early yield reports out of Illinois and Iowa are continuing to come in a little better than expected. The short term trend on corn prices is lower but the longer term supply situation should limit the downside. This morning the grain markets are off sharply due to lower equity markets and a much stronger dollar. The soybean market closed 17 1/2 cents lower on Wednesday. Funds sold nearly 10,000 contracts on the day but are still long around 130,000 contracts. Harvest is just getting underway and early yield reports vary but overall tend to be a little better than expected. In the last report, USDA put the US soybean yield at 41.8 bpa which was slightly higher than the previous month. Last year the US soybean yield ended up at 43.5. The recent frost may lower soybean yields even futher this year. The trade seems to think that we could see a futher drop in the national yield by as much as 1.5 bpa due to possible frost damage in parts of Minnesota, Iowa and the Dakota's. Time will have to bear this out. In the overnight trade corn closed down 22 cents, beans were 30 cents lower and wheat closed down 22 cents. Look for the markets to open lower in line with the overnight values due to lower equity markets and a much stronger dollar.
9-20-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 8 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 9 cents on Friday and ended the week 51 cents lower. Early yield reports continue to come in better than expected in many areas. Keep in mind that much of the corn being harvested now is the early planted corn and it remains to be seen how the later planted corn will yield. Demand, however, continues to remain weak at these higher price levels. Some rain fell across the corn belt over the weekend. Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois received up to .5 inches of rain late Saturday and into Sunday. Weather forecasts look favorable for harvest over the next 10 days only to be interrupted by some possible showers later in the week. The soybean market closed down 3 cents on Friday as liquidation continued in the grain markets. The frost last week was shrugged off by the trade and virtually had no impact on the markets. The crop condition report will be interesting this afternoon and could show some deterioration in the crop in areas that were affected by the frost. A few of the early yield reports on soybeans have showed good results but it is still very early in harvest and many areas haven't even started combining beans yet. In the overnight trade corn closed down 7 1/2 cents, beans were 8 cents lower and wheat closed down 7 1/2 cents. This morning look for the markets to start off lower in line with the overnight trade and then take direction from the outside markets.
9-14-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 22 1/2 cents on Tuesday in a day of further fund liquidation. Early yield reports continue to come in a little better than expected. This along with a bleak demand picture was responsible for yesterday's selloff. Many countries are substituting wheat for corn in their feed rations to keep costs down. Corn exports this past week came in at only 16 million bushels compared to the past two year's of nearly 45. Corn harvest is proceeding along in Central Illinois with nearly 1/3 of the corn now harvested in the Decatur area. From Bloomington north , however, not much harvest activity has been reported yet. The soybean market closed down 4 cents yesterday despite talks of frost across the northern states over the next couple of mornings. Talk surfaced yesterday that temperatures below 32 degrees could be seen in parts of Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and both North and South Dakota. I quess the trade is taking a wait and see attitude at least for right now. Last night's low temperatures did not cause any problems in the upper Midwest but the lows tonight might be a different story. It has been estimated that up to 30% of the corn and soybean area could be affected by some frost tonight. We will have to see what develops from this. In the overnight trade corn closed down 4 1/2 cents, beans were 5 cents lower and wheat closed up 3 cents. Look for the markets to start off lower this morning but will likely be well supported at any lower levels. We could see a rally into the close if current temperature projections hold up for tonight.
9-13-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 6 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 6 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 cents higher on Monday after USDA released their latest supply demand report. USDA lowered corn production down to 12.497 billion bushels which was down from the August number at 12.914. The corn yield dropped to 148.1 bpa down 4.9 from the August report. Total corn production was lowered by 417 million bushels but demand was also down by 400 million. Exports were reduced by 100 million, feed was lowered by 200 million and ethanol showed a reduction of 100 million bushels. Ending stocks for 2010-11 decreased by 20 million bushels down to 920 and stocks for 2011-12 decreased by 42 coming in at 672. The report was deemed as slightly bullish for corn. The greece debt problems resurfaced again yesterday and were responsible for keeping corn prices lower early in the trading session on Monday morning. The soybean market closed 31 cents lower yesterday following a slightly negative USDA report for soybeans. Soybean production was up by 29 million bushels yesterday putting total production at 3.085 billion bushels. Soybean yields were raised to 41.8 bpa. The trade was expecting production to come in at 3.025 with the yield around 41.0 bpa. The trade pretty much dismissed ideas of possible frost later on in the week. The soybean crops in the Dakota's, Wisconsin and Minnesota would still be vulnerable if a frost would hit this early in the season. We will have to see how this plays out later this week. In the overnight trade corn closed down 5 cents, beans were down 6 cents and wheat closed down 5 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements and then spend time trading on both sides of the close.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 3 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 8 cents lower on Wednesday as profit taking took over in the marketplace after a higher opening. Funds sold an estimated 8000 contracts of corn yesterday. High prices for corn seems to be rationing demand as feeders continue to substitute wheat for corn in many rations. Poultry and cattle numbers are both on the decline as export demand has been dropping. Corn sales this past month have been the lowest in the past 12 years so the market seems to be doing its job of rationing the supply. Early yield reports on corn seem to be coming in a little better than expected but keep in mind that these are coming form the corn planted in April. Many feel that these will be the best yields in the places that received no rain in July and August. The soybean market closed two cents lower on Wednesday after trading nearly 20 cents higher shortly after the open. The market continues to show signs of demand destruction as both exports and crush continue to lose ground. Usda will release their latest supply demand report on Monday Sept. 12th. The average guess for soybean production comes in at 3.025 billion bushels with a yield of 41 bpa. Last month USDA had the bean production at 3.056 with a yield of 41.4. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 cents, beans were 8 cents lower and wheat closed down 4 cents. Look for the markets to open steady to lower with prices expected to be well supported on any setbacks.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 9 TO 13 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents higher on Monday following the Pro Farmer Tour results which showed a corn yield of 147.9 bushels per acre bringing total corn production to 12.48 billion bushels. The big surge in prices came on Friday as the trade was expecting the lower numbers and heavy fund buying was prevalent. The market will continue to ration the supply in the weeks ahead. Some in the trade now look at 8 dollar corn as the next price target. Yesterday afternoon USDA released the crop condition report which lowered the corn condition by 3% down to 54% good to excellent. The trade was looking for a drop of 1 to 2%. The weekly export report came in below expectations at 27.3 million bushels showing that demand is being rationed by the higher prices. The soybean market closed 23 cents higher yesterday on a day of strong fund buying. The trade is still concerned that the lack of rain across many areas of the Midwest and South could reduce soybean yields possibly below 40 bpa nationwide. USDA lowered the soybean crop condition by another 2% down to 57% good to excellent. Illinois dropped 5% and Iowa was down 2% on yesterday's report. The Pro Farmer Tour reported the soybean crop estimate at 3.08 billion bushels with the national yield figured at 41.8 bpa on Friday. Those numbers came in slightly above the last USDA figures. In the overnight trade corn closed down 9 cents, beans were 8 cents lower and wheat closed down 9 1/2 cents. Today look for the markets to open in line with the overnight trade.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 13 TO 15 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 10 TO 12 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 12 cents higher on Friday despite weaker outside markets. Traders are growing increasingly concerned about the size of this year's crop. The Pro Farmer Tour will begin this week starting today and will begin giving their estimates on yields across the Midwest. Many are looking for sub-par yields due to the warm temperatures experienced during the month of July. The warm and dry pattern has continued across portions of the Midwest and southern states. This afternoon USDA will release the crop condition report report which could show further deterioration in the crop. Many in the trade are looking for a 1 to 2 % drop in the corn rating. Lower ratings are expected in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Nebraska. The soybean market closed 8 cents higher on Friday as traders added to their long positions. Traders grew more bullish on ideas that yields may be further reduced as dry weather continues across much of the Midwest. Some analysts have lowered their soybean crop estimates below the USDA August estimates. Some in the trade are expecting to see a decline in today's soybean crop condition report by 2 to 3 %. Declines are expected in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Minnesota. In the overnight trade corn closed up 9 cents, beans were up 14 cents and wheat closed 12 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning on the strength of the overnight trade. Stronger outside markets should also offer support today.
8-19-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - STEADY TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT- 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn fuures closed down 12 1/2 cents on Thursday after some negative economic news out of the US and more problems surfaced over the debt crisis in the European Union. The stock market was down over 500 points yesterday and the dollar was sharply lower. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour will start next week and will give the trade a better idea on corn and soybean yields across the Midwest. This could create some volatility in the markets next week as yield reports come in. Some rain was noted across Nebraska and Missouri overnight and is in Southern Illinois this morning. Central Illinois has missed the bulk of this rain. The soybean market closed down 6 cents on Thursday as poor economic news around the globe put downward pressure on commodity prices. The market, however, still remains concerned over lower acreage reports and yields that continue to drop. A large portion of the soybean growing areas in the US are still short on moisture and will continue to lower yields unless rains fall soon in the extremely dry areas. Funds sold 4000 contracts of soybeans on Thursday and now hold a net long position of 69,000 contracts. In the overnight trade corn closed up 3 1/2 cents, beans were 2 cents higher and wheat closed up 3 cents. Today look for the markets to open slightly higher in line with the overnight settlements. Despite negative outside markets, support today could come from commercial buying and bullish fundamentals.
8-17-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents higher on Tuesday on ideas that USDA may be overstating harvested acreage by as much as 1.7 million acres. USDA had corn harvested acreage at 84.357 million and FAS suggests that corn harvested acreage may be more like 82.6 million. This would put corn production well below the 12.9 billion bushels projected by USDA especially if yields also turn out to be less than the current 153 bushel per acre estimates. Some privae analysts are projecting corn yields down around 150 bpa. It may be harder to get a handle on yields this year as big variations are expected from field to field as high temperatures and lack of moisture are expected to take it's toll this year. The soybean market closed 3 1/2 cents lower on Tuesday as weaker outside markets weighed on soybean prices. Weather forecasts were mixed yesterday with some models calling for warmer and drier conditions while others were adding more rain and a trend toward cooler temperatures. The weekly crop ratings still put the soybean crop condition at 61% good to excellent. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the trade as to what the harvested acres and final yields will actually be. This will keep some volatility in the markets through the harvest season. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were up 6 cents and wheat closed 4 1/2 cents higher. Today look for the markets to open higher in line with the overnight settlements.
8-15-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 9 TO 11 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 9 TO 11 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down a penny on Friday in a day of slow trading following the USDA report on Thursday morning. USDA estimated corn production at 12.9 billion bushels which was below the average trade guess of 13.1. USDA reduced the corn yield to 153 bushels per acre from the 158.7 estimated last month. A story was floating around over the weekend suggesting that Mexico may need to import a record 12.1 MMT of corn due to a domestic production shortfall. Last year Mexico imported only 8.9 MMT. The latest weather forecasts call for normal to above normal temperatures with normal to below normal precipitation for the next 10 days across the Midwest. The soybean market closed up 3 cents on Friday after a very bullish report on Thursday. USDA lowered the soybean yield by 2 bushels per acre down to 41.4 from the previous month's estimate of 43.4. Soybean production was estimated at 3.056 billion bushels which was below the July estimate of 3.225. USDA did lower planted acreage by 200,000 acres and harvested acres were lowered by 1/2 million. This afternoon USDA will release the latest crop condition report. Weekend rains did not fall in the dry areas of the Midwest so many feel that crop production numbers could be lower again today. In the overnight trade corn closed up 4 cents, beans were 10 cents higher and wheat closed up a dime. This morning look for the markets to open higher in line with the overnight trade.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 9 TO 11 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 15 TO 17 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 12 TO 18 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher on Tuesday as funds purchased nearly 10,000 contracts of corn on the day. The outside markets lacked a general sense of direction yesterday as the stock market was lower and then ended sharply higher. Tommorrow morning USDA will be out with their supply-demand report. The average estimate for corn production came in at 13.08 billion bushels. Average guesses on corn yield fall around 155 bushels per acre. Some in the trade feel that yields will come in below this level. The latest weather forecasts increase rain chances for next week across the corn belt with a trend toward warmer temperatures. The soybean market closed 12 cents lower on Tuesday as funds continued to liquidate positions prior to the report on Thursday morning. Soybean estimates for the August 11th USDA report came in with the yield at 42.8 bushels per acre. This is slightly lower than USDA's July estimate at 43.4. A 1% improvement in the soybean crop conditions shows that the recent rains have helped the soybean crop in some areas. Midwest weather forecasts have added a few more chances for rainfall across the region for next week. July rainfall was well below normal across most states in the Midwest causing crop conditions to deteriorate during the month. If August rains don't materialize then some weather premium will have to be added back. In the overnight trade corn closed up 10 cents, beans were 16 cents higher and wheat closed up 18 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
8-9-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 18 cents on Monday as Standard and Poors downgraded the US credit rating down to a AA+ from a AAA. This caused the stock market to drop over 600 points and crude oil was down more than $6 per barrel. USDA will be out with their crop production numbers on Thursday. Some in the trade are expecting a drop in corn stocks by 200 million bushels and a reduction in yield by 3 to 4 bushels per acre. Yesterday afternoon USDA dropped the corn crop condition by 2 percentage points down to 60% good to excellent. The 5 year average is 64% and last year the corn crop was rated 71% good to excellent. The biggest drops came in Illinois, Missouri and Iowa at 2 to 3% lower and Ohio at a 4% drop. The soybean market closed 24 1/2 cents lower on Monday as traders liquidated positions on lower equities markets and sharply lower crude oil prices. The US soybean crop condition actually improved by 1% on yesterday afternoon's report and is now rated at 61% good to excellent. Last year the crop was rated 66% good to excellent. On the August 11th report, the average estimate for the soybean crop comes in at 3.174 billion bushels with the average yield at 42.8 bushels per acre. Some scattered rain showers were forecast across the Midwest with cooler temperatures arriving for the remainder of the week. The warm and dry nweather is expected to persist in the southern areas for most of the week. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were up 2 1/2 cents and wheat closed 2 cents higher. Look for the markets to start off higher this morning and then take direction from the outside markets.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 11 TO 13 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 14 TO 16 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 8 TO 13 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 5 cents on Wednesday as cooler temperatures and a little more precipitation was added to the forecast across the Midwest over the next 10 days. Some analysts have been estimating yield data prior to the government's August 11th report. The Linn group estimated corn yields at 152.1 bushels per acre putting corn production at 12.775 billion bushels. USDA's last report put the average yield for corn at 158.7 with total production at 13.47 billion bushels. Hot and dry weather across the Midwest and plains states in July, however, will lower these July numbers by the USDA. FC Stone also released their production numbers coming in at 13.002 billion bushels with a yield of 153.2. The soybean market closed 9 cents lower on Wednesday on profit taking as traders reacted to better weather forecasts, lower outside markets and poor export demand. One analyst yesterday estimated the 2012 Argentine soybean crop at 53 million tons which is 3.8 million tons higher than the previous year. The Brazilian soybean crop for 2012 was estimated at 73.5 million tons which is down 1.5 million from 2011. The Linn Group estimated the 2011 US soybean crop at 3.148 billion bushels with an average yield of 43.0 bpa. USDA's July estimate came in at 3.225 billion bushels with a yield of 43.4 bpa. In the overnight trade corn closed down 11 cents, beans were down 14 1/2 cents and wheat closed down 12 1/2 cents. Today look for the markets to open lower in line with the overnight settlements.
8-3-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 16 cents higher on Monday as a resolution to the debt ceiling problems seemed to be in the works. The two house still have to pass the documents but they feel confident that there is enough votes to get it done. The outside markets were stronger yesterday as a result of this progress. In the meantime the trade still continues to worry about the hot temperatures during the pollination phase and some feel that the crop has been hurt because of this. Yesterday afternoon the crop condition report showed no change from the previous week coming in at 62% good to excellent. Some in the trade are questioning this as 4 of the top 5 states were down 3 to 6% each. Some feel that there may be a downward correction to this. The soybean market closed 5 cents higher on Monday as many areas in the southern Midwest have missed the recent rains and could dramatically reduce the crop size there if drought like conditions continue. Recent weather forecasts keep temperatures in the 90's with little rain expected in the driest soybean areas. The soybean crop rating dropped 2 percentage points yesterday afternoon down to 60% good to excellent. States with the biggest drops included Illinois and Nebraska at 2%, Missouri at 5%, and South Dakota at 8%. Continued triple digit heat across much of the southern belt is believed to have resulted in significant yield loss already. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 1/2 cents, beans were unchanged and wheat closed down 1 1/2 cents. This morning look for the markets to open in line with the overnight settlements but then find support on any lower prices.
8-1-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 13 TO 15 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 12 TO 16 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 17 cents lower on Friday as traders continued to liquidate their long positions. Concerns over the debt ceiling deadline weighed on prices as lawmakers could not come to any agreement during the past week. This afternoon USDA be out with their latest crop condition report. The trade is looking for the corn ratings to fall between 61 to 63% good to excellent. Last week the nation's corn crop was rated 62% good to excellent. Over the weekend, a so called agreement has been reached to raise the debt ceiling and lower the federal deficit. The new agreement is said to raise the ceiling by 2.4 trillion dollars in several stages and also reduce spending by 900 billion dollars over the next decade. The markets across the globe have reacted favorably to the news this morning. The soybean market closed 13 1/2 cents lower on Friday as traders went into the weekend ligthening up their positions. Recent rains will help the soybean crop. Last week the soybean crop was rated 62% good to excellent. Some in the trade feel that this week USDA may raise the soybean crop rating slightly. Some in the trade now feel that China will only need to import 3.2 MMT of of soybeans in August which would be a reduction of 34% from last year. Soybean imports in July were expected to come in at nearly 5MMT. In the overnight trade corn closed up 9 cents, beans were 14 cents higher and wheat closed up 12 cents. This morning look for the markets to open higher in line with the overnight settlements. Stronger outside markets should help to support grain prices throughout the day.
7-27-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
WHEAT - 2 CENTS LOWER TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 11 cents higher on Tuesday following the drop in the corn condition rating by 4 percentage points on Monday afternoon's report. The latest weather forecasts continue to call for above normal temperatures for most of the Midwest for the next couple of weeks. The trade remains concerned over the fact that hot days and warm nights are not conducive to bumper yields. This summer has featured several days with 100 degree daytime highs with lows in the 80's. July will likely go down as one of the hottest since 1983. Current forecasts have added some rainfall across the Midwest over the next couple of days. This should increase the corn crop ratings for next week in some states. The soybean market closed 17 cents higher on Tuesday as the soybean crop showed some deterioration over the past week. A 2 percentage point drop was noted on Monday afternoon's report. The states that were hardest hit including Kansas and Missouri missed the rains over the past weekend. Some improvement may be noted in Indiana and Ohio this week as some rains have fallen there. Weather in the month of August will be very important to the soybean crop as yields are generally determined by weather conditions during that month. In the overnight trade corn closed down 6 cents, beans were 1/2 cent lower and wheat closed down 1 1/2 cents. Today look for the markets to start off lower and then take direction from the latest weather forecasts and outside markets.
7-26-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 11 cents lower on Monday as better than expected rains across the Midwest coupled with the fact that no progress has been made on the debt ceiling worked in combination to lower grain prices yesterday. The latest weather forecasts showed a stretch of cooler temperatures along with some more chances of rain across the Midwest over the next couple of days. USDA released their crop condition report yesterday lowering the corn condition report by 4 points down to 62% good to excellent. The biggest declines were noted in Indiana, Ohio, Kansas and Missouri. The rains in the upper Midwest will slow the crop deterioration there but declines could continue in the southern and western regions of the US. The soybean market closed down 15 cents yesterday as weekend rains and weaker outside markets pressured prices lower. Soybean exports were also dissappointing yesterday coming in at only 5.2 million bushels for the week ending July 21st. The trade was expecting a number between 5 to 10 million bushels. The soybean crop condition report released yesterday afternoon showed a drop of 2% last week coming in at 62% good to excellent. Last year the bean crop was rated at 67% good to excellent. The biggest declines were noted in Kansas, Missouri, and Indiana and Ohio. In the overnight trade corn closed up 3 cents, beans were 7 cents higher and wheat closed up 4 cents. This morning look for the markets to open higher in line with the overnight settlements and trade higher for much of the day based on the lower crop condition reports released yesterday afternoon.
7-25-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 9 TO 13 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 3 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 11 cents higher on Friday after opening in lower territory. The corn market rallied Friday on ideas that hot weather would return to the Midwest and that high temps over the past two weeks had already damaged the corn crop in some areas. Some in the trade now believe that the national corn yield may be lowered by as much as 5 bushels per acre. Goldman Sachs dropped their estimate by 3 bpa down to 156 bpa on Friday. Another estimate came in at 153.6 bpa. USDA's current estimate still remains at 158.7. Friday afternoon the cattle on feed report came out with June placements at 104%. This afternoon the crop condition ratings will be out and the trade is expecting to see a drop of between 3 to 5 % in the corn crop condition. The soybean market closed unchanged on Friday as traders felt that the recent rains across the upper Midwest would help the soybean crop. Some in the trade, however, believe that damage has already been done. One estimate on Friday put the national soybean yield at only 41.3 bushels per acre. USDA's current estimate is at 43.4. The Argentine Ag Ministry lowered the total estimate of soybean production by 800,000 tons from previous estimates. They now put the total Argentine soybean production at 48.8 million tons. This helped to pull soybeans up a little on the close on Friday.In the overnight trade corn closed down 8 cents, beans were 10 cents lower and wheat closed down 7 cents. Today look for the markets to open lower in line with the overnight settlements but setbacks should be limited by expectations of lower crop ratings on this afternoon's reports.
7-22-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 cents lower on Thursday as the latest weather forecasts added more rain for Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin over the coming weekend. Cooler temperatures will also accompany the rain. This was enough to drop corn prices almost a dime yesterday. Export demand continues to be slow with old crop sales coming in at 16.9 million bushels yesterday and new crop at 18.6. The trade will have to deal with the question as to how much damage may have already been done to the corn crop as a result of the recent heat wave across the Midwest. This should help to limit the downside risk in the coming weeks barring any unforseen economic problems. The soybean market closed 2 cents higher on Thursday as the outside markets helped to support bean prices. The dollar was sharply lower and crude oil rallied. Soybean export sales came in better than expected at 9.4 million bushels for old crop and 6.9 million bushels for new crop. Export demand has been very slow this summer as Chinese bean imports were down over 30% for the month of June over last year's numbers. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 cents, beans were 4 cents lower and wheat closed down 3 cents. Look for the markets to start off lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements as some much needed rain is falling over portions of the northern Midwest.
7-21-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 10 cents lower on Wednesday as the latest weather forecasts added a little more rain and more moderating temperatures into the weekend. The corn crop is now in the critical pollinating phase and requires more precipitation and cooler temperatures than what were are currently getting. July temperatures could go down as the warmest since 1983 in the key growing states of Illinois, Iowa and Indiana.This past Monday the corn crop rating dropped 3 percentage points down to 66% good to excellent. The Midwest is in dire need of rainfall this week and without it additional yield loss will occur. Look for the crop condition report to show further deterioration on next Monday's report. The soybean market closed a penny lower yesterday as stronger outside markets limited the downside. Monday afternoon's crop condition report dropped 2% from the previous week and is now rated 64% good to excellent. Last year the soybean crop was rated 67% good to excellent. Export inspections came in at only 3.7 million bushels on Monday which was lower than expected. There was some talk in the trade this week that China may have lifted their price controls on edible oils. The trade will be looking for confirmation of this in the coming weeks. In the overnight trade corn closed down 5 1/2 cents, beans were up 2 cents and wheat closed down 1/2 cent. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents lower on Wednesday after the USDA reported some improvement in the crop ratings on Tuesday afternoon. Also adding to the negative tone was the fact that China raised their lending rate by another quarter percent in an effort to slow their economic growth. The latest weather forecasts are calling for warm temperatures with slightly below average rainfall over the next one to two weeks across the Midwest. The warm temperatures will allow the growing degree units to catch up and help to move the maturation of the crop along. Rumors continue to circulate in the trade of Chinese corn purchases ranging from 5 to 8 MMT. The trade will be awaiting confirmation of this in the next couple of weeks. On Tuesday July 12th, USDA will release their latest crop production numbers and yield estimates. The soybean market closed unchanged yesterday. USDA did report a slight improvement in the soybean crop condition on Tuesday afternoon. This resulted in a lower opening but then the market was supported by some light fund buying. Weather forecasts still look mostly favorable however the trade will be watching for the development of a possible high pressure ridge setting up over the Western Corn belt in the next couple of weeks. In the overnight trade corn closed up 6 cents, beans were 4 cents higher and wheat closed down 4 cents. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning with corn and beans higher and wheat a little lower. Look for prices to be well supported on any and all setbacks.
7-6-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 12 TO 17 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 11 TO 14 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 17 TO 22 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 41 cents on Friday in another day of heavy fund liquidation. The market reaction was still in relation to the extremely bearish report issued by the USDA on Thursday. Despite the negative reaction to the report, USDA announced the sale of 1.1 million metric tons of corn to unknown destinations. Most in the trade believe this to be China. The lower prices seem to be improving demand. Some in the trade think that China may have locked in as much as 2.5 MMT of corn last week. Warm and dry weather is expected across the Midwest for much of this week. Better chances of rain are forecast for next week. The crop condition report this afternoon is expected to remain unchanged from last week at 69% good to excellent. The soybean market closed 13 cents higher on Friday as traders began to digest the reports on Thursday. The USDA acreage estimate for soybeans came in at 1.2 million acres lower than anticipated. Funds bought around 6000 contracts of soybeans on Friday giving the market a boost. The trade is looking for export inspections to come out between 7 to 12 million bushels for soybeans. The crop condition report this afternoon is expected to come in unchanged from last week at 66% good to excellent. In the overnight trade corn closed 14 cents higher, beans were up 13 cents and wheat closed 21 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning and then take direction from the outside markets and the latest weather forecasts.
7-1-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 35 TO 45 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 69 cents lower on the July futures contracts and down the 30 cent limit on all of the forward months. The release of the USDA stocks and acreage report was responsible for the limit down move. The corn acreage number came out at 92.3 million which was higher than the March 31st estimate of 92.2 and higher than the average trade guess at 90.8. Acreage increases were noted in the states of Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Nebraska reported an increase over last year of 850,000 corn acres, Iowa with 800,000 more acres, South Dakota up 650,000 and Minnesota with an increase of 400,000 acres. June 1st corn stocks also surprised traders by coming in at 3.670 billion bushels which was 368 million more than expected. The soybean market closed down 28 cents on a USDA report which was slightly friendly on the acreage number but bearish on the stocks figures. Bean acres came in slightly below trade expectations at 75.2 million vs expectations of 76.5. The trade is looking for a resurvey of producers in several states due to the fact that the acreage data was collected before many farmers in the northern states were finished planting. The results are not expected to be reported until somtime in August. Soybean stocks came in at 619 million bushels vs expectations of 590. This set the stage for a lower opening in soybeans along with the very bearish corn numbers. In the overnight trade corn closed down 5 cents in the July futures and 38 cents lower in the December contracts, beans were 6 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed down 2 cents. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
6-30-11
OPENING CALLS - CORN - LIMIT DOWN
BEANS - 20 TO 30 LOWER
WHEAT - 40 TO 50 LOWER
Good Morning,
USDA released their latest acreage and stocks report at 7: 30 this morning. USDA pegged the corn acres at 92.3 million which was above the trade estimate of 90.8. Most of the increase in cron acreage came from Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota. USDA reported a 4 million acres increase over last year despite the inclement weather this spring along with all of the flooding problemsin many states. Given the new acreage number of 92.3 million and using USDA's projected yield of 158.7 bushels per acre, corn production is now estimated at 13.516 billion bushels. June 1st corn stocks came in at 3.67 billion bushels which was 350 million bushels above the average traders guess. The soybean acreage number came in at 75.2 million acres. The average guess came in at 76.5 and the report showed 1.3 million acres below that. The new soybean acres figure of 75.2 is 2.2 million acres less than what was planted last year. Using USDA's projected yield of 43.4 bpa soybean production is now estimated at 3.225 billion bushels. This is a drop of 60 million bushels and would put carryout numbers for soybeans next year at around 160 million bushels. June 1st soybean stocks came in at 619 million bushels which was almost 30 million bushels higher than the 590 expected by the trade. Look for the markets to all open sharply lower this morning due to the release of the USDA reports which were very bearish.
6-29-11
OPENING CALLS - CORN - 16 TO 23 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 14 TO 16 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 8 TO 17 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 22 cents higher on Tuesday as the funds bought nearly 17,000 contracts of corn. Reports circulated in the trade yesterday that North Dakota has as much as 6.3 million acres that went into the preventive planting program. That would equate to 28% of their crops including corn,wheat and soybean. Also the CEO from Cargill yesterday has estimated that 2.5 million acres of corn has been lost due to spring flooding. It is uncertain as to how much of this will actually show up on the June 30th acreage and stocks report. For the report tommorrow, it is believed that a number below 90.5 million acres would be bullish and a number above 92.0 would be bearish. For the stocks numbers, under 3.2 billion will be friendly and above 3.4 will be negative. The soybean market closed a penny higher yesterday after a decrease in the crop ratings on Monday afternoon helped to boost prices on Tuesday. A higher crude oil trade and a lower dollar also helped to support prices. The traders are now turning their attention on the June 30th reports. The average trade guess for soybean acres is 76.5 million acres with the range falling between 75.5 to 77.2. The average guess for stocks comes in at 590 million bushels with the range between 477 to 632. In the overnight trade corn closed 23 1/2 cents higher, beans were 14 cents higher and wheat closed up 14 1/2 cents. Today look for the markets to open higher on ideas that conditions in Greece may get resolved. Outside markets are also supportive this morning.
6-28-11
OPENING CALLS - CORN - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 10 TO 13 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 10 TO 13 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 cents lower on Monday as funds continued to liquidate their positions. Funds sold another 8000 contracts of corn yesterday. Export demand remains slow coming in at only 28.9 million bushels this week. The trade needs 43.8 to stay on pace with USDA's yearly demand projection of 1.9 billion bushels. The drop in corn prices by over a dollar per bushel in the past couple of weeks should encourage usage. USDA released their crop condition reports after the market close yesterday. The corn condition surprised the trade and dropped by 2 percentage points coming in at 68% good to excellent. Key Midwestern states like Illinois and Iowa both dropped by 4% while Kentucky and Tennessee gained betwwen 6 to 12 points. The acreage and stocks report will be released on June 30th. June 1st corn stocks are expected to come in at 3.302 billion bushels with the average guess on acres coming in at 90.7. The soybean market closed 9 1/2 cents higher on Monday as USDA announced bean export sales of 132,000 metric tons to China for this marketing year. The crop condition report showed a decrease in soybean ratings by 3%, down to 65% good to excellent this past week. The major drops were in Illinois at 3%, Iowa down 6% and Minnesota down by 8%. Increases were reported in Indiana by 3% and up 6% in Michigan. The June 30th acreage report is expected to come in around 76.5 million acres for soybeans. Soybean stocks are expected to come in around 826 million bushels. In the overnight trade corn closed 8 cents higher, beans were 13 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed up 9 cents. Look for the markets to start off higher this morning due to a drop in the crop condition report for both corn and beans yesterday afternoon.
6-27-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 8 TO 11 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 11 cents lower on Friday after rumors that China was in the market for US corn went unconfirmed on Friday night. It was thought that China has interest in as much as 1.5 million tons of US corn. The dollar also strengthened on Friday as more uncertain news out of Europe surfaced again. The latest weather forecasts are calling for normal to above normal temperatures with normal rainfall across the Midwest in the next 6 to 10 days. Crop condition reports will be released this afternoon. Most are looking for more improvement in the crops across the Midwest with some worsening conditions in the Southwestern US. The soybean market closed 2 1/2 cents higher on Friday on news that China bought 120,000 mt of US new crop soybeans. The Chinese Premier said on Friday that inflation there was under control. China also bought some soyoil from Argentina last week. This afternoon USDA will release the crop condition report. The trade is looking for a 1% improvement in the soybean crop to around 69% good to excellent. This would put the rating in line with the 5 year average. The trade is looking for the soybean crop to be 95% emerged and 99% planted nationwide. In the overnight trade corn closed 5 1/2 cents lower, beans were down 5 cents and wheat closed down 11 cents. This morning look for the markets to start off lower in line with the overnight settlemnents. Look for some position squaring prior to Thursday's stocks and acreage reports.
6-24-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 6 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 9 TO 11 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher on Thursday in a day of very erratic trade. July corn futures were 35 cents lower right after the open and rallied back to close slightly higher. The outside markets were sharply lower yesterday after the International Energy Agency decided to release 60 million barrels of oil onto the world market. This caused crude oil to drop over 5 dollars per barrel and gold and silver were also sharply lower. The weekly export sales came in better than expected yesterday at 16.3 million bushels. With the corn market trading at more than a dollar lower than the June highs, traders looked on this as a buying opportunity. This helped to support prices into the close. The market will now begin to focus on the June 30th acreage and stocks report. The soybean market closed 12 1/2 cents lower yesterday after trading as much as 40 cents lower early in the session. The market rallied back some prior to the close of trade. Bean export sales were disappointing coming in at 6.8 million bushels. The trade needs 13.1 million bushels weekly to stay on track with USDA's projections. Just after the release of the report, USDA reported cancellations of 452,500 mt of soybeans during the 2010-2011 marketing year. This only confirms the poor export demand that we have seen in soybeans over the past couple of months. A slowdown in the global economy could only further hurt the demand for US exports. In the overnight trade corn closed up 12 1/2 cents, beans were 6 cents higher and wheat closed up 8 1/2 cents. This morning look for the markets to start off higher and be well supported on any setbacks.
6-23-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 9 TO 11 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 30 cents on Wednesday as heavy fund liquidation was evident as traders hit the panic button. Funds sold 30,000 contracts of corn on the day. The Chinese rumors to purchase corn from the US still has not been confirmed. The strengthening UD dollar, continued concern over the financial problems in Greece and forecasts calling for warmer and drier conditions across the Midwest all weighed heavily on the markets yesterday. Commodities are now being looked on by some investors as one of the least attractive investments which is a big change from 3 months ago. Flooding concerns are still a big problem in areas along the Missouri River. Many bridges in Missouri and Nebraska have been closed and rail lines are also being affected along with more than 1 million acres of farmland. The soybean market closed 18 1/2 cents lower yesterday in spillover weakness from the other grains. Funds have continued to liquidate their positions in the commodities. Yesterday the federal government downgraded the performance of the US economy for the short term. This did not bode well for commodities and caused some concern in the investment world. Overnight another 6.7 magnitude earthquake struck near Honshu, Japan. The full extent of the damage is not yet known but no tsunami warning has been issued. In the overnight trade corn closed down 10 1/2 cents, beans were down 1 1/2 cents and wheat closed down 2 cents. Look for the markets to start off lower this morning and then hopefully find some support at these lower levels. Outside markets are all weaker this morning and have put pressure on commodity prices on the overnight.
6-22-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 7 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 7 TO 14 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents higher on Tuesday on rumors that China might be interested in buying up to 1 MMT of US corn for 2011-12 delivery. Heavy rainfall was also reported in areas along the Missouri River which has already been impacted by flooding problems. A weaker dollar yesterday also helped to support corn futures prices as we saw the funds purchase around 15,000 contracts of corn. There was some talk yesterday that a high pressure ridge may set up in July that would create a lot of heat and block any storms from coming into the Western Corn Belt affecting Iowa and Nebraska. Since it is still a couple of weeks away, not many private forecasters are putting much faith in these predictions. The soybean market closed 13 cents higher on Tuesday gaining support from the outside markets. A weaker dollar and higher crude oil prices helped to support the commodities yesterday. The latest weather forecasts show an improvement as drying is expected to occur over wet areas of the Midwest in the next 6 to 10 days. Warmer temperatures in the last half of the period will lead to ideal growing conditions for the crops. On June 30th, USDA will release their latest updates on acres planted this past season. Current numbers put soybean acres at 76.6 million. It will be interesting to see if these numbers hold up on the June 30th report given the economic incentive to plant corn over beans. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 1/2 cents, beans were 7 cents lower and wheat closed down 7 cents. Today look for the markets to open lower and then continue to take direction from the outside markets.
6-21-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 13 TO 15 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 11 TO 13 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 8 TO 14 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed unchanged on Monday in a fairly quiet trading day. After last weeks huge losses the corn market finally leveled out. The market had really nothing new to trade off of yesterday. Greece has still not resolved their financial problems. A vote is expected today out of the EU to decide if they will get additional funds to pay down their debts. The crop progress report was released yesterday afternoon showing a slight improvement in the corn condition. The crop is now rated 70% good to excellent which was a raise of 1% from last week. Some states went backwards by 1 to 2% such as Illinois and the Dakota's. Too much rain in some areas actually made the crop condition a little worse. The soybean market closed 3 cents higher on Monday as the market consolidated after last weeks sell off. Export shipments came in at 4.1 million bushels which was slightly lower than trade expectations. On the soybean progress report released yesterday afternoon, 94% of the soybean crop is now planted. The crop condition report improved by 1% and is now rated at 68% good to excellent vs the 69% rating from last year. The Illinois crop rating dropped by 3% due to some heavy rains in parts of the state. The trade is now awaiting the June 30th acreage and stocks report. They will be looking for any deviation in the 76.6 million acres that USDA projected on their latest report. In the overnight trade corn closed up 13 1/2 cents, beans were up 12 cents and wheat closed 8 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
6-20-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 CENT LOWER TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 CENT LOWER TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 1 cent on Friday ending the week nearly a dollar lower on the July futures contract. The financial problems in Greece took a toll on the markets last week. Over the weekend not much progress was made on the problems in Greece as the EU was unable to come to any agreement on funding them any more money until the parliment in Greece finds more meaningful ways to reduce their deficit. They will continue to work on these issues today but the continued uncertainty will not be constructive to the grain markets. This afternoon USDA will be out with their planting progress report. Last week it was reported that 99% of the corn crop had been planted. Today the trade is looking for another improvement in the condition report by 1 to 2%. Last week the corn crop was rated 69% good to excellent. The soybean market closed 17 1/2 cents lower on Friday in another day of fund liquidation. Informa released their acreage numbers putting soybean planted acreage at 76.4. The market viewed this as nuetral to slightly negative. This afternoon's planting progress report is expected to show an improvement in the soybean crop rating of 1 to 2%. Last week's report showed that 87% of the soybean crop was planted compared to 89% on the 5 year average. Good progress in planting is expected to be revealed this afternoon. China is believed to have bought 10 to 12 cargoes of beans from South America. The majority of these are expected to come from Brazil. In the overnight trade corn closed up 2 cents, beans were up a penny and wheat closed unchanged. Look for the market to open steady to lower this morning with any recovery expected to be short lived.
6-17-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 7 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 24 cents lower on Thursday on another day of fund liquidation. The corn market has dropped 82 cents in the past three trading days. Most of the selloff has been caused by concerns over economic problems in Greece and some of the EU countries. Yesterday Informa released their acreage estimates putting corn planted acres at 90.6 million acres. This was right in line with USDA's estimate of acres on the June supply demand report which came in at 90.7. The Senate voted again yesterday on a bill to eliminate the ethanol subsidy which was passed by a vote of 73 to 27. Just two days before this, the bill was voted down. The strengthening of the US dollar over the past couple of days has also weighed on prices. The soybean market closed 17 1/2 cents lower on Thursday as the funds sold another 6000 contracts of soybeans on the day. Pressure from the global financial problems and a stronger dollar continued to weigh on commodity prices yesterday. Informa released their acreage estimates for soybeans yesterday coming in at 76.4 million acres. This was very close to USDA's number of 76.6 on the June supply demand report. Soybean export shipments continue to disappoint the trade. Weather forecasts calling for warmer temperatures across the Midwest will be good for crop development. Flooding problems will continue along the Missouri River and could add support to prices in the coming days. In the overnight trade corn closed up 9 1/2 cents, beans were 4 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed up 6 1/2 cents. Today look for the markets to start off higher on news that China may be looking to buy some US corn.
6-15-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 2 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 27 cents on Tuesday after funds sold more than 16,000 contracts on the day. Talk that the Senate vote yesterday might eliminate ethanol subsides had a very negative influence on the markets. Continued improvement in the crop conditions along with a weather pattern that will be very conducive to crop development over the next two weeks also weighed on values yesterday. On the positive side, ethanol margins improved with the drop in corn prices on Tuesday and the final vote yesterday by the Senate kept the ethanol subsidy in place. The overnight trade in corn was 5 to 7 cents higher at one time but closed lower on pressure from the outside markets. Debt problems in Greece continued to work on the equity markets. The soybean market closed down 15 cents yesterday on another day of liqudation by the funds. They sold 7000 contracts of soybeans yesterday. Funds continue to lighten their positions as the Chinese demand for beans continue to drop off. Some in the trade are wondering whether China will take all of its old crop obligations. Many think that they will fall short by as much as 15 million bushels which could get rolled into new crop. The latest weather forecasts will support good crop development on what has been planted. On June 30th, USDA will give us the latest acreage updates. It will be interesting to see if they got the acres on beans that they had planned on. In the overnight trade corn closed down 4 1/2 cents, beans were up a penny and wheat closed unchanged. Today look for the markets to open mixed and come under some pressure from the outside markets and a stronger dollar.
6-14-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 10 TO 13 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents lower yesterday on weaker outside markets and an improving weather forecast. A stronger dollar and lower crude oil prices weighed on commodities on Monday. The planting progress report was released yesterday afternoon showing that 99% of the nation's corn crop has now been planted. The trade was only expecting a number around 96 to 97%. Ohio, North Dakota and Indiana made big gains over the past week and are now 96 to 97% planted. The traders attention will now focus on weather which is expected to be favorable for crop development over the next couple of weeks. Yesterday afternoon, the corn condition rating improved by 2 percentage points up to 69% good to excellent. The soybean market closed down 4 cents on Monday on weakness in gold, silver and crude oil and strength in the dollar. The soybean progress report showed that 87% of the nation's soybean crop has now been planted vs 89% average. The states that were farthest behind have now virtually caught up. Ohio came in at 77% planted vs 26% last week and Indiana came in at 78% vs 49% last week. The first soybean crop condition report was released showing that 67% of the crop was rated good to excellent vs 73% last year. The weather across the Midwest looks good over the next 10 days. The Delta area has received some rain over the past couple of days which has improved conditions there. In the overnight trade corn closed down 11 cents, beans were down 4 cents and wheat closed down 2 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning on improved crop conditions and planting progress.
6-13-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 CENT HIGHER ON OLD CROP, 4 CENTS LOWER ON NEW CROP
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up 1 1/2 cents on Friday as some profit taking was evident in the corn market after Thursday's sharp run up in prices following the USDA supply demand report. The trade is looking for an improvement in crop conditions on this afternoon's progress report. Ohio and Indiana is also expected to show some good gains in planting progress over the past week. Weather across the Midwest has now turned cool and wet in many places. The Missouri River situation continues to get worse after heavy rain has fallen across the northern areas. This is likely to increase the amount of acres lost due to flooding in the coming days. The soybean market closed 6 1/2 cents lower on Friday on continued fund liquidation. The funds sold 3000 contracts of soybeans and 1000 contracts of meal . Weaker outside markets and a stronger dollar added to the selloff in the grain markets. Hot and dry weather continues throughout the Delta region adding to crop stress there. The planting progress report this afternoon is expected to show that around 89% of the nation's soybean crop is now planted. USDA is expected to release the first soybean condition report this afternnon. Traders are looking for the crop to be rated at around 64% good to excellent. There has been some talk in the trade that China is in the market for a couple of cargoes of US soyoil but nothing has yet been confirmed. In the overnight trade corn closed 1 1/2 cents higher, beans were down 3 cents and wheat closed 4 cents higher. Look for the markets to open lower this morning and then trade in relation to the outside influences.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents higher yesterday on a weaker dollar and stronger outside markets. There were reports yesterday that as much as 1 million acres of corn and bean ground could be affected by flooding along the Missouri River. Last month the trade was dealing with flooding issues along the Mississippi River. Bernanke's comments yesterday that the US still faces some economic challenges caused some concerns in the marketplace yesterday. USDA will release their monthly supply demand report on Thursday morning. The trade is looking for a reduction in both old crop and new crop carryout stocks. Last month old crop stocks were estimated at 735 million bushels and new crop stocks were at 900 million. The soybean market closed 11 cents higher yesterday on light fund buying. The wet forecast for later this week could futher delay soybean plantings. Some forecasts are calling for as much as 2 to 3 inches of rain across Illinois and Iowa by the first of next week. The Delta area is also expected to receive some rain over the next couple of days. The Missouri River flooding will likely cause some crop losses in the days and weeks ahead. Tommorrow mornings supply demand report is expected to show an increase in both old and new crop soybean stocks. Last month USDA estimated 170 for old crop stocks and 160 for new. In the overnight trade corn closed up 2 cents, beans were 5 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed unchanged. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning as traders postion themselves ahead of Thursday morning's report.
6-7-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 CENT LOWER TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 22 cents lower on Monday as more favorable weather forecasts caused heavy liquidation in the corn market yesterday. Funds sold 13,000 contracts of corn on the day. Talk circulated on Monday in the international community for an increase in oversight over commodities to regulate speculative buying of grains. The crop progress report released yesterday afternoon showed that 94% of the corn crop has now been planted nationwide. Ohio was reported to be 58% complete and Indiana came in at 82%. The crop condition also improved by 4 percentage points to 67% good to excellent. The latest weather forecasts call for above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the Midwest over the next 6 to 10 days. The soybean market closed 31 cents lower on Monday as concerns over global economies triggerred some long liqidation by the funds. Soybean exports were also very disappointing coming in at only 3.4 million bushels vs 11.4 needed weekly to stay on pace with USDA's yearly projection. The planting progress report yesterday showed that 68% of the nation's soybean crop has now been planted vs 82% average. This leaves 11 million acres of soybeans yet to be planted. Ohio came in at only 26% complete with Indiana a 49%. On Thursday USDA will release their monthly supply demand report. The trade is looking for an increase in soybean stocks for both old and new crop. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 cents, beans were up 3 cents and wheat closed down a penny. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning in line with the overnight trade.
6-6-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 8 TO 11 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 6 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 6 TO 12 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 12 1/2 cents on Friday as planting progress is expected to make some big gains this week. The trade is looking for corn planting to come in at 92% complete with Ohio expected to be around 80% done with corn. Crop conditions are expected to rise from the 63% good to excellent rating as weather conditions have improved over the past week. Corn exports came in below expectations at 18.6 million bushels of which Japan and Mexico were the leading buyers. The overnight markets were also lower as some rains occurred over the weekend in areas that needed it. Good rains also occurred in Europe which will help alleviate some of the drought problems there. The soybean market closed 7 1/2 cents higher on Friday as funds continued to buy soybeans. The hot and dry weather in the Delta may be starting to take its toll on the soybean crop. The trade is also thinking now that much of the corn in Indiana and Ohio will now get planted reducing the amount of acres going into soybeans. The national planting report to be released this afternoon is expected to show that 65 to 70% of the soybean crop is now planted. Export sales continue to come in below expectations at only 5.7 million bushels. The latest weather forecasts show very warm temperatures across the Midwest through Wednesday and then some rain and a return to more normal temperatures. In the overnight trade corn closed down 8 cents, beans were 8 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 12 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning on weaker outside markets and on a lack of any new bullish news.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 6 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 21 cents on Tuesday as another day of profit taking was evident. Funds sold nearly 12,000 contracts of corn yesterday. The latest weather forecasts called for warmer temperatures and drier conditions for next week. The trade has seemed to shrug off the planting delays in Ohio, Indiana and several other places. There still remains a little more than 19 million acres of corn yet to be planted. Weather forecasts for this week continue to call for rain which will further delay this. China reported yesterday that their corn production is expected to increase by 2.5% over last year. This will reduce the amount of corn that they would need to import for next year provided that the yields turn out good. The soybean market closed 1 1/2 cents lower yesterday on some minor fund selling. The strength in soybeans yesterday surprised the trade as the demand for beans has fallen off and planting delays continue to increase the chances of more soybean acres getting planted this spring. On Monday afternoon's progress report, however, the nation was still 10% behind the normal planting pace for beans. The large South American soybean crop this year is drastically reducing soybean exports out of the US.Earlier this year US exports to China were at record pace. In the overnight trade corn closed up 5 cents, beans were 6 cents higher and wheat closed up 4 1/2 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning as the price drop was overdone yesterday.
5-24-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 CENTS LOWER ON OLD CROP, 1 CENT HIGHER ON NEW
BEANS - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 5 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good morning,
Corn futures closed down 5 1/2 cents yesterday on pressure from weaker outside markets. Crude oil was sharply lower and the dollar was sharply higher. Doubts about Europe's ability to manage it's debt problems surfaced again yesterday which drove down equity markets and spilled over into commodity prices. The corn planting progress report was released yesterday afternoon coming in at 79% planted vs 87% average. Iowa was virtually done at 98% complete while Illinois was not far behind at 90%. Ohio was on the other spectrum at only 11% finished and Indiana came in at 49%. This still leaves over 19 million acres of corn unplanted. Some analysts are lowering the 2011 corn planted acreage down to around 90 million acres. In March USDA estimated 92.2. The soybean market closed 6 1/2 cents lower on Monday after funds sold another 4000 contracts of soybeans. Fears that spring planting delays could add to soybean acres weighed on prices yesterday. Weather forecasts continue to call for wet conditions to persist for the remainder of this week. Some in the trade are estimating that 3.5 million acres of cropland is flooded along the Mississippi River. Yesterday afternoon the progress report showed that 41% of the nation's soybean crop is now planted vs 51% average. Iowa came in at 78%, Nebraska at 68%, and Illinois at 47% complete. Indiana was only 17% planted. In the overnight trade corn closed down 5 cents, beans were 6 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed down 6 cents. Look for a mixed market today with trade likely on both sides of the close. Continued concerns over the European debt crisis will likely weigh on the grain markets again today.
5-19-11
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 14 TO 18 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 29 1/2 cents higher yesterday on strong fund buying on weather concerns. Some in the trade believe that corn acreage may be reduced by 2.7 million acres bringing total corn planted acreage to only 89.5 million acres. The combination of flooded ground along the rivers and planting delays especially in Indiana and Ohio have made traders a little nervous. Funds bought 20,000 contracts of corn yesterday alone. Lack of precipitation in wheat growing regions not only in the US but also in the European Union, China and Australia has given wheat prices a big boost. One estimate I saw yesterday stated that nearly 85% of the world wheat is currently in dry soil. July wheat closed up 53 cents yesterday. The soybean market closed 38 1/2 cents higher on Wednesday on renewed fund buying in commodities. Planting delays and flooding issues are not only affecting corn but also soybeans. Flooding problems will reduce some soybean acres in the Delta region and one analyst is now expecting total soybean acres planted this spring to be reduced by 1.5 million acres over USDA's last estimate of 76.6. On Monday's planting progress report, soybean plantings were behind by 15% over the 5 year average of 37%. Rains have continued to slow progress in the South and East. In the overnight trade corn and beans closed 9 cents higher and wheat closed up 14 1/2 cents. The latest weather reports include rain for the weekend and into early next week for the Eastern Corn Belt. This will continue to slow plantings beyond the optimal planting dates for corn.
5-18-11
OPENING CALLS - CORN - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 15 1/2 cents higher yesterday as fund buying picked up on new weather forcasts that called for a wetter and cooler scenario for the next two weeks. The market also holds on to the idea that China may have purchased up to 2 MMT of US corn, however, no confirmation has yet been announced. Weekly corn exports came in at 37 million bushels with Mexico the featured buyer. The planting progress report released yesterday afternoon showed that 63% of the nation's corn crop has now been planted. The trade was estimating the number to be around 60%. Ohio was the farthest behind at only 7% and North Dakota came in at 14%. Illinois was at 69%, Iowa at 92% and Nebraska at 84%. Normal for this time of year is 75% complete. The soybean market closed 3 cents lower yesterday after trading higher for much of the day. Wetter forecasts gave way to ideas that more soybean acres may end up getting planted. The soybean crush also came in somewhat disappointing at only 121 million bushels. That was down 13 million bushels from the previous month. The soybean planting progress report released yesterday afternoon showed that 22% of the nation's soybean crop has now been planted. The 5 year average is 31%. Illinois was reported to be at 16% planted vs 28% average. Export inspections for beans were also disappointing coming in at only 5.1 million bushels. In the overnight trade corn closed 6 1/2 cents higher, beans were up 4 cents and wheat closed a penny higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning with trade likely on both sides of the close today.
5-16-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 11 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 3 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 9 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 1 1/2 cents higher on Friday as the corn market traded on both sides of unchanged. Corn traded higher shortly after the opening and then turned lower for most of the session. Overall bearishness was a result of talks that Greece was going to have to refinance their debt and active planting in the Eastern Corn Belt was enough to keep the corn market on the defensive. The corn planting progress report this afternoon is expected to show planting at around 60% complete with the 5 year average at 75%. The latest forecasts are calling for dry weather in the Midwest for most of this week. A couple of cool nights with frost possible will lead to much warmer temperatures by the weekend. Rumors still continue to circulate that China has bought 1 MMT of old crop and new crop corn but nothing has been confirmed yet. The soybean market closed 13 cents lower on Friday as funds sold nearly 6000 contracts of soybeans. Funds continued to liquidate as the dollar strengthened and outside markets turned negative on the Greece news. Soybean planting progress is expected to come in at 20% compared with last year at 37% and the 5 year average of 31%. Flood gates were opened over the weekend in the Delta area which flooded a lot of farm ground. The extent of that flooding is yet to be determined. In the overnight trade corn closed up 11 cents, beans were up 4 cents and wheat closed 9 1/2 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight trade.
5-13-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 10 TO 12 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher on Thursday after limit down losses on Wednesday following the USDA report. There were rumors circulating in the trade yesterday that China may have purchased 1 to 2 MMT of corn. Corn priced drifted lower on the close however when no confirmation of the sale could be made. Planting strides have continued to be made in the Eastern Corn Belt where planting has been seriously behind. Showers are predicted over the weekend across most of the corn belt which will restrict further planting progress. Most in the trade believe that 60% of the nation's corn crop has now been planted. Weekly export sales came in at a disappointing 17.1 million bushels yesterday. That only continues to confirm the poor export demand which has developed with the higher prices. The soybean market closed up 11 cents on Thursday after posting moderate losses in the overnight trade from Wednesday night. The soybean market gained support yesterday after the dollar weakened and crude oil prices rallied. Export sales were once again disappointing coming in at only 2.2 million bushels which was well below the expectations of around 10 million bushels. Thers is some talk in the trade this morning that China has purchased 500,000 MT of Argentine soy oil. The trade will be watching for confirmation of this today. Some planting progress has been made in soybeans this past week. Most think that nearly 20% of the nation's soybean crop has now been planted. In the overnight trade corn closed up 6 1/2 cents, beans were up 9 cents and wheat closed up 8 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning on stronger outside markets and a weaker US dollar.
5-12-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 10 TO 18 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 17 TO 19 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 18 TO 21 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down the 30 cent limit on Wednesday after USDA raised the carryout on corn to 730 million bushels, up from 675 on last month's report. All of the increase came from a 55 million bushel drop in exports. Carryout for 2011-2012 was also increased to 900 million bushels even though USDA lowered the yield by 3 bushels per acre. Also some in the trade feel that corn acreage may be reduced by 3 million acres due to the flooding problems this year. None of the reduction showed up on this report. Even though carryout levels have been raised on this report, they are still tight enough that it leaves no room for any problems to develop with this year's crop. The soybean market closed down 6 cents on Wednesday following the USDA report. Carryover on beans was raised yesterday by 30 million bushels up to 170 million due to a decrease in exports. Brazil's soybean crop was estimated at 73 MMT which was up 1 MMT from the previous report. Argentina's soybean crop was left unchanged at 49.5 MMT. The soybean market faired pretty well yesterday and was supported late in the session by fund buying. Traders focussed on the ever tightening stocks to use ratio both globally and domestically. The question remains however, that if some areas of the country fail to get corn acres planted this year, how much of that acreage will swing over to soybeans? In the overnight trade corn closed down 17 1/2 cents, beans were 17 cents lower and wheat closed down 21 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements. Weather patterns will remain active through the weekend but dry conditions will dominate the next two weeks in the Eastern Corn Belt.
5-11-11
OPENING CALLS: CORN - 5 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 15 TO 20 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed unchanged yesterday on old crop and down 5 cents on new crop. Corn planting has been progressing rapidly in parts of the Midwest including Iowa and Illinois. The troubled states remain in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan where less than 5% of the corn crop has been planted. Some corn acres may also be lost along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers but also some corn acres may be added in Nebraska, Iowa, and parts of Illinois. The average guess for this mornings report was 665 million bushels on old crop ending stocks. The report came out at 730 million bushels mostly because of a decrease in exports. The soybean market closed 3 cents higher on Tuesday as funds sat on the sidelines ahead of the USDA report on Wednesday morning. Soybean planting is now getting underway in Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois where some farmers are now finishing with corn. USDA reported on Monday that 7% of the nation's soybean crop was planted compared with 17% average. Strides were being made in the south but not much planted yet in the northern areas. The latest weather forecasts do not show much rain for the Midwest next week so a good window of opportunity may open up to get caught up on planting. On the USDA report this morning, soybean ending stocks were raised to 170 million bushels vs 140 last month. In the overnight trade corn closed up 3 cents, beans were 3 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed up 6 cents. Look for the markets to be lower this morning based on the latest USDA ending stocks numbers.
5-10-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 9 TO 12 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 19 TO 21 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 21 cents higher yesterday after several days of down markets. The funds bought 9000 contracts of corn on Monday. The rally was attributed to a technical bounce and stronger outside markets. The planting progress report was released yesterday afternoon showing that 40% of the nations corn crop was now planted. Last year we were at 59% complete. The trade was expecting the number to come in around 35%. Big gains were made in Iowa at 69% complete, Kansas at 66% done, Nebraska at 59% complete and Illinois at 34% finished. The problem areas now seem to be in Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee. The latest weather forecasts are calling for the remainder of the week to be rather wet. This will limit planting progress for the balance of the week. The soybean market closed 9 cents higher yesterday on fund buying and stronger outside markets. Export shipments came in somewhat dissappointing at only 6 million bushels. Last week we exported 8.1 million bushels of soybeans. The first soybean planting progress report was released yesterday afternoon showing that 7% of the nations soybean crop has been planted compared with the 5 year average of 17% and last year's rapid pace at 28%. USDA will release their supply-demand report on Wednesday with most analysts looking for a reduction in export numbers which will result in a carryout larger than 140 million bushels. In the overnight trade corn closed up 7 1/2 cents, beans were 9 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed up 20 cents. Look for the markets to start off higher this morning and then take direction from the outside markets and the latest weather forecasts.
5-9-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 6 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 17 TO 20 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 22 1/2 cents lower on Friday and lost 70 cents for the week mostly due to bearish news that spilled over from the economy. Crude oil was sharply lower last week and dropped nearly $14 per barrel. Weather forecasts also lowered the precipitation amounts for the weekend. Planting progress this afternoon is expected to come in around 35%. Iowa, Nebraska and Northern Illinois made big gains and parts of Minnesota, South Dakota and Indiana also made strides over the weekend. Informa released their planting numbers lowering corn by 300,000 acres down to 91.9 million acres. This should be somewhat friendly to new crop corn prices. The soybean market closed 4 cents higher on Friday as funds purchased nearly 3000 contracts of soybeans. Funds are now estimated to be around 127,000 contracts long on beans. On May 11th, USDA will release their supply-demand estimates. Soybean carryout numbers are expected to come in around 153 million bushels vs their last estimate at 140. Informa updated their acreage estimates on Friday lowering the soybean acres by 600,000 down to a total planted for this year of 76 million acres. They also increased Brazil's soybean crop by 1.6 MMT up to 73.1. They put the Argentine soybean production at 50 MMT. In the overnight trade corn closed up 10 cents, beans were 8 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed up 17 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning and then take direction from the latest weather forecasts.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 3 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 11 cents lower on old crop and a penny higher on new crop on Tuesday as funds continued to liquidate old crop positions. The funds sold 15000 corn contracts on the day. Outside markets also were lower yesterday with crude oil down $2.00 per barrel and gold and silver also down sharply. Planting progress was also gaining momentum in Iowa, Nebraska and northern Illinois. The latest weather forecasts have increased the rain chances across the Midwest over the next 7 days, but after that the forecast looks a little drier. Corn planting still remains well behind normal as only 13% of the nations corn crop had been planted by May 1st. This is well below the 5 year average of 40%. Cool temperatures are also slowing progress. Widespread frost was reported across northern sections of the Midwest overnight. The soybean market closed 29 cents lower yesterday as funds sold another 4000 contracts of soybeans on the day. Traders are still focussed on ideas that if corn plantings continue to be delayed, then more acres could go into soybeans. The slowing economy in China is also causing concern in the marketplace. Soybean exports have been very slow lately and with no signs of improvement on the horizon. South American harvest is also progressing very rapidly with Brazil nearly done and Argentina 2/3rd complete. Yields have been very good there. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were down 4 cents and wheat closed down 5 cents. Look for a two sided trade today with markets likely to find some support at these lower levels.
5-3-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER ON OLD, 9 CENTS HIGHER ON NEW
BEANS - 9 TO 11 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 4 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 22 cents lower on old crop and 8 cents lower on new crop. The latest weather forecasts have taken out some of the precipitation for the upper Midwest. Iowa, Nebraska, and portions of northern Illinois were all in the fields yesterday planting corn. The planting progress report released Monday afternoon showed that only 13% of the nation's corn crop has been planted. Expectations were for around 15 to 18% and last year we were at 66% complete. This helped to rally new crop corn on the overnight trade. Another negative weighing on commodities on Monday was the announcement by Chinese officials that their manufacturing had slowed in April by .5%. Nearby prices were hurt by talk that South Korea continues to buy Austrailian feed wheat at nearly $2.00 discount to corn. The soybean market closed a penny lower yesterday. Soybean export shipments continue to come in very slim at only 5.5 million bushels. Lagging exports have been a drag on the soybean market especially since South American beans have become available. Soybean harvest in Argentina is now 70% complete and Brazil is nearly finished at 96% done. Some are now estimating the Brazilian soybean crop at 2 to 3 MMT larger than originally thought. Below average temperatures and above average precipitation in the main soybean growing areas of the US is keeping planting progress to a minimum in the south. In the overnight trade corn closed down 4 cents on old crop and up 9 cents on new, beans were down 11 cents and wheat closed down 4 cents. Look for the markets to open this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 15 TO 17 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 11 TO 17 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents higher on old crop and 6 cents lower on new crop on Tuesday. Old crop strength came from ideas that if corn planting gets delayed then it would take longer to get the new crop to market this fall. New crop weakness came on ideas that weather forecasts were starting to look a little more promising. The Western Corn Belt was believed to be able to get into the fields later this week for corn planting. Corn yields will not start to become compromised for another 10 to 13 days. There was talk in the trade yesterday that the CME may raise the daily corn limits from 30 to 50 cents. This will create even more volatility in the corn market. The soybean market closed 9 cents lower on Tuesday as inflation fears in China have caused them to raise their interest rates again in order to slow demand. Funds sold nearly 5000 contracts of soybeans yesterday. Brazil is wrapping up their soybean harvest and Argentina is a little over half done. The trade is also dealing with ideas that if corn planting gets delayed more acres could end up going into soybeans. Water levels on the upper Mississippi are receding enough to get barges loaded again. This is causing freight to go up on the Illinois River widening out basis levels. In the overnight trade corn closed down 9 cents, beans were 15 cents lower and wheat closed down 17 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning and then take direction from any new weather forecasts.
4-26-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 3 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 25 cents higher on Monday after forecasts continued to call for rain to fall across the midwest off and on during most of the week. Some forecasts were calling for as much as 4 to 10 inches of rain across Southern Illinois, parts of Missouri and across Indiana and Ohio. Hot and dry weather continues to plague the US southern plains and parts of China, Europe and Russia. All of this had an impact on the markets yesterday. In the planting progress report released Monday afternoon, only 9% of the nations corn crop has been planted compared with 46% last year and 23% average. Overnight markets were lower despite the slow planting pace on rumors that China may take measures again very soon to lower inflation. The soybean market closed 9 cents higher yesterday despite weather forecasts calling for increased rain chances to slow corn planting progress. Some switching over to beans could take place if we have a late spring. With South American stocks continuing to grow it has been hard for beans to mount much of a rally. Argentina's soybean harvest is now at 52% complete with yields running a little above expectations. In the overnight trade corn closed down 5 cents, beans were 9 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 8 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning and then take direction from the latest weather forecasts.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 16 cents lower yesterday after trading 20 cents higher earlier in the session. Fund selling drove the market lower as talk of warmer and drier weather conditions started a liquidation phase in the corn market. There may have been some evening of positions ahead of the three day weekend taking place also. Funds sold nearly 14,000 contracts of corn on Wednesday. In the European Union, corn is being replaced by cheaper barely in feed rations. In other areas wheat is replacing corn as livestock feeders try to find a cheaper means of getting livestock to market. The latest weather forecasts still call for plenty of chances for rain over the next 10 days across the Midwest. Temperatures are also expected to remain cool in the corn belt. The soybean market closed 16 cents higher yesterday despite the big selloff in the corn market. Strength in soybeans was attributed to fund buying, higher outside markets and a weaker dollar. Funds bought nearly 5000 contracts of beans yesterday. Soybeans were due for an upside correction since beans have dropped over $1.00 per bushel since China began cancelling soybean contracts over a week ago. South America's bean crop continues to grow larger as Argentina's bean production has been raised up slightly from previous estimates. In the overnight trade corn closed up 7 cents and beans and wheat were both up 5 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning and then be driven by the latest round of weather forecasts.
4-20-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 14 CENTS HIGHER ON OLD CROP, 5 CENTS HIGHER ON NEW CROP
BEANS : 13 TO 15 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT : 16 TO 18 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents lower yesterday while Dec futures closed up 8 cents. Old crop was down due to sluggish demand and new crop was higher due to the cold and wet weather delaying planting. China suspended the value added tax deduction which created additional incentive for corn processors. Looks like an attempt by the Chinese to slow corn usage to wart off food inflation. The Chinese government had also asked banks to stop loaning money to processors for buying corn from farmers. Wet weather forecasts may keep farmers out of the fields in the Midwest until early May. The soybean market closed down 2 cents yesterday on old crop and almost 5 cents higher on new crop. China continues to cancel soybean purchases which is likely to increase carryout stocks in the US. Some now think that soybean carryout levels could increase by 60 million bushels up to around 200 by year end. The funds have been rolling their long positions now into the new crop. It won't be long , however, until talk in the trade begins about acreage switching from corn to beans especially if the wet weather continues into early May. In the overnight trade corn and beans closed up 14 cents and wheat closed 17 cents higher. Look for the market to open higher this morning as the US dollar is weaker today and the outside markets are all stronger.
4-18-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - STEADY
WHEAT - 15 TO 18 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 10 cents higher on Monday as weather forecasts called for cool wet conditions to persist over the next 10 days. Standard and Poor's lowered their rating on US debt from stable to negative which caused the stock market and crude oil prices to drop dramatically yesterday. The corn planting progress report released yesterday afternoon showed that 7% of the nation's corn crop was now planted compared with 16% last year. Illinois was reported to be 9% vs 29% for the previous year. The Chinese government is trying to reduce corn usage by limiting amounts that can be used for industrial purposes. The soybean market closed 12 cents higher yesterday on light fund buying . Yesterday the Chinese confirmed that they had cancelled up to 8 cargoes of South Amreican beans and have delayed shipment on other cargoes due to poor crush margins. Export inspections for beans yesterday came in below expectations at only 14.2 million bushels. China took only 4.8 million bushels of the total. They have been releasing reserves to get prices down domestically. The Brazilian soybean harvest is now reported to be 90% complete with yields running very good. In the overnight trade corn closed up 3 cents, beans were up 1/2 cent and wheat closed up 15 cents. Look for the corn and wheat markets to open higher this morning with beans steady to lower.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
BEANS - 9 TO 11 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 1/2 cents higher yesterday as old crop corn made new contract highs. The old record high of $7.65 was breached yesterday as May corn futures topped out at $7.70. The market will need to continue to ration the usage as the supply draws ever tighter. On Friday USDA will release their monthly supply-demand report with traders estimating corn carryout to come out at 595 million bushels. Some in the trade believe that China will need to import between 2 to 3 MMT of corn by fall and another 10 to 12 MMT for next year. This will keep the demand for corn strong well into next year. The soybean market closed down 11 cents yesterday as funds liquidated positions for the third straight day. Cancellation of soybean contracts by the Chinese and South American soybean harvest progressing along rapidly with very good yields has weighed on prices over the last couple of sessions. Some analysts are raising Brazil's soybean production now up to 73 MMT. On Friday USDA will estimate carryout numbers for soybeans. The trade is looking for a number of 137 million bushels with the range falling between 121 to 150. The market will need to continue to draw acres into beans as the competition for corn acres grows ever stronger. In the overnight trade corn closed down 1/2 cent, beans were 10 cents higher and wheat closed 2 cents higher. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning with outside markets lending support to grains today.
4-5-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed a penny higher yesterday as traders tried to position themselves ahead of the USDA report on Thursday. The trade remains concerned over whether corn can attract enough acres with high enough yields to take the pressure off of the tight carryout conditions. Forecasts continue to call for cool and wet weather going into spring which could delay plantings. Corn planting is underway in the southern states. Texas is now about half way done with corn with the south-central part of the state extremely dry. The Delta area is a little more than half planted on corn with Louisiana near 80% complete. The soybean market closed 13 cents higher on Tuesday on light fund buying and some short covering prior to Thursday's report. Many in the trade feel that beans will only attract a little over 76 million acres this spring which would leave carryout levels very tight. Last year's planted acreage for soybeans was 77.4 million acres. Private estimates out of Paraguay for their soybean crop are being increased to a record of 8 MMT which is nearly 1 MMT higher than last year. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were 3 cents higher and wheat closed down 6 cents. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning. Trade on both sides of the close is possible today with traders likely to continue to position themselves ahead of the report.
3-29-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 18 1/2 cents lower yesterday as funds sold another 11,000 contracts of corn. There were rumors over the weekend that China bought another 1 MMT of old crop corn but when nothing new was confirmed, the market turned negative. USDA will come out with their stocks and acreage report on Thursday morning. The trade is looking for March 1st corn stocks to come out at 6.68 billion bushels and planting intensions to come in at 91.8 million acres. Weekly export shipments came out at a strong 42.3 million bushels in which Mexico and Japan were the featured buyers. Weather forecasts continue to call for cool and wet conditions in the Midwest over the next 6 to 10 days. The soybean market closed 10 cents lower yesterday as the funds sold 5000 contracts of soybeans. Improvement in the weather in Argentina will allow harvest to resume. More export sales will shift to South America as more beans become available at cheaper prices than US origin. Soybean export shipments came in at 29.3 million bushels yesterday which is in the range of expectations. Brazil is now reported to be 56% complete with soybean harvest but will experience some delays again this week due to wet weather. Acreage estimates for Thursday's report range from 75.0 to 78.5 million acres with the average coming in at 76.78. In the overnight trade corn closed 1/2 cent lower, beans were 4/1/2 cents higher and wheat closed up 4 cents. Look for the markets to open mixed to higher this morning in line with the overnight settlemnets.
3-28-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 13 cents lower on Friday after trading 14 cents higher after the opening following the reported sale of 1.25 million tons of US corn to unknown destinations. This was believed to be the long awaited news that the trade has been looking for. The sale was expected to be of Chinese origin. The "buy thr rumor, sell the fact" mentallity hit the market and corn ended up closing lower. Also there was some profit taking which took place prior to the weekend. There is some talk that the Chinese may be looking for another 4 MMT of corn in the near future. The trade will be positioning themselves this week ahead of the stocks and acreage report on Thursday. The soybean market closed 4 cents higher on Friday on continued wet weather in South America which is delaying soybean harvest. This could swing some nearby sales over to the US in the short term. The trade continues to realize the need for the market to draw in some acres over to the soybean side. The stocks and acreage report is due out on Thursday. Traders are looking for soybean stocks to come out around 1.29 billion bushels and are looking for the acreage number near 76.8 million acres. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were 8 cents higher and wheat closed up 2 cents. Look for the markets to start off higher this morning based on ideas that China may have bought more corn over the weekend and on fears that wet weather will delay planting.
3-23-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed nearly unchanged yesterday in a day of quiet trading. Fund liquidation was seen early in the session on disappointment over a lack of any confirmation of corn sales to the Chinese. The rumor was that at least 1 MMT of corn had been sold to China with ideas that it could have even been more. When nothing materialized, then the market faltered. The latest forecasts for the Midwest contiue to call for cool and wet conditions to persist for the next couple of weeks. The trade will be watching this closely for any hint of spring planting delays. The March 31st stocks and acreage report will get a lot of attention next week. The soybean market closed 2 1/2 cents higher yesterday after trading lower for most of the session. Argentina is now starting to harvest soybeans and weather conditions will remain favorable for that. In Brazil the wet weather is expected to continue in the central and western regions further delaying harvest. Some analysts are starting to lower the soybean production in Brazil by 1 to 2 MMT due to weather related problems. Soybean acreage estimates for the US continue to come in well below the Outlook Conference's 78 million acres. Most are coming in around 2.5 million acres less which could make carryout levels non-existent by the end of next year. In the overnight trade corn closed up 1/2 cent, beans were 1 1/2 cent higher and wheat closed 2 cents higher. Look for the markets to open steady to higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
3-22-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 9 TO 11 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 15 TO 20 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 12 TO 14 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher yesterday in a day of mixed trade. The trade was disappointed yesterday when USDA announced a sale of only 116,000 tons of corn to unknown destinations. Many were expecting some Chinese corn sales to be announced in the vacinity of 1 MMT or more. Weekly export sales were also light at only 29.5 million tons. Goldman Sachs released their acreage estimates yesterday coming in at 92.1 million acres. This was slightly higher than Informa's estimate of 91.7. USDA at the Outlook Conference estimated the corn acreage at 92 million. The soybean market closed 1/2 cent higher yesterday in a day of two sided trade. The South American weather seems to be improving for the time being, however, many concerns regarding too much rain in parts of Brazil continue to loom. The soybean harvest in Brazil is approaching 45% complete which is 10% behind last year's pace. Informa's acreage number was supportive to soybean prices on Friday and Goldman Sachs estimated soybean acreage at 75.6 million acres yesterday. These numbers if realized could put carryout figures for 2011-12 into negative levels. In the overnight trade corn closed down 10 cents, beans were 16 cents lower and wheat closed down 13 1/2 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements as the trade will be looking for any bullish news to grap onto.
3-21-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 37 cents higher on Friday stimulated by the friendly acreage numbers put out by Informa on Friday. The corn acres came out higher than the numbers released in January but lower than the 92 million acres expected. Informa put the US corn planted acreage at 91.758 million. This gave the market a boost as did rumors that China was looking to buy some US corn. Nothing has been confirmed yet but it appears that China may have made some purchases already. Some are thinking that as much as 1 MMT of corn may have been secured from the US with more to be announced. The soybean market closed 27 cents higher on Friday also on bullish acreage estimates released by Informa. Informa put bean acres at 75.269 million which is lower than their January estimate of 76.7 and much lower than the Ag Forum prediction of near 78 million acres. Rain continues to delay soybean harvest in the northern and central sections of Brazil. This could increase near term US export sales. The trade will be closely watching this. In the overnight trade corn closed up 9 cents, beans were 6 cents higher and wheat closed up 7 cents. Look for the markets to start off higher today and then be driven by funds activity and any pertinent news stories. Outside markets are all stronger so far this morning. The trade will be watching for any confirmation of corn sales to China.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 12 TO 14 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 20 TO 22 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 20 TO 21 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 19 1/2 cents on Wednesday on continued liquidation in the corn market. There was talk in the trade that up to 9 cargoes of corn were not able to unload at Japanese ports yesterday due to damage from the earthquake. Cash corn prices have now fallen $1.25 in less than two weeks. The nuclear situation in Japan is still very serious and will be monitored very closely by the trade. The market is anxiously awaiting the March 31st acreage and stocks report. Some think that the corn stocks and acreage number may come out higher than expected. The soybean market closed 17 cents higher on Wednesday as a rally in the Japanese stock market helped support grains and other outside markets. Also talk of heavy rains to continue in Brazil into next week will cause harvest delays and possibly quality issues. There was also talk in the trade yesterday that China's soybean acreage may fall by as much as 11% this year. With current corn and soybean revenue rates favoring corn, less soybeans may also be planted in the US for this coming growing season. In the overnight trade corn closed 13 cents higher, beans were up 21 1/2 cents nad wheat closed 20 cents higher. Look for the grain markets to open higher this morning and stay higher barring any new negative news out of Japan.
3-17-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 26 TO 28 CENTS HGIHER
WHEAT - 20 TO 22 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down the 30 cent limit yesterday. Corn is now down over $1.00 a bushel from the recent high set just a little over a week ago. Concerns over the impact of the severe eathquake that rocked Japan last Friday and new worries over radiation leaks from the damaged nuclear plants turned the grain markets upside down. Reports that as many as 14 ports were closed along the northern coast of Japan added to the fear that export demand and shipments to Japan would be negatively impacted. The stock market and other outside markets were down sharply yesterday as a result of the bearish news out of Japan. The soybean market also closed limit lower yesterday as all of the negative news out of Japan collapsed prices. Funds did some panic selling yesterday and exited out of nearly 16,000 soybean contracts on new fears of radiation leaks from the damaged power plants. Japan faces a host of problems including power outages, damaged infrastructure, ports closed and many other things that will take many years to repair and replace. The World's 3rd largest economy has been devastated and it's impact will be felt for many years to come. Our hearts go out to the Japanese people as they try to overcome this huge disaster. The overnight markets have regained some of yesterdays severe losses. Corn closed 7 cents higher, beans were 26 cents higher, and wheat closed up 7 cents in the overnight trade. Look for the markets to open higher this morning as a result of stronger outside markets. Equity markets recovered throughout the world and even the Japanese stock market was up 6% after sharp losses yesterday.
3-15-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 15 TO 18 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 12 TO 15 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 22 TO 24 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents higher on Monday after losing 60 cents during last weeks heavy liquidation. This was the first time in a week that the corn market actually closed higher. The funds were buyers nearly 5000 contracts of corn yesterday. The trade is still trying to figure out what impact the earthquake and tsunami in Japan will have on commodities. Some in the trade feel that it will lead to reduced imports because of infrastructure problems, while others feel that Japan will need to buy more grain products once things get under control over there. In the meantime some regions in Brazil continue to experience wet conditions and are having problems getting soybeans harvested. This is also reducing double crop prospects for corn. Some are estimating that as much as 1 million acres will not get planted and corn production numbers will have to be lowered. The soybean market closed 5 1/2 cents higher yesterday as funds resumed buying of commodities. Some in the trade are lowering their estimates on the size of Brazil's soybean crop due to wet conditions in the Northern regions. Concerns still exist in the trade that more acres may be switched into corn this spring and take away bean acres. Current market prices continue to support raising corn over beans. Some in the trade feel that corn acres will fall between 92 to 94 million acres this spring. In the overnight trade corn futures closed down 17 cents, beans were down 12 cents and wheat closed down 22 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning due to another explosion at the Fukishima power plant in Japan. This caused more radiation to leak into the atmosphere and caused a big drop in the stock markets overnight. Outside markets are also sharply lower this morning. Look for the grain markets to open lower in line with the overnight settlements.
3-14-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 13 TO 16 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 18 1/2 cents on Friday after the earthquake and resulting tsunami caused a lot of uncertainty and upheavel in the stock markets and global economies. The worlds third largest economy was dealt a major setback with a lot of questions as to how long it may impact Japan and other economies throughout the world . Funds continued to exit commodities and crude oil on Friday. Old crop corn futures dropped 60 cents for the week. Japan is the largest US corn customer and traders became uncertain as to how much damage was actually caused to the grain facilities. The soybean market closed down 21 cents on Friday as a result of liquidation in the commodities markets. There was little in the way of support prior to the problems in Japan and the devastation there only added more uncertainty in the grain trade. Fears of problems with nuclear plants and questions about Japan's ability to receive grain with all of the infrastructure problems remains a big concern. Corn and soybean prices continued to follow crude oil prices lower in the overnight trade. Corn futures closed down another 5 cents, beans were down 14 cents and wheat closed down another 6 1/2 cents on the overnight trade. Outside markets are all lower this morning and will spill over into commodities as well. Look for grain prices to be lower this morning in line with the overnight trade.
3-11-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 18 TO 21 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 29 TO 31 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 21 TO 25 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 18 cents lower yesterday after the USDA Supply-Demand report was released on Thursday morning. The report came out pretty much as expected with no major surprises. The news that China had there first trade deficit in 7 years sent repercussions throughout the stock market and also weakened the grain markets. Concern that the economic recovery may be struggling has caused some concern in the marketplace. Funds sold an estimated 15,000 contracts of corn yesterday. The corn prices have declined by 44 cents this week. One major fund company has exited commodities and has caused some concern that others may soon follow. The soybean market closed up 6 1/2 cents on Thursday following a nuetral USDASupply-Demand report. Many in the trade felt that the recent sell off had been overdone and some light buying returned to the soybean pit. A soybean sale yesterday of 116,000 MT to unknown destinations was announced for the current marketing year. Carryout stocks still remain very tight and the trade realizes that more acres will need to be planted this year to soybeans. A huge earthquake rocked Japan last night and has caused a large tsunami to occur in the Pacific Ocean. This has caused the overnight grain markets to fall dramatically. In the overnight trade corn has dropped 20 cents, bean were down 30 cents and wheat closed down 21 1/2 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning amidst all of the uncertainty in Asia with the earthquake and Tsunami.
3-10-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 8 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 12 TO 15 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 10 TO 12 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
USDA released their latest figures on the Monthly Supply-Demand report this morning. There were no real surprises that came about as a result of the report. Corn carryout numbers rermained unchanged from February at 675 million bushels. The trade was expecting a slightly lower number of 667. USDA also left soybean ending stocks unchanged at 140 million bushels for the second month in a row. USDA raised 2010-11 ending stocks for wheat by 25 million bushels to 843. This was slightly higher than the average guess of 810 million bushels. World ending stocks for corn and beans rose only slightly and world wheat stocks were up the most at an increase of 4 MMT over the February numbers. Brazil's soybean crop was raised by 1.5 MMT but Argentina's crop remained unchanged from the February figures. Since there were no big surprises on this report the trade will now start to focus their attention on the Prospective Planting and Quarterly Grain Stocks report due out on March 31st. In the overnight trade corn closed down 9 cents, beans were down 15 cents and wheat closed down 12 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements. Lower outside markets could keep grain prices on the defensive today
3-9-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - UNCHANGED TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 12 cents lower on Tuesday on continued liquidation in the grain markets. No new positive news has surfaced to keep the bullish momentum going in the short term. USDA will release their monthly supply-demand numbers tommorrow morning. The average estimate on corn stocks is 665 million bushels which is down slightly from February's estimate of 675. If this number comes out close to expectations then the traders will turn their attention to the upcoming acreage report to be released on March 31st. The trade is currently looking for corn acreage to come out near 92 million acres. The soybean market closed down 13 cents yesterday on continued technical selling that began a couple of days ago. A defensive tone was strengthened when China announced that they would likely be expanding the sale of government owned stocks in the coming weeks ahead. The weather in Argentina remains favorable for crop development, however, heavy rains in Brazil have slowed down soybean harvest activity. If wet weather continues there then some in the trade feel that US export demand could pick up. In the overnight trade corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents higher, beans were up a penny and wheat closed 8 1/2 cents higher. Look for the markets to start out higher this morning but expect a two sided trade today ahead of the USDA report which will be released tommorrow morning.
3-8-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 10 TO 12 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 6 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 10 1/2 cents yesterday on continued fund liquidation. We may have seen some position squaring ahead of the Supply and Demand report which will be released on Thursday morning. No major changes are expected in the US numbers but sometimes we get surprised. Some in the trade are also thinking that the ethanol tax credit will not be extended for next year. Export shipments released yesterday morning came out at a strong 43.9 million bushels. USDA announced a sale yesterday of 150,000 MT of US corn to Mexico. Export demand continues to remain very strong despite the high prices. The soybean market closed 19 cents lower on Monday on talk that the Argentina dock strike was settled. This could reduce the chances of any additional export sales for soybeans switched to the US. An improving forecast in South America and concerns over demand being stiffled by higher crude oil prices also had a negative impact on soybean prices yesterday. Export inspections came out below expectations at 26.4 million bushels. Brazil's soybean harvest is now approaching 25% complete with yields coming in very good so far. In the overnight trade corn futures closed down 5 1/2 cents, beans were 10 cents lower and wheat closed down 6 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements but then find support at these lower levels.
3-7-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 8 1/2 cents lower on Friday after opening higher. Profit taking was evident prior to the weekend. Informa released their world production numbers leaving Argentina and Brazil's corn production unchanged from last month. Mexico's corn production was only down 700 MT from lasr month but still higher than last year by 2.9 MMT. The numbers were looked on as slightly bearish in the trade. The reduction in Mexican corn production was expected to be lower as a result of the recent frost there. Continued rains in Brazil may have resulted in a reduction of 30% of the corn in the Matto Grosso due to a failure in the ability to double crop. This could reduce corn production by as much as 2.2 MMT. The soybean market closed 2 cents higher on Friday on ideas that labor problems in Argentina could drive more soybean business to the US. Also rains in Brazil are slowing soybean harvest and rising crude oil prices helped to support the soybean market. Informa's estimates of world production were a little negative. Informa raised Argentina's soybean production by 3 MMT up to 52 MMT and Brazil's production was raised by 2.1 MMT up to 71.4. In the overnight trade corn and beans closed up 2 cents and wheat closed up a penny. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements. Trade is expected today to be on both sides of the close.
3-4-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 15 cents higher on Thursday on another week of strong export sales. Corn export sales came out at a very strong 42.5 million bushels. Japan and Mexico were the top buyers of US corn last week followed by Cuba and South Korea. As long as exports remain this strong, it should continue to support higher prices. With the run up in crude oil prices, ethanol has been able to keep up with the rising corn prices and there continues to be good incentives for blenders to keep using ethanol in their products. The soybean market closed 18 cents higher yesterday on strong export sales and on ideas that the labor strike in Argentina may push more business to the US. The US dollar is currently at a 4 month low and this is helping to support US exports. Soybean export sales came in at 13.3 million bushels with the leading buyers being China followed by Japan. Recent rains in South America has slowed soybean harvest and heavy rains are in the forecast for next week. Conditions at the Argentina ports are still uncertain. There has been some talk that Argentina may restrict or even increase export taxes. In the overnight trade corn closed up 3 cents, bean were up 7 cents and wheat closed 8 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
3-3-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 14 cents lower on Wednesday as funds sold 16,000 contracts of corn. Corn prices have gone up $2.00 per bushel since harvest time and was approaching the 32 month high yesterday. Nervousness came about in the corn market as a result of feelings that the corn might be in an over bought position and profit taking surfaced. It is believed that continued unrest in the Middle East could limit fund buying in corn. There has been some talk that the UN may implement measures to try to put a stop to the unrest in Libya to keep it from spreading into other countires of the Middle East. The soybean market closed 19 cents higher yesterday despite lower corn and wheat closes. Funds bought 2500 contracts of soybeans yesterday. Soybeans were supported by sharply higher crude oil prices. There were some rumors circulating in the trade yesterday that China may have sone interest in purchasing beans from either the US or Brazil for nearby shipment. These rumors still remain unconfirmed. Heavy rainfall continues to slow soybean harvest in central Brazil and more precipitation is expected through next week. In the overnight trade corn closed up 3 1/2 cents, beans were 2 cents higher and wheat closed up 7 1/2 cents. This morning look for the markets to open higher with a two sided trade possible today.
3-2-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 13 TO 15 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 cents higher on Tuesday after being lower for much of the session. Funds bought nearly 5000 contracts of corn yesterday on ideas that double cropping of corn in Brazil may be slowed or even abandoned on wet weather conditions over there. Some in the trade believe that the wet weather in Brazil is delaying soybean harvest and it may become too late to double crop corn following beans. This could result in a loss of nearly 10 MMT of corn production in that region. This could be bullish for US corn exports this fall. There has been some talk in the trade that up to 6 cargoes of US ethanol have been sold to Brazil. We will have to wait for confirmation on this. The soybean market closed 10 cents higher on Tuesday in a late session rally. Central Brazil is receiving above average rainfall and is beginning to impact soybean harvest there and also double cropping of corn. Current production estimates out of Brazil range from 68.5 to 70.5 MMT of soybeans. Argentina soybean estimates have increased by 1.5 MMT in the past couple of weeks due to recents rains which have improved soybean crop prospects.There is talk that China may be interested in purchasing beans for April or May shipment. China's soybean prices continue to climb to levels near $17.75 per bushel. In the overnight trade corn closed 4 cents higher, beans were up 14 cents and wheat closed 2 cents lower. Look for corn and beans to open higher this morning. forecasts for March weather are coming out cold nad wet which is not conducive to early planting.
2-28-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 9 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 26 cents higher on Friday on a very strong export sales report. Corn exports came out at a marketing year high of 59.2 million bushels. Most of those sales were made to Mexico and Japan. Strong export sales sparked renewed fund buying in commodities on Friday. The ever tightening carryout levels in corn continue to cause nervousness in the grain markets. This will put even more pressure on the U.S. to raise a good corn crop in 2011-2012. Weather worries will continue to be troublesome in the coming growing season. The soybean market closed 47 cents higher on Friday on new fund buying stimulated by strong export sales in both corn and wheat. Soybean export sales were a little disappointing coming out at only 4.9 million bushels. Funds, however, were still aggresive buyers on Friday purchasng nearly 10,000 contracts of soybeans. With soybean stocks at historically low levels, this is creating interest by the funds. Some funds were believed to have gotten out of oil stocks on Friday and put more money into commodities. In the overnight trade corn closed down a penny, beans were 9 cents lower and wheat closed down 5 cents. Look for the markets to start off lower this morning and then mount a recovery effort during the session. The continued trouble in the Middle East will keep food prices in the spotlight.
2-25-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 cents lower yesterday on concern that higher oil prices could cause an economic slowdown which would be negative for demand of agricultural products. Saudia Arabia is increasing their crude oil production in order to offset some of the reductions out of Libya. This should help to slow the run up in crude oil prices, at least in the short term. Corn carryout levels still remain very tight and the world is relying on the US to produce a very good crop to help with worldwide shortages of grain. Any weather problems this spring in the US could trigger some sharp moves in commodity prices. The soybean market closed two cents lower on Thursday on some continued liquidation. The USDA Outlook Conferences put soybean plantings at 78 million acres which was right in line with the baseline projections. The January soybean crush came in a little lower than expected at 149.2 million bushels. With an incease of double crop acres to soybeans, they have estimated a carryout around 160 million bushels. South American weather continues favorable for crop development and soybean production estimates out of Argentina have been raised by 1.7 MMT. Increased production out of South America will help to keep our carryout numbers from dwindling even lower. In the overnight trade corn closed 5 cents higher, beans were up 3 cents and wheat closed 7 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning as some technical recovery is likely in the grain markets today.
2-24-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 9 TO 11 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 5 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 12 cents higher yesterday after being limit down on Tuesday. Fund buying was renewed on ideas that the limit down move was overdone. A weaker dollar also helped to support prices yesterday. The USDA Outlook Conference will be estimating planted acreage at their meetings starting today and corn acreage is estimated at 91.5 million acres. That number is below the 92 million acres estimated on the baseline projection which came out last week. The corn market may have to improve in order to attract more acres to restore supplies to a more comfortable level. The soybean market closed 22 cents higher yesterday after hosting a limit down day on Tuesday. Renewed buying by both the funds and commercials ran prices up sharply on the close. Higher oil prices are causing some concern about the economic stability of the world after trying to recover from the last major recession. This has weighed on grain prices over the last couple of days. Generally higher oil prices help to run grain prices higher but economic fears have overshadowed that lately. At USDA's Annual Outlook Conference, soybean plantings are expected to come out at 78 million acres which is unchanged from the baseline projections. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 cents, beans were 9 cents lower and wheat closed down 3 1/2 cents. Look for the markets to open lower today possibly followed by a rally attempt later in the session.
2-23-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 19 TO 21 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 12 TO 14 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up 22 cents yesterday on renewed fund buying as the recent price break was probably overdone. Better than expected exports released yesterday morning helped to fuel the rally. Corn export sales came out at 40.6 million bushels which was led by Mexico with nearly 60% of that total. The Chinese are also considering the possibility of lowering import duties on many food items which would be good for commodities. The European Union is also considering this move which points to their increasing need for grains. The soybean market closed 38 cents higher on Thursday on encouraging news out of China that they were considering lowering import duties to combat food inflation. Funds renewed their buying interest on that bullish news. Weather forecasts for Argentina are considered favorable for crop development as most areas will see rain over the next ten days. The Northern crop areas are expected to see the best chances for rain. Brazil is also expected to see showers over the next two weeks.The Northeast region is the driest and could use some additional moisture. There was also some talk in the trade that China may have purchased 4 cargos of beans and two cargos of soybean oil from Brazil overnight. In the overnight trade corn closed down 6 cents, beans were 20 cents lower and wheat closed down 12 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
2-17-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 12 TO 14 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed unchanged yesterday after a couple of days of lower closes. Ideas that farmers would plant 92 million acres or more to corn this spring triggered the sell off. Some of the commercials looked on the lower prices as a buying opportunity and prices started to recover. Ending stocks for corn remain very tight at only 675 million bushels and will limit any major stebacks in prices. The weekly export sales report will be watched very closely this morning to see if the demand remains on the sluggish side or shows some improvement. The trade will be looking for a number above 25 million bushels to stay on pace with USDA's projections. The soybean market closed two cents lower yesterday in another day of liquidation by the funds. The funds were sellers of 3500 contracts of soybeans on Wednesday. In the past week soybean prices have dropped 90 cents per bushel. Recent rains in Argentina and Brazil have improved the soybean crop prospects and have wieghed heavily on soybean prices. Cancellations out of China have also impacted price direction as nearly 15,000 MT of soybean sales have been cancelled over the past couple of days. Export sales numbers will be very important this morning as the trade will be looking for some more possible cancellations. In the overnight trade corn closed up 8 1/2 cents, beans were 13 cents higher and wheat closed up 10 cents. Export sales on corn came out at 40 million bushels, beans at 19 million bushels and wheat at 22. These numbers should be nuetral to somewhat freindly to price direction this morning.
2-16-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 6 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 7 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 11 cents lower on Monday on profit taking as the funds reduced some of their long positions. Corn export inspections came in a little lower than expected yesterday at 26.1 million bushels. USDA issued their baseline Supply and demand projections yesterday for the US budget. They put corn plantings at 92 million acres which is up 3.8 million from last year. Corn production was estimated at 13.755 billion bushels using a yield of 162 BPA. These numbers would leave corn carryouts at close to the current numbers. If current corn prices remain the same or run a litle higher then more acres could end up being planted to corn this spring if the weather permits. The soybean market closed 13 cents lower yesterday as South America's soybean crop has benefited from the recent rains. Some in the trade feel that Brazil's soybean crop estimates may be raised to 70 to 71 MMT which is up 2 to 3 MMT from earlier estimates. Argentina's soybean crop is estimated to come in around 50 MMT. It has been estimated that 9% of Brazil's soybean crop has been harvested vs 7% on average. USDA released their acreage projections yesterday increasing US soybean acreage estimates by 600,000 acres to near 78 million. Soybean crush numbers came in about as expected at 144.6 million buhels, however, soybean oil stocks were higher than expected putting preesure on soybean prices yesterday. In the overnight trade corn closed down 1 1/2 cents, beans were 6 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 8 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
2-14-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
WHEAT - 10 TO 12 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 8 cents higher on Friday on news out of Mexico that a recent frost has reduced the size of their corn crop. As a result of this, Mexico has already purchased 210,000 tons of corn and this will likely lead to more corn purchases form the U.S. Most of the corn they will need will be white corn which is used in making tortillas. March corn futures closed above the $7.00 mark on Friday which is the highest level we have seen since 2008. Corn prices continue to be supported by the friendly USDA February crop report which dropped corn carryout stocks to 675 million bushels. The soybean market closed 17 cents lower on Friday as soybean crop prospects continued to improve in South America. Argentina did receive some unexpected showers over the weekend and more rain is expected there later this week. A larger crop in South America is likely to reduce the amount of acres needed out of the US this spring. More acres could likely swing to corn this planting season. In the overnight trade corn closed nearly unchanged, beans were down a penny and wheat closed up 10 cents. Iraq bought 350,000 tons of wheat of which the majority came from the US. This morning look for the markets to open in line with the overnight settlements. Look for wheat to be the leader today as the markets show increased concerns about winter kill in the US Plains.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 9 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 12 TO 14 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 10 TO 13 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 2 cents yesterday on better rain chances for Argentina and on long liquidation in the marketplace. Funds sold nearly 7000 contracts of corn on Monday. A stronger dollar and weaker outside markets also added to the sell off. In Argentina, better chances for precipitation will fall this week across some of the drier areas helping to sustain additional losses. Argentina's corn crop is expected to come in at 19.5 MMT which continues to drop from earlier estimates in the low 20's. Informa updated their acreage estimates on Friday putting the corn planting number at 90.9 million acres. This is up 128,000 acres from the December estimates and up 2.6 million acres from last year. The soybean market closed 8 cents lower on Monday mostly on an improved weather forecast for South America. Soybean crop sizes out of Argentina continue to come in around 47 MMT and Brazil which has had more rain is expected to produce a crop of around 67 MMT. Better chances for rain are expected this week which should stabilize or even improve the soybean crop. Informa released their soybean acreage estimates on Friday putting the soybean number at 76.6 million acres which is down by 911,000 acres from last December's estimate. In the overnight trade corn closed down 9 cents, beans were 12 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 11 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements. Lower outside markets and a stronger dollar will likely keep downward pressure on grain prices today.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 13 cents higher on Thursday after starting off the session lower. There was talk yesterday that China was going to raise their interest rates to slow down inflation which gave the markets a negative tone early in the session. The recent rains in Argentina probably helped the bean crops more than the corn. Yesterday some of the analysts lowered their corn crop estimate in Argentina down to 19.5 MMT. USDA had their corn crop estimated at 23.5 MMT a couple of weeks ago. This helped to rally corn prices later in the session. Today, Informa will release their acreage estimates. The soybean market closed 3 cents higher yesterday after being down more than 20 cents during the session. Talk of China trying to keep down inflation was hard on the grain markets during the opening session. Recent rains in South America with more predicted into next week also weighed on values. Rains will still benefit the Argentine soybean crop and some of the new estimates out of Argentina have kept the soybean crop at 47 MMT. China is expected to buy around 2 MMT of new crop beans from the US in the next couple of days. Informa will release their soybean acreage estimates today. In December, they estimated the acres for soybeans at 77.56 million acres. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were down 3 1/2 cents and wheat also closed down a penny. Look for the markets to open in line with the overnight settlements.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 6 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 18 cents on Wednesday after opening 4 to 5 cents higher. The corn market came under heavy selling pressure as the funds sold nearly 7000 contracts of corn yesterday. Rumors were circulating in the trade that the Chinese had secured 500,000 MT of feed wheat from Australia. This was believed it would reduce the need for Chinese corn purchases that were expected to be made this summer. That weighed heavily on corn prices yesterday as profit taking drove prices lower. On top of that, rain was expected to fall across the drier areas of Argentina over the next couple of days along with more chances into next week. The soybean market closed 2 cents lower on Wednesday after opening nearly 20 cents higher. Soybean prices rallied early on talks that China was interested in buying over 2 MMT of US beans during their visit here this week. The rally in beans quickly eroded as news that the Chinese also wanted to secure some Australian wheat for feed purposes. Talk of increased rain chances over the next couple of weeks in South America also tempered prices. In the overnight trade corn closed down 6 cents, beans were 8 cents lower and wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents. Today look for prices to open lower in line with the overnight settlements.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 6 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 24 cents higher following the USDA report on Wednesday morning. USDA cut corn production by 93 million bushels and reduced the carryout down to 745 million bushels from 832. Argentina corn production was lowered from 25 MMT to 23.5. Argentina's weather problems continue on the minds of the traders. All of this bullish news pushed corn prices to 30 month highs. New fund buying along with renewed commercial interest in corn sparked prices. The soybean market closed 58 cents higher on Wednesday after the bullish USDA report sparked renewed buying interest. On the USDA report soybean production was lowered by 48 million bushels and ending stocks dropped by 25 million bushels down to 140 million bushels. The USDA dropped the Argentine soybean production down to 50.5 MMT from their previous estimate of 52 MMT. Argentina's weather continues to be hot and dry and some market analysts are estimating the final crop size to come in around 46 MMT. In the overnight trade corn closed up 9 cents, bean closed up 6 cents and wheat was up 6 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements. If a two sided trade does develop today look for the markets to be well supported on any setbacks in prices as the trade will look on that as a buying opportunity.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 5 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 12 cents higher on Monday on continued hot and dry forecasts for Argentina for this week. There was also a rumor circulating in the trade yesterday that China may have some interest in buying US corn but nothing has yet been confirmed. USDA will release the long awaited final crop production report in the morning. The average guess for corn production is at 12.502 billion bushels which is 38 million bushels below USDA's November's estimate. The average yield comes in at 154.2 BPA which is just a little lower than the 154.3 estimated by USDA in November. The corn carryover number is projected to come in at 779 million bushels which is 53 million bushels lower than USDA's December estimate. The soybean market closed 15 1/2 cents higher on Monday on dry weather in South America and on renewed fund buying. Funds bought an estimated 5000 contracts of soybeans yesterday. On tomorrows USDA report the average guess for US soybean production came in at 3.373 billion bushels which is only 2 million bushels less than USDA's November estimate. The soybean ending stocks are projected at 156 million bushels vs USDA's December estimate of 165. In the overnight trade corn, beans and wheat all closed 5 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning one day ahead of the USDA reports.
1-10-11
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents lower on Friday on continued fund selling. Index fund rebalancing is expected to take place much of this week with some in the trade thinking that more selling of corn will occur. Informa released their estimates on Thursday putting the Argentine corn production at 23.75 MMT which is only down .65MMT from the previous month. They left Brazilian corn production at 53.2MMT which was unchanged from last month. Many were expecting much lower numbers. On Wednesday, USDA will release their final production numbers and their latest supply demand estimates. In the meantime, Argentina's weather is forecast to be mostly hot and dry this week. The soybean market closed 13 cents lower on Friday and ended up the week at 38 cents lower. Continued fund liquidation and rebalancing provided resistance to any rally attempts last week. Brazil's weather has been mostly favorable for crop development except for a dry pocket in the Rio Grande Do Sul area. Informa estimated the Argentine soybean production at 52.8 MMT which was above USDA's December's estimate of 52.0. They estimated Brazil's soybean production at 69.3MMT which was above USDA's December estimate of 67.5. In the overnight trade corn and beans closed up 5 cents and wheat closed 1 1/2 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning as a result of stronger outside markets.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 4 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 11 cents higher on Wednesday after opening lower early in the session. The market opened lower on strength in the dollar, weakness in the outside markets and pressure from the talk of increased rain amounts in South America. The markets quickly turned around on talk of Chinese soybean purchases and on renewed fund buying. The trade still remains concerned about tight carryover stocks of both corn and beans and will position themselves ahead of the final crop production numbers to be released by USDA on January 12th. Some in the trade feel that the US Dollar will continue to rally as we go into the new year as the economy strengthens. This could weigh on commodity prices. The soybean market closed 24 cents higher yesterday after getting off to a sluggish start. Bearish outside markets and talk of increased rains in Argentina resulted in the lower early trade but the market quickly turned around as funds became buyers. In Argentina more rain is expected in the dry southern regions early in the week only to be followed by drier and warmer conditions next week. Brazil is expected to see decent rains over the next two weeks which will be good for crop development. The trade will be looking for lower soybean production numbers for South America on next week's report. Private estimates will be released later this week. Demand for soybeans has remained strong despite prices in the teens. In the overnight trade corn closed 1 1/2 cents lower, beans were down 2 cents and wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents. Look for the markets to open lower in line with the overnight settlements.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher on Monday as the optimism continued in the grain trade. Funds continued to add length to their positions on strong ethanol usage and on concerns over crop conditions in Argentina. Argentina did receive some rain over the past weekend but it will not be enough to sustain the crop for very long. It has been estimated that over 50% of the corn crop in Argentina remains very dry and hot and dry conditions are forecast over much of the area for the next 7 to 10 days. There was talk in the trade yesterday that Russia may extend the current export ban beyond July 1st, 2011if conditions this spring don't improve crop prospects. The soybean market closed 16 1/2 cents higher on Monday as the funds bought 5000 contracts of soybeans. Demand for soybeans remains strong as China continues to buy record amounts of soy products. China confirmed that they have imported a record 5.48 MMT of soybeans during the month of November. That is almost double what they imported last year. Argentina weather looks to be hot and dry over the next two weeks with only minimal amounts of rain expected mainly in the northern areas. Southern areas remain critically dry. In the overnight trade corn closed up 1/2 cent, beans were up 1 1/2 cents and wheat closed 2 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
12-20-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 10 TO 12 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 10 TO 12 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 cents higher on Friday on bullish news as the passage of the tax bill extended the ethanol tax credit of 45 cents for another year. The 54 cent import duty on ethanol was also extended through 2011. On Friday, Informa released their corn acreage estimates for next year coming in at 90.7 million acres which is 2.3 million acres less than their November estimate. Last year, farmers planted 88.2 million acres to corn. Informa put the final corn production estimate at 12.54 billion bushels which was in line with USDA's last estimate. Cattle on feed numbers, released on Friday afternoon, came in at 106% of last year which will lead to a strong feed demand in the coming months. The soybean market closed 10 cents higher on Friday as the bio-fuel tax credits were also extended through 2011 with the passage of the tax bill. Informa released their soybean acreage estimate on Friday putting their acreage estimate on beans at 77.5 million which was higher than their last estimate of 75.8. Last year farmers planted 77.7 million acres to soybeans. The final US soybean production was estimated at 3.38 billion bushels which was just slightly higher than USDA's November estimate. The heat wave in Argentina is expected to continue this week with only a slight chance of rain on Thursday. Rainfall totals over the weekend came in slightly lower than expected. In the overnight trade corn closed up 5 cents, beans were up 11 cents and wheat closed up 11 cents. This morning look for the markets to open higher in line with the overnight settlements.
12-17-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher on Thursday on concern that the Argentina corn crop may see further reductions as hot dry weather takes its toll on the crop. Temperatures have been in the 85 to 100 degree range over the past couple of weeks with conditions only getting drier every day. Ethanol subsides got extended for another year at the full 45 cents per gallon tax credit and the import tariff was also retained at the full 54 cents per gallon amount through the end of 2011. Informa will be releasing their final crop production numbers today along with their acreage estimates. This could give the market some direction today. The soybean market closed 7 1/2 cents lower yesterday as export sales numbers came in at only 3.1 million bushels which was a marketing year low. Some increase in precipitation was added to the forecast for Central Argentina over the weekend but next weeks forecast remains hot and dry. The bio-diesel tax credit of $1 per gallon got extended with the passage of the new tax bill yesterday. Soybean farmers in Brazil may have to deal with a new soybean disease called mad soybean. The disease has been detected in Mato Grasso which is one of the largest soybean producing areas in Brazil. The disease causes the pods not to mature properly which causes a reduction in yields. Experts believe that soybean yields could be reduced by as much as 60%. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were down 5 cents and wheat closed 3 cents lower. Look for the markets to open in line with the overnight settlements and trade mostly on the positive side as the passage of the tax legislation should be friendly to the markets today.
12-16-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 3 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents lower on Wednesday after mounting an impressive 7 cent rally early in the trading session. Corn's failure to break through the March resistance level of 5.95 combined with the strengthening of the US dollar caused corn prices to close lower yesterday. Political unrest in some of the European countries continues to mount as concern over the debt crisis in countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain doesn't go away. Many economists are worried that these these countries won't be able to pay back creditors because of slow economic growth which is bring down the value of the Euro. Icing on the Illinois River is growing worse and looks like it will soon be closed to traffic North of Peoria. This has been widening the nearby basis levels. The soybean market closed 1/2 cent higher yesterday after being up 19 cents shortly after the opening. Concern over the hot,dry weather in Argentina got prices of to a valient start only to lose all of that ground as the dollar strengthened and funds turned to the sidelines. China has revised their 2010 soybean production upward to 15.2 million tons. That is almost 2% higher than last year. In the overnight trade corn closed up 2 cents, beans were up 4 cents and wheat closed up 2 cents. Look for the grains to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements. Any setbacks in prices should be well supported.
12-14-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 5 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 14 cents higher on Monday on a weaker dollar and stronger outside markets. Strong demand for corn continues as the ethanol grind is exceeding expectations. The ethanol tax credit of 45 cents is expected to get passed along with the tax bill in the next couple of days. Corn export inspections came in at 32 million bushels which was a little higher than the 26 to 31 million bushels expected. China's decision not to raise interest rates yesterday helped to stimulate renewed fund interest in commodities. Funds purchased nearly 9000 contracts of corn yesterday. Argentina weather also looms largely in the minds of the traders as the crop grows nearer to the critical phase of pollination. The soybean market closed 29 1/2 cents higher yesterday on the good news out of China not to raise interest rates and on a sharply weaker US dollar. Funds bought nearly 6000 contracts of beans. In Argentina, some of the driest areas missed most of the rain over the weekend, however, forecasts are calling for more chances of rain this coming weekend. China announced overnight that their country has ample supplies of vegetable oil and other necessary grains. More than likely a tactic on their part to try to lower grain prices. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 cents, beans were 2 cents higher and wheat closed down 7 cents. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning and likely trade on both sides of the close.
12-13-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 11 TO 13 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed unchanged on Friday as traders reacted to the Supply-Demand report which was released on Friday morning. Ahead of the report, traders were expecting the USDA to lower the exports and raise ethanol usage. On USDA's report, they raised corn ending stocks by 5 million bushels up to 832 million bushels from the 827 million bushels on the November report. The increase was said to be due to a 5 million bushel increase in imports from Canada. The report was looked on as slightly bearish for corn by the trade and some profit taking was seen early in the trading session on Friday. South American corn and bean production numbers also remained unchanged from the November report. The soybean market closed down 8 1/2 cents on Friday on bearishness from the USDA report and on a wetter forecast for Argentina. On the USDA Supply-Demand report released Friday morning, soybean carryout numbers came in about as expected at 165 million bushels. That was 20 million bushels lower than the numbers released on the November report. USDA now expects soybean exports to total 1.59 billion bushels which is up 20 million bushels from last month. Over the weekend, better than expected rains fell in the northern areas of Argentina , however, most of the southern areas missed the rains. In the overnight trade corn closed up 4 cents, beans were up 12 cents and wheat closed up 6 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements. Strength in the overnight markets came from rumors that China may have purchased 1 to 2 cargoes of US soybeans and from stronger energy markets.
12-9-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 12 cents higher on Wednesday on reports that the latest ethanol grind numbers are higher than previously thought. The latest numbers equate to an annual corn grind of 5.3 billion bushels compared to the current USDA projections of only 4.8 billion bushels. These numbers are based on positive margins and in the last couple of weeks ethanol margins have turned negative. These levels of production will be harder to maintain on negative margins. USDA will release their December Supply-Demand numbers tomorrow morning. Corn carryout stocks are estimated at 806 million bushels compared with the November numbers of 827. The soybean market closed 10 cents higher yesterday on continued concern over the South American soybean crop. Argentina remains very dry in many places and current production forecasts continue to drop. Some are looking for soybean production to be as much as 5 MMT lower than last year. USDA will estimate soybean stocks on their report tomorrow morning. The trade is looking for a bean carryout number of 160 million bushels with the range of guesses falling between 98 to 198. The November stocks were estimated at 185 million bushels. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 1/2 cents, beans were 1 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed up 4 cents. Look for choppy trade today as markets will likely show some evening up prior to tomorrow's Supply-Demand report.
12-8-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 10 TO 12 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 6 1/2 cents on Tuesday after starting off the day in positive territory. Commodities opened higher on strength in equities and crude oil prices. Later in the session corn prices dropped due to a strengthening of the dollar which sparked renewed fund liquidation. Bearishness also came from ideas that Argentina received up to an inch of rain in some of the driest areas over the past couple of days. This, however, will not be enough to offset the big deficits that have occurred over the past couple of months. The weather there will be monitored very closely in the weeks ahead. The soybean market closed 3 cents lower yesterday on some minor fund liquidation and lower outside markets. Friday the USDA will be releasing the Supply Demand report which is expected to show a decrease in soybean carryout numbers. Strong export demand mostly to China will likely lower soybean inventories again this month. Carryout numbers for soybeans could eventually drop below last year's 151 million bushels. In the overnight trade corn closed down 4 cents, beans were 9 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 8 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning on renewed strength in the dollar and a lack of buying enthusiasm by either the funds or commercials.
12-7-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 12 TO 14 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 9 TO 11 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 1/2 cents lower on Monday as some light profit taking followed Friday's strong close. The downward price move was fueled by a stronger US Dollar which tends to weaken demand. The weekly export inspection report released on Monday morning did not help the cause by coming in at 25.2 million bushels. That was lower than the trade expectations of between 28 to 32. USDA will release their supply demand estimates on Friday December 10th. The trade is not expecting any change in corn production but there could be some small adjustment to the stocks numbers. The soybean market closed down 12 cents yesterday on talk of increased rain chances across dry regions of Argentina. The latest weather forecasts call for widespread moisture to occur this weekend which should bring some relief to the dry areas in Northern Argentina. Drier conditions are expected next week. Some in the trade are already looking for this year's crop to be at least 1 mmt lower than last year and realize that if the current weather pattern continues it could be much lower. In the overnight trade corn closed up 7 3/4 cents, beans were up 14 cents and wheat closed up 8 1/2 cents. Look for all commodities to open higher this morning. A weaker dollar and a stronger energy and equity market should help support grain prices today.
12-6-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - STEADY
WHEAT - 9 TO 11 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up 18 cents on Friday as fund buying once again ignited the commodities markets led by a weaker dollar. The US Dollar was sharply lower on news that the unemployment rate for November increased to 9.8% from 9.6% earlier. This was the highest rate seen since back in April of 2010. Concerns over the Australian wheat crop have also been influential in the price surge. Recent heavy precipitation in Australia is continuing to damage the wheat crop there. Current forecasts are calling for more precipitation to occur over the next couple of weeks which could further damage the crop. A new proposal was announced in the Senate last week to extend the ethanol tax credit at a reduced 36 cent a gallon rate. The soybean market closed 20 1/2 cent higher on Friday on weakness in the US Dollar that inspired fund buying in the grain pits. Argentina did receive some rainfall over the weekend, however, not enough to alleviate the overall dry conditions that exist there. Showers are forecast to increase for next week but no general widespread rain is expected. Brazil continues to receive adequate moisture except in the extreme southern regions. In the overnight trade corn closed down 5 cents, beans were 1/2 cent higher and wheat closed up 10 cents. Today look for the markets to open mixed this morning with prices likely to find some support during the session. The strength in the dollar will be offset by the weather problems that still exist in Argentina and Australia.
12-3-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 7 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 7 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 20 TO 22 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 11 cents lower on Thursday as some fund liquidation was seen late in the trading session. Funds sold nearly 9000 contracts of corn yesterday. Corn exports came in within expectations yesterday at 29.8 million bushels. South Korea was the featured buyer followed by Mexico and Japan. There was some talk yesterday that a one year extension of the ethanol blend credit may be possible. Some in the trade also feel that the USDA may be under estimating the ethanol demand for corn by 150 to 400 million bushels if the current corn grind pace continues. The soybean market closed 3 cents lower yesterday on light noncommercial selling. Funds sold around 2000 contracts of beans on Thursday. Better chances of rain in Northern Argentina and Southern Brazil are now expected over the next couple of days. The rest of Argentina, however, is expected to remain dry over the next two weeks. Soybean export numbers came in at 49.3 million bushels which was a little higher than expectations. China was once again the featured buyer. In the overnight trade corn and beans closed up 8 cents and wheat closed 18 cents higher. A weaker dollar helped to provide support overnight along with stronger wheat prices. Look for the markets to open higher in line with the overnight settlements.
12-2-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 5 1/2 cents yesterday. Liquidation resumed again Monday in the corn trade as the marketplace exhibited continued nervousness about China's attempts to curb inflation and control rising food costs. A slowing down of the Chinese economy is looked on as a bearish signal to commodity prices. New tensions overnight have developed between North and South Korea as military exchanges have taken place between the two countries. The nature of the dispute has not yet been confirmed. It was reported yesterday that Ireland will accept a bailout package from the European Union to help alleviate their financial problems. The soybean market closed 20 cents higher yesterday as the trade becomes increasingly concerned over dryness in Argentina. Strong demand with weather concerns in South America are adding some weather premium back into the soybean market. China also announced that they will take an additional 5 MMT of US soybeans before the end of the marketing year. This helped to give the soybean market some support. Some precipitation has been taken out of the forecast for Argentina and Brazil over the next couple of weeks. Southern Brazil and Argentina are both in need of more moisture to insure good crop development there. In the overnight trade corn closed 5 cents lower, beans were down 2 cents and wheat closed 2 cents lower. Look for the markets to open in line with the overnight settlements.
11-22-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 21 cents on Friday as the negative tone in the grain markets continued for another day. An announcement by China that they were raising their bank reserve requirements by 50 basis points put pressure on the outside markets and lowered commodity prices. The government in Brazil on Friday acknowledged their first case of Mad Cow disease. Weather conditions in South America have been on the dry side. Reports out of Argentina have stated that farmers are holding off on planting corn until rainfall alleviates some of the dry conditions there. A strong La Nina remains in place and usually creates dry conditions for South America. The soybean market closed 40 cents lower on Friday as the CME announced a big increase in margin requirements for soybeans and soybean oil. Speculators will see an increase of over $1600 per contract and hedgers will pay $500 more per contract. This did not bode well for soybean prices on Friday. China also announced that they would be selling soybeans and vegetable oil from state reserves at weekly auctions starting this week. This is an attempt by the Chinese to stabilize prices there. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were up a dime and wheat closed up a penny. Look for the markets to open mixed to higher this morning as a weaker dollar should help to support commodity prices today.
11-19-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 6 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 17 TO 20 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 5 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 16 cents higher on Thursday as a weaker dollar and stronger outside markets helped pave the way for higher futures prices. Fund buying was evident yesterday and helped to support the grain market momentum. Weekly export sales came in a little disappointing at 21 million bushels. 26 million bushels is needed weekly to stay on pace with USDA's projections for the year of 1.95 billion bushels of demand. The overnight markets were a little softer this morning due to China increasing their countries bank reserve levels to slow down their rate of inflation. The soybean market closed 37 cents higher yesterday on a friendly export sales report and a weakening dollar index.The rally came on rumors that a Chinese official had recommended that the Chinese government not use price controls to curb inflation. China is expected to start selling soybeans and vegetable oils from their state reserves next week in which they hope to help stabilize their food prices. Typically in China, food prices tend to rise prior to the peak consuming season which is just before the Chinese New Year Holiday. In the overnight trade corn closed down 6 1/2 cents, beans were 17 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 5 1/2 cents. Today look for the markets to open lower in line with the overnight settlements. Expect choppy trade to keep prices on the defensive as we head into the weekend.
11-18-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 16 TO 18 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 30 TO 33 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 21 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down a penny on Wednesday in a much quieter day of trade. Gains of 9 to 10 cents early in the trading session quickly eroded as there was little bullish news to sustain the enthusiasm. Concerns still lingered in the trade about the economic conditions in China and limited the upside potential yesterday. Overnight the grain markets have turned around and have rallied sharply. Gains were attributed to a weakening of the dollar and the oversold conditions in the markets over the past couple of days. EPA is expected to give their final ruling by the end of the month on how much ethanol fuels will be sold next year. EPA proposed in July that 7.95% of gasoline sales next year would contain bio-fuels. The soybean market closed 15 cents lower yesterday as another day of long liquidation was evident in the marketplace. Traders continued to be concerned about China's attempts to control inflation and slow down the economy which could adversely affect demand for commodities.The funds sold an estimated 9000 contracts of soybeans on Wednesday. Some forecasters have increased the rain chances for Argentina for this weekend and into early next week. The dry areas of Argentina are expected to see some precipitation from this. In the overnight trade corn closed 16 1/2 cents higher, beans were up 30 1/2 cents and wheat closed up 21 1/2 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning on a weaker dollar and sharply higher equity markets.
11-17-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 11 TO 13 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 29 cents lower on Tuesday as more heavy liquidation was seen in the commodities markets. The news out of China to restrict speculation in the grain markets and measures to control inflation and prevent further run up in food costs weighed heavily on grain prices yesterday. There has been no confirmation to date of rumors that China was going to purchase up to 8 MMT of Argentine corn. The trade will be watching the weather in South America. There are forecasts for decent rains across dry areas of Argentina over the next couple of days, but if that doesn't materialize then the grain markets may react. The soybean market closed 67 cents lower on Tuesday in another day of massive liquidation. Traders are now concerned that January bean prices below 12.22 could encourage even more liquidation. The rising dollar due to the bearish news out of China has also plunged prices lower. Soybeans have now dropped $1.73 cents in the last three days. Funds have sold nearly 25,000 contracts of soybeans over the past few days. It has been estimated that 61% of Brazil's bean crop is now planted compared with 62% for last year. The five year average is 58%. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 1/2 cents, beans were 12 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed up 10 cents. Today look for the markets to open in line with the overnight settlements. Any further setback in prices could be looked on as a buying opportunity and may encourage prices to move higher once again.
11-16-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 9 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 26 TO 29 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 21 1/2 cents higher on Monday after being limit down on Friday. Rumors that China had purchased up to 8 MMT of corn from Argentina turned the market around to start off the new week. A new round of fund buying was evident in the marketplace on Monday. Traders looked on the break in prices on Friday as a good buying opportunity. Overnight, however, the markets have come under pressure again. The drop in the equities markets late on Monday has also spilled over into the night trade. Corn futures were down 9 cents this morning on continued uncertainty over Chinese monetary policies. China has announced that they will implement food price controls in order to slow down inflation. The soybean market closed 17 1/2 cents higher on Monday on renewed fund interest in commodities. The October crush figure released yesterday was 4 million bushels higher than expectations which continues to confirm strong demand for soy products. It has been rumored that China has purchased 2 to 3 cargoes of US soybeans overnight. China, however, said that it will unveil a plan to crack down on speculation in agricultural commodities to slow down the rapid run up in food prices there. Weather forecasts are turning a little more favorable for crop development in Argentina as forecasters have added more rain to dry areas of that country over the next couple of days. In the overnight trade corn closed down 9 cents, beans were 28 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 7 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning on concerns over China's new measures to crack down on inflation and slow down rising food costs.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 30 cents lower on Friday on heavy speculative liquidation due to rumors out of China that they were going to take measures to curb inflation by increasing interest rates. These measures to slow down China's economy along with the higher numbers released by Informa for increased acreage going into corn production next year was enough to drive corn prices limit lower. For the week, December corn closed down nearly 54 cents. Overnight corn opened nearly 8 cents higher on ideas that China was seeking to buy up to 8 million tons of corn supposedly of South American origin. It was rumored that China was also looking to secure other agricultural products as well. The soybean market also closed down the limit on Friday on the news out of China to slow down their economy. There were also rumors circulating that China might be selling soybeans from their reserves in the near future. This weighed even more heavily on the markets. South American weather forecasts keep reducing the amount of precipitation for Argentina for this week but Brazil could see some decent rains over the next 10 days. The traders will be watching these forecasts closely. In the overnight trade corn closed up 9 cents, beans were 8 cents higher and wheat closed 7 cents higher. Today look for prices to open higher in line with the overnight settlements. All commodities should spend the majority of the session on the plus side today. Crude, financial and equity markets are all trading higher this morning.
11-12-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 10 TO 12 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 34 TO 36 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 12 TO 14 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents lower yesterday mainly on ideas that farmers will plant more acreage to corn next year. Informa released their corn acreage estimates yesterday coming in at 93.1 million acres. That estimate came in 700,000 acres higher than their earlier projection and 6.6 million acres above last year's corn planted totals. This was enough of an increase to turn the corn market trading into negative numbers yesterday. The overnight trade in commodities was also sharply lower on ideas from the G20 meetings yesterday that suggest no quick resolution to the worlds financial and trade imbalance problems. The soybean market closed 20 cents higher on Thursday as talk of less acres planted to beans next year drove prices higher. Rumors of Chinese interest in US soybean oil also helped to run up bean prices. The trade is also concerned about the fact that Argentina remains fairly dry especially since this is a La Nina year which can bring drought-like conditions to South America. Informa guessed next year's bean planted acreage at 75.8 million which is 1.7 million acres less than what was planted last year. In the overnight trade corn closed down 11 cents, beans were 35 cents lower and wheat closed down 12 cents. Today look for prices to open lower in line with the overnight settlements. The negative reaction from the G20 meetings along with lower outside markets will likely keep downward pressure on grain prices today.
11-11-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 9 1/2 cents on Wednesday as weakness in the outside markets, a stronger dollar and fund liquidation all put downward pressure on corn prices. The sell off in corn continued on Wednesday after the release of the latest crop production number by USDA on Tuesday. The key reversal from Tuesday's high of 6.05 will make traders more reluctant to want to add to their already long positions. Corn exports fell a little short of expectations yesterday coming in at only 25 million bushels. The year to date export inspections fell 16 million bushels below last year's 314 total. The soybean market closed 9 1/2 cents lower yesterday as hedge funds decided to take some profits. Funds sold 2000 contracts of soybeans on the day. South American weather forecasts will be watched closely over the coming weeks. Rain amounts have been reduced for Argentina this weekend and also for next week. Precipitation has also been taken out of the forecast for parts of Brazil during that time frame. Most of Argentina remains relatively dry and is in need of some moisture. Soybean exports have fallen short of expectations over the past couple of weeks, however, total soybean exports exceed lat year's totals by 94 million bushels.Export numbers will not be released until Friday this week due to the Veteran's Day holiday today. In the overnight trade corn closed up 3 1/2 cents, beans were 5 cents higher and wheat closed up a penny. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight trade.
11-10-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 6 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 5 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 cents lower on Tuesday after opening sharply higher following the USDA report. USDA released their crop production numbers estimating US corn production at 12.540 billion bushels. Total production declined 124 million bushels from the October report dropping the national corn yield to 154.3 BPA. Ending stocks for this year declined by 75 million bushels from last month to 827 million bushels. Feed and residual usage decreased by 100 million bushels and exports were also reduced by 50 million. Some of this decrease was offset by an increase of 100 million bushels for ethanol usage. The crop report was not extremely bullish as the corn numbers came out pretty much in line with expectations. The soybean report surprised traders by coming out well under the traders estimates. Production dropped by 33 million bushels down to 3.375 billion bushels. The national yield dropped 1/2 BPA to 43.9. Ending stocks were reduced down to a mere 185 million bushels. The trade was looking for a production number of 3.426 billion bushels with a carryout of 240 million. This rallied the bean market to limit higher levels of 70 cents on the opening bell. Beans closed 55 cents higher on the day. In the overnight trade corn closed down 5 1/2 cents, beans were 6 cents lower and wheat closed down 5 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements. A slightly stronger dollar, fund selling and weak equity markets could all weigh on prices today.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 5 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents lower on Friday as traders are trying to position themselves ahead of Tuesday's USDA report. Yield reports out of Wisconsin and Minnesota have been very good as elevators are filling up as harvest winds down. The average guess for Tuesday's report comes in at 12.556 billion bushels on corn production with a national yield estimated at 154.6 BPA. Last month USDA estimated the corn crop at 12.664 with a yield of 155.8. Traders will start to focus their attention on the report which will likely govern price direction in the coming days. The soybean market closed 9 cents higher on Friday as beans continued their upward trend. This past week soybeans closed nearly 50 cents higher. Strong demand, a weak dollar and noncommercial buying all helped to push bean prices up over the past week. Continued concerns over South America's weather has also helped to drive prices higher. Argentina remains fairly dry and continues to miss some much needed rains. Brazil, on the other hand, has received some decent rainfall and weather conditions their remain favorable for crop development. On Tuesday, USDA will be estimating the soybean production and ending stocks. Traders are looking for the soybean crop to come in at 3.433 with a national yield of 44.7 BPA. Last month USDA estimated the crop at 3.408 with a yield of 44.4. Ending stocks are estimated to come out at 240 million bushels compared to last months estimate of 265. In the overnight trade corn closed down 1 1/2 cents, beans were 4 cents lower and wheat closed down 3 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning as the dollar is stronger and energy and equity markets are trading lower.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 5 cents on Monday after prices opened higher but were unable to sustain the early rally efforts. A steady rally in the US dollar caused weakness in the commodities. USDA will release their latest production numbers on November 9th. Two corn and soybean production numbers will become known this week. FC Stone released their latest production numbers yesterday and Informa will be out today. FC Stone lowered their national yield on corn to 154.1 BPA with total production coming in at 12.523 billion bushels. Last month Stone estimated the corn production at 12.891 with a yield of 159.2. USDA's October estimate came in at 12.664 with a yield of 155.8. The soybean market closed down a penny on Monday on weakness in the outside markets. Favorable weather for cop development in Brazil is also expected to continue over the next couple of weeks. This also weighed on soybean prices yesterday. Soybean exports came in a little lower than expected yesterday at 60.2 million bushels. FC Stone released their soybean numbers Monday afternoon with a production number of 3.449 with a yield of 44.9 BPA. Last month they estimated a soybean crop of 3.571 billion bushels with a yield of 45.8 BPA. USDA's October estimate came in at 3.408 with a yield of 44.4. In the overnight trade corn and beans closed up 4 cents and wheat closed up 6 cents. Look for the market to open this morning in line with the overnight settlements. Don't forget to vote today.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 10 TO 12 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 4 cents on Wednesday in a day of two sided trade. Traders are squaring up positions prior to the USDA supply demand report to be released on Friday morning. Traders are looking for USDA to reduce the crop production numbers and also reduce ending stocks figures. The average trader guess for the corn crop is now 13.199 billion bushels with a yield of 163.1 BPA. USDA's August estimate was 13.365 with a yield of 165. Last year's crop came in at 13.1 billion bushels with the final yield at 164.7. The soybean market closed 3 cents lower yesterday after trading higher during the session. Soybeans gained support on Wednesday from new sales to China and on rumors of more forthcoming business. Even though the market sold off on the close, funds were net buyers of 1700 contracts of soybeans yesterday. Some bullish technical charts showed signs of more upside potential. So far the early soybean yields have been coming in very good with a lot of yields in the 50's and 60's. Some yields have even been reported in the low 70's. The 6 to 10 day weather forecasts calls for normal to slightly below normal temps with normal rainfall. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 cents, beans were 11 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed up a penny. Today look for the markets to open lower this morning and struggle to trade higher during the session.
9-08-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY
BEANS - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up 2 cents yesterday after opening lower. Prices opened weaker in light of the lower overnight session due to profit taking from Friday's big rally. Lower outside markets and some reports of better corn yields also added downside pressure early in the session. Yesterday afternoon's crop condition report showed a 1% drop from the previous week, coming in at 69% good to excellent. On Friday morning, USDA will release their supply demand report for September. The trade is expecting a carryout of 1.412 billion bushels for this year and a carryout for next year at 1.125. The soybean market closed up 17 cents yesterday on a late in the session rally. The market shook off the early weakness after strong export sales of soybeans and oil helped to rally the market. Yesterday afternoon's crop condition scores came in unchanged at 64% good to excellent. Some soybean harvest is expected to get underway across the central belt this week. The very early soybean yields are coming in better than expected, however, later planted beans are expected to show a decrease as the dry weather in August is expected to lower their yields some. In the overnight trade corn closed down a penny, beans were unchanged and wheat closed a penny lower. Today look for prices to open lower on the weakness from the overnight trade.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 9 TO 12 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents lower on Monday after trading higher earlier in the session. The December futures reached 4.38 3/4 and ran into heavy resistance once again. Demand for corn at this level seems to fall off and prices drop. Harvesting is underway in the central and southern corn belt regions. Mississippi and Arkansas are approaching 50% done with their corn harvest. Tennessee is harvesting corn and indications are that yields are running up to 30% below expectations.USDA released their crop condition scores yesterday improving the corn crop to 70% good to excellent which was up 1 % from last week. US weather forecasts remain favorable for much of the Midwest, however, drying will continue to occur in the Southern Midwest where soils are already drying out. The soybean market closed 1 1/2 cents higher on Monday as all indications continue to point to a record soybean crop. USDA estimated the US soybean crop at 64% good to excellent which was a 2 % drop from the previous week. The trade was looking for a rating near 68% G-E. Some traders fear that prices at these levels will start to lower demand. The overnight markets spent most of the session trading lower. Weaker equity markets and lower crude oil prices all weighed negatively on the markets. In the overnight trade corn closed down 8 cents, beans were 7 cents lower and wheat closed down 11 1/2 cents. Today look for the markets to open lower in line with the overnight settlements.
8-23-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 13 TO 15 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents higher on Friday in another day of moderate fund buying. Pro Farmer estimated corn production Friday afternoon at 13.29 billion bushels with a yield of 164.1 bushels per acre. Iowa's corn yield was pegged to be 6% lower than last year coming in at an expected 169 BPA . Excessive rains during June caused a lot of stress on the corn crop, limiting yield potential. The tour put the average corn yield for Minnesota at 185 BPA nearly unchanged from last year. Illinois corn yields also came in at on par with last year's yields. Hot and dry temperatures in August limited the upside potential of the corn yields in Illinois. Some harvest is actually going on as far north as south central Illinois. The soybean market closed 8 cents lower on Friday on talk that China may release some of their vegetable oil reserves in an effort to cap prices there. Weather forecasts also showed some moisture over the weekend in Missouri and Illinois. Weather in the Delta and southern states is expected to be mostly favorable during the next couple of weeks. The Pro Farmer tour results released Friday night put the US soybean crop at 3.50 billion bushels with the yield pegged at 44.9 BPA. USDA's August estimate was projected at 3.433 billion bushels with a yield of 44.0. Every state except Ohio showed higher pod counts than last year. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were 5 cents higher and wheat closed 14 cents higher. Today look for the markets to open in line with the overnight settlements.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 1/2 cents higher on Friday on continued buying by the funds. There was no new fundamental developments to justify the upswing in the markets on Friday. Some in the trade, however, feel that the 165 bpa yields projected by the USDA on Thursday might be a little overstated. The strong demand for grain products has given the market some support over the last couple of weeks. Pro Farmer will be doing their Midwest crop tour this week. The crop condition report will be released this afternoon with the trade expecting a 1 to 2% drop in corn condition. Corn harvest will be getting underway in the southern corn belt in the next week or two. The soybean market closed 15 1/2 cents higher on Friday on moderate fund buying. The funds bought 4000 contracts of beans on Friday and are now long approximately 130,000 contracts of soybeans. Early yield reports are beginning to come in from the southern states. Both Mississippi and Louisiana have bean yields coming in at or above lat year's levels. Soybean condition reports will be released after the market closes today with estimates of 1 to 2 % lower than last week. The latest forecasts are calling for cooler temperatures this week followed by a return to warmer temperatures the following week. A couple of episodes of rain are likely this week. In the overnight trade corn closed a penny higher, beans were down 4 cents and wheat closed up 1/2 cent. Look for a market opening in line with the overnight trade.
8-11-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY
BEANS - STEADY
WHEAT - 2 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 cents lower on Tuesday as traders began to position themselves ahead of Thursday's USDA Supply Demand report. Thursday's report could show record corn production but the trade is expecting to see a reduction in corn carryover numbers for both this year and next year. The average guess for for Thursday's report has corn production at a record 13.28 billion bushels with a yield of 164.1 bushels per acre. Some downward pressure on commodities yesterday was also due to a stronger US dollar and a lower stock market. In regards to the weather, mostly hot and dry conditions continue in the southern and central regions of the growing area. This is putting some stress on the crops in this region. Cooler weather is supposed to enter the picture starting this weekend. The soybean market closed 13 cents lower on Tuesday as liquidation ahead of Thursday's report came into play. Pre-report estimates came in showing record bean production of 3.366 billion bushels with an average yield of 43.2 bushels per acre. Ending stocks are expected to show a decline in both 2009-10 and 2010-11. A stronger dollar and weakness in crude oil also aided in the downward pressure on soybean prices yesterday. Prior to the open, USDA announced that 400,000 tons of US beans were sold to China, 100,000 tons were sold to Egypt and 180,000 tons were sold to unknown destinations. That, however, had little impact on price direction. In the overnight trade, corn and beans closed unchanged and wheat closed up 3 cents. This morning look for the markets to open in line with the overnight settlements.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 11 TO 13 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down a penny yesterday after starting off the session on a higher note. Corn prices gathered support early in the session from higher wheat prices. There was talk yesterday that Russia was considering a plan to restrict their wheat exports. Some in the trade believe that they will only be able to export 11 million tons of wheat next season due to a severe drought in their country. Weather forecasts supporting favorable crop prospects in the US for this growing season, however, weighed on corn prices later in the session. No extreme heat is anticipated through the middle of August for the Midwest. Adequate moisture for the crops is also predicted during that time frame. The soybean market closed unchanged yesterday after gaining support early in the session form rumors of more Chinese imports of soybeans from the US. The latest forecasts continue to look good for crop development into early August. Soybean condition reports continue to hold steady to better going into August with the crop maturity running slightly ahead of normal. Reports out of China are saying that their August soybean imports will be down to 3.88 million tons. In July China imported 5.59 MMT and during the month of June China imported a record 6.2 MMT. In the overnight trade corn closed 5 cents higher, beans were up 7 cents and wheat closed 13 cents higher. Most of the strength in the overnight markets was due to concerns over wheat conditions in Russia and the European countries. Long term bullishness in the grains might be hard to sustain given the latest weather forecasts.
7-27-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents lower on Monday as some much needed rainfall soaked some of the drier areas across the Midwest over the weekend. The 6 to 10 day forecast calls for conditions favorable for crop development. No extremely hot temperatures are expected during this period. Some precipitation is likely to occur as cool fronts move across the Midwest from time to time. Corn export numbers came out yesterday better than expected at 42.4 million bushels. Chinese imports of corn this year will likely exceed 1.7 million tonnes. The last time China imported this much corn from the US was back in 1995. A poor start to this year's corn crop in China and a bad harvest last year has resulted in increased demand for US crops. The soybean market closed 19 cents lower on Monday as good rains fell across the Midwest and across the dry Delta areas. This will really help pod set and filling in the areas where good rainfall was reported. On Monday afternoon's crop condition report, 67% of the bean crop was reported to be in the good to excellent category which was unchanged from last week. On August 12th, USDA will estimate new crop yields and production and create a new supply demand projection. In the overnight trade corn closed up 5 cents, beans were 6 cents higher and wheat closed 9 cents higher. This morning look for the markets to open higher in line with the overnight settlements. Given the current weather forecasts any long term rallies will be hard to sustain.
7-21-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 1/2 cents lower on further liquidation yesterday in the corn market. Favorable weather forecasts through July will get the corn crop through the critical pollination phase without many problems. The central and southern Illinois areas received from 1 to 2 inches of rain over the past couple of days. Rains are forecast to spread into northern areas of the state on Thursday and Friday. Harvest will be earlier this year with some crops in Illinois beginning to be combined in August. Southern Texas has already begun to harvest some corn with early yields a little better than expected. The soybean market closed up 3 cents on Tuesday on continued strong export demand. USDA announced the sale of 110,000 tons of US beans to China. Buying interest also resumed yesterday by the funds as an ever tight old crop supply situation continues to be worrisome to the trade. The recent heat and dryness in the Delta region has some concerned about yield reductions for this year's crops in that area. Traders shrugged off the improvement in the soybean crop conditions report until further confirmation of improvement in the weather is verified. In the overnight trade corn closed up 4 cents, beans were 4 cents higher and wheat closed 6 cents higher. Look for the grain markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
7-20-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 5 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 13 cents lower on Monday as some of the weather premium was taken out of the grain markets. The latest weather forecast shows no high pressure ridge setting up across the corn belt in the near future and some rainfall is expected over the next 5 days. The funds decided to liquidate some of their long positions due to the change in the forecasts. The corn crop condition report released yesterday afternoon showed a drop of 1% coming in at 72% good to excellent. Corn export inspections came in pretty much in line with expectations at 38.9 million bushels which was a little disappointing since 55 million bushels is needed to stay on pace with USDA's export projections for this year. The soybean market closed 11 1/2 cents lower on Monday as weather forecasts turned more favorable for crop development in the Midwest. Soybean exports were a little disappointing last week coming in at only 6.8 million bushels. The trade needs a weekly soybean export of 12 million bushels to stay on pace with USDA's projected totals. The soybean crop conditions improved by 2% to 67% good to excellent on yesterday's report. Weakness from the corn market and improving forecasts weighed on bean values all day. The rains forecast across the Midwest over the next several days will be very good for pod fill and will help to improve soybean yields this year. In the overnight trade corn closed down 6 cents, beans were 4 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 6 cents. Look for the markets to see more liquidation this morning as more weather premium may be extracted from prices.
7-19-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
BEANS : 8 TO 11 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT : 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents higher on Friday after trading in a choppy session. A change in the weather forecasts calling for more moderate temperatures with some rainfall across the Midwest put a little pressure on prices. Some fund buying did surface near the close to give the corn market a slightly higher finish. This afternoon USDA will release their crop rating estimates. Corn ratings are expected to come in unchanged to possibly 1% lower. Last week the crop rating came in at 73% good to excellent which surprised the trade by being 2% higher than the previous week. USDA will also release their export inspections this morning. The trade is looking for corn export numbers to fall between 35 and 40 million bushels. The soybean market finished 3 cents lower on Friday in a day of two sided trade. Weather forecasts adding more rain to the equation caused the slightly lower bias on Friday. The US does remain competitive, however, on old crop soybeans. Their continues top be rumors of additional Chinese interest for US beans. No new confirmations have been released yet. The trade is looking for a decline in the soybean crop condition this afternoon of 1 to 2%. Tight old crop supplies and weather uncertainties are likely to support soybean prices especially at any lower levels. In the overnight trade corn closed 7 cents lower, beans were down 8 cents and wheat closed 4 cents higher. Wheat prices were supported overnight by continued warm and dry conditions in Russia. Look for the corn and bean markets to open lower this morning with wheat likely to open a little higher.
7-14-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents lower on Tuesday after trading as much as 3 cents higher during the session. Strength from outside markets and a weaker dollar led to some buying interest by the funds early in the session. The increase of 2% in the corn crop condition rating, however, limited any real rally attempts. The corn rating is now 2 points better than last year at 73% good to excellent and is the highest rating on this date since the bumper crop of 2004. Favorable forecasts for the next two weeks also weighed on values as the trading session wore on. Nearly 38% of the corn crop is now reported to be in the pollination phase and the weather has not produced any damaging temperatures to hurt the crop. The soybean market closed 3 cents lower yesterday after trading higher early in the session. Before the market opened yesterday, talk circulated in the trade that China might have purchased 1 or 2 cargoes of US soybeans. That coupled with the lower crop rating and continued weather concerns in the southern states got the market off to an early rally. When no confirmation came on the expected sales to China, the funds began to lose interest and the market sold off. The soybean market, however, still remains in a seasonal uptrend and prices could continue to work a little higher in the coming days. In the overnight trade corn closed up 1 1/2 cents, beans were 3 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed up 1/2 cent. This morning look for the markets to open a little higher with trade expected on both sides of the close today. We could see a choppy session today as crude oil prices are lower and the dollar is a little weaker this morning.
7-13-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents lower on Monday as funds sold 6000 corn contracts on the day. A slightly bearish USDA report on Friday has caused some liquidation in the trade. A stronger dollar and weaker outside markets also contributed to the sell off. The crop condition report released yesterday afternoon showed an improvement of 2% in the corn crop ratings. The nations corn crop is now rated 73% good to excellent. The trade was looking for a small drop in the ratings. Recent weather models continue to show a favorable pattern for crop development. Warm temperatures are expected to continue across the Midwest with several opportunities for showers over the next two weeks. The soybean market closed 4 1/2 cents higher yesterday as tight old crop supplies helped to support the bean prices. Soybean export inspections came in yesterday in line with expectations at 6.515 million bushels. Soybean crop conditions came in at 65% good to excellent which was 1% lower than last week. Hot and dry weather conditions in the southern states should continue to support bean prices. Higher energy prices and stronger equity markets this morning should help to provide some strength. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 1/2 cents, beans were 4 cents higher and wheat prices closed down 2 cents. Look for the corn and wheat markets to come under pressure this morning with beans opening higher.
7-5-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 10 TO 12 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 1 1/2 cents lower on Friday in a day of choppy trade. Some profit taking came into the market as traders approached the 3 day holiday weekend. Informa released their yield estimates for corn and soybeans on Friday. They estimated corn yields to come in at 163.5 BPA. USDA will release their crop condition report this afternoon. The trade is expecting to see a decline again this week of 1 to 2% in the corn ratings. Russia has lowered their grain production estimate by nearly 5 million metric tons. The soybean market closed 7 1/2 cents higher on Friday on short covering ahead of the July 4th holiday weekend. There was talk in the trade that China may have purchased some new crop beans helping to support the market. Informa estimated the soybean yield at 43.4 BPA. Last year's soybean crop came in at 44 BPA. This afternoon USDA will report soybean conditions. The trade is looking for a drop of 1 to 2% mainly due to the hot dry weather in the Delta. Illinois still has over 500,000 acres of soybeans yet to be planted. Many of them, however, should get planted this week with better weather conditions expected. In the overnight trade corn closed up 6 cents, beans were 4 cents higher and wheat closed up 11 cents. Overnight prices were higher on stronger equity markets. Look for the markets to open higher this morning, however, they are bumping up against some resistance levels.
7-2-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 10 1/2 cents higher on Thursday in another day of fund buying following the bullish USDA report released on Wednesday morning. The trade is still concerned about dry conditions in the Delta. Also this past week, analysts are lowering their forecasts for Russia's crop this year by 4 to 5 million tons due to drought. Informa will be releasing their latest crop production estimates this morning. Their was talk in the trade yesterday that Malaysia may be interested in buying some US corn in the next couple of days. The soybean market closed 5 cents stronger on Thursday as more soy products have been sold to China. Prior to the open of the markets yesterday, USDA announced the sale of 40,000 tons of soybean oil to China for new crop delivery. Soybean exports came in at 26.3 million bushels with 56% of the sales made to China this past week. The latest weather models show conditions favorable for crop development. The remnants of Hurricane Alex will clash with a cool front as it moves across the Midwest. Widespread rain will be likely from Kansas and Missouri spreading into southern Illinois and Kentucky early next week. This will be followed by a drier weather pattern. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 cents, beans were unchanged and wheat closed a penny lower. Today look for the markets to trade on both sides of the close in a rather tight trading range. Some profit taking will likely occur today prior to the close due to the upcoming 3 day weekend.
7-1-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 29 cents higher on Wednesday after a very bullish acreage and stocks report. USDA lowered corn plantings down to 87.9 million acres from their March 31st estimates of 88.8. The trade was actually looking for the corn acreage number to come out around 89.2 million acres. With a yield this year of 164 bushels per acre, the corn crop for 2010 could come in around 13.3 billion bushels. June 1st stocks also came in much lower than expected at 4.310 billion bushels. The trade was looking for a number around 4.6. This year's carryout could now be reduced to 1.35 billion bushels which is much tighter than previously thought. Weather suddenly becomes a much more important factor now for this year's crop. The soybean market closed only a penny higher as USDA raised soybean acreage to 78.9 compared to USDA's March 31st estimate of 78.1. The June 1st soybean stocks estimate came in below expectations at 571 million bushels. The trade was looking for a number close to 595. This year's carryout of soybeans could come in near 175 million bushels which is a reduction from previous estimates. In the overnight trade corn closed up 2 cents, beans were 1 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed up 1 1/2 cents. Today look for the markets to open higher and then trade on both sides of the close. This morning the dollar is trading lower nearly .5% with the Euro. If the Euro continues to be supported then the Dollar will continue to weaken which should support commodity prices.
6-30-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 10 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 cents lower on Tuesday as concerns over the economic recovery dropped the stock market over 200 points and increased fund selling in the commodities markets. Also improving weather forecasts in the US took some of the weather premium out of the markets yesterday. Moderating temperatures with no signs of a dominating high pressure ridge will be favorable for crop development. The acreage report released this morning for corn came out below analysts estimates at 87.87 million acres. The average guess was 89.23and USDA's March estimate was 88.8. Corn stocks for June 1 st came out at 4.31 billion bushels compared to estimates of 4.598. Both reports will be friendly to corn this morning. The soybean market closed 8 cents lower on Tuesday on continued liquidation in the commodities. Prior to the open yesterday USDA announced the sales of 230,000 tons of soybeans to China. This gave the markets a little boost on the opening, however, soybeans were not able to sustain the gains into the close of the markets. The acreage report on soybeans released this morning came out at 78.87 million acres which was higher than the average guess of 78.18 million acres and above USDA's March estimate of 78.1 million acres. Soybean June 1st stocks numbers came out lower than expected at 571 million bushels compared with guesses at 594. In the overnight trade corn closed 6 cents higher, beans were up 4 1/2 cents and wheat closed 4 1/2 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning based on the bullish USDA reports.
6-28-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents lower on Friday as the market continued in a liquidation mode. Funds sold nearly 6000 contracts on the day. Traders are looking for a larger acreage number for corn on the June 30th acreage and stocks report. A cooler and drier weather forecast for this week will help crop conditions. The demand side on corn has been improving with China continuing to buy US corn to help cool down their domestic prices. The soybean market closed 1 1/2 cents higher on Friday as many in the trade are expecting to see a decrease in the crop condition report to be released this afternoon. This afternoon's report is also expected to show that between 2 to 4% of the soybean crop will remain to be planted yet. Traders will be positioning themselves ahead of Wednesday's acreage and stocks report. The trade is looking for 78.3 million acres to go into soybeans on this report. Last month's report came in at 78.1 million acres. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 cents, beans were a penny higher and wheat closed down 3 cents. Today look for the markets to open in line with the overnight trade. Corn prices are likely to drift lower while bean prices will see support at lower levels.
6-25-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT- STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents lower on Thursday as liquidation continued in the corn market. Weather forecasts calling for a return to drier and cooler conditions next week continued to weigh negatively on corn prices. Strong corn exports of 44.2 million bushels helped to support the market going into the opening, but buying interest quickly eroded. Traders will focus their attention now on the stocks and acreage report to be released on June 30th. Traders will soon be positioning themselves in anticipation of that report. The soybean market closed down 2 1/2 cents on Thursday in a day of two sided trade. Export sales came out better than expected at 11.3 million bushels and gave the market a boost on the opening. Japan and China were the main buyers. The market rally was overshadowed by forecasts calling for cooler and wetter conditions for the Delta area. This region has been plagued with hot and dry conditions for several weeks. Rainfall right now in this area could add greatly to yield potential there. In the overnight trade corn closed nearly unchanged, beans were up 2 cents and wheat closed down a penny. Today look for the markets to open in line with the overnight settlements. Corn is expected to trade on both sides of the close with beans likely to be higher during much of the session.
6-24-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 cents lower on Wednesday on continued fund selling. Although many areas across the Midwest have had too much rainfall over the past month, traders still believe that rain makes grain. Early planting this spring and warm temperatures have really pushed the corn crop along. Pollination will run a couple of weeks ahead of normal this year which should allow it to occur before the heat of the summer. This should be conducive to good yield potential. The soybean market closed 7 1/2 cents lower yesterday on lower outside markets and concerns that the economy may not be recovering as fast as earlier thought. The home sales market dropped nearly 33% in May, giving the optimism over the economy a major setback. The soybean crush numbers released this morning came out about as expected at 133.8 million bushels. Both soybean meal and oil stocks were much higher than expectations. This may be a result of the strong competition out of South America. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were 4 cents higher and wheat closed up 2 cents. Today look for the markets to open higher and then take direction from the influence of the outside markets. Currently energy and equity markets are trading a little lower this morning.
6-23-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 1/2 cents lower on Tuesday as weaker outside markets, a stronger dollar and calls for generally better weather forecasts put downward pressure on prices. Some areas in the Midwest have received some heavy rains and flooding over the past couple of weeks but this is being overshadowed by good growing conditions in many areas with drier conditions forecast for next week. Many in the trade are looking for more corn purchases to be made by China in the coming weeks. This would continue to put a positive outlook on corn prices. The soybean market closed 2 cents higher yesterday as weather worries continue to add some premium to soybean prices and talk that China may continue to buy some US beans and soybean oil helped to support prices. The trade also believes that many acres in Canada will not get planted to Canola this year because of the wet weather this spring. The US still has 7% of the soybean crop yet to be planted and the Delta area is dealing with hot and dry conditions which could have a big impact on on soybean production this year. In the overnight trade corn closed down a penny, beans were down 3 cents and wheat closed up 4 cents. Look for the markets to start off a little lower this morning with the markets likely to find some support at these lower levels.
6-22-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
WHEAT - 3 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 cents lower on Monday after being as much as 6 cents higher early in the session. The early run up in prices was caused by a weaker dollar and a hot dry forecast for the South. When the dollar started to recover, traders decided to take profits and that fueled the sell off. Corn export sales came out much lower than expected also adding to the quick drop in corn prices yesterday. Monday afternoon's weekly condition report showed the corn crop to be rated 75% good to excellent which is a 2% drop from last week. However, last year the crop was only rated 70% good to excellent. The soybean market closed 2 cents higher yesterday on higher outside markets and on talk of Chinese purchases of soybeans. Rumors circulated last week that China may buy up to 12 cargoes of beans mostly out of South America and possibly some out of the US. Soybean planting progress only gained 2% last week with the crop now still only 92% planted. Wet weather continues to delay planting with over 5 million acres yet unplanted. The soybean crop rating dropped to 69% good to excellent from last week's 73%. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 cents, beans were up 1/2 cent and wheat closed down 3 cents. Today look for the markets to start off lower and then trade on both sides of the close. Energy and equities markets are both a little lower this morning.
6-18-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed a penny higher on Thursday. Export sales came out strong at 1.09 MMT yesterday on old crop with China taking 4.7 million bushels. The trade is looking for additional sales to China to be made in the coming weeks. China has purchased 835,000 tons of US corn so far this year. EPA has once again delayed the decision on allowing a 15% blend to be used in reformulated gasoline. EPA says that they will not make the final decision until fall when the DOE is to complete their testing on newer vehicles. Informa is expected to release their latest acreage numbers today. The trade is looking for a modest increase in corn acres over last months estimate. The soybean market closed 6 cents lower yesterday on disappointing export sales as Japan reported a cancellation of 270,000 metric tons. Rumors in the trade however continue to circulate that China is looking for more soybeans either out of South America or the United States. No confirmation has yet been made. Informa will estimate soybean acreage today around mid morning. Some in the trade are looking for a slight drop in acreage from the May estimate. The Canadian Canola crop is still vulnerable to losses this year due to the recent heavy rains there. Wheat and oat plantings have also been seriously delayed. In the overnight trade corn closed unchanged, beans were up 3 cents and wheat closed down 1 1/2 cents. Look for the market today to have a difficult time sustaining any rally attempts ahead of the weekend.
6-16-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN -STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents higher on Monday on a weaker dollar and stronger outside markets. Continued strong demand for corn has also upheld prices. Confirmation of corn sales to the Chinese for old crop delivery continues to be a welcome surprise to the trade this year. Current weather forecasts call for a warmer and drier trend across the Midwest over the next 6 to 10 days. This will be great for crop development. Corn crop ratings continue to improve as noted on yesterday's report. The corn crop is rated 77% good to excellent which is 1% higher than last week. The soybean market closed 5 cents higher yesterday mainly on ideas that Canada may have several million acres of Canola that may not get planted this year. Some areas across the Midwest have received too much rain further delaying soybean planting progress in some areas. Soybean crop condition ratings slipped back 2% from their 75% good to excellent rating down to 73 last week. Too wet of conditions are showing some yellowing of beans as a result of fertilizer loss. In the overnight trade corn closed down a penny, beans were 1 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed down 1/2 cent. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning with trade expected on both sides of the close.
6-14-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 cents higher on Friday on continued follow through form USDA's bullish report released on Thursday and on reports that China had bought an additional 3 cargoes of US corn for delivery between July to October. Many in the trade feel that China will need to continue to import more corn because fewer corn acres were planted there this year and the crop was put in under adverse conditions. The trade will monitor weather conditions in China closely this year for any further deterioration in crop yields. Weather conditions in the US remain favorable for crop growth and development and will limit any real rally attempts. The soybean market closed 11 cents higher on Friday as funds became net buyers on the day. It was reported that China purchased some soybean oil for this crop year which gave the soybean market a boost. USDA will be out with their crop ratings this afternoon. The trade is expecting the soybean rating to show that 75% of the crop is in good to excellent condition.They are looking for 90% of the nations soybean crop to now be planted. In the overnight trade corn closed unchanged, beans were up 4 cents and wheat closed 6 cents higher. This morning look for the markets to open in line with the overnight settlements.
6-11-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 cents higher on Thursday after yesterday's bullish USDA supply-demand report. USDA dropped 09-10 corn ending stocks by 135 million bushels to 1.603 billion bushels and dropped next year's carryout by 245 million bushels down to 1.573. Most of this was a result of an increase in corn usage for ethanol. On this report USDA left both yield and production estimates for this year's corn crop unchanged. Favorable weather is forecast over the next two weeks which will promote very good conditions or crop development. This has been a limiting factor in any rally attempts on the part of the grain markets. The soybean market closed 8 1/2 cents lower yesterday on a neutral USDA report for beans.USDA lowered old crop carryout by 5 million bushels from the previous month down to 185 million bushels on an increase in soybean crush. New crop carryout for 2010-11 was also lowered by a like amount. USDA left exports, production and yield unchanged for the 2010 crop. The big news yesterday was talk that China was cancelling 5 to 8 cargoes of old crop shipments out of South America due to backups at Chinese ports. This gave the soybean market a negative tone yesterday. In the overnight trade corn closed up 1 1/2 cents, beans were nearly unchanged and wheat closed up a penny. Look for the markets to open in line with the overnight settlements and trade on both sides of the close today.
5-26-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 5 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents lower on Tuesday on downward pressure from the outside markets and a stronger dollar. Crude oil was down $2.50 per barrel at one time yesterday. Prospects look very good right now for this year's corn crop with the early planting and nearly ideal growing conditions. The trade is keeping an eye on tensions between North and South Korea. Financial problems in the European Union are also keeping the dollar stronger and are making the outside markets weaker which are both working against commodity prices. Monday nights planting progress report showed an increase of 15% in planting progress over a week ago. Beans are getting planted at a pace exceeding last year in which record yields were achieved. Weather across the Midwest continues favorable for crop development and planting will continue in many areas. The latest 6 to 10 day forecasts call for normal temperatures and normal to above normal rainfall. Cash soybean basis remains firm on slow farmer selling. In the overnight trade corn closed up 5 cents, beans were 7 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed up 6 cents. Prices were higher overnight on strong crude oil markets, a weaker dollar and a better outlook for equity markets. Look for commodities to open higher this morning.
5-25-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 10 TO 13 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents higher on Monday as the corn trade carried over from Friday's strong close. The recent Chinese purchase of US corn has held the market firm despite the overall bearishness of large new crop prospects, weaker outside markets and a stronger dollar. The planting progress reports released yesterday afternoon showed that 93% of the nations corn crop is now planted with a 71% rating of good to excellent. Both of these numbers bode well for high yield potential for this years crop. Many areas could see knee high corn by Memorial Day. The soybean market closed nearly unchanged yesterday after being in higher territory much of the day. Soybean export inspections came in at 3.9 million bushels which was below trade expectations. The soybean planting progress report came in a little lower than expected at 54% planted nationwide. The trade was looking for a number near 58%. The stronger dollar and weaker outside markets continue to limit the upside potential of commodity prices. In the overnight trade corn closed down 5 1/2 cents, beans were 10 cents lower and wheat closed down 5 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning and trade lower much of the day unless the dollar weakens and outside markets turn higher.
5-24-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY
BEANS - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents higher on Friday as USDA announced another sale of corn to China. On Friday it was reported that China purchased 118,000 tons of corn from the US bringing the total to nearly 500,000 tons. China is trying to bring down domestic prices by importing cheaper US corn. The trade continues to focus on the weather to get ideas for the US corn and bean production for this year. Much above normal temperatures this week has the trade wondering if these conditions will persist into the summer months. Late summer heat and dryness are typical of a La Nina weather pattern. The soybean market closed 3 cents lower on Friday as soybean prices took a different path than corn. There was some talk in the trade that China was looking to delay or even cancel some soybean imports due to heavy import schedules. This afternoon's planting progress report is expected to show that over 50% of the nations soybean crop is now planted. Last week's report showed 38% was planted. In the overnight trade corn closed nearly unchanged, beans were up 5 cents and wheat closed 3 cents lower. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning with possible downward pressure from lower outside markets. The dollar was much stronger this morning due to continued financial problems in the European Union.
5-20-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - STEADY
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 1/2 cent on Wednesday after being much lower earlier in the trading session. A stronger dollar and lower cude oil prices helped to set the lower tone for the markets. China was rumored to have purchased 2 more cargoes of corn and some feed companies in China are trying to get more corn import quotas to keep local prices under control. Latest long range weather forecasts continue to call for warmer and drier conditions across the Midwest which will be very good for early crop development. The soybean market closed a penny lower on Wednesday on a lack of any new bullish news. Some light commercial buying did help to limit the downward trend. The weather forecasts continue to look better, however, some areas are expected to get rain today and into Friday. Heavier amounts will be across Iowa and Missouri and into Southern Illinois over the next couple of days. This will delay planting there until late next week when conditions are expected to improve. In the overnight trade corn closed down a penny, beans were nearly unchanged and wheat closed down 2 cents. This morning look for the markets to trade on both sides of the close. Any rally attempts will be difficult to sustain unless outside markets start to show some strength during the session. Crude oil is trading 1 to 2 dollars per barrel lower this morning.
5-19-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 2 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents higher on Tuesday on short covering in the marketplace. Many traders believe that China will be back in the market to purchase more corn in the near future. A weaker dollar and stronger outside markets also helped to support prices yesterday. The forecast for the Midwest still calls for warmer temperatures with limited rainfall in the coming days. This will be good for crop development. The soybean market closed 1 1/2 cents lower on Tuesday after a stronger start earlier in the session. The market opened a little higher on lower than expected planting reports released on Monday afternoon. Soybean plantings only came in at 38% nationwide while the trade was expecting a number between 40 to 45% planted. Between that and a weaker dollar, the market was given some early momentum. Prices turned lower when the dollar strengthened later on in the trading session causing beans to close lower. The markets are struggling to hold on to any rally attempts especially with an improving weather forecast which will allow planting progress to continue later this week. In the overnight trade corn closed unchanged, beans were down a penny and wheat closed nearly unchanged. Look for the markets to open steady this morning but struggle on any rally attempts.
5-18-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents lower on Monday as weak outside markets gave grain prices no incentive to move higher. A stonger dollar and improving weather forecasts that show a warmer pattern ahead also weighed on prices. Corn export inspections came in better than expected at 38.5 million bushels. Yesterday afternoon's planting report showed that 87% of the nations corn crop is now planted with 55% emerged. Crop conditions came in at 67% good to excellent. Weather forecasts are calling for improved conditions over the next 10 days with warming temperatures which will be good for crop development. The soybean market closed 12 1/2 cents lower on Monday as any bullish news was hard to come by . Crude oil prices dropped below 70 dollars per barrel yesterday, the lowest in recent months. The soybean planting progress report came in at 38% planted nationwide compared to the 5 year average of 35%. Improving weather forecasts should allow for planting progress to resume in the near future. Soybean export inspections came in a little better than expected yesterday at 8.47 million bushels. In the overnight trade corn closed up 4 cents, beans were up 8 cents and wheat closed 4 1/2 cents higher. Look for grain prices to move higher this morning on stronger outside markets , a weaker dollar and generally oversold conditions.
5-17-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 10 cents lower on Friday on a stronger dollar, lower outside markets and continued financial concerns in Europe. Prior to the opening on Friday, USDA announced a sale of 100,000 tons of corn to Japan. This, however, was not enough to give the market any upward momentum. There was some talk on Friday that China may have purchased another cargo or two of US corn. Confirmation of this will likely not be revealed until the export numbers are released on Thursday. Overnight the Euro dropped to levels not seen since 2006 and the dollar was sharply higher. The soybean market closed 11 cents lower on Friday on the lack of any new positive development in the grain markets. The latest crush figures were considered bearish and came in nearly 18 million bushels below the March totals. Soybean oil stocks were also higher than they were last month. The US, however, still remains the cheapest source for soybeans despite the higher US dollar levels. US soyoil is also competitve with South America. Today's planting progress report is expected to come in at somewhere between 40 to 45 % planted on soybeans. Weather is expected to improve this week with the latest 6 to 10 day forecast calling for above normal temperatures and normal precipitation. In the overnight trade corn closed down a penny, beans were 6 cents lower and wheat closed up 1/2 cent. Look for the grain markets to open steady to lower this morning. Favorable weather forecasts and lower outside markets will make it difficult for the prices to rally today.
5-14-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 9 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 cents lower on Thursday as USDA announced more corn sales to China with total purchases nearing 700,000 tons. The trade has shrugged this off as they feel that corn stocks this year are more than adequate to accomodate these sales. There is also concerns this morning that the attempted European Union bailout program may fail. This is causing more strength in the US dollar and lower crude oil prices this morning. This may give the markets a weaker tone today. The soybean market closed down a penny yesterday on the lack of any new bullish news. Bean export sales came in yesterday at 17.5 million bushels with Mexico being the largest buyer. The latest weather models show another chance for rain early next week for the Midwest, followed by warmer and drier conditions. A high pressure ridge is expected to set up after that keeping moisture out of the Midwest until late May. This should allow for soybean planting to get wrapped up. In the overnight trade corn closed down 4 cents, beans were 9 cents lower and wheat closed down 3 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning and struggle on any rally attempts due to lower outside markets and a stronger dollar.
5-13-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up a penny after trading much higher early in the session. News that another 6 cargoes of corn were sold to China was enough to give the market a sharp boost in prices. There is talk that another 15 cargoes of US corn is likely to be purchased by China. The corn is being purchased by the state for use by the feed mills. This is an attempt by China to keep their domestic prices for corn from getting to high. This is leading to ideas in the trade that China's corn crop last year may have been well below USDA's projections. Weather conditions have now turned wet across much of the Midwest with some areas getting more rain than needed. The soybean market closed down 1/2 cent on Wednesday after a sharp runnup in prices led by corn sales to China. Profit taking quickly entered the marketplace and eroded the early price gains. On the supply-demand report issued yesterday, USDA is estimating a bean crop for this year at over 3.3 billion bushels. If that comes to fruition, it would be the second largest bean crop on record. They projected a carryout for this year of 190 million bushels and 365 for next year. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were down a penny and wheat closed down 2 cents. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning with downward pressure coming from the lower outside markets and a stronger dollar.
5-12-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 7 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 1/2 cents higher on Tuesday after USDA lowered the US corn carryout by 161 million bushels for this year. USDA lowered the yields in both North and South Dakota on last year's crop reducing total production by 21 million bushels. USDA increased corn use for ethanol by 100 million bushels for the coming year. Corn exports were increased by 50 million bushels but feed usage for 09-10 was reduced. In news overnight, China bought 6 cargoes of US corn. This is in addition to the 2 cargoes bought previously. Additional corn sales to China are expected in the next couple of weeks to alleviate concerns in their domestic market for livestock producers. The soybean market closed 5 cents higher on Tuesday in a choppy market. USDA left the soybean carryout for this year unchanged at 190 million bushels. The trade was expecting this to be lowered. Ending stocks for next year were pegged at 365 million bushels. Soybean crop production is expected to come in at 3.31 billion bushels with a yield of 42.9 bushels per acre. South American numbers stayed the same with Brazil coming in at 68 million bushels and Argentina at 54. In the overnight trade corn closed up 6 1/2 cents, beans were 4 cents higher and wheat closed 5 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher but test resistance at 3.82 in July corn and 9.75 in July soybeans.
5-11-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 2 cents yesterday after opening higher on news of an IMF bailout of several European countries suffering from financial problems. This caused the dollar to weaken and drive outside markets higher which supported corn prices early in the session. There was also talk that China had issued import licenses for corn which the trade thought might be as much as 3 to 5 million metric tons. The corn market quickly dropped yesterday, however, as the dollar started to recover and buying interest for corn dwindled. The cold temperatures over the weekend were pretty much shrugged off by the trade as they felt that only minor damage would result to the the crop . The planting progress report showed that 81% of the nations corn crop is now planted which is ahead of the 5 year average of 62%. The soybean market closed 1 cent higher on Monday as equities and crude oil prices were up substantially. Forecasts for wet and cool weather to delay soybean plantings across the Midwest was also supportive to prices yesterday. The planting progress report issued yesterday afternoon showed that 30% of the nations soybean crop is now planted. That compares to the 5 year average of 19%. Weather this week will slow planting but conditions next week are forecast to turn warmer and drier. In the overnight trade corn closed 5 cents lower, beans were down 6 cents and wheat closed 2 cents lower. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
5-10-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 1 cent higher on Friday after closing sharply lower on Thursday due to the big stock market selloff. Traders are still trying to figure out the cause of the 1000 point drop which was partially inspired by the riots in Greece. This afternoon the planting progress report will be released with traders expecting numbers of over 80%. On Tuesday, USDA will release their monthly supply-demand report. Informa estimated the corn acreage on Friday putting it at 89.6 million planted which was higher than their last estimate and .8 million acres above USDA's last estimate. The soybean market closed 6 cents higher on Friday gaining some support from a weaker dollar and a lower soybean acreage estimate from Informa. Informa lowered their soybean acreage by 100 million acres down to 78.5 million. Their estimate, however, is still 400 million acres higher than USDA's March numbers. Tuesday the supply-demand numbers will be out with traders looking for a slightly lower soybean carryout number. The bean planting report out this afternoon is expected to show a number near 40% planted. In the overnight trade corn closed up 5 cents, beans were 9 cents higher and wheat closed up 2 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning based on stronger outside markets, a weaker dollar and talk of a European bailout package by the IMF.
5-6-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO BETTER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents higher on Wednesday on more rumors of possible Chinese interest in US corn. Talk that the Chinese may have interest in as much as 8 to 10 additional cargoes of US corn circulated in the trade yesterday pushing corn futures higher. The market will need to see confirmation on these rumors in the next couple of days to keep the upward price momentum going. Traders yesterday were also concerned about talk of a possible frost in the northern corn belt over the weekend and whether or not this would damage any of the early planted corn crop. Informa will release their latest acreage estimates at mid morning on Friday. It will be interesting to see if they raise corn acreage with the good spring planting weather this year. The soybean market closed 9 cents lower on Wednesday as a stronger dollar, lower stock market and sharply lower crude oil prices helped to drive soybean prices lower yesterday. Weather forecasts continue to call for cooler and wetter conditions for next week which will slow down soybean plantings. Soybean exports came out below expectations this morning at 18.1 million bushels. The trade was looking for a number between 26 to 40. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 cents, beans were 1 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed down 4 cents. Corn exports numbers were friendly this morning coming out at 74.1 million bushels. The trade was only expecting a number about half of that. Corn prices may get a little boost from the strong export number this morning while beans and wheat may continue to struggle on lower outside market prices today.
5-5-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 4 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 3 cents on Tuesday after being much lower during the session. Some covering of short positions came into play prior to the close to give the market a little recovery from the lows of the day. The trade is still looking for confirmation of the supposed 4 to 6 cargoes of US corn the Chinese were rumored to have interest in. Outside markets also continued to weigh on grain prices as the US dollar hit a 12 month high yesterday. Financial problems in several European countries are weakening the Euro and strengthening the US Dollar. Midwest weather forecasts are calling for a little rain over the next 10 days along with cooler temperatures. The soybean market closed 1/2 cent higher yesterday after trading at a 3 week low during the session. The market recovery was attributed to weather forecasts calling for cool and wet conditions to persist across the corn belt over the next week to 10 days. Some are even calling for a frost in portions of the northern Midwest over the weekend. Soybean planting has moved along at a brisk pace over the past week and some expect to see the national soybean planting progress to come in at 40% on Monday's report. In the overnight trade corn closed 4 cents lower, beans were down 2 cents and wheat closed 4 cents lower. Look for the markets to open mixed to lower and put in a two sided trade today. Support may be limited due to pressure from the lower outside markets.
5-4-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 1/2 cents lower on Monday as traders anticipated a big number on Monday Afternoon's planting progress report. Failure to confirm the 4 to 6 cargoes of corn supposedly purchased by the Chinese also helped to drive prices lower yesterday. The weekly export inspections came out at 28.2 million bushels which was a little disappointing to the trade. The USDA planting report yesterday afternoon showed that 68% of the nation's corn crop is now planted which was at the high end of the traders expectations. Last year only 33% of the corn crop was planted at this time with the 5 year average only at 50%. The soybean market closed down 13 1/2 cents yesterday on a lack of any bullish news. A stronger dollar and good weather forecasts allowing planting progress to continue also weighed on prices yesterday. USDA reported that 15% of the nation's soybean crop is now in the ground. The Midwest states of Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio and Minnesota ranged from 11% to 23% competed on soybean plantings. The average soybean planting rate for this time of year is only 8 %. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 cents, beans were 3 cents lower and wheat closed down 4 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning with any rally attempts difficult to sustain due to the lower outside markets and a lack of any new positive news.
5-3-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 1/2 cents higher yesterday after it was confirmed that China bought 115,000 metric tons of US corn out of the Pacific Northwest. This represents the most corn that China has purchased from the US since 2006. The big question now seem to be will china continue to buy more corn from us or is this only a one time deal ? The rally came despite weaker outside markets and a stronger dollar. The weather across the Midwest continues to be good for crop development with some more rains forecast for this weekend. The soybean market closed unchanged in the nearby bids but 4 cents higher for new crop yesterday. Soybeans struggled most of the day and were only pulled higher by the annoucement of China buying US corn. New crop soybeans closed higher because the market is contemplating that bean acres will be lost to corn because of the early planting season. This year's soybean carryout is only expected to be 190 million bushels and if many acres are shifted away from soybeans, then carryout stocks could grow even tighter. In the overnight trade corn closed up 3 cents, beans closed 2 cents higher and wheat was also up 3 cents. Today look for the markets to open steady to higher. The outside markets are somewhat supportive with the dollar lower and crude oil prices higher this morning.
4-28-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 5 cents on Tuesday as the bearish influence of the outside markets drove commodity prices lower yesterday. Crude oil was down over 2 dollars per barrel and the dollar was much stronger. Funds sold 7000 contracts of corn on Tuesday. With well over 50% of the nations corn crop planted and such an early start to spring, the question becomes how many more acres might go into corn than originally thought? Just when everything looks negative, then something comes along to run prices up again. In the overnight trade corn was up 6 cents on a rumor that China was in the market for US corn. Talk was that China feed users wanted to buy a little corn to test the quality. None of this business has yet been confirmed. The soybean market closed 16 cents lower yesterday as the negative sentiment spilled over into the soybean market. The financial problems in Greece and other European countries has caused the dollar to rally in recent weeks. This weakens US exports to foreign countries. In recent days Argentina has sold beans to China for July shipment. It was reported that Brazil recently sold China a shipment of soybean oil. China appears to be turning to South America for their nearby needs. In the overnight trade corn closed 6 cents higher, beans were 4 cents higher and wheat closed up 2 cents. Today look for the markets to open higher but then take direction on the rumors out of China to buy US corn and from outside market influences.
4-27-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down a penny on Monday after trading 6 cents higher early in the session. Early rumors that China may have purchased corn drove the market higher early but when the reports could not be confirmed the prices dropped. Export inspections for corn came in a little better than expected at 32.8 million bushels. The crop progress report yesterday afternoon showed that 50% of the nations corn crop is now planted compared to the 5 year average of 22%. Illinois now has 73% of their corn in the ground along with 68% in Iowa, 63% in Minnesota, 56% in Indiana, and 45% in Ohio. The soybean market closed a penny lower yesterday as a negative bias took over the marketplace. Wheat was sharply lower closing down 17 cents. It was reported on Monday that China bought 2 cargoes of beans from Argentina for July shipment. The Brazilian soybean harvest is now reported to be 94% complete with farmers having sold almost half of their crop to date. Soybean exports came in at 8 million bushels which was lower than expectations. It is still expected that US exports from April through June will remain strong as long as US soybeans stay competetive with Brazil. Some soybeans have been planted now in the Midwest but reporting is not expected to take place until this Monday's progress report. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 1/2 cents, beans were 6 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down a penny. Look for the markets to open lower this morning and struggle to find support. A stronger dollar and weaker outside markets will make it harder for prices to rally today.
4-26-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 7 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 7 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 9 cents on Friday on profit taking ahead of the weekend. Selling became evident from the start of the the trading session as the rapid start to planting followed by some needed rain was deemed to be very beneficial to early crop development. Some in the trade now believe that this afternoon's planting progress report could show that as much as 50% of the nations corn crop is planted. This would be well above the 5 year average. Weather forecasts remain favorable for crop development with warmer temperatures and some more rain expected for this weekend. The soybean market closed 4 cents lower on Friday after trading higher early in the session. Profit taking also came into play in the soybean market as traders headed into the weekend. The rain received over the weekend was viewed as a good thing as many areas were in need of moisture. Planting progress numbers out this afternoon are expected to show good progress for bean planting this past week. Some traders, however, will continue to think that a quick corn planting rate will lead to more corn acres going into the ground this spring taking away from beans. In the overnight trade corn closed up 4 cents, beans were 9 cents higher and wheat closed up 7 1/2 cents. Today look for the markets to open higher and then take direction from the outside markets and weather forecasts.
4-22-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN- STEADY
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents higher on Wednesday on continued short covering and buying interest by the funds. Weather forecasts continue to call for 1 to 2 inch rains across the cornbelt starting on Friday and lasting through the weekend. A couple of more storm systems are expected next week with a wetter system expected to move in late next week and into next weekend. The moisture will be welcome for the crops that are already planted. Monday afternoon the corn planting progress report is expected to show that nearly 40% of the nations corn crop will be planted as of Sunday night. The soybean market closed 12 cents higher yesterday on strong soybean demand. USDA announced another sale of US beans to China for new crop delivery. This brings total sales this week to nearly 406,000 MT. China has nearly twice as many new crop beans purchased this year compared to this time last year. Continued strong demand has helped to prop up soybean prices going into the planting season. Good weather is allowing for a lot of corn to be planted which could result in less bean acres being planted this year. Soybean basis firmed up some yesterday as farmer selling remains slow. In the overnight trade corn closed unchanged, beans were 1 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed a penny lower. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning in line with the overnight trade. The outside markets are a little negative this morning with the dollar showing some strength on continued financial problems in Greece and also Ireland.
4-21-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 8 cents higher on Tuesday gaining back half of what they lost during Monday's session. Higher crude oil prices, a weaker dollar and short covering by traders helped to support prices yesterday. The latest weather forecasts call for 1 to 3 inch rains to fall across the Midwest starting on Friday and lasting through the weekend. This should help recharge some of the soil moisture that has been depleted over the past couple of weeks and will be good for early crop development. The soybean market closed 7 cents higher on Tuesday as demand for soybeans continues strong. USDA, yesterday morning, announced a sale to China for 232,000 tons of US new crop soybeans. Strong Chinese demand continues to prop up US prices. US soybean planting progress is moving along at a very quick pace. Southern states are planting at record speed. Soybeans in Texas are now 55% planted, Louisiana 27% vs 14% average, and Mississippi at 44% complete vs 31% average. Traders feel that US soybean yields this year will need to exceed 40 BPA to keep up with surging world demand. Some in the trade now see China importing 47 MMT of soybeans this year vs USDA's 43.5 MMT estimate. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were nearly unchanged and wheat closed 1/2 cent higher. Look for the markets to open steady to a touch higher in line with the overnight settlements.
4-20-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 16 cents lower on Monday on weaker outside markets, a stronger dollar and on ideas that planting progress is proceeding at record pace. Corn export inspections came out at 37.7 million bushels which was better than the anticipated 30 to 35. In Monday afternoon's progress report corn planting estimates came in at 19% nationwide which was near the record set in one week at 20% in 2004. Next week is also expected to see record planting progress confirmed. Illinois was pegged at 34% complete, Iowa at 19%, Indiana at 17%, Minnesota at 13%, and Ohio and Nebraska at 6 and 5% respectively. The soybean market closed 8 1/2 cents lower on Monday and closed the strongest of the three commodities yesterday. The bean strength came from ideas that more acres will likely be planted to corn given the good weather opportunities this spring. The downside to the good weather is that the Delta is also making rapid progress planting soybeans which could boost yields there this year. Soybean exports came in at came in at 15.7 million bushels which was just a little higher than the expected 11 to 14 million bushels. In the overnight trade corn closed up 3 1/2 cents, beans were 8 cents higher and wheat closed up 7 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning on higher outside markets, a weaker dollar and on ideas that the sell-off on Monday was overdone. Look for some buying interest to resume today.
4-19-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up a penny on Friday and ended the week 18 cents higher. Planting progress was rapid over the weekend with many in the trade expecting to see corn planting come in at 20% done on this afternoon's report. Much of this weeks weather also looks good at least until the weekend when widespread rains are forecast across the Midwest. Rains would be welcome as this will help in the germination process as soils have dried drastically in the last couple of weeks. Overnight markets were all lower this morning on continued concerns over the Goldman Sachs situation. The soybean market closed a penny higher on Friday and closed out the week at 37 cents higher. On Friday the funds bought 2000 bean contracts and are currently long around 45,000 contracts. Soybean prices were higher last week on ideas that the early planting season would allow for more corn and less beans to be planted this spring. Overnight markets were down on lower outside markets due to uncertainty over the Chinese economic growth as the government cracks down on investments. In the overnight trade corn closed down 6 cents, beans were 7 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 3 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning on a stronger dollar, weaker outside markets and a record planting pace which is expected to continue through much of this week.
4-16-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 cents higher on Thursday on renewed fund buying. The rally effort the last couple of days has been mostly technical in nature and is not substantiated by any new positive developments. The forecast for the Midwest remains favorable for planting progress with only minor interruptions expected due to rain to impede progress. Record planting progress could be seen on Monday's report. The next potential rain event does not come until April 22nd. Weekly export inspections on Thursday's report came in a little better than expected for corn. Japan, Mexico and South Korea were the main buyers. The soybean market closed 5 cents better on Thursday as the funds continued their buying for another day. Good planting weather will allow for a lot of corn to be planted over the next couple of weeks which could reduce bean acres. China continues to buy US soybeans as export inspections came out a little better than expected on Thursday. China accounted for 79% of these sales. Argentina's bean harvest is now 44% complete with record yields expected. In the overnight trade corn closed 2 cents lower, beans were up 2 cents and wheat closed unchanged. Today look for prices to open mixed with corn expected to open a little lower and beans a little higher.
4-14-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 1/2 cents higher on Monday on a weaker dollar and fund buying which was generated by continued attempts to resolve Greece's financial problems. Favorable weather for the Midwest, however, limited the upward momentum. Weather this week will be good for active planting across the cornbelt. USDA reported yesterday the nationwide corn planting at 3 % complete, up from 2% last year but below the five year average of 4%. Texas had the most corn planted at 48% followed by 15% in Tennessee and 10% in Kentucky. Most of the Midwest states came in at 1% done, while Kansas was right on the 5 year average of 7%. Missouri came in at 9% complete below their 5 year ave of 16%. The soybean market closed 8 cents higher yesterday sparked by an old crop bean sale to China and a much weaker dollar. The Chinese sale came as a surprise yesterday because many traders have been expecting to see demand for US beans drop and turn toward South America. Recent sales to China have put into question whether USDA has understated soybean demand for the current marketing year. Harvest continues to move along in South America with Brazilian bean harvest now projected to be 81% complete which is 12% ahead of last year. In the overnight trade corn and beans closed down 2 cents and wheat closed a penny higher. Look for the markets to open a little lower this morning on weaker outside markets and a good weather forecast to allow fiieldwork to continue this week and into next.
4-12-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 1/2 cents lower on Friday after opening higher following the release of the USDA supply-demand report. USDA raised ending stocks by 100 million bushels to 1.899 billion bushels. Many in the trade were expecting a larger number. A decrease in feed residual was the main change on the report. Despite a friendly report and a weaker dollar, the market sold off on fund liquidation prior to the weekend. The improving weather forecast for the Midwest also put pressure on prices. The soybean market closed nearly 6 cents higher on Friday after the USDA surprisingly left bean carryout stocks unchanged at 190 million bushels. Most in the trade were expecting the carryout number to grow to nearly 210 million bushels. The South American soybean crop was raised by 1.5 MMT. Harvest there is progressing rapidly with good weather. Brazil's soybean yields are now expected to reach 44.3 bpa with Argentina expected to come in at 43.7. Last year US soybeans yields came in at 44 bushels per acre. South American production is now projected to increase by 27 MMT over last year. Many traders, however, feel that growing world demand will offset the increase in supply. In the overnight trade corn closed 3 1/2 cents higher, beans were up 6 cents and wheat closed 5 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning on a weaker dollar and renewed buying interst.
4-8-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 8 cents on Thursday on heavy profit taking and fund selling after the dime runnup in prices on Wednesday. Rumors of Chinese purchases of corn were not confirmed and thus traders exited some of their long positions. Export inpection numbers released on Thursday came in higher than expected at 53.5 million bushels. South Korea was the main buyer followed by Japan and Mexico. The weather in the Midwest in the coming week looks good for fieldwork to continue. Most of the rainfall in the next two weeks is expected to be light and cause only minor delays in planting. USDA on their supply demand report this morning put the corn carryout for 09/10 at 1.899 billion bushels. this was an increase of 100 million bushels from the previous month but lower than 1.910 billion bushels expected. The soybean market closed 6 cents lower yesterday on weaker outside markets and on lack of confirmation of any Chinese rumors of interest in corn and DDG's. Soybean exports came in at 16.3 million bushels with China accounting for most of those sales. USDA released their supply demand report this morning leaving soybean ending stocks at 190 million bushels. The trade was expecting a number around 210. Argentina's soybean crop increased by 1 MMT and Brazil's crop increased by .5 MMT. In the overnight trade corn closed up 2 1/2 cents, beans were up nearly 3 cents and wheat closed 3 cents higher. Look for the markets to open slightly higher due to a weaker dollar and higher outside markets.
4-7-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed a penny higher on Tuesday despite a stronger dollar. The corn market was led up by sharply higher wheat prices. The USDA supply demand report will be released at 7:30 on Friday morning. The trade is expecting a number around 2 billion bushels for corn carryout mainly due to the larger stocks report released on March 31st. The Monday afternoon crop progress report showed that many southern states were lagging behind their normal corn planting pace. Missouri was only 1% planted compared to 8% on average. Louisiana is about the only state ahead of schedule. The soybean market closed 8 1/2 cents higher yesterday despite good yield reports coming out of South America. The Argentina government is estimating their soybean crop at a record 55 MMT. The weather forecast is calling for warm and dry conditions over the next 10 to 14 days in Argentina which will allow for rapid harvest progress. Argentina's soybean harvest is estimated to be nearing 40% complete. The Brazilian soybean crop is expected to approach 67 MMT which is up from the March estimate of 65.7 MMT. Brazil's soybean crop is now estimated at 75% harvested VS last year's 61%. In the overnight trade corn closed 2 cents lower, beans wer down 2 cents and wheat closed 4 cents lower. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight trade.
4-6-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed a penny higher yesterday after the long holiday weekend. Corn futures were hit hard last week after the USDA reported corn stocks that were nearly 200 million bushels above the average trade guess and 740 million bushels higher than last year. This could push carryout numbers this year above 2 billion bushels. The markets will now turn their attention more to the weather. The latest 6 to 10 day forecast calls for normal rainfall and above normal temperatures for the Midwest. This should allow for some planting to occur between rains. The soybean market closed 6 cents lower on Monday after USDA reports last week found an additional 62 million bushels of soybean stocks. This will put carryout numbers at a much more comfortable level of between 200 to 250 million bushels. USDA also put 2010 soybean acres at a record high of 78.1 million which could likely grow to an even higher number in the weeks ahead, depending on the weather. South American weather continues to look favorable for harvest progress. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were 2 cents higher and wheat closed a penny lower. Look for the markets to open steady to slightly higher this morning after a choppy overnight session.
4-1-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 15 TO 20 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 5 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 1/2 cents lower on Tuesday in a day of pre-positioning ahead of the USDA planting and stocks report. USDA released their acreage and stocks report at 7:30 this morning. Corn acreage numbers came in at 88.8 million. The average trader guess was at 89.2 million acres. The March 1st stocks number came in at 7.694 billion bushels. The trade was looking for a number close to 7.5. Corn acreage is expected to increase by 3% from last year mainly due to the decrease in wheat acres planted last fall. The soybean market closed 6 1/2 cents higher on Tuesday mostly due to short covering before the USDA reports. This morning the USDA put the soybean acreage at 78.1 million which was pretty much in line with the traders guess at 78.5. Soybean acres are up a little less than 1% from last year, but would still be the largest on record. March 1 soybean stocks came in at 1.270 billion bushels. The trade was expecting a number close to 1.207 billion bushels. Both the corn and the soybean stocks number came out higher than expected and could be viewed as somewhat bearish to the market today. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 cents, beans were unchanged and wheat closed down a penny. Look for the markets to open lower this morning due to the USDA reports.
3-30-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed a penny higher yesterday as traders evened up positions prior to the USDA report on Wednesday. A weaker dollar and stronger outside markets created renewed interest in commodities by the funds. Good weather forecats across the Midwest, however, have limited the upside potential especially in corn. Corn export inpections came out a little better than expected on Monday at 37.8 million bushels. On Wednesday's USDA report, traders are looking for around 89 million acres to be planted to corn this spring. A number above that would be considered bearish and below that friendly. The soybean market closed 15 1/2 cents higher on Monday as traders reacted to the expanding labor strike in Argentina. As many as seven ports in Argentina are now believed to be affected by the strike. This is creating long lines to get trucks dumped. The weather in South America remains good for crop development and fieldwork to continue. Rain delays are not expected to slow harvest for very long. Soybean export inpections came out at 29.3 million bushels which was in line with expectations. China was the main buyer. In the ovenight trade corn closed up 1 1/2 cents, beans were 2 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed 4 1/2 cents higher. Look for the markets to start off higher this morning on support of the dollar and the outside markets. Trade should be choppy today ahead of the USDA reports tommorrow.
3-29-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed a penny higher on Friday after a week where corn prices dropped 12 cents. A lot of liquidation was seen over the past week due to a stronger dollar and improving weather forecasts which will allow for some fieldwork to begin across the Midwest. USDA will be releasing their planting and stocks report on Wednesday. Look for the trade to do some evening up prior to the release of these reports. The weather pattern for the upcoming week looks warmer and drier and could take some of the weather premium out of prices. The soybean market closed 9 cents higher on Friday as talks of a broadened labor strike in Argentina aided soybean prices. The report on Wednesday has the trade concerned that US soybean stocks may tighten again creating a dwindling carryout supply. The US may remain the most reliable supplier of soybeans as long as the strike in Argentina continues to threaten supplies there. We could see some temporary runnup in soybean prices from time to time as the US pipeline thins. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were 7 cents higher and wheat closed up 3 1/2 cents. Look for prices to start off the session higher and then take direction from the influence of the dollar and the other outside markets.
3-26-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 10 cents lower on Thursday on continued liquidation as improving forecasts for next week could allow for some field work to take place in the Midwest. If planting can take place on time this year then more acres could go into corn, shifting some acres away from beans. On Wednesday, March 31st USDA will estimate the planted acreage for this year's crops. The average trade estimate for next week's report comes in at 89.2 million acres planted to corn this spring. The ongoing strength of the dollar and improving weather forecasts continue to pressure grain prices. The soybean market closed 17 1/2 cents lower yesterday partially on talks that 1 to 2 million acres in the Delta may be switched from cotton to soybeans due to the high cotton production costs there. An improving Midwest weather pattern looks to improve chances of a normal planting season. Weather in Argentina and Brazil should allow for more harvest progress to continue with only minor harvest delays expected. The Argentine dockers strike still remains unresolved but is having little impact so far. The average trader guess for next week's report has soybean acres at 78.5 million vs 77.5 for last year. The soybean stocks guess came in at 1.204 vs 1.302 last year. In the overnight trade corn closed up nearly 2 cents, beans were up 5 1/2 cents and wheat closed a penny higher. Today look for the markets to start off higher on a weaker dollar but will follow the influence of the outside markets as the day wears on.
3-25-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents higher on Wednesday as some private estimates of corn acres to be planted this year came in lower than previous estimates. Farm Futures estimated corn acreage at 87.3 million which is up less than 1 million from last year. Many in the trade thought that farmers would plant nearly 90 million acres to corn this spring. The trade will be anxious to see what USDA comes up with on their March 31st acreage report. The US Dollar continues to soar to new highs on Greece's financial problems. This is generally bearish to commodities. The soybean market closed 8 cents lower as early acreage estimates showed soybean plantings up nearly 2 million acres from last year. Farm Futures magazine put US soybean plantings this spring at 79.4 million acres. If that comes to fruition it would add sizeably to US stocks for the next crop year. This will have to be verified by USDA on the March 31st acreage and stocks report. March US soybean stocks, however, are expected to come in well below last years' levels after a year of record exports. In the overnight trade corn closed nearly unchanged, beans were 4 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed up a penny. Look for the markets to open slightly higher this morning with a choppy trade expected for much of the day.
3-24-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 8 cents lower on Tuesday on heavy fund selling. Funds sold nearly 12,000 contracts of corn yesterday. A warmer temperature outlook with less moisture into mid April may have been responsible for some of the selloff. A stonger dollar also contributed to the negative tone on Tuesday. The trade is anxiously awaiting the March 31st acreage and stocks reports. The average acreage guess on corn is at 89.95 million acres which is 3.4 million higher than last year. Southern states are now planting corn with Louisiana 40% complete vs 42% average and Mississippi now at 33% complete vs the 22% normally planted by now. The soybean market closed 1/2 cent lower on Tuesday after trading in positive territory early in the session. Sales of 120,000 mt of beans for new crop shipment were announced prior to the market opening. Continued talk of a strike at one of Argentina's northern ports gave the soybean market an early boost. Trade guesses for the March 31st acreage reports will be released later this week with USDA putting out their numbers next Wednesday. Most analysts are expecting a 1 to 2 million acre increase over last year's 77.5 million acres of soybeans planted. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 1/2 cents, beans were 8 cents lower and wheat closed down 3 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning and then take direction from the way the dollar and outside markets are trading. This morning the dollar was up sharply and gold and crude oil prices were much lower.
3-23-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents lower on Monday as the dollar soared to new highs, up over 300 points at one time during the day. Other outside markets were also lower which pressured corn prices. Weekly export inspections were better than expected for corn coming in at 41.6 million bushels. All eyes will be focused on the weather over the upcoming weeks. This week appears to be relatively dry across the Midwest. Rains are expected to return to the corn belt during late March and early April. If this does occur, some more weather premium may be added to the markets. The soybean market closed 7 cents higher on Monday as some new fund buying came into the markets shortly after the opening bell. Funds bought nearly 4000 soybean contracts. Weekly export inspections came out at 32 million bushels with China taking nearly half of that total. Argentina is expected to see some drying this week, which will help them continue with harvest. They are currently about 20% harvested. More showers are expected for Argentina next week. Brazil is now 60% complete with harvest but will see more rain next week which could hamper harvest progress there. In the overnight trade corn and wheat closed nearly unchanged while beans closed 2 1/2 cents higher. Today look for the markets to trade mixed to slightly higher on the opening and then trade on both sides of the close.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 1 1/2 cents lower on Friday as the stronger US dollar kept corn prices in check. Informa released their acreage estimates on Friday coming out with 88.427 million acres being planted to corn this spring. The trade was expecting a number near 90 million. Last year we planted only 86.482 million acres to corn. This number, however, did not have much effect on the direction of corn prices on Friday. The trade still remains concerned that planting delays could continue to grow if the weather doesn't cooperate in the next couple of weeks. The soybean market closed 2 cents higher on Friday as the market recovered near the close of the trading session. Informa estimated bean acreage at 78.629 million acres which was a little higher than their last estimate of 77.919. Last year US farmers planted 77.451 million acres to soybeans. Argentina had some wet weather over the weekend which will postpone harvest there for a couple of days. Harvest progress should continue in Brazil until this weekend when heavy rains are again likely to stall harvest progress. In the overnight trade corn and beans both closed down 2 1/2 cents and wheat closed up a penny. The dollar was slightly stronger this morning and crude oil was tading lower. Look for the markets to trade on both sides of the close today but mostly taking on a weaker sentiment.
OPENING CALLS: CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents lower on Thursday in a day of choppy trading. Corn export sales fell short of expectations coming in at only 15.8 million bushels. A lower stock market, crude oil and lower financials also pressured grain prices yesterday. On March 10th USDA will report on their resurvey of farmers 2009 production and make any necessary corrections to the January crop production numbers. This report will try to take into account any crop losses due to the late harvest in many states this year. The soybean market closed 14 cents lower on Thursday on slow export sales and weaker outside markets. Argentina crop estimates continue to grow larger with some now thinking that their production may reach 55 to 56 MMT. Current USDA estimates are at 53. This would be almost 75% bigger than last year's soybean crop. On March 31st, USDA will release their acreage estimates for our spring plantings. The Ag Forum in February showed a small reduction in soybean acres over last year. Many feel that some CRP acres and some of the wheat acres that did not get planted last fall will go into soybeans. That report will be one to watch. In the overnight trade corn closed up 3 1/2 cents, beans were nearly unchanged and wheat closed up a penny. Look for the markets to open steady to higher this morning on a weaker dollar and stronger outside markets.
2-25-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 5 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 5 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 1/2 cents higher on Wednesday as the trade contemplates the possiblity of another cool-wet spring scenario. The funds started putting money back into commodities yesterday adding some weather premium back into the markets. Heavy snowpack in the midwest is causing some fears of flooding problems this spring. Iowa currently has a snowpack of 15 inches while last year at this time there was none. The recent runnup in corn prices is cutting back on ethanol margins, however, ethanol blending is 20% higher than last year with decent blending margins right now. The soybean market closed 3 cents higher yesterday as funds bought 5000 contracts of soybeans throughout the day. The trade has been concerned that the wet weather in South America could reduce soybean yields as harvest, especially in Brazil, continues to be delayed. Brazil's forecast remains wet for the highly productive areas of Mato Grosso and Goias ove the next 7 days. Argentina's weather, however, looks much drier over the next two weeks which will better prepare the ground for harvest. USDA is currently estimating the Argentine soybean crop to come in around 53 MMT. In the overnight trade corn closed down 1 1/2 cents, beans were 6 cents lower and wheat closed down 6 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning on weaker outside markets and lower crude oil prices.
2-24-10
OPENING CALLS: CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 4 cents on Tuesday after profit taking from Monday's rally was evident. A stronger US dollar and weaker outside markets also put downward pressure on prices. The trade continues to grapple with ideas that we may be setting up to have another cool wet spring which could cause some planting delays again this year. A lot of fieldwork remains to done this spring as harvest ran so late last year that a lot of fall work did not get done. The trade is anxiously awaiting the USDA acreage and supply-demand reports to be released in March. Soybean futures closed down 9 cents on Tuesday as higher prices for much of the session were not able to hold into the close. Traders took profits after two days of higher prices. South American weather continues to add uncertainty to the grain markets. Longer range forecasts still show parts of Brazil to receive too much rain over the next couple of weeks. Regular precipitation in central and northern areas will slow fieldwork. Argentina will see some much needed drier weather over the coming days but will see some more significant rain early next week. In the overnight trade corn closed up 3 cents, beans were 4 cents higher and wheat closed nearly unchanged. Look for the markets to open higher this morning, however, lower outside markets will likely limit the upside potential.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher on Friday as the USDA Outlook Conference last week showed an increase of only 2.5 million acres more going into corn over last year. The trade was anticipating a larger figure since as much as 6 million acres didn't get planted to wheat this past fall and 2.5 million acres are eligible to come out of the CRP. Ethanol margins improved last week to nearly double what they had been. Weather premiums could now start to show up in the markets as it looks like a wet spring may be on tap. The soybean market closed 3 cents lower on Friday as Argentina bean crop estimates continue to grow on near ideal conditions in February. Their soybean crop is now estimated to be near 56 MMT. The USDA Ag Outlook Conference put soybean acreage at 77 million vs 77.5 last year. The trade is thinking that more acres could actually get planted to soybeans this year than those numbers project. Export inspections are due out this morning with trade guesses falling between 30 to 34 million bushels. In the overnigt trade corn closed up 5 cents, beans were 8 cents higher and wheat closed up 3 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning on a weaker dollar and stronger outside markets.
OPENING CALLS: CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 10 TO 12 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 1 1/2 cents higher in a day of choppy trading. The corn market has traded higher every do this week until now. Today might be a different story going into the long holiday weekend. China continues to try to slow down their economy and keep inflation under control by regulating bank reserve requirements. This is seen as an attempt to slow growth and will reduce their demand for products. The US Dollar is stronger this morning because of this move by China. The soybean market closed 5 1/2 cents higher on Thursday on higher crude oil prices and stronger outside markets. Talk of higher South American soybean basis due to large vessel lineups in Brazil was supportive to our markets. Brazil is now estimated to be almost 15% complete with bean harvest. Soybeans have been reported to be yielding in the mid 40's range. The trade will be anxiously awaiting the USDA acreage estimates to be released at the Ag Forum on February 18th. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 cents, beans were down 10 cents and wheat closed down a dime. Look for the markets to open lower and probably stay lower most of the day as some profit taking is expected ahead of the long holiday weekend.
2-11-10
OPENING CALLS: CORN -1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 3 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher on Wednesday after the USDA Supply Demand report increased corn use for ethanol by 100 million bushels. They projected corn ending stocks to come in at 1.719 billion bushels. This was 30 million bushels less than the average of analysts estimates. USDA did raise the estimate of the Argentine corn crop to 17.2 MMT which is up 2.2 MMT from their January estimate. The USDA weekly export sales report normally released today will be delayed until at least Friday due to the snow storm in Washington D.C. The soybean market closed 13 cents higher yesterday as the recent liquidation phase in the marketplace has finally subsided. The USDA report released on Tuesday reduced soybean carryout by 35 million bushels which has helped to give the market some support. The big surprise on Tuesday's report was the decrease in world soybean ending stocks. World ending stocks are now estimated to be down slightly from last month's 59.8 MMT. In the overnight trade corn closed up 2 cents, beans were 8 cents higher and wheat closed 3 cents lower. Today look for the markets to start off higher in line with the overnight trade. South American weather remains mostly favorable to crops and it will be intersesting to see how the market reacts to this if the current trend continues.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 4 cents in another day of continued liquidation in the corn market. Several things have eroded the prices over the past two weeks including adding 300 million more bushels to the corn crop, the governments attempts to regulate banks investments in hedge funds, Chinese attempts to slow down their economy, and continued good weather in South America which adds to the size of their corn and soybean crops. The State of The Union Address last night did seem to soften the President's stance against the banks somewhat which could be good for commodities. The soybean market closed 18 1/2 cents lower yesterday as it has been hard to find any bullish news in the marketplace lately. Continued strength in the dollar will weaken demand and the lower outside markets are not adding any support either. The trade realizes that with South America's harvest growing closer, demand will shift to the Southern Hemisphere soon. The good news is that the markets are due for a technical correction to the upside, so maybe the market is getting close to finding a bottom. In the overnight trade corn closed nearly unchanged, beans were up 2 cents and wheat closed a penny higher. Today look for the markets to open steady to mixed and then possibly trade higher into the close.
1-27-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 4 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher on Monday as light fund buying helped to support corn prices. There was some talk in the trade yesterday that China was going to revalue their currency sometime this week which would make US products cheaper and more competetive. Corn export inspections yesterday came out a little disappointing at 21 million bushels which was 10 million bushels lower than the previous week. More planting estimates continue to be released on corn most of which are 90 million acres plus. The soybean market closed down another 11 cents on Monday as crop prospects in South America continue to improve. Soybeans have now lost nearly 90 cents in the past 10 days. Fear that the government will implement a 3 year spending freeze has outide markets lower and the dollar stronger this morning. Continued talks about government controls over banking investments have some in the trade feeling that trading volume will be subdued because of this. In the overnight trade corn closed down 4 1/2 cents, beans were 6 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 4 cents. Today look for the markets to open lower and struggle to find support on weaker outside markets and a stronger dollar.
1-25-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 7 cents on Friday as liquidation in the grain markets continued for another day. Informa came out with their planting estimates for this spring coming in at 89.6 million acres. This was 3.2 million acres higher than last year. Much of this increase is believed to be coming from acres that did not get planted to winter wheat this past fall and also some acreage coming out of the Conservation Reserve Program. The stock market and other outside markets were all sharply lower last week due to the governments plans to restrict banks investments in some risky hedge funds. Chinese attempts to slow down their economy also weighed on prices. The soybean market closed 2 1/2 cents lower on Friday and closed down 22 cents for the week. Pressure from the weak outside markets and good South American weather helped to drive prices lower over the past week. Informa showed a slightly higher acreage number for the coming year coming in at 77.9 million acres. Last year the US planted 77.5 million acres to soybeans. A hot and dry weather forecast for Argentina over the coming week may give the market some support today. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were down a penny and wheat closed up one cent.
1-22-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents higher on Thursday after a week of closing lower. Corn markets closed higher yesterday despite sharply lower crude oil prices and a stronger dollar. Argentina's corn crop is now being estimated at 18 MMT which is much higher than USDA's current 15 MMT projection. Informa will also be releasing their new crop planting estimates this morning. Informa's last estimate showed an increase in corn acres for next year by 3.3 million acres to 89. 5 million acres planted. Some feel that their estimate today may be over 90 million acres since USDA lowered their winter wheat acreage numbers on the January reports. The soybean market closed 4 cents higher on Thursday despite some negative outside market influences. USDA did however announce another soybean sales to China yesterday as the US remains competitive on soybeans and soybean products to foreign countries. If sales stay strong into March, US soybean stocks could actually be lower than year ago levels. Informa will release their planting estimates later this morning. December's estimate was nearly unchanged from the previous year, however, with less winter wheat acreage planted this year, soybean plantings could climb. In the overnight trade corn closed down 4 cents, beans were 2 cents lower and wheat also closed down 4 cents. Today look for the markets to open lower and then trade on both sides of the close.
1-21-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed a penny lower on Wednesday after being 5 to 6 cents lower for most of the day. A stronger dollar and weaker outside markets contributed to the selloff. Talks of continued lending restrictions in China have spurred another round of commodity selling. The Chinese government wants their banks to increase their reserves to stave off a future bubble burst similar to what happened in the US economy last year. This however has he markets worried that this action will slow Chinese growth and have global repurcussions. The soybean market closed 13 1/2 cents lower on Wednesday as South American weather continues mostly farorable for growing conditions for the next two weeks. Record crops in Argentina and Brazil look possible for this year and will likely continue to weigh on soybean prices. Currently soybean harvest is nearly 5% done in Matto Grasso in Brazil but most of the harvesting will not start there until late February. Argentina's harvest will not get going good until late March. Good growing weather is still needed through March to secure a good soybean crop. In the overnight trade corn closed nearly unchanged, beans closed 4 cents higher and wheat closed nearly unchanged. Today look for grain prices to open lower and struggle to close higher.
1-20-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 3 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 10 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 1/2 cents lower on Friday after the bearish USDA report on Tuesday caused corn futures to close 51 cents lower for the week. Bearish planting prospects for next year also continue to hang over the marketplace as up to 15 million more acres will be available to be planted to either corn or soybean crops. There were over 6 million acres that did not get planted to wheat last fall along with 2.7 million acres to be released from the Conservation Reserve Program and another 6 million that will come out from feed grains and cotton acreage. The soybean market closed a dime lower on Friday and was down 48 cents for the week. The USDA report did show a slight reduction in carryover but this was overshadowed by projections of a big South American crop and much higher planting prospects for US soybean crops. Crush margins remain favorable and exports for meal and oil sales continue strong. South America continues to get decent rains although heavy rains in Brazil will slow down early harvest efforts there. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 1/2 cents, beans were 3 cents lower and wheat closed a dime lower. Look for the markets to open lower this morning due to a strengthening dollar and weaker outside markets. If any rally attempt is made, it is likely to come later in the trading session today.
1-15-10
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - STEADY TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 3 cents yesterday as fund liquidation continued to put pressure on corn prices. The bearish USDA report released on Tuesday showing an increase in production of 300 million bushels continues to plague the marketplace. Poor corn export sales coming out below expectations also pressured the market yesterday. No new crop sales were reported and a few cancellations were even noted. The soybean market closed down 9 cents on Thursday even though strong crush numbers were reported in December along with good export numbers for the week. The fear of much larger crops coming out of South America continues to put downward pressure on soybean prices. Argentina soybean crops will be much larger this year as ample rainfall has fallen throughout that country most of the year. Nearly 1 billion more bushels of soybean production is expected out of South America this year. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 cents, beans were nearly unchanged and wheat closed down 4 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning with a stronger dollar and weaker crude oil markets putting downward pressure on grain prices.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents lower on Thursday as a stronger US Dollar kept corn prices on the defensive. Icing conditions on the Illinois and Mississippi rivers is growing worse each day as cold temperatures continue to dominate across the Midwest. Corn export numbers were considered bearish yesterday as only 14.4 million bushels were reported for export. Overnight markets found some support on talk of rebalancing fund activity. Some in the trade feel that the funds may buy as much as 50,000 corn contracts over the coming week. The soybean market closed 33 cents lower on Thursday as talk that China was going to raise interest rates to slow growth. This caused the dollar to strengthen which drove grain prices lower yesterday. South America weather continues to be fairly good for crop development although there has been some localized flooding in parts of Argentina. It is expected that China will be looking to buy more South American beans in the coming month as their harvest gets underway. In the overnight trade corn closed up 2 cents, beans were down 8 cents and wheat closed 2 cents lower. Look for the markets to be supported today by the increased fund activity especially in corn.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 13 1/2 cents lower on Friday as a more favorable weather forecast should allow harvest to pick up this week. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are in the forecast for the next 10 days. Measurable rains are not expected across the corn belt until the middle of next week. The crop progress report will be released this afternoon and is expected to come in at about 30% complete on corn. The trade will be watching the numbers put out by FC Stone and Informa this week on crop production estimates. The soybean market closed 7 1/2 cents lower on Friday as extended forecasts showed above normal temps and below normal precipitation for the next 10 days. Stronger outside markets and a lower dollar this morning has market calls a little higher. News that China's manufacturing index was up this past month by 55% confirms that the economy is strengthening. Traders will be watching for indications that funds may decide to put new money into grains in the coming days. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were up 7 cents and wheat closed a penny lower. Today look for the markets to open higher and then trade on both sides of the close.
10-29-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 8 TO 11 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 9 TO 11 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 7 cents on Tuesday as traders expect better harvest weather for next week. This should be a big improvement from last week where only 3% of the nations corn crop got harvested. Next week a couple of private crop estimates will be issued. FC Stone will release their estimates on November 4th followed by Informa shortly after. USDA will release their estimates on November 10th. Most in the trade are looking for an increase over the October numbers. The soybean market closed 13 cents lower on Tuesday as another day of fund selling and profit taking was evident. The trade is anticipating that harvest progress will pick up next week as weather improves. Some good harvest progress was made last week in Indiana, Ohio and Michigan as double digit gains were made in all those states. The Delta states continue to be delayed with increasing concerns about quality issues there. More talk circulated in the trade yesterday that China will likely be deferring additional cargoes of beans into forward months. In the overnight trade corn closed down 6 cents, beans were 11 cents lower and wheat closed down 10 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning as weather forecasts show improvements to speed up harvest progress next week.
10-27-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 20 cents lower on Monday after opening in positive territory. Better weather forecasts for next week calling for drier conditions to allow harvest to resume caused prices to collapse. Fund selling quickly took over the marketplace as traders opted to take profits. The government released the latest crop progress report yesterday afternoon. The nations corn crop now stands at 20% harvested compared to 37% last year and the 5 year average of 58% complete. Corn exports were also dissappointing yesterday coming in below expectations at 23.996 million bushels. The soybean market closed down 19 1/2 cents on Monday as the dollar was stronger and outside markets were weaker. The trade is now looking for some losses to the soybean crop in the Delta area. Recent heavy rains have delayed harvest and have caused some crop damage. Some feel that as much as 16% yield loss may result from the inclement weather this fall. The crop progress report on Monday showed that only 44% of the nations soybean crop has been harvested compared to the 5 year average of 80%. There was talk in the trade yesterday that China may have either cancelled or deferred some current soybean deliveries. That was not friendly to the bean market. In the overnight trade corn closed down a penny, beans were unchanged and wheat closed 3 1/2 cents lower. Today look for the markets to open steady to slightly lower and then trade on both sides of the close.
10-26-09
n late last week and early into the weekend kept harvest progress to a minimum. More rain is predicted for Wednesday and Thursday. Some forecasters see a drier and milder pattern setting up for this weekend and continuing into early next week. This could be a little bearish for prices today if this forecast actually holds up. Some in the trade feel that the market may be overbought and due for a correction. The soybean market closed 1/2 cent higher on Friday as further weather problems continue to slow harvest activity. The Delta area has been delayed for nearly two months in harvesting soybeans and the quality of the remaining crop continues to grow worse. Soybean harvest across the nation remains well behind the normal pace of 80% complete. Brazil's planting pace is 4% above last year with nearly 20% of the soybean crop now planted. In the overnight trade corn closed up 2 cents, beans were 3 cents higher and wheat closed up 5 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning and then trade on both sides of the close. Traders will be watching the latest weather forecasts for signs of improved conditions to allow harvest to resume.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 10 cents lower on Thursday as weather forecasts backed off on rain amounts for next week. We will have to see if these forecasts actually hold up. Longer range forecasts for November are calling for near normal temperatures and normal precipitation for the Eastern Corn Belt. The market also saw some profit taking yesterday as corn prices have run up nearly 50 cents in a month's time. Corn export sales will be released today and are expected to come in between 27 to 35 million bushels. The soybean market closed 11 cents lower on Thursday on talk of improved weather for early next week which is believed to encourage some harvest activity. Also adding to the negative bias was talk that China cancelled 2 to 3 cargoes of beans and it is believed that some soybean meal slaes were switched from the US to South America. The trade was also talking about some position re-balancing next week by one of the big index funds which could weigh negatively on the soybean and wheat markets. In the overnight trade corn closed nearly unchanged, beans were up 2 cents and wheat closed up 2 1/2 cents. This morning look for the markets to open steady to to a little higher and then take direction from the latest weather forecasts.
1015-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 19 TO 21 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed a penny higher on Wednesday after trading much higher earlier in the session. Fund buying and a weaker US Dollar helped to encourage higher prices. Wet weather continues to delay harvest across much of the nation and dry down of the corn crop has progressed at a very slow pace. Only 6% of the corn crop has been harvested in Illinois compared to the 5 year average of 56%. Current weather forecasts offer little relief from the wet weather conditions with more rain expected over the next 10 days. Heaviest amounts favor the southern part of the Midwest. The soybean market closed a penny higher yesterday after trading double digits higher during the session. Wet weather across the country continues to delay harvest activity. Only 23% of the nations soybean crop has been harvested compared to a normal pace of 57% complete. Heavy rains once again fell across the Delta region in the past 36 hours continuing to delay harvest there. Quality issues may become a real problem in this area. Profit taking was seen late in the session yesterday which drove prices down from there highs. In the overnight session corn closed down 9 1/2 cents, beans were 21 cents lower and wheat closed down 7 1/2 cents. Weather forecasts have improved this morning with less rain expected for next week. Look for the markets to open lower this morning with traders attention being focussed on the latest weather reports.
10-14-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 19 cents higher on Monday as weather premium was added back into the market due to the frost and freezing temperatures across the Midwest over the weekend and wet conditions which continue to delay harvest. The trade is still trying to figure out just how much damage was done to the crop as a result of the frost. Some in the trade feel that as much as 230 million bushels of corn may have been impacted. This week's forecast contains some rain along with cool temperatures but next week appears to be warmer and drier. The soybean market closed 35 cents higher yesterday on delays in harvest, strong export demand and stronger outside markets. USDA will release their crop progress report today. Last week beans were only 15% harvested and not much progress has been accomplished this past week. One year ago, soybean harvest was nearly 48% complete and the 5 year average comes in at 56%. Outside markets were higher this morning and the dollar weaker. The stock market is higher this morning and could break the 10,000 mark today. In the overnight trade corn closed a penny lower, beans were 7 cents higher and wheat closed up 2 cents. Look for a choppy market this morning with trade expected on both sides of the close.
10-12-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 11 TO 13 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents lower on Friday after USDA released their crop production estimates coming in at 13.018 billion bushels with a national yield of 164.2 BPA. USDA lowered both the corn planted and harvested acreage by over 500,000 acres. Wet weather across the corn belt continues to delay harvest progress and frost and freezing temperatures over the weekend has hurt the corn crop. The trade will be trying to get a handle on the extent of the damage today and in the days to come. The overnight session was higher on the frost damage concerns and stonger outside markets. The soybean market closed 28 cents higher on Friday as wet weather has delayed harvest across much of the nation. Rain and flooding conditions in the south and Delta regions has slowed soybean harvest. Muddy conditions there will make it difficult to combine beans for quite some time. The pipeline for beans is growing thin as many vessels line up at the Gulf waiting to be loaded with new crop soybeans. China's demand for beans remains fairly strong as they continue to stockpile agricultural products. In the overnight trade corn closed up 9 1/2 cents, beans were 17 cents higher and wheat closed up 10 cents. Today look for the markets to open higher and trade higher throughout the session.
10-9-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 7 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up 4 cents on Thursday as a weaker dollar and stronger outside markets strengthened commodity prices. USDA released their crop production numbers this morning at 13.018 billion bushels which is up from their September estimate of 12.995. Corn yields are expected to average 164.2 BPA which is up from last month's estimate of 161.9 and much higher than last year's 153.9 BPA yield. Corn ending stocks for 2009/10 came in at 1.672 billion bushels which is 37 million bushels higher than the September estimate. The soybean market closed 24 cents higher on Thursday as wet weather across a good portion of the country continues to delay harvest. More rainfall is expected next week over areas that are already saturated, which will further delay harvest progress. USDA released their crop production numbers this morning putting the soybean crop at 3.250 billion bushels. This is just slightly higher than USDA's September estimate of 3.245. Yields are expected to average 42.4 BPA compared to last year's average of 39.7. Soybean ending stocks are now expected to come in at 230 million bushels which is up only 10 million bushels from September's figures. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were down 4 1/2 cents and wheat closed 4 cents lower. Look for the markets to open steady to lower this morning but then traders will turn their attention to the latest weather forecasts to check for further harvest delays.
10-8-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up 1 1/2 cents on Wednesday as wet weather in the forecast will continue to delay harvest. Forecasts for frost this weekend and into early next week will keep the traders guessing as to how much damage may be inflicted on the crop because of this. Some in the trade feel that up to 100 million bushels of corn could be adversely affected by the frost/freeze. Cold temperatures are expected to go as far south as Kansas and northern Missouri and also impact central Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. A weaker dollar and stronger outside markets are also helping to support prices. The soybean market closed 2 cents higher on Wednesday as traders position themslves ahead of Friday's USDA reports. The average trader guess for soybean production is at 3.291 billion bushels. A number above this would be bearish but soon after the report, traders will focus their attention on the weather. Any further delays in harvesting the soybean crop could rally prices higher. A frost or freeze is not expected to have a big impact on the soybean crop as many beans are close to maturity. In the overnight trade corn closed up 4 1/2 cents, beans were 4 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed up 6 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning and trade in positive territory for most of the day.
10-7-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - STEADY
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 17 cents higher on Tuesday as a little more weather premium was added back into prices. Cold temperatures for the weekend as far south as Northern Missouri and central Illinois could drop temperatures to freezing levels. This along with a weaker dollar and stronger outside markets was enough to get the trade excited yesterday. USDA will release their latest crop production numbers on Friday. Some in the trade feel that USDA will lower corn acreage by as much as a half million acres due to FSA's updated acreage numbers. The soybean market closed 25 cents higher on Tuesday as funds bought nearly 7000 contracts of soybeans on frost talk and higher outside markets. USDA will release their crop production numbers on Friday. The average trade guess for soybean production is 3.291 billion bushels vs September's USDA number of 3.245. That puts the national soybean yield at 42.7 BPA. FSA's latest acreage number will be taken into consideration on this report and some think that as many as 500,000 more acres may be added to the soybean crop. In the overnight trade corn closed up 2 1/2 cents, beans were down a penny and wheat closed up 2 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning and then react to the latest weather forecasts.
10-6-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 12 TO 14 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 8 cents higher on Monday as frost talk surfaced once again. Talk of frost and even a hard freeze are possible this weekend across parts of the Midwest. Freezes could occur across Northern Iowa, Indiana, Ohio and as far south as Central Illinois on Sunday morning. Maturity of the corn crop is still only at 57%. A hard frost now would still leave 43% of the crop vulnerable to quality problems. On Monday afternoon's crop progress report, only 10% of the nations corn crop has been harvested compared to the 5 year average of 25%. The soybean market closed unchanged on Monday as some profit taking was noted during the trading session. Wet weather is keeping harvest progress at bay in many areas. White mold is also a problem in some locations. Monday's crop report showed that 15% of the nations soybean crop has now been harvested. The 5 year average would put harvest progress at 36% complete. Harvest progress continues to lag well behind the normal pace. Illinois is only at 6% complete. In the overnight trade corn closed up 10 cents, beans closed up 13 cents and wheat closed 9 1/2 cents higher. Today look for the markets to open higher and trade higher most of the day as a wet and cool forecast will continue to move prices higher.
10-5-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 7 cents on Friday after Informa released their crop production numbers. Informa put the corn crop at 13.27 billion bushels with a national yield of 164.7 BPA. USDA's last estimate was at 12.95 billion bushels with a yield of 161.9. On October 9th USDA will release their latest numbers with most in the trade looking for an increase in yield of 2 to 3 bushels per acre. Weather forecasts continue to call for cooler than normal temperatures this week with a chance for frost late into the weekend and into early next week. The soybean market closed 33 cents lower on Friday as funds sold nearly 6000 contracts of soybeans. Informa released their soybean estimates on Friday with a bean crop projected at 3.383 billion bushels with a yield estimated at 44 BPA. This was 138 million bushels higher than USDA's last estimate. South America has also increased their soybean production numbers coming out of Brazil and Argentina. Brazil's crop is estimated at just over 63MMT which is up from 57MMT from last year. Argentina's crop is estimated to be almost double the size of last year's crop because of the drought they experienced the previous year. In the overnight trade corn closed down 1 1/2 cents, beans were down 4 cents and wheat closed a penny higher. Look for the markets to open lower but expect to see trade on both sides of the close today.
10-2-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 3 cents on Thursday as traders feel that the early yield reports could boost production numbers . FC Stone released their estimates putting corn production at 13.064 billion bushels. This is up 110 million bushels from USDA's last estimate of 12.954 billion bushels. Informa is due to release their numbers this morning. The trade is also looking for these numbers to be higher than their last report. Some in the trade now feel that USDA could raise their next production estimate by as much as 5 bushels per acre. The soybean market closed 9 cents lower on Thursday after rallying early in the session. Most areas across the Midwest averted the frost scare this past week with only some patchy frost around mostly confined to areas in Wisconsin and Michigan. Bean harvest is now delayed in the Midwest and will be for the rest of this week and into early next week. Informa will be out with their production numbers today and are expected to come in with higher numbers. Traders are thinking that USDA will raise yields 2 to 5 BPA on beans on their next report. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 cents, beans were 8 cents lower and wheat closed down 5 cents. Look for the markets to trade lower today as positive news is hard to come by and the outside markets are all lower today.
9-28-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 10 TO 12 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 2 1/2 cents on Friday after trading on both sides of the previous close. Traders continue to try to get a handle on the crop size. Early yield reports seem to be very good but traders realize that the crop will be late and yields from the late plantings have yet to be determined. Corn prices did have a relatively good week with December futures trading 16 cents higher for the week. Weather forecasts call for a couple of cool nights on Tuesday and Wednesday followed by a brief warmup in temperatures and then another cool shot of weather near the 10th of October. The soybean market closed 6 1/2 cents higher on Friday as the funds came into the marketplace to buy soybeans before the market closed on Friday. Bean harvest in the Delta area has been stopped for nearly two weeks due to heavy rains there. Early harvest results in other areas indicate some very good yields. Traders are considering ideas that USDA may raise yield estimates on their October reports. USDA will update their grain stock numbers on September 30th. In the overnight trade corn closed down a penny, beans were 11 cents lower and wheat closed up 3 cents. Look for the markets to open lower in line with the overnight settlements.
9-25-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up 6 cents on Thursday despite the fact that crude oil was trading at $3 per barrel lower. A weather forecast released yesterday showed that above normal precipitation was predicted for the first 10 days of October. It showed significant rains across the Midwest with some totals as high as 3 to 4 inches. For a crop that is already late, this made the trade a little nervous. Also some reports of crop disease and low test weights on early harvested corn are making the trade wonder if the yields will actually be that good this fall. Some analysts are projecting yields well above USDA's 162 BPA while others feel that the late development of the crop won't support that kind of yield. The soybean market closed down a penny yesterday in a day of relatively quiet trading. Fund buying was subdued yesterday as the trade awaits the new harvest season. Slow export business and projections of good yields left the funds on the sidelines. Some concern was felt in the trade yesterday as talk surfaced that plentiful rains next week could limit harvest activity and slow much needed stocks into the pipeline. In the overnight trade corn closed down a penny, beans were down 3 cents and wheat closed 1 cent lower. Look for the markets to trade on both sides of the close today with the markets favored to end the day on a slightly higher note.
9-24-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents higher yesterday after being up nearly a dime on renewed frost concerns. The GFS weather model put colder temperatures back into the forecast for next week. Weather forecasts were calling for temperatures to drop to near 32 degrees early next week. Many other weather models disagreed with this forecast and were not looking for any significant frost until early October. A frost now could really influence final yield prospects and the trade gets a little nervous each time a frost threat occurs. The soybean market closed 1 1/2 cents higher on Wednesday after opening sharply lower. Frost scares along with new export sales helped to rally prices during the session. The trade continues to try to determine the crop size. Early yield reports continue to come in above expectations. However, will these be the better yield results as some of the later beans are showing signs of white mold and sudden death syndrome in places. Also the trade has to consider whether or not the crop will reach maturity without a frost to reduce yield potential. I guess time will tell. In the overnight trade corn closed down 4 1/2 cents, beans were 7 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down a penny. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
9-23-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 2 cents on Monday as weather forecasts remained frost free going into early October. Rains are expected to move into the corn belt and continue in the Delta area where it has been wet for most of the past week. On Monday's crop progress report, 80% of the corn crop is now dented and 21% of the crop has reached maturity. This is still well behind the normal pace but weather conditions should allow much more of the crop to reach full maturity in the next 10 days. The soybean market closed 27 1/2 cents lower on Monday as early yield reports on beans continue to be very good especially in the southern states. Some areas are reporting yields 20 BPA above last year. This is causing traders to believe that higher production totals are quite likely. Soybean exports were very disappointing coming in at only 205,000 bushels. This was 10 million bushels lower than last week's numbers. With the outside markets all lower and the dollar stronger yesterday, soybean prices fell victum to the downward pressure. In the ovenight trade corn closed up 3 1/2 cents, beans were up 7 1/2 cents and wheat closed 6 1/2 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
9-21-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 11 cents lower on Friday as the latest weather forecasts took out any hint of a frost before October 1st for the major crop areas. Without a significant frost or freeze it looks like grain prices will continually work lower going into harvest. Early yield reports on corn continue to come in very good. It appears that the cool wet summer was very beneficial to yields especially in the southern states. Harvest activity will begin to pick up in the Midwest in the next couple of weeks. The soybean market closed 12 cents lower on Friday as lower outside markets and a stronger dollar continued to drive prices lower. Rains in the Delta area continue to delay harvest activity. Parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia received between 1 1/2 to 3 inches of rain this past week. Some damage may occur to crops in that area if rains persist. Early soybean yield reports are coming in at average to slightly above average levels. There have been some white mold and sudden death syndrome noted in the soybean fields in the northern areas. In the overnight trade corn closed down 4 cents, beans were 8 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 2 1/2 cents. Look for the markets to start out lower and probably stay lower all session on a lack of positive news.
9-18-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - STEADY TO 3 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents lower on Thursday as the latest forecasts took out the chances of a frost for next week. Even the two week forecasts show no signs of a killing frost. Much of the weather premium that was added to the markets on Tuesday has now been taken back out. Corn export sales yesterday came out higher than expected at 38 million bushels. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan were the main buyers this week. Very little corn harvest has taken place across the Midwest but what has been done is coming in better than expected. The soybean market closed 2 1/2 cents higher on Thursday as commercial buying helped to support soybean prices yesterday. Weather forecasts have now taken out the chances of frost through September which is good for the continued maturation of the crop. If the crop is allowed to reach full maturity without a frost then traders will be looking for a larger number on the next crop production report. China has continued to buy beans from the United States and is helping to keep soybean sales on a record setting pace. The US has the majority of the worlds supply of soybeans, so it looks like China will continue to come to the US in the coming months for their soybean needs. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 cents, beans were 5 cents lower and wheat closed unchanged. Look for the markets to open lower in line with the overnight settlements.
9-17-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 10 cents on Wednesday as traders took profits from Tuesday's big runnup in prices. Weather forecasts backed off on the previous frost scares and caused some of the weather premium to be taken out. Funds sold nearly 8000 contracts of corn during the session yesterday. Higher crude oil prices and a weaker dollar did help to keep the losses under control. Short term weather remains favorable for crop development but traders will continue to monitor longer range forecasts for a return to colder temperatures for later next week. The soybean market closed 9 1/2 cents lower on Wednesday after trading as much as 30 cents down during the session. Commercial buying interest helped to aid in the price recovery yesterday. Current longer range weather forecasts are still calling for cold temperatures for late next week but not as cold as originally thought. The frost is now expected to be more regional in nature mostly affecting areas confined mainly to the northern parts of Wisconsin and Michigan. Early soybean harvest is getting started in the Midwest with yield reports coming in mostly better than expected. In the overnight trade corn closed down 5 cents, beans were 9 cents lower and wheat closed down 3 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning and continue to struggle with current forecasts taking out much of the frost threat.
9-16-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 12 TO 14 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 29 cents higher on Tuesday as frost scares surfaced around the marketplace. Both the European and GFS weather models are calling for a powerful cold front to possibly go as far south as Illinois and Miissouri for the end of next week. Markets were sharply higher yesterday because of this. The trade realizes that if a frost were to occur this far south that as much as 660 million bushels of corn production would be vulnerable to damage or even total loss. If temperatures were to drop as low as 28 degrees, losses could be well over 1 billion bushels. The trade will be watching this closely over the coming days. The soybean market closed 51 cents higher yesterday due to short covering on the frost scare. Funds bought over 10,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday as traders tried to cover their short positions. The market added back some weather premium as traders realize that the immaturity of the crop could be extremely vulnerable to damage by a frost-freeze. The Delta harvest has been stopped now due to heavy rains that look to continue for that area for much of the week. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 cents, beans were 12 cents lower and wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents. Look for more fund buying today as traders watch the latest weather forecasts for more talk about frost-freezes.
9-15-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents lower on Monday in a day of quiet trading. Yesterday morning USDA announced the sale of 419,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico. Export inspections released on Monday of 40.5 million bushels were strong for this time of year. Crop conditions remained unchanged at 69% good to excellent with only 12% of the corn crop rated mature. Weather for the short term calls for above normal temperatures but longer range forecasts look for a cooler pattern to develop with some calling for a possible frost for northern Iowa, northern Illinois and northern Indiana on the 26th and 27th. The trade will be closely watching these forecasts. The soybean market closed 6 cents higher on Monday on light commercial buying. It was announced yesterday morning that both China and South Korea purchased some soybeans from the US. Crop conditions remained unchanged on Monday with 68% of the soybean crop still rated good to excellent. Soybean harvesting in the Delta area will be put on hold this week as rains move across that area. Early soybean yields are ranging from somewhat disappointing in some areas to near record highs in others. In the overnight trade corn closed 5 cents higher, beans were up 3 cents and wheat closed 3 cents higher. Today look for another day of light trade as the markets continue to trade on both sides of the close.
9-14-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS : 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT : 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents higher on Friday after the USDA Crop Production reports. Corn production was estimated to come in at 12.954 billion bushels which was up almost 200 million bushels fron last months estimates. National yields are expected to average 161.9 BPA, which is up 2.4 bushels from the August estimate and 8 BPA above last year. If these numbers are acheived, it will be the highest yield on record with production the second largest ever. The latest weather forecast shows no frost through this week, however, the GFS weather model shows an agressive cold front pushing into the Midwest next week. This will be closely monitored by the trade. The soybean market closed 23 1/2 cents lower on Friday following the crop report. Soybean production was forecast at a record high of 3.25 billion bushels which was up from last months estimate of 3.199. If realized that would be 10% higher than last year's production totals. Soybean yields are expected to average 42.3 BPA up from last months estimate of 41.7. Both Alabama and Maryland showed the biggest increase in yields over last month at 5 to 6 BPA. In the ovenight trade corn closed down 4 cents, beans were 8 cents lower and wheat closed down 8 cents. Markets were lower this morning due to a trade dispute between the US and China over a new tariff on tires. President Obama signed legislation on Friday to impose a new duty of 35% on Chinese tire imports. Look for the markets to start off lower this morning and then trade on both sides of the close.
9-11-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 5 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 3 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 1/2 cents higher on Thursday as the traders prepared for the USDA reports to be released this morning. Weather forcasts have turned a little cooler for September 23rd to the 25th and frosts are possible as far down as Northern Iowa according to the GFS weather model. Since this is still two weeks away, the trade is not placing a lot of faith in this yet. USDA released their crop production numbers this morning coming out with a 12.995 billion bushel corn crop. Average trade guesses were at 12.901. Corn yield estimates came in at 161.9 BPA compared with last months estimate of 159.5. Only minor increases in ending stocks were reported this morning. The soybean market closed 2 cents lower on Thursday as yield reports from the Delta and southern states continue to come in at better than expected levels. USDA released crop production numbers this morning at 3.245 billion bushels on soybeans. This was in line with the average trade guesses at 3.249. This put soybean yields at 42.3 BPA compared with previous estimates of 41.7. If realized this would be the third highest yield on record for soybeans. USDA raised ending stocks for 2009/10 by 10 million bushels to 220 million bushels. In the overnight trade, corn closed nearly unchanged, beans closed up 2 1/2 cents and wheat closed 3 cents higher. Look for the markets to open a little higher following this morning's crop reports.
9-10-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 cents higher on Wednesday as traders positioned themselves ahead of Friday's USDA reports. Traders are looking for a corn production number of 12.932 billion bushels. In August, USDA estimated the corn crop at 12.761 billion bushels. Early yield reports out of the Southern states have been a little better than expected. Trade estimates for the corn yields range from 158.7 to 164.1 with the average coming in at 161.5 BPA. USDA's August estimate was at 159.5. The soybean market closed 8 cents lower on Wednesday as weather models continue to call for good conditions through the end of September. Early bean yields from the south continue to come in at better than expected levels. Disease problems are starting to show up in some of the Northern states including Illinois and Iowa. Sudden death syndrome and white mold are becoming much more prevalent in many of the bean fields. Trade estimates for the 2009 soybean yields range from 41.5 to 43.1 BPA with an average of 42.4. USDA's August estimate was at 41.7. Soybean carryout is expected to come in around 226 million bushels for the 2010 / 11. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were down 1 1/2 cents and wheat closed 1/2 cent higher. Look for the markets to trade on both sides of the close as traders even up positions prior to Friday's reports.
9-09-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed up a penny on Tuesday after the long holiday weekend as the strong outside markets provided support for grain prices. Crude oil rallied over $3.00 per barrel yesterday on news from analysts that crude oil demand will rebound next year. A weaker US dollar also helped to uplift commodity markets. The dollar index fell to new lows yesterday as China voiced concerns over current US policies which could lead to inflationary problems in the future. Yield checks were done on corn fields in the Bloomington, Il. area and reported yields to be about 5% lower than last year. It was noted that frost free weather will be needed until the first of October for the crop to reach maturity. The soybean market closed 14 1/2 cents higher yesterday on better Chinese soybean import prospects, a weaker dollar and higher outside markets. Some analysts are projecting a big increase in Chinese imports as its livestock industry rebounds in the coming year. There is also talk of a decrease in the North China soybean crop due to drought. Some disease problems are showing up in the soybean fields across the Midwest. Sudden death syndrome and white mold are showing up in many bean fields. Crop condition ratings, however, still remain high at 68% good to excellent compared to only 57% last year. In the overnight trade corn closed 2 cents lower, beans were down 8 1/2 cents and wheat closed 6 cents lower. Look for the markets to start off lower and then trade on both sides of the close.
9-08-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 12 TO 15 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 9 1/2 cents lower on Friday as good yield reports continued to come out of the southern states. Areas that were only yielding around 130 BPA last year are reporting yields this year of between 175 to 180. On Friday, USDA will release their crop production numbers. Many estimates have placed the size of the corn crop at slightly over 13 billion bushels. USDA's August estimate was at 12.76 billion bushels. Support from outside markets this morning could keep grain prices on the positive side today. The soybean market closed nearly 20 cents lower on Friday as traders prepared for the long holiday weekend. USDA will be out Friday with their soybean production numbers and supply-demand estimates. Informa came out last week with their estimates putting the soybean crop at 3.372 billion bushels with a yield estimated at 44.1 BPA. These estimates are relying on the fact that the crop will be able to reach maturation without an early frost. Latest forecasts remain favorable for late season crop development. In the overnight trade corn closed unchanged, beans were up 13 cents and wheat closed nearly unchanged. Today look for the grain markets to draw support from the higher outside markets.
9-4-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 2 cents on Thursday after Informa released their crop estimates calling for record corn production. They estimated this year's corn crop would yield 162.7 BPA with the possibility of yields as high as 168. Informa estimated final acreage would be down by 800,000 acres. Prices,however did find support late in the session yesterday from a few forecasts calling for a return to much colder temperatures around the middle of September. Traders are still contemplating what effects an early frost would have on a crop that is so late to mature. The soybean market closed down 9 1/2 cents on Thursday as more negative news infiltrated the marketplace. Informa estimated new crop soybean yields at 43.1 BPA which was well above their August estimate of 41.6. Informa, however does have a track record of coming in with higher final yields than USDA. Last year Informa overestimated bean yields by 1.4 BPA over USDA. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 cents, beans closed unchanged and wheat was down a penny. Look for the markets this morning to open in line with the overnight settlements and the trade on both sides of the close. The long holiday weekend and neutral outside markets may limit new buying interest today.
9-03-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 8 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed unchanged yesterday as traders try to get a handle on this year's crop size. Informa will release their crop estimates this morning. F C Stone released their numbers on corn coming in at 162.7 BPA up from 160 last month and higher than USDA's August figure of 159.5. Early corn yields from crops being harvested in southern states continue to come in better than expected. However, the trade will still be concerned this year that over 30% of the corn crop will not be mature by October 1st. This may keep traders considering possible frost risk into October. The soybean market closed 4 1/2 cents lower on Wednesday as weather forecasts continued to call for normal temperatures through the middle of the month. Informa will release their crop production numbers this morning. F C Stone estimated soybean yields at 42.5 BPA up slightly fom last month's estimate and higher than USDA's August estimate of 41.7. However, slow crop development will leave 18% of the soybean crop not mature by October 1st leaving nearly 1/5th of the crop vulnerable to frost damage. In the overnight trade corn closed up 1/2 cent, beans were 9 cents higher and wheat closed up 2 1/2 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning and then react to Informa's numbers after their release.
9-2-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 10 1/2 cents lower on Tuesday as weather forecasts shrugged off any frost scares over the next 10 to 15 days. Better than expected yield reports coming out of Kentucky also helped to drive corn prices lower yesterday. Some yield reports of 200 BPA were reported in Kentucky where normal yields would be near 150. F C Stone came out with their crop estimates yesterday putting the corn crop at 13.02 billion bushels with an average yield of 162.7 BPA. The soybean market lost 24 cents yesterday as the prices came under pressure from good weather forecasts and reduced demand. Lower outside markets also added to the negative pressure on the soybean market on Tuesday. Soybean harvest is now underway in the Delta with many other states showing signs of soybeans turning yellow. Some of these beans will be ready to harvest in late September. This will soon erode the big premium between old and new crop soybean prices. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 cents, beans were 7 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 2 cents. There is nothing new overnight for the markets to trade on , so expect a two sided trade today. The markets will tend to follow the action in the soybean market today. If these prices fail, than the other commodities will also struggle.
8-24-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 8 cents higher on Monday as the trade added a little weather premium back into the markets. Traders remain concerned about the cool temperatures and the risk from an early frost this year. Slow development of the crop in many states has put much of the country at risk. Several states will need an even later than normal frost date to reach normal maturity. Pro Farmer has estimated this years corn crop to acheive a national yield of 160 bpa. That is higher than USDA's current projection of 159.5. The soybean market closed 34 1/2 cents higher on Monday as the Pro Farmer bean yield estmate on Friday provoked buying of soybeans on Monday. Pro Farmer estimated national soybean yields at 41 bpa which was lower than USDA's August estimate of 41.7. The trade now realizes that any further reduction in yields could seriously reduce carryout numbers for next year. Weather forecasts calling for an extended period of cool weather across the Midwest added some premium back to the markets on Monday. In the overnight trade corn closed down a penny, beans were down 1 1/2 cents and wheat closed 1/2 cent lower. This morning look for the markets to trade lower in line with the overnight settlements.
8-21-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT LOWER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 1/2 cents higher on Wednesday as crude oil prices were sharply higher. The crude oil inventory stocks report released yesterday was much more bullish than the market had anticipated moving prices up over $3.00 per barrel. Some volatility was seen in the market yesterday as the CFTC changed the rules on speculative limits held by two funds holding corn, beans and wheat contracts. This drove prices lower. Later in the session one of the large funds involved said that they had not exceeded the limits and would not be selling contracts. This rallied prices back higher. The Pro Farmer Tour moved into Illinois yesterday and found corn yields to be down 2 to 8 bushels per acre from last year. The soybean market closed a penny lower yesterday in a day of two sided trade. A lot of volatility was seen in yesterday's market as the news from CFTC played havoc with the markets. Pro Farmer surveyed Illinois bean fields yesterday and reported pod counts down as much as 34% in some places and 19% higher than year ago levels in other places. USDA is forecasting Illinois soybean yields to be down by 7% from last year. High pod counts were found in Iowa with yields estimated to come in around 52 BPA up from 46 last year. In the overnight trade corn closed unchanged, beans were up 3 cents and wheat closed nearly unchanged. Look for a two sided trade today with markets leaning toward the positive side.
8-19-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 13 TO 15 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed nearly unchanged on Tuesday as traders try to get a handle on yield prospects for fall harvest. The Pro Farmers CropTour will be releasing their yield results on Friday, August 21st. Crop development still remains a concern as North Dakota's corn crop is reported to be way behind with only 3% in the dough stage compared to 41% on average. South Dakota, Illinois, and Iowa are also well behind normal. The corn crop will need a very late frost this year to reach normal maturity. Good yields, however , can still be achieved under the right conditions. Some analysts believe that December futures could trade below $3.00 well into harvest this year. The soybean market closed 5 cents higher on Tuesday as the market recouped some of its losses from Monday. The market was still hesitant to rally due to China's announcement that they intend to subsidize the crushers in NE China to stimulate soybeans to move out of their reserve program. On the positive side yesterday, China was reported to have purchased 175,000 metric tonnes of soybeans for the coming year. In the overnight trade, corn closed down 2 1/2 cents, beans were 14 cents lower and wheat closed down a penny. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
8-18-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 10 TO 12 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 3 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 cents lower on Monday on beneficial rains over a large part of the growing area. Lower outside markets also pressured grain prices lower yesterday. The Pro Farmer crop tour got underway with good yield results coming out of Ohio and South Dakota. Ohio yield estimates came in at 24% better than last years estimates and South Dakota yields are also projected to be above average. Late crop developement was noted in the Dakota's which could give them some problems even with a normal frost date this year. Crop condition ratings for corn remained unchanged for the week at 68% good to excellent. The soybean market closed 27 cents lower on Monday as some poor economic news hurt the markets. US retail sales fell short of analysts expectations and resulted in a much lower equities market and plumetting stock market yesterday. Decent rains across the Midwest and Delta region along with cooler temperatures also drove the markets lower. Soybean conditions remained unchanged at 66% good to excellent which was above the 62% rating for this time last year. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 cents, beans were down 11 cents and wheat closed 3 cents lower. Today look for the markets to trade on both sides of the close with the markets expected to trade on the plus side for a good part of the day.
08-17-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 7 TO 9 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 23 TO 25 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 10 TO 12 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 6 cents on Friday as forecasts improved rain chances over a good portion of the grain belt improving crop prospects. Lower outside markets also pressured prices. USDA is also forecasting lower animal numbers which are expecting to be down by 2.3% from last year. The pro farmer crop tour begins this week and traders are expecting to see some big yiels numbers coming out of this. This could keep prices low going into the fall harvestseason. Soybean futures closed 25 cents lower on Friday and big basis losses were also noted as old crop - new crop spreads narrowed significantly. Forecasts for significant rains this week over the corn belt weighed heavily on prices on Friday. The prospects of significant improvement in final soybean yields was definetly on traders minds. Soybean crush numbers surprised traders by coming out 9% lower than last month. This also had a negative impact on Friday's prices. In the overnight trade corn closed down 5 cents, beans were 40 cents lower and wheat closed unchanged. Look for the markets to open lower this morning on favorable crop weather prospects and lower outside markets.
8-14-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 11 TO 13 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 6 cents lower on Thursday as fund selling continued following the USDA supply-demand report. A weaker dollar and stronger crude oil prices were not enough to sustain price strength into the close of the market yesterday. Weather forecasters are calling for slightly above normal temperatures and normal precipitation over the coming week. The only real threat from weather would now appear to be with the possibility of an early frost. The trade suspects some type of frost damage could occur to a crop planted this late even with an average frost date this year. The soybean market closed 28 cents lower on Thursday after starting out the session in higher territory. Funds soon began seling and sold nearly 6000 bean contracts by the end of the session, driving prices much lower. Export sales came out at a solid 37.5 million bushels but even that wasn't enough to sustain a higher market. The US now has more than 50 million bushels more of exports on the books than USDA is projecting for our yearly sales. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 cents, beans were down 16 cents and wheat closed 3 cents lower. Today look for the markets to open lower and trade lower for most of the session.
8-06-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 11 cents higher on Thursday on signs that the US economy is starting to improve. GDP contracted at an only 1% annual rate after the 6.4% rate from the previous three months. This showed a marked improvement by the fact that the US economy shrank at a much lower rate in the second quarter and served as a sign that the deep recession is starting to wind down. The dry weather in Argentina continues and may pull acres away from corn and into soybeans. Some dry areas are also starting to show up in the Midwest with Iowa down 1.5 inches from normal precipitation in the month of July. The soybean market closed up 70 cents on the cash and 55 cents higher on new crop as china continues to buy soybeans from the US. They purchased 1.89 MMT of new crop beans and also some old crop beans from us yesterday. US beans continue to be cheaper than those originating out of Brazil and has enhaned our exports. Signs that the Chinese economy is also improving helped to rally soybean prices yesterday. In the overnight trade, corn closed up 3 cents, beans were a penny lower on old crop and 3 cents higher on new crop and wheat closed up 4 cents. Look for the markets to open in line with the overnight settlements.
7-30-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 14 TO 16 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed unchanged on Thursday despite the fact that crude oil was down nearly 4 dollars per barrel. Oil prices were sharply lower yesterday as it was revealed that crude oil stocks were the highest they have been in the past six months. Also fear over regulation of speculation in crude oil futures weakened prices yesterday. In other news, Argentina corn acres could be down by as much as 25% fom last year due to dryness and current government policies discouraging plantings. The soybean market closed 3 cents higher on Thursday as we saw a day of choppy trading. A stronger US dollar and lower crude oil prices kept a lid on soybean prices yesterday. On the positive side, US soybeans still remain cheaper than Brazilian beans which will keep US exports strong during August and September. This will keep US old crop stocks at very tight levels until the new crop can be harvested, which will be later than normal this year. On August 12th, USDA will update the supply-demand numbers which some feel will drop national soybean yields well below the July estimates of 42.6 BPA. In the overnight trade corn closed 5 cents higher, beans were up 25 cents on old crop and 15 cents on new crop and wheat closed 6 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
7-29-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 2 cents on Tuesday in another round of light liquidation. Lack of any new positive news kept the markets on the defensive. The latest weather forecasts have some rain across most crop areas over the next week with below normal temperatures predicted. Beyond that, the extended forecasts are calling for a warmer and drier trend. US corn ratings dropped a point this week to 70% good to excellent but still remain at record high levels. The soybean market closed 33 cents higher on Tuesday on talks that India might be forced to halt exports on next year's soybean crop production. There was also rumors yesterday that China was in the market for 1 to 2 cargoes of US beans for shipment this fall. China's second attempt to sell beans from their state reserves failed again as no bids were made at the auction yesterday. The beans are being offered for sale at $30 per ton above the going rate. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were down 13 cents and wheat closed unchanged. Look for the markets to start off steady to lower with choppy trade expected today.
7-27-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 10 cents on Friday as traders watched the market give back half of Thursday's gain. Weather conditions continue to benefit the pollination of the corn crop. The crop condition report this afternoon is expected to show a rating of 71% good to excellent which is much higher than year ago levels. South Korea bought some corn over the weekend and traders are looking for export inspections to come out around 38 million bushels later this morning. The soybean market closed down 2 1/2 cents on Friday in a day of choppy trade. The market continues in a liquidation phase. The United States and China will engage in two days of high level talks about trade and the US budget deficit. It was reported that China was believed to have taken two cargoes of US beans over the weekend. Export inspections are expected to fall between 10 to 15 million bushels on this morning's report. Crop conditions to be released this afternoon are expected to remain at 67% good to excellent. In the overnight trade corn and beans both closed down a penny and wheat closed unchanged. Look for the markets to open lower this morning and then trade on both sides of the close.
7-24-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 1 CENT HIGHER
BEANS - 1 TO 3 CENT LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 19 cents higher on Thursday on USDA"s announcement that they planned to collect updated data on corn and sorghum planted acres due to the adverse weather conditions this spring. Some believe that USDA will lower corn planted acres by 500,000 to up to 1.5 million acres. The states being reviewed include Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and North Dakota. The idea is to have the information gathered and dispersed for the August 12th crop report. The soybean market closed 5 cents higher for old crop and 24 cents higher for new crop. The soybean market followed corn higher on Thursday. The census crush report came out better than expected at 140.2 million bushels. The trade was only looking for a figuire of 138. Soybean exports were also higher than expected on Thursday's report with total US soybean sales up 12.4% from year ago totals. The trade is still thinking that the carryout of this year's soybean crop could be as low as 75 million bushels. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were up 4 cents and wheat closed nearly unchanged. Look for a two sided trade today with prices finding support on any setbacks.
7-23-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 1/2 cents lower on Wednesday as traders have continued to liquidate long corn positions. Traders are still concerned that the CFTC will put limits on speculation by funds in the commodities markets. Over the past couple of days decent rains have fallen across Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan. In many cases, this has come just in time for pollination. Several of the Western Corn Belt states were in dire need of rain and it came just in time to really benefit the crop. Many traders are starting to think that national corn yields this year will top 160 BPA. The soybean market closed 4 cents higher yesterday as demand for soybeans remains strong. China took a record 4.7 MMT of soybeans in the month of June and sales to China for July continue to be very good. The crush report is due out this morning with the soybean crush estimated to came in at 138.5. The trade continues to toss around varying numbers on soybean yields for this years crop. Some analysts believe that we will see yields around 44 BPA with cooler temperatures while others believe late plantings will reduce yields and come in around 41 BPA this year. USDA will release their next estimates on August 12th. In the ovenight trade corn closed down 8 1/2 cents, beans were 7 1/2 cents higher and wheat closed 4 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning as USDA will begin to collect updated data on corn and sorghum planted acres. Some feel that USDA could lower corn planted acreage between 500,000 to 1.5 million acres.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 7 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed a penny higher yesterday in a rather non-eventful trading day. Corn exports came in about as expected at 36.8 million bushels. The crop tour over the weekend found nearly record numbers of second ears on the corn crops in Iowa and Nebraska. The crop condition report released yesterday afternoon showed that 71% of the crop is in good to excellent condition compared to only 65% at this time last year. The trade was looking for a slightly lower number. There have been some 1 inch rains in the Western Corn Belt since yesterday and these are expected to move across the Midwest late today and into tomorrow. The soybean market closed 23 cents higher on Monday as record tight carryout and strong exports and crush continue to run cash prices higher. South America is reporting that they are nearly out of the market for old beans. China continues to buy both old and new beans from the U.S. Bean crop conditions came out at 67% good to excellent yesterday afternoon which was up 1 % from the previous week. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 1/2 cents , beans were down 5 cents and wheat closed down 4 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
7-20-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 9 TO 12 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 5 1/2 cents higher on Friday as cool temperatures this past week have slowed down the maturity of the crop. Below average temperatures are expected to continue over the next week leading some to question the possibility of an early frost this year. There is not much correlation between cool summers and early frosts, but the thought does enter into the minds of traders and some risk premium may be added into the markets this year just in case. The soybean market closed 33 1/2 cents higher on Friday as the soybean market had become oversold and was due for a rally. The soybean market dropped nearly a dollar per bushel in one weeks time. Traders will be anxiously awaiting this afternoon's crop progress report. Condition ratings are expected to show a slight decline in ratings. Cool summer temperatures and late plantings are slowing down the maturity of the crops. The big question remains as to how this will affect the final soybean yields. In the overnight trade corn closed up a penny, beans were 14 cents higher and wheat closed up 6 cents. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
7-17-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 9 TO 12 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 13 cents on Thursday as the trade continues to believe that the cooler temperatures will be good for corn that is pollinating. Not much corn in Illinois is at this stage yet, but many places in Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota have crops mature enough to take advantage of this kind of weather for pollination. The trade is starting to think that 160 BPA national yields might be achievable this year. If so, that could bring carryout totals on next years crop to over 2 billion bushels. Corn prices have dropped over $1.00 per bushel since June 1st. The soybean market closed 44 cents lower on Thursday in another day of heavy fund liquidation. Talk of the Chinese selling both corn and beans from their reserves, weghed heavily on the markets. Soybean prices have dropped over a dollar per bushel in the past couple of weeks. Soybean export sales remain very good coming out at 4.9 million bushels this week which brings total sales for this year above USDA projections of 1.26 billion bushels. In the overnight trade corn closed up 2 cents, beans were up 10 cents and wheat closed 7 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
7-16-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 14 TO 17 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 9 cents on Thursday as mild weather across the heart of the cornbelt continiues to drive prices lower. The trade feels that below normal temperatures during the summer leads to above normal corn yields. Tyson announced yesterday that they will be reducing their swine herd by 28% due to poor profit margins. This seems to be a growing trend in the livestock industry. This will reduce the amount of corn needed for livestock feed in the near future. The soybean market closed 14 cents lower after a strong opening. USDA announced a sale of 113,000 metric tons of soybeans to China which was a surprise to the trade. This rallied the market in the early morning session. Later in the morning talk had surfaced that China would release some of their soybean reserves for sale in August. This caused the market to collapse. This choppiness in the bean market is likely to continue into fall as the trade tries to sort out a tight old crop supplies situation with the possiblity of good new crop prospects. In the overnight trade corn closed down 6 cents, beans were 25 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 5 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
7-15-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 9 TO 11 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 6 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 7 cents higher on Tuesday as the trade has now seen a couple of days of higher prices. Commercial buying helped to support prices yesterday as the dollar was weaker and outside markets were stronger. The corn crop continues to lag behind the 5 year average pace as cool weather continues to dominate the upper Midwest weather pattern. Pollination will be several weeks behind normal which means that an early frost could be devastating . A big reduction in sunspot activity lowering summer temperatures leaves the corn crop at risk. The soybean market closed 16 cents higher on Tuesday as a weaker US Dollar and strong export business helped to support prices. Export sales of 130,000 metric tons of soybeans for the 2009-2010 marketing year and 42,000 metric tons of soybean oil were reported on Tuesday. June soybean crush figuires came out at 133.1 million bushels which was lower than the average estimate of 135.9. In the overnight trade corn closed 1 1/2 cents higher, beans were up 9 1/2 cents and wheat closed 6 3/4 cents higher. This morning look for the markets to open higher and spend the majority of the session on the plus side.
7-14-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - STEADY
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 3 1/2 cents higher on Monday as the market recovered from its early losses. Weekly export inspections came out higher than expected at 38.8 million bushels. USDA left crop condition scores unchanged yesterday at 71% good to excellent which is still 7 points higher than last year at this time. The corn crop is 16% silked which compares to 12% last year and the 5 year average of 32%. Weather conditions look mostly favorable over the next 10 days for crop deveolpment. The soybean market closed 26 cents lower on Monday as lower outside markets helped to pressure prices. Funds continued to liquidate positions yesterday as the negativism in the marketplace was evident for another day. Soybean exports on Monday came out in line with expectations at 10.9 million bushels. Crop ratings for soybeans were reported at 66% good to excellent which was the same as was reported last week. 24% of the soybean crop was reported to be blooming compared to 43% for the 5 year average. In the overnight trade corn closed 4 cents higher, beans were up 2 cents and wheat closed unchanged. Look for the markets to open slightly higher this morning as the trade tries to determine a market direction.
7-13-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 7 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - STEADY TO 2 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down a penny on Friday after opening sharply lower after the USDA supply-demand report numbers were released. USDA estimated the corn crop at 12.29 billion bushels for the coming year. They increased the 08/09 corn ending stocks to 1.770 billion bushels which was up by 170 million from last months estimate. Next years ending stocks were increased by 460 million bushels to 1.550 billion bushels. Corn yields were left unchanged at 153.4 BPA. The soybean market closed 3 cents lower on Friday as the USDA reports came out neutral to bearish for soybeans. The old crop carryout number came out about as expected at 110 million bushels. New crop carryout came in at 250 million bushels which was 21 million bushels higher than expected. USDA is expecting a 42.6 BPA yield which was unchanged from their last estimates. Weather forecasts look good for crop development in the latest 6 to 10 day outlooks. In the overnight trade corn closed down 4 cents, beans were down 9 cents nad wheat closed unchanged. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
7-10-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 5 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents higher on Wednesday as a weaker US dollar and strong exports helped to keep prices higher all day. Corn export sales came out at a strong 45.9 million bushels. This mornings supply-demand report revealed corn ending stocks at 1.770 billion bushels compared to last months estimate of 1.600 for the crop year 08-09. Ending stocks for 09-10 came out at 1.550 vs the June estimate of 1.090. Old crop stocks increased by 170 million bushels due to reductions in feed and ethanol usage. USDA increased corn production estimates by 2 million bushels from June but kept the yield projections unchanged at 153 BPA. The soybean market closed 32 cents higher yesterday as strong export sales and a fear of a dwindling supply of beans helped to support prices. Export sales of 45.1 million bushels suggest that demand for US beans still remains strong. The supply-demand report released this morning left old crop ending stocks unchanged at 110 million bushels and new crop stocks were increased by 40 million bushels from Junes estimates of 210 million bushels. USDA raised the soybean acreage to the 77.5 million acres forecast in June and left the yield unchanged at 42.6 BPA. This mornings report will be looked on as nuetral to bearish by the trade. In the overnight trade, corn closed up 1/2 cent, beans were 3 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed down 3 cents. Look for the markets to open lower as a result of the USDA reports.
7-9-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - OLD CROP 1 CENT HIGHER, NEW CROP 11 TO 13 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 6 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed unchanged yesterday as traders took to the sidelines to see what the latest direction of the markets would be. Crude oil was sharply lower yesterday reflecting the slow economies throughout the world. Weather remains a non-factor as nearly ideal corn belt weather is forecast through the middle of July. Slightly warmer temperatures would be welcome in the eastern corn belt ,however, to push along pollination which will be delayed by the late planting this year. Friday, USDA will release their supply-demand report. June stocks are now estimated at 1.692 billion bushels vs the 1.60 billion bushels estimated last month. The soybean market closed 38 1/2 cents lower yesterday as traders liquidated more of their long positions. Continued talk of soybean sales cancellations to China also drove the soy markets down sharply yesterday. Weather forecasts continue to be good for soybean development. On Friday's report, the trade is looking for old crop bean carryout to come out at 107 million bushels vs last months estimate of 110. New crop carryout is expected to be 229 vs last months estimate of 210. In the overnight trade, corn closed up 3 cents, beans were a penny higher and wheat closed 6 cents higher. Today look for the markets to open higher and spend most of the session on the plus side.
7-8-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - STEADY TO 2 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 9 cents yesterday in another day of fund liquidation. The trade is becoming increasingly concerned about new regulation over excessive speculation in the commodities markets. The CFTC is talking about placing limits on index funds involvement in the grains which is creating a bearish sentiment. Funds sold nearly 8000 contracts of corn yesterday. On Friday USDA will release their latest supply-demand estimates. Traders are anticipating USDA to raise 09/10 carryout to 1.7 to 1.75 billion bushels. The soybean market closed 65 cents lower yesterday on massive fund selling as several stop losses were touched off triggering limit down moves during the session. Several bearish factors were in the markets yesterday including possible CFTC limits on index funds, talk of Chinese soybean cancellations, and non-threatening weather to push the crops along. On Friday, USDA will be out with a new supply-demand report. USDA is expected to increase soybean exports by 10 million bushels and increase crush by 5 million bushels. They are expected to drop residual usage, however, which could raise carryouts above last month's estimate. In the overnight trade corn closed up 1 cent, beans were down 3 1/2 cents and wheat closed up 1 1/2 cents. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning with more fund liquidation a possibility today.
7-7-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 5 TO 8 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 11 cents lower on Monday as funds continued to liquidate their long positions. Weaker crude oil prices, poor economic news and a stronger dollar all added to the markets selloff. The latest 6 to 10 day weather forecasts continue to call for below normal temperatures and normal to above normal rainfall for the northern corn belt. The southern corn belt continues to be warm and dry. The crop condition report showed a decrease in the good to excellent category by 1%. The trade was looking for an increase of 1%. The soybean market closed 35 cents lower on Monday as the outside markets fell sharply due to a poor jobs performance report. Funds sold nearly 5000 contracts of soybeans on the day. The USDA crop condition report showed a deterioration of 2% in the bean crop ratings. The trade was looking for a slight improvement. The soybean export report came out better than expected at 14.1 million bushels. In the overnight trade corn closed up 5 cents, beans were up 3 cents and wheat closed 5 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning as the market draws support from the lower crop ratings reported yesterday afternoon.
7-6-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 9 TO 11 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 28 TO 32 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 5 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents lower on Thursday as traders went into the long July 4th weekend very cautiously. Since the acreage and stocks reports released last Tuesday, corn prices have dropped 29 cents on old crop and 40 cents on new crop. The stronger US dollar and the higher acreage reports have kept the markets on the defensive. Corn export sales came out on Thursday with much better than expected numbers but was not enough to override the overall bearish sentiment. The soybean market closed 15 cents lower on Thursday as lower crude oil prices, a stronger dollar and weaker equities markets all added to the downward pressure on soybean prices. Strong export sales of 7.1 million bushels were not enough to ward off all of the other negative influences in the marketplace. Good rains over the weekend, along with sharply lower crude oil prices and and forecasts calling for normal temperatures and rainfall over the next 6 to 10 days have the markets on the defensive again this morning. In the overnight trade corn closed down 9 cents, beans were 26 cents lower and wheat closed down 5 cents. Poor economic performance on the job front in the US has put pressure on crude oil prices and has spilled over into commodities this morning.
7-2-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 18 TO 20 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents higher on Wednesday as a weaker dollar and fund buying helped to stimulate the markets after the bearish acreage report released on Tuesday. Weather forecasts also helped to raise prices as new talk surfaced about a possible high pressure ridge developing across the western Midwest for later next week. If it happens, it will bring less rainfall and much warmer temperatures into that region. It was reported yesterday that China was going to start releasing their corn reserves next week in areas where supplies have become tight. Corn prices in some provinces in China have risen as much as 13% during June. The soybean market closed 41 cents higher on Wednesday as traders became increasingly concerned about hte tightness of bean supplies. South Korea and China continue to buy beans from the U.S. Forecasters talk of a building high pressure ridge over major growing areas of the U.S. next week also added to the sharp jump in soybean prices yesterday. There is talk out of Brazil that farmers may plant more acres to soybeans next season. The lower input costs for beans and the recent runnup in prices have some thinking of increasing soy production by as much as 10%. In the overnight trade corn closed down 6 cents, beans were 16 cents lower and wheat closed down 3 cents. Look for the markets this morning to open in line with the overnight settlements.
6-25-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 1/2 cents lower on Wednesday as weather conditions continue to be nearly ideal for crop development. The much needed growing degree units are finally accumulating and helping to push the late planted crops along. Actually GDD units have caught up with last year after getting off to a very slow start. On Tuesday of next week USDA will release their stocks and acreage reports. Traders are looking for corn stocks to come out around 4 billion bushels as of June 1st and the corn acreage number to be between 83 to 84 million acres planted. The soybean market closed 6 cents higher on Wednesday in a day of choppy trade. The tightness in the old crop bean supplies are sustaining nearby values. It looks like beans will remain relatively tight right up until late September this year as even the beans in the Delta and southern regions got planted late this spring. Weather in the Midwest is nearly ideal for bean growth but the hot and dry conditions in the deep south are stressing the soybean crop there. In the overnight trade corn closed down 2 1/2 cents, beans were up 4 cents and wheat closed down 5 cents. Look for the markets to open mixed this morning with some evening of positions prior to the June 30th reports expected in the coming days.
6-24-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents higher on Tuesday after the recent sharp decline in prices. Funds have reduced their positions by 50,000 contracts over the past week of trading. This has sent cash prices down by 55 cents in recent days. It was nice to see that the markets were actually able to close on a higher note. Weather forecasts continue to call for warmer and drier conditions across the Midwest which is great for crop development. The southern belt and Delta regions will more than likely stay hotter and drier than normal but the heat and moisture in other areas will be extremely beneficial.The soybean market closed 27 1/2 cents higher on Tuesday as stronger outside markets and a weaker dollar supported soybean prices. This was a welcome rebound after the big setback in prices experienced over the past couple of weeks. The trade will now be focussing their attention on the June 30th acreage and stocks reports. The trade remains concerned that ending stocks this year could drop down to a mere 75 million bushels which would be the lowest level in decades. In the overnight trade corn closed unchanged, beans were down a penny and wheat closed up 4 cents. Look for choppy price action in the markets going into the June 30th reports.
6-23-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STAEDY TO 1 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 12 TO 15 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT 1 TO 3 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 14 cents on Monday as the stock market and energies market both were sharply lower. A stronger dollar yesterday also weighed on grain prices. Warmer temperatures across the corn belt are pushing the crops along nicely. Export inspections came out better than expected yesterday at 38.1 million bushels with Japan being the featured buyer.Crop conditions remained unchanged on Monday's report coming out at 70% good to excellent. The soybean market closed 27 1/2 cents lower yesterday as all outside markets were lower and funds were sellers again on Monday. The latest weather forecasts are deemed to be very favorable for crop development. Monday's export inspections came out better than expected at 13.4 million bushels. Bean planting progress was reported to be 91% complete vs 87% for last week. Illinois lags behind at only 79% complete. The bean crop is now rated at 67% good to excellent nationwide. In the overnight trade corn closed unchanged, beans were up 13 cents and wheat closed 4 cents higher. Look for the markets to open in line with the overnight settlements.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 10 TO 12 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 12 TO 15 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents lower on Friday as a stronger dollar has kept the market prices on the defensive of late. Funds have continued in a liquidation mode as the seasonal trend works lower. On Friday, Informa released their latest acreage estimates. They estimated that 83.1 million acres of corn were planted this spring. That's 1.9 million acres less than USDA's last estimate of 85 million acres. On June 30th USDA will update their acreage and stocks estimates. The soybean market closed 35 cents lower on Friday as negativism took over the marketplace. Informa came out with their soybean acreage estmate of 78.8 million acres which was 2.8 million acres higher than USDA's March estimate of 76. The traders will be anxiously awaiting to see if thses numbers are confirmed on the June 30th reports. Talks of Chinese soybean cancellations continued to surface last week which has also pressured soybean prices but strong exports and good crush numbers continue to tighten old crop supplies. In the overnight trade corn and beans closed 11 cents lower and wheat was down 9 1/2 cents. The weather outlook this week calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation. Some are suggesting that extreme heat may be on the way. The markets will find support if this materializes.
6-19-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - STEADY
WHEAT - 2 TO 4 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents lower on Thursday as the corn market continues in a liquidation phase. Weather conditions call for much warmer temperatures in the 6 to 10 picture which is just what the crop needs now. Informa will release their estimates on acreage and stocks this morning. Traders are looking for a reduction in corn planted acreage of 1.0 to 1.5 million acres. Corn export sales numbers came out at 45 million bushels which was higher than expected. South Korea and Japan were the main buyers. The soybean market closed 7 1/2 cents higher yesterday in the July futures while the new crop beans closed 6 1/2 cents lower. Old crop beans continue strong on good demand and dwindling supplies. New crop beans remain under pressure from additional acreage swings away from corn and into soy. Export sales yesterday came out better than expected at 9.2 million bushels. Featured buyers for the week were China and Mexico. Informa will release acreage estimates today with soybean acres expected to increase by up to 2 million acres. In the overnight trade corn closed 1 1/2 cents higher, beans were up 1/2 cent and wheat closed 4 cents higher. Look for the markets to open in line with the overnight settlements and then react to the Informa numbers after they are released.
6-18-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 1 TO 2 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 1 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 cents higher on Wednesday after closing lower for the past three trading sessions. The corn prices have dropped 34 cents in the past couple of days and were due for a close on the positive side. The market is currently trying to find some bullish news to support prices. The June 30th acreage report could give the corn market that rebound if a larger reduction in planted acreage comes from that report. The outside markets, weather forecasts and the stronger dollar have led price direction. Heavy liquidation on the part of the funds has also driven markets lower the past few days. The soybean market closed 5 cents higher on Wednesday as the funds returned to the marketplace purchasing nearly 3000 bean contracts. Heavy rains in parts of the Midwest, further delayng the planting of beans, helped to stimulate interest in the soybean market yesterday. The tight old crop stock situation will continue to steer market direction until the new crop can be harvested. Any weather problems this summer will only add to the nervousness in the marketplace. In the overnight trade corn closed down 3 cents, beans were 2 1/2 cents lower and wheat closed up 2 cents. Look for the markets to be choppy today with prices expected to be well supported at all lower levels
6-17-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - STEADY
BEANS - 2 TO 3 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 2 cents lower on Tuesday as favorable weather for the next two weeks will allow for good growing conditions across the Midwest. Monday night's report showed that 70% of the nations corn crop was rated good to excellent comapred to only 57% last year.In the past 23 years, only 7 times has the crop been rated higher. Traders, however, are looking for a reduction in corn planted acres of between 1.5 to 2.0 million acres now that we have surpassed the June 15 th planting threshold. USDA will likely have to reduce corn planted acreage below 85 million in their next report to be released on June 30th. The soybean market closed 4 cents higher on Tuesday in a slight turnaround from the sharply lower closes on both Friday and Monday. The trade is anticipating that as many as 2 million acres more soybeans could be planted this year. Informa will release their acreage estimates later this week. USDA will release their acreage and stocks numbers on June 30th. There is still nearly 3.5 million acres of soybeans yet to be planted in Illinois and Indiana. Yield reductions of 1/2 bushel per day can be expected for beans planted after June 20th. In the overnight trade corn closed unchanged, beans were down 4 cents and wheat closed 6 cents lower. Look for the markets to trade on both sides of the close today with prices to be well supported on any setbacks.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 3 TO 5 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 13 TO 17 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 5 TO 7 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 19 1/2 cents lower on Monday as speculators liquidated postions in a big way. Continuing strength in the US Dollar and lower crude oil prices helped to pave the way for the sharply lower commodity prices yesterday. USDA's crop condition reports showed a 1% improvement in the nations corn crop which is now rated at 70% good to excellent. One year ago the crop was only rated at 57%. Current weather conditions and forecasts for warmer temperatures will be ideal for the progression of the crops. The soybean market closed 48 1/2 cents lower on Monday as continued liquidation plagued the marketplace. Funds sold over 6000 contracts of soybeans yesterday as the stock market dropped 200 points and the other outside markets were also much lower. Weekly export inspections came in better than expected yesterday at 12.5 million bushels. USDA reported planting progress at 87% complete which was pretty much in line with expectations. This still leaves nearly 10 million acres of soybeans yet to be planted. The soybean crop is currently rated at 66% good to excellent which is 10 points better than this time last year. In the overnight trade corn closed up 4 cents, beans were 17 cents higher and wheat closed up 6 cents. This morning look for the markets to open higher and possibly trade on both sides of the close during the session.
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 6 TO 8 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 20 TO 25 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 10 TO 12 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed down 15 1/2 cents on Friday as weather forecasts improved to allow good growing conditions to exist over the next week. Profit taking was also noted in the marketplace ahead of the weekend. A stronger US Dollar and lower crude oil prices also weighed on values. Export inspections will be out later this morning with USDA expected to show between 32 to 37 million bushels of corn exports. This afternoon the weekly crop progress report will be released with traders looking for an improvement in the corn crop by 2 to 3%. The soybean market closed 21 1/2 cents lower on Friday as profit taking was evident in the marketplace. Despite the sharply lower close on Friday, soybeans still managed to end the week 12 cents higher. The chinese may now be looking more to South America for their beans as rumors are that they may have purchased between 4 to 6 cargos of beans out of Brazil and Argentina. Export inspections are believed to come out between 6 to 11 million bushels on this mornings report. The first crop rating on soybeans will be released this afternoon with traders expecting the bean crop to be rated 66 to 69% good to excellent. The crop is now expected to be near 86% planted. In the overnight trade corn closed down another 7 1/2 cents, beans were 24 cents lower and wheat closed down 12 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning as the stronger US Dollar continues to weigh on prices.
6-11-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
BEANS - 10 TO 14 CENTS HIGHER
WHEAT - 4 TO 6 CENTS HIGHER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 8 cents lower after opening higher in response to the USDA Supply-Demand report. Strength in the US Dollar weakened buying sentiment. USDA numbers came out pretty much in line with traders expectations. Ending stocks came out right in line with estimates at 1.6 billion bushels. Corn yields were lowered by 2 bushels per acre now at 153.4. Feed use dropped 100 million bushels for next year resulting in a projected carryout of 1.09 billion bushels for the 09-10 crop year. Corn acres were left unchanged on this report. Traders will be looking for some reduction in corn acres on the June report. The soybean market closed 2 1/2 cents higher on Wednesday following the supply-demand report. The USDA report showed no surprises as old crop carryout declined from 130 to 110 million bushels, pretty much in line with expectations. This reflects the tightest carryout since 1983. Crush and exports both increased 10 million bushels resulting in the lower ending stocks figure. USDA is still forecasting a 42.6 bushel per acre soybean yield even after last years late planted soybean crop yielded only 39.6 BPA. In the overnight trade corn closed 4 cents higher, beans were up 14 cents and wheat closed 6 cents higher. Look for the markets to open higher this morning but struggle to hold on to early gains.
06-08-09
OPENING CALLS : CORN - 5 TO 7 CENTS LOWER
BEANS - 8 TO 10 CENTS LOWER
WHEAT - 11 TO 13 CENTS LOWER
Good Morning,
Corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents lower on Friday as traders expected some planting progress to continue to be made over the weekend. A stronger US Dollar aided in the drop of commodity prices. A report released on Friday showed an improvement in the number of job losses during May which helped to strengthen the dollar. Ethanol margins are starting to improve leading some to believe that investors will begin to pour money back into the commodities again. The soybean market closed 4 1/2 cents lower on Friday as traders ligthened up their positions prior to the weekend. This afternoon USDA will be estimating the planting progress for soybeans. Right now traders are looking for between 75 to 80% of the nations bean crop to be planted as of Sunday night. Last year by this time 76% of the soybeans were planted but the average is 87%. Weather forecasts continue to put rain in their outlook about every 2 to 3 days making it hard to finish with planting. In the overnight trade corn closed down 6 cents,beans were 8 cents lower and wheat closed down 12 cents. Look for the markets to open lower this morning in line with the overnight settlements.
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