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MARKET TREND A tad firmer CH, up 1, SH, unchanged,WH, up 1

January 12, 2018 06:58 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—A tad firmer: CH, +$.0075; SH, +$.0050; WH, +$.0050;  KWH, +$.0025.  USDA reports at 11:00 am CST

·       MACRO. Asia/Europe follow U.S. guidance, higher.  JPMorganChase & Wells Fargo out with quartery earnings this morning.  ASIA—Mostly higher:  Nikkei, -0.24%; Shanghai, +0.12%; Hang Seng, +0.94%.  EUROPE:  Firmer: DAX, +0.24%; FTSE, +0.22%;CAC, +0.31%.  WALL STREET—Upward—DOW futures, +105; S&P, +6.25; NAS, +8.50EXTERNALS: $ Index-.478 @ 91.130; Feb Gold: +$10 @ $1,332; Feb crude: -$0.42 @ $63.38.  Deliveries:  SBM, 47; SBO, 46; SB, 63; RR, 10; ETOH, 0 

  • T-storm Weather: In Argentina, widespread rain alleviates drought in most areas, especially with northward extent from thunderstorms that break heat Sat.-Sun.  Five to seven days of drying follow, after which thunderstorms return to at least central and northern areas, likely breaking drought north, but less-so south.  Multiple periods of thunderstorms affect southern Brazil and Paraguay over the next two weeks as thunderstorms form along the southern periphery of a large upper-level high
  • CH, up $.0075 @ $3.4950; CK, up $.0050 @ $3.5750.  Managed money accounts were even in pre-report trading                   
  • SH, up $.0050 @ $9.5050; SK, up $.0075 @ $9.6175.  Funds: Sold 4 K SB, 4 K SBM, 3 K SBO.  Board Crush: $1.03, -6; LY, $.78
  • WH, up $.0050 @ $4.3375; WK, up $.0050 @ $4.4725.  The funds also went home even in wheat yesterday  

CORN/SORGHUM

  • USDA Grain Stocks report 11:00 am CST: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks is 12.429 bbu vs. 12.386 last year

·       USDA Crop Production report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn crop is 14.580 bbu compared to 14.578 in December

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn 17/18 carryout is 2.437 bbu—steady with December

  • T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a strong wave of energy and cool front trigger thunderstorms Sat.-Sun., producing widespread rainfall of 0.50”-1.00” in southern corn growing areas, & 1.25”-2.50” in central and northern areas

·       Consultant: With low domestic corn prices in Brazil, there is risk some safrinha(double crop) corn will not be planted   

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. soybean stocks is 3.179 bbu vs. 2.898 last year

·       USDA Crop Production report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean crop is 4.430 bbu compared to 4.425 in December

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean 17/18 carryout is 479 mbu vs. 445 in December

  • T-storm Weather: Heavy rain from Sunday forward improves soil moisture for soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
  • USDA Winter Wheat Seedings report: Avg. trade est.; HRW, 22.4 mil acre (23.4 in ‘17); SRW, 5.6 (5.7), White, 3.5 (3.5)
  • USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. wheat stocks is 1.851 bbu vs. 2.077 last year

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat 17/18 carryout is 959 mbu vs. 960 in December

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLG18-$.42@ $63.38; EBH, -$0.12 @ $69.14; EBH-QCLH+$0.27; RBG,-.0060; NGG, +.010; HOG, -.0001

·       On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.275, up $0.03; Basis to Chicago—New York, +16 ¼; Gulf, +12 ½; Dallas, +13 ½; Tampa, +28 ½; and LA, +29 ½

·       On Thursday, ethanol RINs fell: 2016’s off 2 ¼ at 61-65; 2017’s eased 1 to 64-66 ½; and 2018’s down ¾ to 64-67

·       The Feb RBOB/Feb ethanol spread shed $.0187 on Thursday, dropping to+$.49000/gallon  

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                ​     

  • Choice boxed beef values eased 99-cents on Thursday to $209.07, but are still up 40-cents vs. a week ago
  • Dressed steer weight for week end Dec. 30: 902 lbs, down 1 lb v. last week, 903 for the 4-week avg. and 900 last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 86-cents on Thursday to $77.84, and is 54-cents higher vs. last week

  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $1.18 on Thu. to $68.46.  February futures declined $1.55, but are $2.515 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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