HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—A tad firmer: CH, +$.0075; SH, +$.0050; WH, +$.0050; KWH, +$.0025. USDA reports at 11:00 am CST
· MACRO. Asia/Europe follow U.S. guidance, higher. JPMorganChase & Wells Fargo out with quartery earnings this morning. ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, -0.24%; Shanghai, +0.12%; Hang Seng, +0.94%. EUROPE: Firmer: DAX, +0.24%; FTSE, +0.22%;CAC, +0.31%. WALL STREET—Upward—DOW futures, +105; S&P, +6.25; NAS, +8.50. EXTERNALS: $ Index: -.478 @ 91.130; Feb Gold: +$10 @ $1,332; Feb crude: -$0.42 @ $63.38. Deliveries: SBM, 47; SBO, 46; SB, 63; RR, 10; ETOH, 0
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T-storm Weather: In Argentina, widespread rain alleviates drought in most areas, especially with northward extent from thunderstorms that break heat Sat.-Sun. Five to seven days of drying follow, after which thunderstorms return to at least central and northern areas, likely breaking drought north, but less-so south. Multiple periods of thunderstorms affect southern Brazil and Paraguay over the next two weeks as thunderstorms form along the southern periphery of a large upper-level high
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CH, up $.0075 @ $3.4950; CK, up $.0050 @ $3.5750. Managed money accounts were even in pre-report trading
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SH, up $.0050 @ $9.5050; SK, up $.0075 @ $9.6175. Funds: Sold 4 K SB, 4 K SBM, 3 K SBO. Board Crush: $1.03, -6; LY, $.78
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WH, up $.0050 @ $4.3375; WK, up $.0050 @ $4.4725. The funds also went home even in wheat yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
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USDA Grain Stocks report 11:00 am CST: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks is 12.429 bbu vs. 12.386 last year
· USDA Crop Production report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn crop is 14.580 bbu compared to 14.578 in December
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn 17/18 carryout is 2.437 bbu—steady with December
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T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a strong wave of energy and cool front trigger thunderstorms Sat.-Sun., producing widespread rainfall of 0.50”-1.00” in southern corn growing areas, & 1.25”-2.50” in central and northern areas
· Consultant: With low domestic corn prices in Brazil, there is risk some safrinha(double crop) corn will not be planted
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. soybean stocks is 3.179 bbu vs. 2.898 last year
· USDA Crop Production report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean crop is 4.430 bbu compared to 4.425 in December
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean 17/18 carryout is 479 mbu vs. 445 in December
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T-storm Weather: Heavy rain from Sunday forward improves soil moisture for soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
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USDA Winter Wheat Seedings report: Avg. trade est.; HRW, 22.4 mil acre (23.4 in ‘17); SRW, 5.6 (5.7), White, 3.5 (3.5)
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USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. wheat stocks is 1.851 bbu vs. 2.077 last year
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat 17/18 carryout is 959 mbu vs. 960 in December
ENERGY
· Lower: CLG18, -$.42@ $63.38; EBH, -$0.12 @ $69.14; EBH-QCLH, +$0.27; RBG,-.0060; NGG, +.010; HOG, -.0001
· On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.275, up $0.03; Basis to Chicago—New York, +16 ¼; Gulf, +12 ½; Dallas, +13 ½; Tampa, +28 ½; and LA, +29 ½
· On Thursday, ethanol RINs fell: 2016’s off 2 ¼ at 61-65; 2017’s eased 1 to 64-66 ½; and 2018’s down ¾ to 64-67
· The Feb RBOB/Feb ethanol spread shed $.0187 on Thursday, dropping to+$.49000/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
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Choice boxed beef values eased 99-cents on Thursday to $209.07, but are still up 40-cents vs. a week ago
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Dressed steer weight for week end Dec. 30: 902 lbs, down 1 lb v. last week, 903 for the 4-week avg. and 900 last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 86-cents on Thursday to $77.84, and is 54-cents higher vs. last week
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CME Lean Hog Index firmed $1.18 on Thu. to $68.46. February futures declined $1.55, but are $2.515 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather