HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mostly Lower: CN: Down $.0275; SN: Down$.0550; WN: Up $.0050; KWN: Down $.0075
· MACRO: So much for Brexit, onward and upward; global markets are sharply higher this morning. ASIA: The Nikkei closes up 1.59%; the Hang Seng gains 1.31% and Shanghai rises .69%. EUROPE: CAC leads with a 2.66% gain at mid-day; the Britain’s FTSE is 2.34% higher and the DAX, up 1.83%. WALL STREET: Futures indicate a higher start with the DOW up 97; the S&P is up 11.75 and NAS, +28 ¾. OUTSIDE MARKETS: The $ Index is 1/3rd of a point lower at 95.995; Gold is $2.1 higher at $1,317 and August crude is up $.57 @ $48.42
· T-storm Weather: A cool front triggers a few thunderstorms within the Corn Belt later this week, but the brunt of organized rain through Friday focuses along the western edge of coolness in the central Plains. Attention then turns to a wave (or waves) that float into the central U.S. Friday-Sunday. We continue to forecast 1.00"-2.00" of rain from Kansas through the Delta & southern Corn Belt overFriday-Sunday, but do not expect to have this portion of the forecast resolved until later today or Thursday
· CN, Down $.0275 @ $3.8250; CZ, Down $.0250 @ $3.9175. The funds sold an estimated 5 K on Tuesday
· SN, Down $.0550 @ $11.45; SX, Down $.07 @ $11.1325. Fund activity: bought 8 K SB; 7 K SBM and sold 3 K SBO
· WN, Up $.0050 @ $4.4425; WU,Up $.050 @ $4.5775. The funds sold 3 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM     ;
· June 30 USDA reports: Trade pegging U.S. corn acreage at 92.8 mil (93.6 in March); June 1 corn stocks est. 4.520 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. corn exports to range from 47-53 mbu per week over the next month, which is 7.5 mil more than last year’s average and continues to be record high for July. The latest 5-year average remains at 31 mbu per week
· Consultant: Brazil corn crop estimate is unchanged this week at 75.0 MMT. Mato Grosso is the largest safrinha (double crop) producing state and harvest was is 16.6% complete as of June 23
· Ethanol margins: $0.39 per gallon—up from 0.28 last week and above $0.30 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· June 30 USDA reports: Trade pegging U.S. soybean acre at 83.9 mil (82.2 in March); June 1 bean stocks est. 0.831 bbu
· ATI Research: Expect this week’s U.S. soybean exports to be in the high teens with low to mid-20s likely beyond that
· Consultant: Brazil soybean crop estimate unch this week at 95.5 MMT; Argentina estimate also steady at 56.0 MMT
· June 30 USDA reports: Trade pegging U.S. wheat acres at 49.7 mil (49.6 in March); June 1 wheat stocks est. 0.983 bbu
· ATI Research: Expect near-term U.S. all wheat exports to range from 15-20 mbu per week vs. 14.5 last year
· ATI Research: North Dakota spring wheat headed is 60%, the 2nd highest since at least 1995 trailing only 2012 (66%)
ENERGY
· Higher: CLQ16, +$0.57, $48.42; EBQ, +$0.59; EBQ-CLQ, $0.70,-$.03; RBN, +$.0080; NGN, +0.201; HON, +$.0181
· EIA estimates: crude, -2.0 (API: -3.9); Gasoline, unchanged (-0.4); Distillates, unchanged (-0.8)
· Cash ethanol markets were steady to slightly firmer on Tuesday: Chicago and Dallas added ¼; New York up 1/8; Gulf steady; Tampa increased ½; and LA was unchanged at $1.78 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s up 1 3/8 to 87 ½-88 ¼; 2015’s added 1 5/8 to 87 ½-88 ¾; & 2016’s up 1 5/8 to 87 ¼-88 ½
· The July RBOB/July ethanol inverse lost $.0292 on Tuesday to settle at -$.0980 on Monday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values slid another $2.56 on Tuesday to $208.04, and are down $10.11 vs. last week
· Over the past nine trading days, choice boxed beef values have declined $20.30 (8.9%) and are the lowest since May 9
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value rose $2.24 on Tue., is up $2.00 v. last week & highest since Aug. 11, 2015
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.25 higher on Tue. at $84.86. July futures was unchanged and are $1.71 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather