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MARKET TREND Mostly Weaker CH down 1, SF down 8, WH down 2

December 7, 2017 07:39 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mostly Weaker: CH: down $.0075; SF: down $.07; WH: down $.0025; KWH: up $.0050. 

·       MACRO.  Some  market uneasiness over a possible U.S. government shut-down, despite recent passage of the Senate tax bill.  ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +1.45%; Shanghai, -0.67%; Hang Seng, +0.28%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.26%; FTSE, +0.01%;CAC, +0.12%.  WALL STREET—Futures are mixed—DOW, -11; S&P, +1.75; NAS, +15.75EXTERNALS: $ Index+.1289 @ 93.710; Gold-$8.40 @ $1,254; Jan crude: +$0.19 @ $56.15/bl.  Del’y: SBM, 169; SBO, 128; C, 796; ETOH, 0; HRW, 1; SRW, 90

  • T-storm Weather: Argentina will be under a high pressure ridge by the end  of this week and any rainfall will be erratic at best prior to the next moisture event and will be accompanied by warm temperatures.  The ridge will migrate into southern Brazil next week but significant crop stress is not expected.  2-4” rain amounts are forseen in Center-West Brazil and 4-8” in the more northern regions
  • CH, down $.0075 @ $3.52; CK, down $.0050 @ $3.6050.  The funds sold an estimated 2 K on Wednesday       
  • SF, down $.07 @ $9.9575; SH, down $.0725 @ $10.0750.  Funds: sold 4 SB, 5 SBO, bot 3 SBM.  Board Crush: $1.15, +$.01; LY, $.73 
  • WH, down $.0025 @ $4.25; WK, down $.0025 @ $4.3775.  Fund selling said to have been 1 K yesterday

CORN/SORGHUM

  • Corn export sales released at 7:30 am:  trade expecting 31-47 mbu with 26 ½ per week needed
  • Milo export sales—2.4/week needed which recent activity a robust 10.7 per week
  • This year (17/18) could see the U.S. share of world corn trade at the  2nd lowest ever, 32.3% (12/13: 19.4%)

·       March corn closed $.04 above off its contract low of $3.48 ¾ and 7 ¾ cents below the CH17 12/06 close of $3.60 ½

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Soybean Export Sales Est—trade looking for 37-55; 24.7/week needed; recent sales down 40% from LY @ 37.5

·       Product Export Sales Est—100-300 K MT SBM expected (143 needed); oil seen at 5-22 with 17.4/wk needed

  • Wheat Export Sales Est—9-17 expected; 14.2/week needed with recent buying slightly below “average” at 15.2/wk
  • Argentine crop concerns notwithstanding, South America should begin crop year with 60%/300 mbu MORE beans
  • Today’s SF18’s $9.99 close was $.45 below the 12/6/16 close of $10.4775  
  • Factoid:  yield “gap” between U.S. and foreign SB producers has increased from 8.0 bpa during the 08-11 crop years to 11.1 bushels/acre the past 4 growing seasons 

ENERGY

·       Firmer: CLF18+$0.19 @ $56.15; EBG +$0.35 @ $61.57; EBG-QCLF+$0.17; RBF,+.0129; NGF, -.091; HOF, +.0070

·       EIA Report: crude oil (trade), -5.6 (-2.4); Gasoline, +6.8 (+1.7); Distillates, +1.7 (+1.0)

·       Ethanol production rises 43 K bpd to 1.108 million (1.068 estimate). Stocks soar 500 K to 22.54 mb (22.1 est).

·       Cash ethanol markets were off sharply with Chicago down $.0415 and quoted at $1.3135; Basis to Chicago mixed—New York, +9.90; Gulf, +7.90 ½; Dallas, +4.15; Tampa, +17.15 and LA, +18.65

·       Ethanol RINs weakened: 2016’s dn 4 ¼ at 76 ½-82 ½; 2017’s off 4 1/8 to 77-83; & 2018’s also off 4 ½ to 77-83

·       The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread gave up $.0245 at mid-week, dropping to+$.34390/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               ​;                      

  • Choice boxed beef values were pff $2.68 yesterday, slipping to $206.40
  • February live cattle futures closed at $118.90 on Wednesday, off $1.62 ½

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value dropped $2.03 yesterday to $82.75

  • CME Lean Hog Index increased $0.50 Wednesday to $64.85.  December futures are $0.10 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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