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MARKET TREND Weaker CH, down 1, SH, up 1,WH, down 2

February 13, 2018 07:02 AM
  • MARKET TREND—Weaker: CH, -$.0075; SH, -$.02; WH, -$.0250; KWH, -$.0225. 

·       MACRO:  Futures suggest the market is heading into another day of volatility.  ASIA—Mostly higher:  Nikkei, -0.65%; Shanghai, +1.00%; Hang Seng, 1.29%.  EUROPE: Mostly lower: DAX, -0.37%; FTSE, +0.01%; CAC, -0.38%.  WALL STREET Futures—volatility continues, futures down a fair amount —DOW, -179;  S&P, -17.00; NAS, -44.00EXTERNALS: $ Index-.486 @ 89.610; Feb Gold+$5.40 @ $1,330; Mar crude: -$.05 @ $59.24

  • T-storm Weather: In Argentina, dry weather continues through Fri., accompanied by 5 days of heat starting Wed.-Thu.  A couple waves of energy pass Feb. 17-21, triggering scattered thunderstorms & ending heat with 0.50"-1.00" most common.  In Brazil, a few thunderstorms linger in an arc from western Mato Grosso through Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo this week.  A wetter period follows from Sun.-Tue. forward in central & northern areas, producing above-normal rain of 2.50"-5.00" over Feb. 18-24.
  • CH, down $.0075 @ $3.6625; CK, dn $.0075 @ $3.74.  And, the funds were even larger buyers Monday, estimated 20 K        
  • SH, dn $.02 @ $9.9975; SK, dn $.02 @ $10.1050.  Funds: bot 15 K SB, 12 K SBM, even SBO.Board Crush: $1.36, +$.11; LY: $.77
  • WH, down $.0275 @ $4.6125; WK, down $.0275 @ $4.7325.  Active fund buying, pegged at 12 K    

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, rainfall for corn over Feb. 17-21 is important because adrier period likely follows as new areas of surface-level high pressure pass.  Note that 1.75"-2.50 is the normal rainfall total of the next two weeks

  • Consultant: Argentina corn crop estimate is lowered by 1.0 MMT to 38.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias going forward.  Rainfall over the weekend was disappointing and the forecast does not look favorable
  • ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 2.312 bbu vs. USDA at 2.352 bbu
  • USDA reported Monday that U.S. 17/18 corn exports through Feb. 8 totaled 618 mbu vs. 916 mbu last year (-33%)

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, rainfall for soybeans over Feb. 17-21 is importantbecause a drier period likely follows as new areas of surface-level high pressure pass.  Note: 1.75"-2.50 is the normal rainfall total of the next two weeks

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean production estimated is lowered 1.0 MMT to 50.0 with a lower bias going forward

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 586 mbu vs. USDA at 530 mbu

·       ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 186 mbu vs. USDA at 176 mbu

  • T-storm Weather: U.S. HRW wheat will experience some rain and snow through the end of the month as systems pass every 3-5 days starting Thu.-Fri.; best chance for meaningful totals is along southern & eastern fringes of production

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLH18-$.05 @ $59.24; EBJ, +$.14 @ $62.73; EBJ-QCLJ+$.24RBH-.0029;NGH, +.055; HOH, +.0045

·       On Monday, cash ethanol markets were mostly higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.405, up $0.015; Basis to Chicago—New York, +10 ½; Gulf, +10 ¼; Dallas, +7; Tampa, +17 ½; and LA, +22

·       On Monday, ethanol RINs eased: 2016’s down ½ at 65-66; 2017’s fell ½ to 66 ¾-68 ¼; & 2018’s off ½ to 67 ½-68 ½

·       The Mar RBOB/Mar ethanol spread open the week giving up $.0337, falling to+$.2615/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      ​               

  • Choice boxed beef values increased $1.72 on Monday to $208.24, but are still $1.19 lower compared to last week
  • 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $0.24 v. last week at $126.15/cwt, and is up $6.40 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.97 on Monday to $75.55, but is down $3.45 vs. a week ago

  • Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.10/cwt vs. last week’s $48.12, last month’s $49.13 & last year’s $43.12

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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