HIGHLIGHTS
-
MARKET TREND—Firmer: CZ: up $.0050; SF: up $.05; WZ: up $.0050; KWZ: up $.0225
· MACRO. Overseas markets are mostly higher, although gains have been pared ahead of the U.S. holiday on Thursday. ASIA—Higher: Nikkei, +0.48%; Shanghai, +0.59%; Hang Seng, +0.62%. EUROPE: Mostly lower: DAX, -0.37%; FTSE, +0.33%; CAC, +0.00%. WALL STREET—Futures are mostly higher—DOW, +26 S&P, +0.75; NAS, -1.25. EXTERNALS: $ Index: -.102 @ 93.775; Gold: +$2.00 @ $1,284; Jan crude: +$0.99 @ $57.82/bl.
-
T-storm Weather: Despite some thunderstorms, most grain and oilseed areas of Argentina will be drier than normal over the next 10 days; wettest in driest areas of the north where near-normal rainfall is most likely. Therefore, more rain would be ideal given below-normal totals over the last 14- and 30-day periods, and that ~1.33" is normal of the next 10 days. In Brazil, multiple cool fronts trigger heavy thunderstorms at times over the next two weeks as near- and above-normal rainfall continue
-
CZ, up $.0050 @ $3.4550; CH, up $.0025 @ $3.5650. Fund activity was said to be even on Tuesday
-
SF, up $.05 @ $9.94; SH, up $.05 @ $10.0525. Funds: Sold 1 SB, 2 SBM and bot 3 SBO. Board Crush: $.92;-$.03; LY, $.72 ¾
-
WZ, up $.0050 @ $4.2525; WH, up $.0125 @ $4.4250. The funds bought back the 4 K they sold on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
-
U.S. corn exports through mid-November were down 44% vs. last year but very near the pace seen in 2015
-
T-storm Weather: Rainfall was lacking in key corn areas of central and northern Argentina, where topsoil and subsoil drying are underway from less to much-less than 0.50” over the last two weeks
· Consultant: In Argentina, condition of the early planted corn is rated good and the most advanced corn is about at the 5-7 leaf phase. If current dryness persists for several more weeks, it could impact pollination of earliest planted corn
· Ethanol margins: $0.21 per gallon—down vs. $0.27 last week and well below $0.49 in 2016. EIA report at 9:30 am CST
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Brazilian farmers made good soybean planting progress across all areas last week. According to Ag Rural, the 2017/18 Brazilian soybean crop is now 73% planted, which is equal to last year & ahead of the 5-year avg. of 68%
· T-storm Weather: Widespread rainfall of 2.50”-5.00” affects most soybean areas of Brazil over the next two weeks (with the possible exception of southern Rio Grande do Sul), maintaining & increasing soil moisture across a wide area
-
ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports remains at 10-15 mbu per week
· T-storm Weather: Scattered rain across eastern Australia production areas over next 10 days could hamper harvest
ENERGY
· Higher: CLF18, +$0.99 @ $57.82; EBF, +$0.57 @ $63.14; EBF-QCLF, -$0.41; RBF, +.0028; NGF, -.013; HOF, +.0139
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -1.5 (-6.4); Gasoline, +0.1 (+0.9); Distillates, -1.4 (-1.7)
· A mixed trend persisted in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago is quoted at $1.3775, down $0.0025; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11 ¼; Gulf, +6 ¼; Dallas, +5 ¼; Tampa, +18 ¾; and LA, +17 ¼
· Ethanol RINs firmed on Tue.: 2016’s up 1 to 89-91; 2017’s gained ¾ to 90-91 ½; & 2018’s climbed 1 ¼ to 90-91 ½
· The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread lost $.0177 on Tuesday, closing at +$.3634/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
-
Choice boxed beef values increased $2.45 on Tuesday to $208.63, but are still down $2.04 vs. a week ago
-
Light-to-moderate trade surfaced on Tue. with prices in the South pegged at $118, which is $1 lower than last week
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.71 on Tuesday to $80.07, and is $1.05 lower vs. last week
-
CME Lean Hog Index was $0.42 lower on Tue. at $64.41. December futures fell $1.325 & are $3.71 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather